Announcement

September 2014: Blog Contents

metablog old fashion typewriterSeptember 2014: Error Statistics Philosophy
Blog Table of Contents 

Compiled by Jean A. Miller

  • (9/30) Letter from George (Barnard)
  • (9/27) Should a “Fictionfactory” peepshow be barred from a festival on “Truth and Reality”? Diederik Stapel says no (rejected post)
  • (9/23) G.A. Barnard: The Bayesian “catch-all” factor: probability vs likelihood
  • (9/21) Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”
  • (9/18) Uncle Sam wants YOU to help with scientific reproducibility!
  • (9/15) A crucial missing piece in the Pistorius trial? (2): my answer (Rejected Post)
  • (9/12) “The Supernal Powers Withhold Their Hands And Let Me Alone”: C.S. Peirce
  • (9/6) Statistical Science: The Likelihood Principle issue is out…!
  • (9/4) All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy Contents-3 years on
  • (9/3) 3 in blog years: Sept 3 is 3rd anniversary of errorstatistics.com

 

 

 

 

Categories: Announcement, blog contents, Statistics | Leave a comment

Uncle Sam wants YOU to help with scientific reproducibility!

You still have a few days to respond to the call of your country to solve problems of scientific reproducibility!

The following passages come from Retraction Watch, with my own recommendations at the end.

“White House takes notice of reproducibility in science, and wants your opinion”

ostpThe White House’s Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is taking a look at innovation and scientific research, and issues of reproducibility have made it onto its radar.

Here’s the description of the project from the Federal Register:

The Office of Science and Technology Policy and the National Economic Council request public comments to provide input into an upcoming update of the Strategy for American Innovation, which helps to guide the Administration’s efforts to promote lasting economic growth and competitiveness through policies that support transformative American innovation in products, processes, and services and spur new fundamental discoveries that in the long run lead to growing economic prosperity and rising living standards.

I wonder what Steven Pinker would say about some of the above verbiage?

And here’s what’s catching the eye of people interested in scientific reproducibility:

(11) Given recent evidence of the irreproducibility of a surprising number of published scientific findings, how can the Federal Government leverage its role as a significant funder of scientific research to most effectively address the problem?

The OSTP is the same office that, in 2013, took what Nature called “a long-awaited leap forward for open access” when it said “that publications from taxpayer-funded research should be made free to read after a year’s delay.That OSTP memo came after more than 65,000 people “signed a We the People petition asking for expanded public access to the results of taxpayer-funded research.”

Have ideas on improving reproducibility? Emails to innovationstrategy@ostp.gov are preferred, according to the notice, which also explains how to fax or mail comments. The deadline is September 23.

Off the top of my head, how about:

Promote the use of methodologies that:

  • control and assess the capabilities of methods to avoid mistaken inferences from data;
  • require demonstrated self-criticism all the way from the data collection, modelling and interpretation (statistical and substantive);
  • describe what is especially shaky or poorly probed thus far (and spell out how subsequent studies are most likely to locate those flaws)[i]

Institute penalties for QRPs and fraud?

Please offer your suggestions in the comments, or directly to Uncle Sam.

 [i]It may require a certain courage on the part of researchers, journalists, referees.

Categories: Announcement, reproducibility | 18 Comments

3 in blog years: Sept 3 is 3rd anniversary of errorstatistics.com

Where did you hear this?  “Join me, if you will, for a little deep-water drilling, as I cast about on my isle of Elba.” Remember this and this? And this philosophical treatise on “moving blog day”? Oy, did I really write all this stuff?

http://errorstatistics.blogspot.com/2011/09/overheard-at-comedy-hour-at-bayesian_03.html

cake baked by blog staff for 3 year anniversary of errorstatistics.com

I still see this as my rag-tag amateur blog. I never learned html and don’t have time to now. But the blog enterprise was more jocund and easy-going then–just an experiment, really, and a place to discuss our RMM papers. (And, of course, a home for error statistical philosophers-in-exile).

A blog table of contents for all three years will appear tomorrow.

Anyway, 2 representatives from Elba flew into NYC and  baked this cake in my never-used Chef’s oven (based on the cover/table of contents of EGEK 1996). We’ll be celebrating at A Different Place tonight[i]–so if you’re in the neighborhood, stop by after 8pm for an Elba Grease (on me).

Do you want a free signed copy of EGEK? Say why in 25 words or less (to error@vt.edu), and the Fund for E.R.R.O.R.* will send them to the top 3 submissions (by 9/10/14).**

Acknowledgments: I want to thank the many commentators for their frequent insights and for keeping things interesting and lively. Among the regulars, and semi-regulars (but with impact) off the top of my head, and in no order: Senn, Yanofsky, Byrd, Gelman, Schachtman, Kepler, McKinney, S. Young, Matloff, O’Rourke, Gandenberger, Wasserman, E. Berk, Spanos, Glymour, Rohde, Greenland, Omaclaren,someone named Mark, assorted guests, original guests, and anons, and mysterious visitors, related twitterers (who would rather tweet from afar). I’m sure I’ve left some people out. Thanks to students and participants in the spring 2014 seminar with Aris Spanos (slides and lecture notes are still up).

I’m especially grateful to my regular guest bloggers: Stephen Senn and Aris Spanos, and to those who were subjected to deconstructions and to U-Phils in years past. (I may return to that some time.) Other guest posters for 2014 will be acknowledged in the year round up.

I thank blog compilers, Jean Miler and Nicole Jinn, and give special thanks for the tireless efforts of Jean Miller who has slogged through html, or whatever it is, when necessary, has scanned and put up dozens of articles to make them easy for readers to access, taken slow ferries back and forth to the island of Elba, and fixed gazillions of glitches on a daily basis. Last, but not least, to the palindromists who have been winning lots of books recently (1 day left for August submissions).

*Experimental Reasoning, Reliability, Objectivity and Rationality.

** Accompany submissions with an e-mail address and regular address. All submissions remain private. Elba judges decisions are final. Void in any places where prohibited by laws, be they laws of likelihood or Napoleanic laws-in-exile. But seriously, we’re giving away 3 books.

[i]email for directions.

Categories: Announcement, Statistics | 12 Comments

Blogging Boston JSM2014?

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I’m not there. (Several people have asked, I guess because I blogged JSM13.) If you hear of talks (or anecdotes) of interest to error statistics.com, please comment here (or twitter: @learnfromerror)

Categories: Announcement | 7 Comments

Winner of June Palindrome Contest: Lori Wike

photo

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Winner of June 2014 Palindrome Contest: First Second* Time Winner! Lori Wike

*Her April win is here

Palindrome:

Parsec? I overfit omen as Elba sung “I err on! Oh, honor reign!” Usable, sane motif revoices rap.

The requirement: A palindrome with Elba plus overfit. (The optional second word: “average” was not needed to win.)

Bio:

Lori Wike is principal bassoonist of the Utah Symphony and is on the faculty of the University of Utah and Westminster College. She holds a Bachelor of Music degree from the Eastman School of Music and a Master of Arts degree in Comparative Literature from UC-Irvine.

Continue reading

Categories: Announcement, Palindrome | Leave a comment

Scientism and Statisticism: a conference* (i)

images-11A lot of philosophers and scientists seem to be talking about scientism these days–either championing it or worrying about it. What is it? It’s usually a pejorative term describing an unwarranted deference to the so-called scientific method over and above other methods of inquiry. Some push it as a way to combat postmodernism (is that even still around?) Stephen Pinker gives scientism a positive spin (and even offers it as a cure for the malaise of the humanities!)[1]. Anyway, I’m to talk at a conference on Scientism (*not statisticism, that’s my word) taking place in NYC May 16-17. It is organized by Massimo Pigliucci (chair of philosophy at CUNY-Lehman), who has written quite a lot on the topic in the past few years. Information can be found here. In thinking about scientism for this conference, however, I was immediately struck by this puzzle: Continue reading

Categories: Announcement, PhilStatLaw, science communication, Statistical fraudbusting, StatSci meets PhilSci | Tags: | 15 Comments

Winner of April Palindrome contest: Lori Wike

.

Lori Wike

Winner of April 2014 Palindrome Contest:

Lori Wike

Palindrome:

Pose ad: ‘Elba fallacy amid aged? Amygdala error or real?’ Ad: gym ad? Egad! I may call a fabled Aesop.

The requirement: A palindrome with Elba plus “fallacy” with an optional second word: “error”. A palindrome using both topped an acceptable palindrome using only “fallacy”. All April submissions used both. Other April finalists are here.

Bio:

Lori Wike is principal bassoonist of the Utah Symphony and is on the faculty of the University of Utah and Westminster College. She holds a Bachelor of Music degree from the Eastman School of Music and a Master of Arts degree in Comparative Literature from UC-Irvine.

Continue reading

Categories: Announcement, Palindrome | 1 Comment

Putting the brakes on the breakthrough: An informal look at the argument for the Likelihood Principle

ccr20011001bb_s04-1

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Friday, May 2, 2014, I will attempt to present my critical analysis of the Birnbaum argument for the (strong) Likelihood Principle, so as to be accessible to a general philosophy audience (flyer below). Can it be done? I don’t know yet, this is a first. It will consist of:

  • Example 1: Trying and Trying Again: Optional stopping
  • Example 2: Two instruments with different precisions
    [you shouldn’t get credit (or blame) for something you didn’t do]
  • The Breakthough: Birnbaumization
  • Imaginary dialogue with Allan Birnbaum

The full paper is here. My discussion takes several pieces a reader can explore further by searching this blog (e.g., under SLP, brakes e.g., here, Birnbaum, optional stopping). I will post slides afterwards.

Mayo poster

Categories: Announcement, Birnbaum Brakes, Statistics, strong likelihood principle | 23 Comments

Phil 6334 Visitor: S. Stanley Young, “Statistics and Scientific Integrity”

We are pleased to announce our guest speaker at Thursday’s seminar (April 24, 2014): Statistics and Scientific Integrity”:

YoungPhoto2008S. Stanley Young, PhD 
Assistant Director for Bioinformatics
National Institute of Statistical Sciences
Research Triangle Park, NC

Author of Resampling-Based Multiple Testing, Westfall and Young (1993) Wiley.


0471557617

 

 

 

The main readings for the discussion are:

 

Categories: Announcement, evidence-based policy, Phil6334, science communication, selection effects, Statistical fraudbusting, Statistics | 4 Comments

Self-referential blogpost (conditionally accepted*)

This is a blogpost on a talk (by Jeremy Fox) on blogging that will be live tweeted here at Virginia Tech on Monday April 7, and the moment I post this blog on “Blogging as a Mode of Scientific Communication” it will be tweeted. Live.

Jeremy’s upcoming talk on blogging will be live-tweeted by @FisheriesBlog, 1 pm EDT Apr. 7

Posted on April 3, 2014 by Jeremy Fox

If you like to follow live tweets of talks, you’re in luck: my upcoming Virginia Tech talk on blogging will be live tweeted by Brandon Peoples, a grad student there who co-authors The Fisheries Blog. Follow @FisheriesBlog at 1 pm US Eastern Daylight Time on Monday, April 7 for the live tweets.

Jeremy Fox’s excellent blog, “Dynamic Ecology,” often discusses matters statistical from a perspective in sync with error statistics.

I’ve never been invited to talk about blogging or even to blog about blogging, maybe this is a new trend. I look forward to meeting him (live!).

va-tech-poster

* Posts that don’t directly pertain to philosophy of science/statistics are placed under “rejected posts” but since this is a metablogpost on a talk on a blog pertaining to statistics it has been “conditionally accepted”, unconditionally, i.e., without conditions.

Categories: Announcement, Metablog | Leave a comment

Winner of the March 2014 palindrome contest (rejected post)

caitlin-parkerWinner of the March 2014 Palindrome Contest

Caitlin Parker

Palindrome: 

Able, we’d well aim on. I bet on a note. Binomial? Lewd. Ew, Elba!

The requirement was: A palindrome with Elba plus Binomial with an optional second word: bet. A palindrome that uses both Binomial and bet topped an acceptable palindrome that only uses Binomial.

Short bio: 
Caitlin Parker is a first-year master’s student in the Philosophy department at Virginia Tech. Though her interests are in philosophy of science and statistics, she also has experience doing psychological research. Continue reading

Categories: Announcement, Palindrome, Rejected Posts | Leave a comment

Cosma Shalizi gets tenure (at last!) (metastat announcement)

ShaliziNews Flash! Congratulations to Cosma Shalizi who announced yesterday that he’d been granted tenure (Statistics, Carnegie Mellon). Cosma is a leading error statistician, a creative polymath and long-time blogger (at Three-Toad sloth). Shalizi wrote an early book review of EGEK (Mayo 1996)* that people still send me from time to time, in case I hadn’t seen it! You can find it on this blog from 2 years ago (posted by Jean Miller). A discussion of a meeting of the minds between Shalizi and Andrew Gelman is here.

*Error and the Growth of Experimental Knowledge.

Categories: Announcement, Error Statistics, Statistics | Tags: | Leave a comment

Winner of the Febrary 2014 palindrome contest (rejected post)

SamHeadWinner of February 2014 Palindrome Contest
Samuel Dickson

Palindrome:
Rot, Cadet A, I’ve droned! Elba, revile deviant, naïve, deliverable den or deviated actor.

The requirement was: A palindrome with Elba plus deviate with an optional second word: deviant. A palindrome that uses both deviate and deviant tops an acceptable palindrome that only uses deviate.

Bio:
Sam Dickson is a regulatory statistician at U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID) with experience in statistical consulting, specializing in design and analysis of biological and genetics/genomics studies.

Statement:
“It’s great to get a  chance to exercise the mind with something other than statistics, though putting words together to make a palindrome is a puzzle very similar to designing an experiment that answers the right question.  Thank you for hosting this contest!”

Choice of book:
Principles of Applied Statistics (D. R. Cox and C. A. Donnelly 2011, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press)

Congratulations, Sam! I hope that your opting to do two words (plus Elba) means we can go back to the tougher standard for palindromes, but I’d just as soon raise the level of competence for several months more (sticking to one word). 

Categories: Announcement, Palindrome, Rejected Posts, Statistics | Leave a comment

Phil6334 Statistical Snow Sculpture

Statistical Snow Sculpture

Statistical Snow Sculpture

No Seminar. Blizzard.

Categories: Announcement, Phil6334 | Leave a comment

BOSTON COLLOQUIUM FOR PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE: Revisiting the Foundations of Statistics

BOSTON COLLOQUIUM FOR PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE

2013–2014
54th Annual Program

Download the 54th Annual Program

REVISITING THE FOUNDATIONS OF STATISTICS IN THE ERA OF BIG DATA: SCALING UP TO MEET THE CHALLENGE

Cosponsored by the Department of Mathematics & Statistics at Boston University.
Friday, February 21, 2014
10 a.m. – 5:30 p.m.
Photonics Center, 9th Floor Colloquium Room (Rm 906)
8 St. Mary’s Street

10 a.m.–noon

  • Computational Challenges in Genomic Medicine
    Jill Mesirov Computational Biology and Bioinformatics, Broad Institute
  • Selection, Significance, and Signification: Issues in High Energy Physics
    Kent Staley Philosophy, Saint Louis University

1:30–5:30 p.m.

  • Multi-Resolution Inference: An Engineering (Engineered?) Foundation of Statistical Inference
    Xiao-Li Meng Statistics, Harvard University
  • Is the Philosophy of Probabilism an Obstacle to Statistical Fraud Busting?
    Deborah Mayo Philosophy, Virginia Tech
  • Targeted Learning from Big Data
    Mark van der Laan Biostatistics and Statistics, UC Berkeley

Panel Discussion

Boston Colloquium 2013-2014 (3)

Categories: Announcement, philosophy of science, Philosophy of Statistics, Statistical fraudbusting, Statistics | Leave a comment

Winner of the January 2014 palindrome contest (rejected post)

images-5Winner of the January 2014 Palindrome Context

Karthik Durvasula
Visiting Assistant Professor in Phonology & Phonetics at Michigan State University

Palindrome: Test’s optimal? Agreed! Able to honor? O no! Hot Elba deer gala. MIT-post set.

The requirement was: A palindrome with “optimal” and “Elba”.

BioI’m a Visiting Assistant Professor in Phonology & Phonetics at Michigan State University. My work primarily deals with probing people’s subconscious knowledge of (abstract) sound patterns. Recently, I have been working on auditory illusions that stem from the bias that such subconscious knowledge introduces.

Statement: “Trying to get a palindrome that was at least partially meaningful was fun and challenging. Plus I get an awesome book for my efforts. What more could a guy ask for! I also want to thank Mayo for being excellent about email correspondence, and answering my (sometimes silly) questions tirelessly.”

Book choice: EGEK 1996! :)
[i.e.,Mayo (1996): "Error and the Growth of Experimental Knowledge"]

CONGRATULATIONS! And thanks so much for your interest!

February contest: Elba plus deviate (deviation)*

New Rule: Using both deviate and deviant tops an acceptable palindrome that only uses deviate (but can earn 1/2 prize voucher for doubling on another month).

Categories: Announcement, Palindrome, Rejected Posts | Leave a comment

Phil6334: “Philosophy of Statistical Inference and Modeling” New Course: Spring 2014: Mayo and Spanos: (Virginia Tech) UPDATE: JAN 21

FURTHER UPDATED: New course for Spring 2014: Thurs 3:30-6:15 (Randolph 209)

first installment 6334 syllabus_SYLLABUS (first) Phil 6334: Philosophy of Statistical Inference and ModelingPicture 216 1mayo

picture-072-1-1

D. Mayo and A. Spanos

Contact: error@vt.edu

This new course, to be jointly taught by Professors D. Mayo (Philosophy) and A. Spanos (Economics) will provide an introductory, in-depth introduction to graduate level research in philosophy of inductive-statistical inference and probabilistic methods of evidence (a branch of formal epistemology). We explore philosophical problems of confirmation and induction, the philosophy and history of frequentist and Bayesian approaches, and key foundational controversies surrounding tools of statistical data analytics, modeling and hypothesis testing in the natural and social sciences, and in evidence-based policy.

We now have some tentative topics and dates:

 

course flyer pic

1. 1/23 Introduction to the Course: 4 waves of controversy in the philosophy of statistics
2. 1/30 How to tell what’s true about statistical inference: Probabilism, performance and probativeness
3. 2/6 Induction and Confirmation: Formal Epistemology
4. 2/13 Induction, falsification, severe tests: Popper and Beyond
5. 2/20 Statistical models and estimation: the Basics
6. 2/27 Fundamentals of significance tests and severe testing
7. 3/6 Five sigma and the Higgs Boson discovery Is it “bad science”?
SPRING BREAK Statistical Exercises While Sunning
 8. 3/20  Fraudbusting and Scapegoating: Replicability and big data: are most scientific results false?
9. 3/27 How can we test the assumptions of statistical models?
All models are false; no methods are objective: Philosophical problems of misspecification testing: Spanos method
10. 4/3 Fundamentals of Statistical Testing: Family Feuds and 70 years of controversy
11. 4/10 Error Statistical Philosophy: Highly Probable vs Highly Probed
Some howlers of testing
12. 4/17 What ever happened to Bayesian Philosophical Foundations? Dutch books etc. Fundamental of Bayesian statistics
13. 4/24 Bayesian-frequentist reconciliations, unifications, and O-Bayesians
14. 5/1 Overview: Answering the critics: Should statistical philosophy be divorced from methodology?
(15. TBA) Topic to be chosen (Resampling statistics and new journal policies? Likelihood principle)

 Interested in attending? E.R.R.O.R.S.* can fund travel (presumably driving) and provide accommodation for Thurs. night in a conference lodge in Blacksburg for a few people through (or part of)  the semester. If interested, write ASAP for details (with a brief description of your interest and background) to error@vt.edu. (Several people asked about long-distance hook-ups: We will try to provide some sessions by Skype, and will put each of the seminar items here (also check the Phil6334 page on this blog). 

A sample of questions we consider*:

  • What makes an inquiry scientific? objective? When are we warranted in generalizing from data?
  • What is the “traditional problem of induction”?  Is it really insoluble?  Does it matter in practice?
  • What is the role of probability in uncertain inference? (to assign degrees of confirmation or belief? to characterize the reliability of test procedures?) 3P’s: Probabilism, performance and probativeness
  • What is probability? Random variables? Estimates? What is the relevance of long-run error probabilities for inductive inference in science?
  • What did Popper really say about severe testing, induction, falsification? Is it time for a new definition of pseudoscience?
  • Confirmation and falsification: Carnap and Popper, paradoxes of confirmation; contemporary formal epistemology
  • What is the current state of play in the “statistical wars” e.g., between frequentists, likelihoodists, and (subjective vs. “non-subjective”) Bayesians?
  • How should one specify and interpret p-values, type I and II errors, confidence levels?  Can one tell the truth (and avoid fallacies) with statistics? Do the “reformers” themselves need reform?
  • Is it unscientific (ad hoc, degenerating) to use the same data both in constructing and testing hypotheses? When and why?
  • Is it possible to test assumptions of statistical models without circularity?
  • Is the new research on “replicability” well-founded, or an erroneous use of screening statistics for long-run performance?
  • Should randomized studies be the “gold standard” for “evidence-based” science and policy?
  • What’s the problem with big data: cherry-picking, data mining, multiple testing
  • The many faces of Bayesian statistics: Can there be uninformative prior probabilities? (No) Principles of indifference over the years
  • Statistical fraudbusting: psychology, economics, evidence-based policy
  • Applied controversies (selected): Higgs experiments, climate modeling, social psychology, econometric modeling, development economic

D. Mayo (books):

How to Tell What’s True About Statistical Inference, (Cambridge, in progress).

Error and the Growth of Experimental KnowledgeChicago: Chicago University Press, 1996. (Winner of 1998 Lakatos Prize).

Acceptable Evidence: Science and Values in Risk Managementco-edited with Rachelle Hollander, New York: Oxford University Press, 1994.

Aris Spanos (books):

Probability Theory and Statistical Inference, Cambridge, 1999.

Statistical Foundations of Econometric Modeling, Cambridge, 1986.

Joint (books): Error and Inference: Recent Exchanges on Experimental Reasoning, Reliability and the Objectivity and Rationality of Science, D. Mayo & A. Spanos (eds.), Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010. [The book includes both papers and exchanges between Mayo and A. Chalmers, A. Musgrave, P. Achinstein, J. Worrall, C. Glymour, A. Spanos, and joint papers with Mayo and Sir David Cox].

Categories: Announcement, Error Statistics, Statistics | 5 Comments

“Philosophy of Statistical Inference and Modeling” New Course: Spring 2014: Mayo and Spanos: (Virginia Tech)

New course for Spring 2014: Thursday 3:30-6:15

picture-072-1-1Phil 6334: Philosophy of Statistical Inference and ModelingPicture 216 1mayo

D. Mayo and A. Spanos

Contact: error@vt.edu

This new course, to be jointly taught by Professors D. Mayo (Philosophy) and A. Spanos (Economics) will provide an introductory, in-depth introduction to graduate level research in philosophy of inductive-statistical inference and probabilistic methods of evidence (a branch of formal epistemology). We explore philosophical problems of confirmation and induction, the philosophy and history of frequentist and Bayesian approaches, and key foundational controversies surrounding tools of statistical data analytics, modeling and hypothesis testing in the natural and social sciences, and in evidence-based policy.

course flyer pic

A sample of questions we consider*:

  • What makes an inquiry scientific? objective? When are we warranted in generalizing from data?
  • What is the “traditional problem of induction”?  Is it really insoluble?  Does it matter in practice?
  • What is the role of probability in uncertain inference? (to assign degrees of confirmation or belief? to characterize the reliability of test procedures?) 3P’s: Probabilism, performance and probativeness
  • What is probability? Random variables? Estimates? What is the relevance of long-run error probabilities for inductive inference in science?
  • What did Popper really say about severe testing, induction, falsification? Is it time for a new definition of pseudoscience?
  • Confirmation and falsification: Carnap and Popper, paradoxes of confirmation; contemporary formal epistemology
  • What is the current state of play in the “statistical wars” e.g., between frequentists, likelihoodists, and (subjective vs. “non-subjective”) Bayesians?
  • How should one specify and interpret p-values, type I and II errors, confidence levels?  Can one tell the truth (and avoid fallacies) with statistics? Do the “reformers” themselves need reform?
  • Is it unscientific (ad hoc, degenerating) to use the same data both in constructing and testing hypotheses? When and why?
  • Is it possible to test assumptions of statistical models without circularity?
  • Is the new research on “replicability” well-founded, or an erroneous use of screening statistics for long-run performance?
  • Should randomized studies be the “gold standard” for “evidence-based” science and policy?
  • What’s the problem with big data: cherry-picking, data mining, multiple testing
  • The many faces of Bayesian statistics: Can there be uninformative prior probabilities? (No) Principles of indifference over the years
  • Statistical fraudbusting: psychology, economics, evidence-based policy
  • Applied controversies (selected): Higgs experiments, climate modeling, social psychology, econometric modeling, development economic

Interested in attending? E.R.R.O.R.S.* can fund travel (presumably driving) and provide lodging for Thurs. night in a conference lodge in Blacksburg for a few people through (or part of)  the semester. Topics will be posted over the next week, but if you might be interested, write ASAP for details (with a brief description of your interest and background) to error@vt.edu. 

*This course will be a brand new version of related seminar we’ve led in the past, so we don’t have the syllabus set yet. We’re going to try something different this time. I’ll be updating in subsequent installments to the blog.

Dates: January 23, 30; February 6, 13, 20, 27; March 6, [March 8-16 break], 20, 27; April 3,10, 17, 24; May 1

D. Mayo (books):

How to Tell What’s True About Statistical Inference, (Cambridge, in progress).

Error and the Growth of Experimental KnowledgeChicago: Chicago University Press, 1996. (Winner of 1998 Lakatos Prize).

Acceptable Evidence: Science and Values in Risk Managementco-edited with Rachelle Hollander, New York: Oxford University Press, 1994.

Aris Spanos (books):

Probability Theory and Statistical Inference, Cambridge, 1999.

Statistical Foundations of Econometric Modeling, Cambridge, 1986.

Joint (books): Error and Inference: Recent Exchanges on Experimental Reasoning, Reliability and the Objectivity and Rationality of Science, D. Mayo & A. Spanos (eds.), Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010. [The book includes both papers and exchanges between Mayo and A. Chalmers, A. Musgrave, P. Achinstein, J. Worrall, C. Glymour, A. Spanos, and joint papers with Mayo and Sir David Cox].

Categories: Announcement, Error Statistics, Statistics | 9 Comments

FDA’S New Pharmacovigilance

FDA’s New Generic Drug Labeling Rule

The FDA is proposing an about-face on a controversial issue: to allow (or require? [1]) generic drug companies to alter the label on drugs, whereas they are currently  required to keep the identical label as used by the brand-name company (See earlier post here and here.) While it clearly makes sense to alert the public to newly found side-effects, this change, if adopted, will open generic companies to lawsuits to which they’d been immune (as determined by a 2011 Supreme Court decision).  Whether or not the rule passes, the FDA is ready with a training session for you!  The following is from the notice I received by e-mail: Continue reading

Categories: Announcement, PhilStatLaw, science communication | 4 Comments

Blog Contents: August 2013

IMG_0244August 2013
(8/1) Blogging (flogging?) the SLP: Response to Reply- Xi’an Robert
(8/5) At the JSM: 2013 International Year of Statistics
(8/6) What did Nate Silver just say? Blogging the JSM
(8/9) 11th bullet, multiple choice question, and last thoughts on the JSM
(8/11) E.S. Pearson: “Ideas came into my head as I sat on a gate overlooking an experimental blackcurrant plot”
(8/13) Blogging E.S. Pearson’s Statistical Philosophy
(8/15) A. Spanos: Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics
(8/17) Gandenberger: How to Do Philosophy That Matters (guest post)
(8/21) Blog contents: July, 2013
(8/22) PhilStock: Flash Freeze
(8/22) A critical look at “critical thinking”: deduction and induction
(8/28) Is being lonely unnatural for slim particles? A statistical argument
(8/31) Overheard at the comedy hour at the Bayesian retreat-2 years on

Categories: Announcement, Statistics | Leave a comment

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