Announcement

Schedule for Ontology & Methodology, 2013

Posted on May 3, 2013 by Mayo

copy-cropped-ampersand-logo-blog1

May 4 (Saturday):

8:30-9:00: Pastries & Coffee (Continental Breakfast) outside of Pamplin 2030

MORNING SESSIONS:

9:00-9:15—Welcome talk
9:15-10:00 Ruetsche: “Method, Metaphysics, and Quantum Theory”
10:00-10:25: Discussion

10:25-10:40 coffee break

10:40-11:05 Shech, “Phase Transitions, Ontology and Earman’s Sound Principle”
11:05-11:20: Discussion

11:20-12:05 Godfrey-Smith, “Evolution and Agency: A Case Study in Ontology and Methodology”
12:05-12:30: Discussion

12:30-1:30 Box Lunch

AFTERNOON SESSIONS:

1:30-1:55: Clatterbuck, “Drift Beyond Wright-Fisher: The Predictive Inequivalency of Drift Models”
1:55-2:10: Discussion

2:10- 2:55: Mayo & Spanos, “Ontology & Methodology in Statistical Modeling”
2:55-3:20: Discussion

3:20-3:30 coffee break

3:30-3:55: Karaca, “The method of robustness analysis and the problem of data-selection at the ATLAS experiment”
3:55-4:10: Discussion

4:10 – 4:55 Patton, “Theory Assessment and Ontological Argument”
4:55-5:20: Discussion

5:20- 5:45 Marcellesi, “Counterfactuals and ‘nonmanipulable’ properties: When bad methodology leads to bad metaphysics (and vice-versa)”
5:45-6:00: Discussion

7:15–DINNER

May 5 (Sunday):

8:30-9:00: Pastries & Coffee (Continental Breakfast) outside of Pamplin 2030

MORNING SESSIONS:

9:00-9:45: Danks, “The Myriad Influences of Goals on Ontology”

9:45-10:10 Discussion

10:10-10:55 Hoover, “The Ontological Status of Shocks and Trends in Macroeconomics”
10:55-11:20: Discussion

11:20-11:35 Coffee break

11:35-12:00  Angner, “Behavioral vs. Neoclassical Economics: A Weberian Analysis”
12:00-12:15: Discussion

12:15-1:45 BREAK FOR LUNCH

AFTERNOON SESSIONS:

1:45-2:30 Woodward, “The Problem of Variable Choice”
2:30-2:55: Discussion

2:55-3:40 Jantzen, “The Algebraic Conception of Natural Kinds”
3:40-4:05: Discussion

4:05-5:15 Overview: Open Discussion & libations

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Coming up: December U-Phil Contributions….

Posted on January 26, 2013 by Mayo

Dear Reader: You were probably* wondering about the December U-Phils (blogging the strong likelihood principle (SLP)). They will be posted, singly or in pairs, over the next few blog entries. Here is the initial call, and the extension. The details of the specific U-Phil may be found here, but also look at the post from my 28 Nov. seminar at the London School of Economics (LSE), which was on the SLP. Posts were to be in relation to either the guest graduate student post by Gandenberger, and/or my discussion/argument and reactions to it. Earlier U-Phils may be found here; and more by searching this blog. ”U-Phil” is short for “you ‘philosophize”.

If you have ideas for future “U-Phils,” post them as comments to this blog or send them to error@vt.edu.

*This is how I see “probability” mainly used in ordinary English, namely as expressing something like “here’s a pure guess made without evidence or with little evidence,” be it sarcastic or quite genuine.

 

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Ontology & Methdology: Second call for Abstracts, Papers

Posted on January 15, 2013 by Mayo

Conference Graphic

Deadline for submission of (abstracts for) contributed papers*:
February 1, 2013

Dates of Conference: May 4-5, 2013
Blacksburg, Va

  Special invited speakers:

David Danks (CMU), Peter Godfrey-Smith (CUNY), Kevin Hoover (Duke), Laura Ruetsche (U. Mich.), James Woodward (Pitt)

Virginia Tech speakers:
Benjamin Jantzen, Deborah Mayo, Lydia Patton, Aris Spanos

*Accommodation costs will be covered for accepted contributed papers.

  • How do scientists’ initial conjectures about the entities and processes under their scrutiny influence the choice of variables, the structure of mature scientific theories, and methods of interpretation of those theories?
  • How do methods of data generation, statistical modeling, and analysis influence the construction and appraisal of theories at multiple levels?
  • How does historical analysis of the development of scientific theories illuminate the interplay between scientific methodology, theory building, and the interpretation of scientific theories?

This conference brings together prominent philosophers of science, biology, cognitive science, causation, economics, and physics with philosophically minded scientists engaged in research into these interconnected methodological and ontological questions.

We invite (extended abstracts for) contributed papers that illuminate these issues as they arise in general philosophy of science, in causal explanation and modeling, in the philosophy of experiment and statistics, and in the history and philosophy of science.

For further information on submitting a paper or extended abstract, please visit the conference website: http://www.ratiocination.org/OM2013/.

Organizers: Benjamin Jantzen, Deborah Mayo, Lydia Patton

Sponsors: The Virginia Tech Department of Philosophy and the Fund for Experimental Reasoning, Reliability, and the Objectivity and Rationality of Science (E.R.R.O.R.)

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Aris Spanos: James M. Buchanan: a scholar, teacher and friend

Posted on January 11, 2013 by Mayo

 ob buchanan0011357770191Aris Spanos
Wilson Schmidt Professor of Economics
Department of Economics, Virginia Tech

Although I have known of James M. Buchanan all of my academic career, I got to known him at a personal level as a colleague and a friend in 2000.

Looking back, our first meeting established the nature of our relationship since then. Jim walked into my office at Virginia Tech, and began to introduce himself. I felt somewhat uncomfortable and interrupted him, saying that I knew who he was. Of course he did not know who I was and asked me what area of economics I have been working in. I replied that I was ‘an econometrician, working with actual data aiming to learn about economic phenomena of interest using statistical modeling and inference’, and I hastened to add that our two areas of expertise were rather far apart. His immediate response took me by surprise: ‘From what I know, one cannot do statistical inference unless one’s data come from random samples, which is not the case in economics’. My reply was equally surprising to him: ‘Jim, where have you been for the last 50 years?’ I went on to elaborate that he was expressing an erroneous view that was held in economics in the 1930s. We spent the rest of that afternoon educating each other about our respective areas of expertise and discussing their potential overlap. Read more »

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James M. Buchanan

Posted on January 10, 2013 by Mayo

James M. Buchanan HeadshotYesterday, our colleague and friend, James Buchanan (Nobel prize-winner: 1986, Economics) died at 93.

From a NY Times obit [that runs a full half page]:

[He] was a leading proponent of public choice theory, which assumes that politicians and government officials, like everyone else, are motivated by self-interest — getting re-elected or gaining more power — and do not necessarily act in the public interest… He argued that their actions could be analyzed, and even predicted, by applying the tools of economics to political science in ways that yield insights into the tendencies of governments to grow, increase spending, borrow money, run large deficits and let regulations proliferate. Read more »

Categories: Announcement, Statistics | Tags: | 6 Comments

Announcement: Prof. Stephen Senn to lead LSE grad seminar: 12-12-12

Posted on December 11, 2012 by Mayo

senncropped1Prof. Stephen Senn, Head of the Competences Center for Methodology and Statistics (CCMS), Luxembourg, will lead our graduate research seminar tomorrow, 12 December (London School of Economics 10-12 T 2.06. (see (LSE) PH500 page on the top of this blog, (background paper for seminar)):

“A statistician is one who prefers true doubts to false certainties.” (Senn)

Professor Senn has been the recipient of national and international awards, including the 1st  George C Challis award for Biostatistics at the University of Florida, and the Bradford Hill Medal of the Royal Statistical Society. He is the author of the monographs

Cross-over Trials in Clinical Research (1993, 2002),

Statistical Issues in Drug Development (1997, 2007)

Dicing with Death (2003)

Prof. Senn is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh and an honorary life member of Statisticians in the Pharmaceutical Industry (PSI) and the International Society for Clinical Biostatistics (ISCB) and has an honorary chair in statistics at University College London .

Senn is also a monthly contributor to this blog on matters of philosophical foundations of statistics and methodology.  Here are some examples:

Stephen Senn: Fooling the Patient: an Unethical Use of Placebo? (Phil/Stat/Med)

Stephen Senn: Randomization, ratios and rationality: rescuing the randomized clinical trial from its critics

Stephen Senn: A Paradox of Prior Probabilities

Guest Blogger. STEPHEN SENN: Fisher’s alternative to the alternative

___________________________

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Rejected post: Nov. Palindrome Winner: Kepler

Posted on December 7, 2012 by Mayo

See Thomas Kepler’s statement and palindrome.

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Announcement: U-Phil Extension: Blogging the Likelihood Principle

Posted on December 6, 2012 by Mayo

U-Phil: I am extending to Dec. 19, 2012 the date for sending me responses to the “U-Phil” call, see initial call, given some requests for more time. The details of the specific U-Phil may be found here, but you might also look at the post relating to my 28 Nov. seminar at the LSE, which is directly on the topic: the infamous (strong) likelihood principle (SLP). ”U-Phil, ” which is short for “you ‘philosophize’” is really just an opportunity to write something .5-1 notch above an ordinary comment (focussed on one or more specific posts/papers, as described in each call): it can be longer (~500-1000 words), and it appears in the regular blog area rather than as a comment.  Your remarks can relate to the guest graduate student post by Gregory Gandenberger, and/or my discussion/argument. Graduate student posts (e.g., attendees of my 28 Nov. LSE seminar?) are especially welcome*. Earlier explemplars of U-Phils may be found here; and more by searching this blog.

Thanks to everyone who sent me names of vintage typewriter repair shops in London, after the airline damage: the “x” is fixed, but the “z” key is still misbehaving.

*Another post of possible relevance to graduate students comes up when searching this blog for  “sex”.

Categories: Announcement, Likelihood Principle, U-Phil | Leave a comment

Normal Deviate’s blog on false discovery rates

Posted on December 2, 2012 by Mayo

There is an interesting guest post by Ryan Tibshirani on the Normal Deviate’s blog comparing the False Discovery Rates (FDR)* associated with different methods of screening for potentially interesting genes (based on p-value assessments). I want to come to this at some point.

*FDR = E(number of null genes called significant/number of genes called significant)

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Announcement: 28 November: My Seminar at the LSE (Contemporary PhilStat)

Posted on November 23, 2012 by Mayo
28 November: (10 – 12 noon):
Mayo: “On Birnbaum’s argument for the Likelihood Principle: A 50-year old error and its influence on statistical foundations”
PH500 Seminar, Room: Lak 2.06 (Lakatos building). 
London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE)

Background reading: PAPER

See general announcement here.

Background to the Discussion: Question: How did I get involved in disproving Birnbaum’s result in 2006?

Answer: Appealing to something called the “weak conditionality principle (WCP)” arose in avoiding a classic problem (arising from mixture tests) described by David Cox (1958), as discussed in our joint paper:

Cox D. R. and Mayo. D. (2010). “Objectivity and Conditionality in Frequentist Inference” in Error and Inference: Recent Exchanges on Experimental Reasoning, Reliability and the Objectivity and Rationality of Science (D Mayo & A. Spanos eds.), CUP 276-304. Read more »

Categories: Announcement, Likelihood Principle, Statistics | 12 Comments

Philosophy of Science Association (PSA) 2012 Program

Posted on November 16, 2012 by Mayo

Here is the program of the Philosophy of Science Association PSA, currently meeting in San Diego (with the History of Science Society HSS). The image (from the program cover) comes from an editions of Kuhn’s (1962) Structure of Scientific Revolutions (50 year anniversary*)

THURSDAY NOVEMBER 15

Session 1 (2-­‐3:30) 

Contributed Papers: Issues for Practice in Medicine and Anthropology
RM: Spinnaker 1

James Krueger (University of Redlands), “Theoretical Health and Medical Practice”

Cecilia Nardini  (University of Milan), “Bias and Conditioning in Sequential Medical Trials”

Inkeri Koskinen (University of Helsinki), “Critical Subjects: Participatory Research Needs to Make Room for Debate”

Chair: Roger Stanev (University of South Florida)

Contributed Papers: Values in Science and Inductive Risk
RM: Marina 6 Read more »

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Seminars at the London School of Economics: Contemporary Problems in Philosophy of Statistics

Posted on November 7, 2012 by Mayo
As a visitor of the Centre for Philosophy of Natural and Social Science (CPNSS) at the London School of Economics and Political Science, I am leading 3 seminars in the department of Philosophy, Logic, and Scientific Method on Wednesdays from Nov. 28-Dec 12 on Contemporary Philosophy of Statistics under the PH500 rubric, Room: Lak 2.06 (Lakatos building). Interested individuals who have not yet contacted me, write:  error@vt.edu .*
The Autumn seminars will also feature discussions with distinguished guest statisticians: Sir David Cox (Oxford); Dr. Stephen Senn: (Competence Center for Methodology and Statistics, Luxembourg); Dr. Christian Hennig (University College, London):
  • 28 November: (10 – 12 noon): Mayo: On Birnbaum’s argument for the Likelihood Principle: A 50-year old error and its influence on statistical foundations (See my blog and links within.)

5 December and 12 December: Statistical Science meets philosophy of science: Mayo and guests:

  • 5 Dec: 12 (noon)- 2p.m.: Sir David Cox
  • 12 Dec (10-12).Dr. Stephen Senn;
    Dr. Christian Hennig: TBA

Topics, activities, readings :TBA (Two 2012 Summer Seminars may be found here).

Blurb: Debates over the philosophical foundations of statistical science have a long and fascinating history marked by deep and passionate controversies that intertwine with fundamental notions of the nature of statistical inference and the role of probabilistic concepts in inductive learning. Progress in resolving decades-old controversies which still shake the foundations of statistics, demands both philosophical and technical acumen, but gaining entry into the current state of play requires a roadmap that zeroes in on core themes and current standpoints. While the seminar will attempt to minimize technical details, it will be important to clarify key notions to fully contribute to the debates. Relevance for general philosophical problems will be emphasized. Because the contexts in which statistical methods are most needed are ones that compel us to be most aware of strategies scientists use to cope with threats to reliability, considering the nature of statistical method in the collection, modeling, and analysis of data is an effective way to articulate and warrant general principles of evidence and inference.
Room 2.06 Lakatos Building; Centre for Philosophy of Natural and Social Science
 London School of Economics
 Houghton Street
London WC2A 2AE
Administrator: T. R. Chivers@lse.ac.uk

For  updates, details, and associated readings: please check the LSE Ph500 page on my blog or write to me.
*It is not necessary to have attended the 2 sessions held during the summer of 2012.

Categories: Announcement, philosophy of science, Statistics | Tags: , | 28 Comments

Announcement: Ontology and Methodology (Virginia Tech)

Posted on October 24, 2012 by Mayo

Ontology & Methodology 2013

Virginia Tech
4-5 May, 2013

Special Invited Speakers:
David Danks (CMU)
Peter Godfrey-Smith (CUNY)
Kevin Hoover (Duke)
Laura Ruetsche (U. Mich)
James Woodward (Pitt)
Virginia Tech Speakers:
Benjamin Jantzen, Deborah Mayo, Lydia Patton,

Aris Spanos

  • How do scientists’ initial conjectures about the entities and processes under their scrutiny influence the choice of variables, the structure of mature scientific theories, and methods of interpretation of those theories?
  • How do methods of data generation, statistical modeling, and analysis interact with the construction and appraisal of theories at multiple levels?
  • How does historical analysis of theory development illuminate the interplay between scientific methodology, theory building, and theory interpretation ?

This conference brings together prominent philosophers of biology, cognitive science, economics, and physics engaged in research into these interconnected methodological and ontological questions.

We invite contributed papers that illuminate these issues as they arise in general philosophy of science, in causal explanation and modeling, in the philosophy of experiment and statistics, and in the history and philosophy of science. We anticipate covering accommodation costs for accepted contributed papers. website

Deadline for submissions: January 15, 2013

Organizers: Benjamin Jantzen, Deborah Mayo, Lydia Patton

Sponsors: The Virginia Tech Department of Philosophy and the Fund for Experimental Reasoning, Reliability, and the Objectivity and Rationality of Science (E.R.R.O.R.)

Contact: Bjantzen@vt.edu

website

First Announcement

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Metablog: Rejected posts (blog within a blog)

Posted on October 5, 2012 by Mayo

I’ve been speculating for awhile on the idea of creating a blog within a blog, and now it exists. From now on items under “rejected posts” (on any topic including phil stat), “msc kvetches”, “phil stock” and assorted other irrelevant, irreverent, absurd, or dangerous meanderings that I feel like writing, will all be banished to: http://rejectedpostsofdmayo.com/

I am not recommending it, and in all likelihood will only announce additions to it under the “rejected posts” page on this blog, if that.  I’m guessing that readers haven’t even noticed that all the entries under the pages Msc Kvetchs, Rejected posts, and others, have been stripped from this blog. Most, but not all, made it over the very low hurdle of the official “rejected posts” blog (others were rejected, by me, from even that).
Of course, it’s just like a regular wordpress blog with its usual features.
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CMU Workshop on Foundations for Ockham’s Razor

Posted on June 12, 2012 by Mayo

CMU Workshop on Foundations for Ockham’s Razor

Carnegie Mellon University, Center for Formal Epistemology:

Workshop on Foundations for Ockham’s Razor

All are welcome to attend.

June 22-24, 2012

Adamson Wing, Baker Hall 136A, Carnegie Mellon University

Workshop web page and schedule

Contact:  Kevin T. Kelly (kk3n@andrew.cmu.edu)

Rationale:  Scientific theory choice is guided by judgments of simplicity, a bias frequently referred to as “Ockham’s Razor”. But what is simplicity and how, if at all, does it help science find the truth? Should we view simple theories as means for obtaining accurate predictions, as classical statisticians recommend? Or should we believe the theories themselves, as Bayesian methods seem to justify? The aim of this workshop is to re-examine the foundations of Ockham’s razor, with a firm focus on the connections, if any, between simplicity and truth.

Speakers:

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LSE Summer Seminar: Contemporary Problems in Philosophy of Statistics

Posted on May 8, 2012 by Mayo
As a visitor of the Centre for Philosophy of Natural and Social Science (CPNSS) at the London School of Economics and Political Science, I am planning to lead 5 seminars in the department of Philosophy, Logic, and Scientific Method this summer (2) and autumn (3) on Contemporary Philosophy of Statistics under the PH500 rubric, (listed under summer term).   This will be rather informal, based on the book I am writing with this name. There will be at least one guest seminar leader in the fall. Anyone interested in attending or finding out more may write to me: error@vt.edu .*

Wednesday   6th June            3-5pm                        T206

Wednesday 13th June             3-5pm                        T206

Autumn term dates: To Be Announced

LSE contact person:c.j.thompson@lse.ac.uk.

PH 500. Contemporary Problems in Philosophy of Statistical Science Read more »

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Call for papers: Philosepi?

Posted on April 10, 2012 by Mayo

Dear Reader: Here’s something of interest that was sent to me today (“philosepi”!)

Call for papers: Preventive Medicine special section on philosepi

The epidemiology and public health journal Preventive Medicine is devoting a special section to the Philosophy of Epidemiology, and published the first call for papers in its April 2012 issue. Papers will be published as they are received and reviewed. Deadline for inclusion in the first issue is 30 June 2012. See the Call For Papers for further information or contact Alex Broadbent who is happy to discuss possible topics, etc. All papers will be subject to peer review.

Preventive Medicine invites submissions from epidemiologists, statisticians, philosophers, lawyers, and others with a professional interest in the conceptual and methodological challenges that emerge from the field of epidemiology for a Special Section entitled “Philoso- phy of Epidemiology” with Guest Editor Dr Alex Broadbent of the University of Johannesburg. Dr Broadent also served as the Guest Editor of a related previous Special Section, “Epidemiology, Risk, and Causation”, that appeared in the October–November 2011 issue (Prev Med 53(4–5):213–259 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ journal/00917435/53/4-5). Read more »

Categories: Announcement, philosophy of science | Tags: , , | 1 Comment

History and Philosophy of Evidence-Based Health Care (EBHC)

Posted on April 3, 2012 by Mayo
Here is an announcement I received of an unusual short course on History and Philosophy of Evidence-Based Health Care (EBHC):  ”Historical anecdotes are often easier to grasp than numbers,” the ad reads, but I hope they’re not going to be recommending the latter be replaced by the former?

Overview

The relationship between medicine and philosophy has a distinguished history. Maimonides, Avicenna, Galen, Descartes, and Locke were all philosophers and medical doctors. More recently, Peter Medawar and Archie Cochrane were strongly influenced by Karl Popper. There is an increasing body of evidence that combining History and Philosophy of Science on the one hand, and health care on the other creates synergies for the mutual benefit of all disciplines.

The course will consider:

  • How and why did the idea that comparative studies were necessary to inform health care decisions replace other ‘methods’ such as reasoning from more basic sciences and ‘expertise’?
  • Can average results be applied to individuals?
  • What is the role of values?

We believe that the history and philosophy of science is an integrated discipline, and we will explore these issues with appeal to current and historical examples.… it is fair to say that not very much attention was paid by the originators of EBM to the philosophy of science… One hopes that the attention of philosophers will be drawn to these questions (Haynes, 2002)

A wise man proportions his belief to the evidence – David Hume

History of science without philosophy of science is blind … philosophy of science without history of science is empty – Norwood Russell Hanson

Categories: Announcement | Tags: , | 9 Comments

Announcement: Philosophy of Scientific Experiment Conference

Posted on March 26, 2012 by Mayo

Call for papers

PSX Philosophy of Scientific Experimentation 3 (PSX3)

Friday and Saturday, October 5 and 6, 2012

University of Colorado, Boulder

Keynote Speakers:   Professor Eric Cornell, University of Colorado, Nobel Prize (Physics, 2001)

 Professor Friedrich Steinle, History of Science, University of Berlin

Experiments play essential roles in science. Philosophers of science have emphasized their role in the testing of theories but they also play other important roles. They are, for example, essential in exploring new phenomenological realms and discovering new effects and phenomena. Nevertheless, experiments are still an underrepresented topic in mainstream philosophy of science. This conference on the philosophy of scientific experimentation, the third in a series,  is intended to give a home to philosophical interests in, and concerns about, experiment. Among the questions that will be discussed are the following: How is experimental practice organized, around theories or around something else? How independent is experimentation from theories? Does it have a life of its own? Can experiments undermine the threat posed to the objectivity of science by the thesis of theory-ladenness, underdetermination, or the Duhem-Quine thesis? What are the important similarities and differences between experiments in different sciences? What are the experimental strategies scientists use for making sure that their experiments work correctly? How are phenomena discovered or created in the laboratory? Is experimental knowledge epistemically more secure than observational knowledge? Can experiments give us good reasons for belief in theoretical entities? What role do computer simulations play in the assessment of experimental background? How trustworthy are they? Do they warrant the same kind of inferences as experimental knowledge? Are they theory by other means?

Submissions on any aspect of experiment and simulation are welcome. They should be in the form of an extended abstract (1000 words) submitted through EasyChair https://www.easychair.org/conferences/?conf=psx3 Read more »

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