Error Statistics Philosophy: Blog Contents (3.5 years)

By: D. G. Mayo [i]

**September 2011**

- (9/3) Frequentists in Exile: The Purpose of this Blog
- (9/3) Overheard at the comedy hour at the Bayesian retreat
- (9/4) Drilling Rule #1
- (9/9) Kuru
- (9/13) In Exile, Clinging to Old Ideas?
- (9/15) SF conferences & E. Lehmann
- (9/16) Getting It Right But for the Wrong Reason
- (9/20) A Highly Anomalous Event
- (9/23) LUCKY 13 (Critcisms)
- (9/26) Whipping Boys and Witch Hunters
- (9/29) Part 1: Imaginary scientist at an imaginary company, Prionvac, and an imaginary reformer

**October 2011**

- (10/3) Part 2 Prionvac: The Will to Understand Power
- (10/4) Part 3 Prionvac: How the Reformers Should Have done Their Job
- (10/5) Formaldehyde Hearing: How to Tell the Truth With Statistically Insignificant Results
- (10/7) Blogging the (Strong) Likelihood Principle
- (10/10) RMM-1: Special Volume on Stat Sci Meets Phil Sci
- (10/10) Objectivity 1: Will the Real Junk Science Please Stand Up?
- (10/13) Objectivity #2: The “Dirty Hands” Argument for Ethics in Evidence
- (10/14) King Tut Includes ErrorStatistics in Top 50 Statblogs!
- (10/16) Objectivity #3: Clean(er) Hands With Metastatistcs
- (10/19) RMM-2: “A Conversation Between Sir David Cox & D.G. Mayo
- (10/20) Blogging the Likelihood Principle #2: Solitary Fishing: SLP Violations
- (10/22) The Will to Understand Power: Neyman’s Nursery (NN1)
- (10/28) RMM-3: Special Volume on Stat Scie Meets Phl Sci (Hendry)
- (10/30) Background Knowledge: Not to Quantify, but to Avoid Being Misled by, Subjective Beliefs
- (10/31) Oxford Gaol: Statistical Bogeymen

**November 2011**

- (11/1) RMM-4: Special Volume on Stat Scie Meets Phil Sci (Spanos)
- (11/3) Who is Really Doing the Work?*
- (11/5) Skeleton Key and Skeletal Points for (Esteemed) Ghost Guest
- (11/9) Neyman’s Nursery 2: Power and Severity [Continuation of Oct. 22 Post]
- (11/12) Neyman’s Nursery (NN) 3: SHPOWER vs POWER
- (11/15) Logic Takes a Bit of a Hit!: (NN 4) Continuing: Shpower (“observed” power) vs Power
- (11/18) Neyman’s Nursery (NN5): Final Post
- (11/21) RMM-5: Special Volume on Stat Scie Meets Phil Sci (Wasserman)
- (11/23) Elbar Grease: Return to the Comedy Hour at the Bayesian Retreat
- (11/28) The UN Charter: double-counting and data snooping
- (11/29) If you try sometime, you find you get what you need!

**December 2011**

- (12/2) Getting Credit (or blame) for Something You Don’t Deserve (and first honorable mention)
- (12/6) Putting the Brakes on the Breakthrough Part 1*

- (12/7) Part II: Breaking Through the Breakthrough*
- (12/11) Irony and Bad Faith: Deconstructing Bayesians
- (12/19) Deconstructing and Deep-Drilling* 2
- (12/22) The 3 stages of the acceptance of novel truths
- (12/25) Little Bit of Blog Log-ic
- (12/26) Contributed Deconstructions: Irony & Bad Faith 3
- (12/29) JIM BERGER ON JIM BERGER!
- (12/31) Midnight With Birnbaum

**January 2012**

- (1/3) Model Validation and the LLP-(Long Playing Vinyl Record)
- (1/8) Don’t Birnbaumize that Experiment my Friend*
- (1/10) Bad-Faith Assertions of Conflicts of Interest?*
- (1/13) U-PHIL: “So you want to do a philosophical analysis?”
- (1/14) “You May Believe You are a Bayesian But You Are Probably Wrong” (Extract from Senn RMM article)
- (1/15) Mayo Philosophizes on Stephen Senn: “How Can We Culivate Senn’s-Ability?”
- (1/17) “Philosophy of Statistics”: Nelder on Lindley
- (1/19) RMM-6 Special Volume on Stat Sci Meets Phil Sci (Sprenger)
- (1/22) U-Phil: Stephen Senn (1): C. Robert, A. Jaffe, and Mayo (brief remarks)
- (1/23) U-Phil: Stephen Senn (2): Andrew Gelman
- (1/24) U-Phil (3): Stephen Senn on Stephen Senn!
- (1/26) Updating & Downdating: One of the Pieces to Pick up
- (1/29) No-Pain Philosophy: Skepticism, Rationality, Popper, and All That: First of 3 Parts

**February 2012**

- (2/3) Senn Again (Gelman)
- (2/7) When Can Risk-Factor Epidemiology Provide Reliable Tests?
- (2/8) Guest Blogger: Interstitial Doubts About the Matrixx (Schachtman)
- (2/8) Distortions in the Court? (PhilStat/PhilStock) **Cobb on Zilizk & McCloskey
- (2/11) R.A. Fisher: Statistical Methods and Scientific Inference
- (2/11) JERZY NEYMAN: Note on an Article by Sir Ronald Fisher
- (2/12) E.S. Pearson: Statistical Concepts in Their Relation to Reality
- (2/12) Guest Blogger. STEPHEN SENN: Fisher’s alternative to the alternative
- (2/15) Guest Blogger. Aris Spanos: The Enduring Legacy of R.A. Fisher
- (2/17) Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood
- (2/20) Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”? (Rejected Post Feb 20)
- (2/22) Intro to Misspecification Testing: Ordering From A Full Diagnostic Menu (part 1)
- (2/23) Misspecification Testing: (part 2) A Fallacy of Error “Fixing”
- (2/27) Misspecification Testing: (part 3) Subtracting-out effects “on paper”
- (2/28) Misspecification Tests: (part 4) and brief concluding remarks

**March 2012**

- (3/2) MetaBlog: March 2, 2012
- (3/3) Statistical Science Court?
- (3/6) Mayo, Senn, and Wasserman on Gelman’s RMM** Contribution
- (3/8) Lifting a piece from Spanos’ contribution* will usefully add to the mix
- (3/10) U-PHIL: A Further Comment on Gelman by Christian Henning (UCL, Statistics)
- (3/11) Blogologue*
- (3/11) RMM-7: Commentary and Response on Senn published: Special Volume on Stat Scie Meets Phil Sci
- (3/14) Objectivity (#4) and the “Argument From Discretion”
- (3/18) Objectivity (#5): Three Reactions to the Challenge of Objectivity (in inference)
- (3/22) Generic Drugs Resistant to Lawsuits
- (3/25) The New York Times Goes to War Against Generic Drug Manufacturers: Schactman
- (3/26) Announcement: Philosophy of Scientific Experiment Conference
- (3/28) Comment on the Barnard and Copas (2002) Empirical Example: Aris Spanos

**April 2012**

- (4/1) Philosophy of Statistics: Retraction Watch, Vol. 1, No. 1
- (4/3) History and Philosophy of Evidence-Based Health Care
- (4/4) Fallacy of Rejection and the Fallacy of Nouvelle Cuisine
- (4/6) Going Where the Data Take Us
- (4/9) N. Schachtman: Judge Posner’s Digression on Regression
- (4/10) Call for papers: Philosepi?
- (4/12) That Promissory Note From Lehmann’s Letter; Schmidt to Speak
- (4/15) U-Phil: Deconstructing Dynamic Dutch-Books?
- (4/16) A. Spanos: Jerzy Neyman and his Enduring Legacy
- (4/17) Earlier U-Phils and Deconstructions
- (4/18) Jean Miller: Happy Sweet 16 to EGEK! (Shalizi Review: “We have Ways of Making You Talk”)
- (4/21) Jean Miller: Happy Sweet 16 to EGEK #2 (Hasok Chang Review of EGEK)
- (4/23) U-Phil: Jon Williamson: Deconstructing DynamicDutch Books
- (4/25) Matching Numbers Across Philosophies
- (4/28) Comedy Hour at the Bayesian Retreat: P-values versus Posteriors

**May 2012**

- (5/1) Stephen Senn: A Paradox of Prior Probabilities
- (5/5) Comedy Hour at the Bayesian (Epistemology) Retreat: Highly Probable vs Highly Probed
- (5/8) LSE Summer Seminar: Contemporary Problems in Philosophy of Statistics
- (5/10) Excerpts from S. Senn’s Letter on “Replication, p-values and Evidence,”
- (5/12) Saturday Night Brainstorming & Task Forces: The TFSI on
NHST

- (5/17) Do CIs Avoid Fallacies of Tests? Reforming the Reformers
- (5/20) Betting, Bookies and Bayes: Does it Not Matter?
- (5/23) Does the Bayesian Diet Call For Error-Statistical Supplements?
- (5/24) An Error-Statistical Philosophy of Evidence (PH500, LSE Seminar)
- (5/28) Painting-by-Number #1
- (5/31) Metablog: May 31, 2012

**June 2012**

- (6/2) Anything Tests Can do, CIs do Better; CIs Do Anything Better than Tests?* (reforming the reformers cont.)
- (6/6) Review of Error and Inference by C. Hennig

- (6/9) U-Phil: Is the Use of Power* Open to a Power Paradox?
- (6/12) CMU Workshop on Foundations for Ockham’s Razor
- (6/14) Answer to the Homework & a New Exercise
- (6/15) Scratch Work for a SEV Homework Problem
- (6/17) Repost (5/17/12): Do CIs Avoid Fallacies of Tests? Reforming the Reformers
- (6/17) G. Cumming Response: The New Statistics
- (6/19) The Error Statistical Philosophy and The Practice of Bayesian Statistics: Comments on Gelman and Shalizi
- (6/23) Promissory Note
- (6/26) Deviates, Sloths, and Exiles: Philosophical Remarks on the Ockham’s Razor Workshop*
- (6/29) Further Reflections on Simplicity: Mechanisms

**July 2012**

- (7/1) PhilStatLaw: “Let’s Require Health Claims to Be ‘Evidence Based’” (Schachtman)
- (7/2) More from the Foundations of Simplicity Workshop*
- (7/3) Elliott Sober Responds on Foundations of Simplicity
- (7/4) Comment on Falsification
- (7/6) Vladimir Cherkassky Responds on Foundations of Simplicity
- (7/8) Metablog: Up and Coming
- (7/9) Stephen Senn: Randomization, ratios and rationality: rescuing the randomized clinical trial from its critics
- (7/10) PhilStatLaw: Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence (3d ed) on Statistical Significance (Schachtman)
- (7/11) Is Particle Physics Bad Science?
- (7/12) Dennis Lindley’s “Philosophy of Statistics”
- (7/15) Deconstructing Larry Wasserman – it starts like this…
- (7/16) Peter Grünwald: Follow-up on Cherkassky’s Comments
- (7/19) New Kvetch Posted 7/18/12
- (7/21) “Always the last place you look!”
- (7/22) Clark Glymour: The Theory of Search Is the Economics of Discovery (part 1)
- (7/23) Clark Glymour: The Theory of Search Is the Economics of Discovery (part 2)
- (7/27) P-values as Frequentist Measures
- (7/28) U-PHIL: Deconstructing Larry Wasserman
- (7/31) What’s in a Name? (Gelman’s blog)

**August 2012**

- (8/2) Stephen Senn: Fooling the Patient: an Unethical Use of Placebo? (Phil/Stat/Med)
- (8/5) A “Bayesian Bear” rejoinder practically writes itself…
- (8/6) Bad news bears: Bayesian rejoinder
- (8/8) U-PHIL: Aris Spanos on Larry Wasserman
- (8/10) U-PHIL: Hennig and Gelman on Wasserman (2011)
- (8/11) E.S. Pearson Birthday
- (8/11) U-PHIL: Wasserman Replies to Spanos and Hennig
- (8/13) U-Phil: (concluding the deconstruction) Wasserman/Mayo
- (8/14) Good Scientist Badge of Approval?
- (8/16) E.S. Pearson’s Statistical Philosophy
- (8/18) A. Spanos: Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics
- (8/20) Higgs Boson: Bayesian “Digest and Discussion”
- (8/22) Scalar or Technicolor? S. Weinberg, “Why the Higgs?”
- (8/27) Knowledge/evidence not captured by mathematical prob.
- (8/30) Frequentist Pursuit
- (8/31) Failing to Apply vs Violating the Likelihood Principle

**September 2012**

- (9/3) After dinner Bayesian comedy hour. …
- (9/6) Stephen Senn: The nuisance parameter nuisance
- (9/8) Metablog: One-Year Anniversary
- (9/8) Return to the comedy hour … (on significance tests)
- (9/12) U-Phil (9/25/12) How should “prior information” enter in statistical inference?
- (9/15) More on using background info
- (9/19) Barnard, background info/intentions
- (9/22) Statistics and ESP research (Diaconis)
- (9/25) Insevere tests and pseudoscience
- (9/26) Levels of Inquiry
- (9/29) Stephen Senn: On the (ir)relevance of stopping rules in meta-analysis
- (9/30) Letter from George (Barnard)

**October 2012**

- (10/02)PhilStatLaw: Infections in the court
- (10/05) Metablog: Rejected posts (blog within a blog)
- (10/05) Deconstructing Gelman, Part 1: “A Bayesian wants everybody else to be a non-Bayesian.”
- (10/07) Deconstructing Gelman, Part 2: Using prior information
- (10/09) Last part (3) of the deconstruction: beauty and background knowledge
- (10/12) U-Phils: Hennig and Aktunc on Gelman 2012
- (10/13) Mayo Responds to U-Phils on Background Information
- (10/15) New Kvetch: race-based academics in Fla
- (10/17) RMM-8: New Mayo paper: “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2 (Shallow vs Deep Explorations)”
- (10/18) Query
- (10/18) Mayo: (first 2 sections) “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2”
- (10/20) Mayo: (section 5) “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2”
- (10/21) Mayo: (section 6) “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2”
- (10/22) Mayo: (section 7) “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2”
- (10/24) Announcement: Ontology and Methodology (Virginia Tech)
- (10/25) New rejected post: phil faux
- (10/27) New rejected post: “Are you butter off now?”
- (10/29) Reblogging: Oxford Gaol: Statistical Bogeymen
- (10/29) Type 1 and 2 errors: Frankenstorm
- (10/30) Guest Post: Greg Gandenberger, “Evidential Meaning and Methods of Inference”
- (10/31) U-Phil: Blogging the Likelihood Principle: New Summary

**November 2012**

- (11/04) PhilStat: So you’re looking for a Ph.D. dissertation topic?
- (11/07) Seminars at the London School of Economics: Contemporary Problems in Philosophy of Statistics
- (11/10) Bad news bears: ‘Bayesian bear’ rejoinder – reblog
- (11/12) new rejected post: kvetch (and query)
- (11/14) continuing the comments. …
- (11/16) Philosophy of Science Association (PSA) 2012 Program
- (11/18) What is Bayesian/Frequentist Inference? (from the normal deviate)
- (11/18) New kvetch/PhilStock: Rapiscan Scam
- (11/19) Comments on Wasserman’s “what is Bayesian/frequentist inference?”
- (11/21) Irony and Bad Faith: Deconstructing Bayesians – reblog
- (11/23) Announcement: 28 November: My Seminar at the LSE (Contemporary PhilStat)
- (11/25) Likelihood Links [for 28 Nov. Seminar and Current U-Phil]
- (11/28) Blogging Birnbaum: on Statistical Methods in Scientific Inference
- (11/30) Error Statistics (brief overview)

**December 2012**

- (12/2) Normal Deviate’s blog on false discovery rates
- (12/2) Statistical Science meets Philosophy of Science
- (12/3) Mayo Commentary on Gelman & Robert’s paper
- (12/6) Announcement: U-Phil Extension: Blogging the Likelihood Principle
- (12/7) Nov. Palindrome Winner: Kepler
- (12/8) Don’t Birnbaumize that experiment my friend*–updated reblog
- (12/11) Announcement: Prof. Stephen Senn to lead LSE grad seminar: 12-12-12
- (12/11) Mayo on S. Senn: “How Can We Cultivate Senn’s-Ability?”
- (12/13) “Bad statistics”: crime or free speech?
- (12/14) PhilStat/Law (“Bad Statistics” Cont.)
- (12/17) PhilStat/Law/Stock: multiplicity and duplicity
- (12/19) PhilStat/Law/Stock: more on “bad statistics”: Schachtman
- (12/21) Rejected Post: Clinical Trial Statistics Doomed by Mayan Apocalypse?
- (12/22) Msc kvetch: unfair but lawful discrimination (vs the irresistibly attractive)
- (12/24) 13 well-worn criticisms of significance tests (and how to avoid them)
- (12/27) 3 msc kvetches on the blog bagel circuit
- (12/30) An established probability theory for hair comparison?“–is not — and never was”
- (12/31) Midnight with Birnbaum-reblog

**January 2013**

- (1/2) Severity as a ‘Metastatistical’ Assessment
- (1/4) Severity Calculator
- (1/6) Guest post: Bad Pharma? (S. Senn)
- (1/9) RCTs, skeptics, and evidence-based policy
- (1/10) James M. Buchanan
- (1/11) Aris Spanos: James M. Buchanan: a scholar, teacher and friend
- (1/12) Error Statistics Blog: Table of Contents
- (1/15) Ontology & Methodology: Second call for Abstracts, Papers
- (1/18) New Kvetch/PhilStock
- (1/19) Saturday Night Brainstorming and Task Forces: (2013) TFSI on NHST
- (1/22) New PhilStock
- (1/23) P-values as posterior odds?
- (1/26) Coming up: December U-Phil Contributions….
- (1/27) U-Phil: S. Fletcher & N.Jinn
- (1/30) U-Phil: J. A. Miller: Blogging the SLP

**February 2013**

- (2/2) U-Phil: Ton o’ Bricks
- (2/4) January Palindrome Winner
- (2/6) Mark Chang (now) gets it right about circularity
- (2/8) From Gelman’s blog: philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics
- (2/9) New kvetch: Filly Fury
- (2/10) U-PHIL: Gandenberger & Hennig: Blogging Birnbaum’s Proof

- (2/11) U-Phil: Mayo’s response to Hennig and Gandenberger
- (2/13) Statistics as a Counter to Heavyweights…who wrote this?
- (2/16) Fisher and Neyman after anger management?
- (2/17) R. A. Fisher: how an outsider revolutionized statistics
- (2/20) Fisher: from ‘Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood’
- (2/23) Stephen Senn: Also Smith and Jones
- (2/26) PhilStock: DO < $70
- (2/26) Statistically speaking…

**March 2013**

- (3/1) capitalizing on chance
- (3/4) Big Data or Pig Data?
- (3/7) Stephen Senn: Casting Stones
- (3/10) Blog Contents 2013 (Jan & Feb)
- (3/11) S. Stanley Young: Scientific Integrity and Transparency
- (3/13) Risk-Based Security: Knives and Axes
- (3/15) Normal Deviate: Double Misunderstandings About p-values
- (3/17) Update on Higgs data analysis: statistical flukes (1)
- (3/21) Telling the public why the Higgs particle matters
- (3/23) Is NASA suspending public education and outreach?
- (3/27) Higgs analysis and statistical flukes (part 2)
- (3/31) possible progress on the comedy hour circuit?

**April 2013**

- (4/1) Flawed Science and Stapel: Priming for a Backlash?
- (4/4) Guest Post. Kent Staley: On the Five Sigma Standard in Particle Physics
- (4/6) Who is allowed to cheat? I.J. Good and that after dinner comedy hour….
- (4/10) Statistical flukes (3): triggering the switch to throw out 99.99% of the data
- (4/11) O & M Conference (upcoming) and a bit more on triggering from a participant…..
- (4/14) Does statistics have an ontology? Does it need one? (draft 2)
- (4/19) Stephen Senn: When relevance is irrelevant
- (4/22) Majority say no to inflight cell phone use, knives, toy bats, bow and arrows, according to survey
- (4/23) PhilStock: Applectomy? (rejected post)
- (4/25) Blog Contents 2013 (March)
- (4/27) Getting Credit (or blame) for Something You Didn’t Do (BP oil spill, comedy hour)
- (4/29) What should philosophers of science do? (falsification, Higgs, statistics, Marilyn)

**May 2013**

- (5/3) Schedule for Ontology & Methodology, 2013
- (5/6) Professorships in Scandal?
- (5/9) If it’s called the “The High Quality Research Act,” then ….
- (5/13) ‘No-Shame’ Psychics Keep Their Predictions Vague: New Rejected post
- (5/14) “A sense of security regarding the future of statistical science…” Anon review of Error and Inference
- (5/18) Gandenberger on Ontology and Methodology (May 4) Conference: Virginia Tech
- (5/19) Mayo: Meanderings on the Onto-Methodology Conference
- (5/22) Mayo’s slides from the Onto-Meth conference
- (5/24) Gelman sides w/ Neyman over Fisher in relation to a famous blow-up
- (5/26) Schachtman: High, Higher, Highest Quality Research Act
- (5/27) A.Birnbaum: Statistical Methods in Scientific Inference
- (5/29) K. Staley: review of Error & Inference

**June 2013
**

- (6/1) Winner of May Palindrome Contest
- (6/1) Some statistical dirty laundry
- (6/5) Do CIs Avoid Fallacies of Tests? Reforming the Reformers (Reblog 5/17/12):
- (6/6) PhilStock: Topsy-Turvy Game
- (6/6) Anything Tests Can do, CIs do Better; CIs Do Anything Better than Tests?* (reforming the reformers cont.)
- (6/8) Richard Gill: “Integrity or fraud… or just questionable research practices?”
- (6/11) Mayo: comment on the repressed memory research
- (6/14) P-values can’t be trusted except when used to argue that p-values can’t be trusted!
- (6/19) PhilStock: The Great Taper Caper
- (6/19) Stanley Young: better p-values through randomization in microarrays
- (6/22) What do these share in common: m&ms, limbo stick, ovulation, Dale Carnegie? Sat night potpourri
- (6/26) Why I am not a “dualist” in the sense of Sander Greenland
- (6/29) Palindrome “contest” contest
- (6/30) Blog Contents: mid-year

**July 2013**

- (7/3) Phil/Stat/Law: 50 Shades of gray between error and fraud
- (7/6) Bad news bears: ‘Bayesian bear’ rejoinder–reblog mashup
- (7/10) PhilStatLaw: Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence (3d ed) on Statistical Significance (Schachtman)
- (7/11) Is Particle Physics Bad Science? (memory lane)
- (7/13) Professor of Philosophy Resigns over Sexual Misconduct (rejected post)
- (7/14) Stephen Senn: Indefinite irrelevance
- (7/17) Phil/Stat/Law: What Bayesian prior should a jury have? (Schachtman)
- (7/19) Msc Kvetch: A question on the Martin-Zimmerman case we do not hear
- (7/20) Guest Post: Larry Laudan. Why Presuming Innocence is Not a Bayesian Prior
- (7/23) Background Knowledge: Not to Quantify, But To Avoid Being Misled By, Subjective Beliefs
- (7/26) New Version: On the Birnbaum argument for the SLP: Slides for JSM talk

**August 2013**

- (8/1) Blogging (flogging?) the SLP: Response to Reply- Xi’an Robert
- (8/5) At the JSM: 2013 International Year of Statistics
- (8/6) What did Nate Silver just say? Blogging the JSM
- (8/9) 11
^{th}bullet, multiple choice question, and last thoughts on the JSM - (8/11) E.S. Pearson: “Ideas came into my head as I sat on a gate overlooking an experimental blackcurrant plot”
- (8/13) Blogging E.S. Pearson’s Statistical Philosophy
- (8/15) A. Spanos: Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics
- (8/17) Gandenberger: How to Do Philosophy That Matters (guest post)
- (8/21) Blog contents: July, 2013
- (8/22) PhilStock: Flash Freeze
- (8/22) A critical look at “critical thinking”: deduction and induction
- (8/28) Is being lonely unnatural for slim particles? A statistical argument
- (8/31) Overheard at the comedy hour at the Bayesian retreat-2 years on

**September 2013**

- (9/2) Is Bayesian Inference a Religion?
- (9/3) Gelman’s response to my comment on Jaynes
- (9/5) Stephen Senn: Open Season (guest post)
- (9/7) First blog: “Did you hear the one about the frequentist…”? and “Frequentists in Exile”
- (9/10) Peircean Induction and the Error-Correcting Thesis (Part I)
- (9/10) (Part 2) Peircean Induction and the Error-Correcting Thesis
- (9/12) (Part 3) Peircean Induction and the Error-Correcting Thesis
- (9/14) “When Bayesian Inference Shatters” Owhadi, Scovel, and Sullivan (guest post)
- (9/18) PhilStock: Bad news is good news on Wall St.
- (9/18) How to hire a fraudster chauffeur
- (9/22) Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”
- (9/23) Barnard’s Birthday: background, likelihood principle, intentions
- (9/24) Gelman est efffectivement une erreur statistician
- (9/26) Blog Contents: August 2013
- (9/29) Highly probable vs highly probed: Bayesian/ error statistical differences

**October 2013**

- (10/3) Will the Real Junk Science Please Stand Up? (critical thinking)
- (10/5) Was Janina Hosiasson pulling Harold Jeffreys’ leg?
- (10/9) Bad statistics: crime or free speech (II)? Harkonen update: Phil Stat / Law /Stock
- (10/12) Sir David Cox: a comment on the post, “Was Hosiasson pulling Jeffreys’ leg?”
- (10/19) Blog Contents: September 2013
- (10/19) Bayesian Confirmation Philosophy and the Tacking Paradox (iv)*
- (10/25) Bayesian confirmation theory: example from last post…
- (10/26) Comedy hour at the Bayesian (epistemology) retreat: highly probable vs highly probed (vs what ?)
- (10/31) WHIPPING BOYS AND WITCH HUNTERS

**November 2013**

- (11/2) Oxford Gaol: Statistical Bogeymen
- (11/4) Forthcoming paper on the strong likelihood principle
- (11/9) Null Effects and Replication
- (11/9) Beware of questionable front page articles warning you to beware of questionable front page articles (iii)
- (11/13) T. Kepler: “Trouble with ‘Trouble at the Lab’?” (guest post)
- (11/16) PhilStock: No-pain bull
- (11/16) S. Stanley Young: More Trouble with ‘Trouble in the Lab’ (Guest post)
- (11/18) Lucien Le Cam: “The Bayesians hold the Magic”
- (11/20) Erich Lehmann: Statistician and Poet
- (11/23) Probability that it is a statistical fluke [i]
- (11/27) “The probability that it be a statistical fluke” [iia]
- (11/30) Saturday night comedy at the “Bayesian Boy” diary (rejected post*)

**December 2013**

- (12/3) Stephen Senn: Dawid’s Selection Paradox (guest post)
- (12/7) FDA’s New Pharmacovigilance
- (12/9) Why ecologists might want to read more philosophy of science (UPDATED)
- (12/11) Blog Contents for Oct and Nov 2013
- (12/14) The error statistician has a complex, messy, subtle, ingenious piece-meal approach
- (12/15) Surprising Facts about Surprising Facts
- (12/19) A. Spanos lecture on “Frequentist Hypothesis Testing”
- (12/24) U-Phil: Deconstructions [of J. Berger]: Irony & Bad Faith 3
- (12/25) “Bad Arguments” (a book by Ali Almossawi)
- (12/26) Mascots of Bayesneon statistics (rejected post)
- (12/27) Deconstructing Larry Wasserman
- (12/28) More on deconstructing Larry Wasserman (Aris Spanos)
- (12/28) Wasserman on Wasserman: Update! December 28, 2013
- (12/31) Midnight With Birnbaum (Happy New Year)

**January 2014
**

- (1/2) Winner of the December 2013 Palindrome Book Contest (Rejected Post)
- (1/3) Error Statistics Philosophy: 2013
- (1/4) Your 2014 wishing well. …
- (1/7) “Philosophy of Statistical Inference and Modeling” New Course: Spring 2014: Mayo and Spanos: (Virginia Tech)
- (1/11) Two Severities? (PhilSci and PhilStat)
- (1/14) Statistical Science meets Philosophy of Science: blog beginnings
- (1/16) Objective/subjective, dirty hands and all that: Gelman/Wasserman blogolog (ii)
- (1/18) Sir Harold Jeffreys’ (tail area) one-liner: Sat night comedy [draft ii]
- (1/22) Phil6334: “Philosophy of Statistical Inference and Modeling” New Course: Spring 2014: Mayo and Spanos (Virginia Tech) UPDATE: JAN 21
- (1/24) Phil 6334: Slides from Day #1: Four Waves in Philosophy of Statistics
- (1/25) U-Phil (Phil 6334) How should “prior information” enter in statistical inference?
- (1/27) Winner of the January 2014 palindrome contest (rejected post)
- (1/29) BOSTON COLLOQUIUM FOR PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE: Revisiting the Foundations of Statistics
- (1/31) Phil 6334: Day #2 Slides

**February 2014**

- (2/1) Comedy hour at the Bayesian (epistemology) retreat: highly probable vs highly probed (vs B-boosts)
- (2/3) PhilStock: Bad news is bad news on Wall St. (rejected post)
- (2/5) “Probabilism as an Obstacle to Statistical Fraud-Busting” (draft iii)
- (2/9) Phil6334: Day #3: Feb 6, 2014
- (2/10) Is it true that all epistemic principles can only be defended circularly? A Popperian puzzle
- (2/12) Phil6334: Popper self-test
- (2/13) Phil 6334 Statistical Snow Sculpture
- (2/14) January Blog Table of Contents
- (2/15) Fisher and Neyman after anger management?
- (2/17) R. A. Fisher: how an outsider revolutionized statistics
- (2/18) Aris Spanos: The Enduring Legacy of R. A. Fisher
- (2/20) R.A. Fisher: ‘Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood’
- (2/21) STEPHEN SENN: Fisher’s alternative to the alternative
- (2/22) Sir Harold Jeffreys’ (tail-area) one-liner: Sat night comedy [draft ii]
- (2/24) Phil6334: February 20, 2014 (Spanos): Day #5
- (2/26) Winner of the February 2014 palindrome contest (rejected post)
- (2/26) Phil6334: Feb 24, 2014: Induction, Popper and pseudoscience (Day #4)

**March 2014**

- (3/1) Cosma Shalizi gets tenure (at last!) (metastat announcement)
- (3/2) Significance tests and frequentist principles of evidence: Phil6334 Day #6
- (3/3) Capitalizing on Chance (ii)
- (3/4) Power, power everywhere–(it) may not be what you think! [illustration]
- (3/8) Msc kvetch: You are fully dressed (even under you clothes)?
- (3/8) Fallacy of Rejection and the Fallacy of Nouvelle Cuisine
- (3/11) Phil6334 Day #7: Selection effects, the Higgs and 5 sigma, Power
- (3/12) Get empowered to detect power howlers
- (3/15) New SEV calculator (guest app: Durvasula)
- (3/17) Stephen Senn: “Delta Force: To what extent is clinical relevance relevant?” (Guest Post)
- (3/19) Power taboos: Statue of Liberty, Senn, Neyman, Carnap, Severity
- (3/22) Fallacies of statistics & statistics journalism, and how to avoid them: Summary & Slides Day #8 (Phil 6334)
- (3/25) The Unexpected Way Philosophy Majors Are Changing The World Of Business
- (3/26) Phil6334:Misspecification Testing: Ordering From A Full Diagnostic Menu (part 1)
- (3/28) Severe osteometric probing of skeletal remains: John Byrd
- (3/29) Winner of the March 2014 palindrome contest (rejected post)
- (3/30) Phil6334: March 26, philosophy of misspecification testing (Day #9 slides)

**April 2014**

- (4/1) Skeptical and enthusiastic Bayesian priors for beliefs about insane asylum renovations at Dept of Homeland Security: I’m skeptical and unenthusiastic
- (4/3) Self-referential blogpost (conditionally accepted*)
- (4/5) Who is allowed to cheat? I.J. Good and that after dinner comedy hour. . ..
- (4/6) Phil6334: Duhem’s Problem, highly probable vs highly probed; Day #9 Slides
- (4/8) “Out Damned Pseudoscience: Non-significant results are the new ‘Significant’ results!” (update)
- (4/12) “Murder or Coincidence?” Statistical Error in Court: Richard Gill (TEDx video)
- (4/14) Phil6334: Notes on Bayesian Inference: Day #11 Slides
- (4/16) A. Spanos: Jerzy Neyman and his Enduring Legacy
- (4/17) Duality: Confidence intervals and the severity of tests
- (4/19) Getting Credit (or blame) for Something You Didn’t Do (BP oil spill)
- (4/21) Phil 6334: Foundations of statistics and its consequences: Day#12
- (4/23) Phil 6334 Visitor: S. Stanley Young, “Statistics and Scientific Integrity”
- (4/26) Reliability and Reproducibility: Fraudulent p-values through multiple testing (and other biases): S. Stanley Young (Phil 6334: Day #13)
- (4/30) Able Stats Elba: 3 Palindrome nominees for April! (rejected post)

**May 2014**

- (5/1) Putting the brakes on the breakthrough: An informal look at the
argument for the Likelihood Principle

- (5/3) You can only become coherent by ‘converting’ non-Bayesianly
- (5/6) Winner of April Palindrome contest: Lori Wike
- (5/7) A. Spanos: Talking back to the critics using error statistics (Phil6334)
- (5/10) Who ya gonna call for statistical Fraudbusting? R.A. Fisher, P-values, and error statistics (again)
- (5/15) Scientism and Statisticism: a conference* (i)
- (5/17) Deconstructing Andrew Gelman: “A Bayesian wants everybody else to be a non-Bayesian.”
- (5/20) The Science Wars & the Statistics Wars: More from the Scientism workshop
- (5/25) Blog Table of Contents: March and April 2014
- (5/27) Allan Birnbaum, Philosophical Error Statistician: 27 May 1923 – 1 July 1976

- (5/31) What have we learned from the Anil Potti training and test data frameworks? Part 1 (draft 2)

**June 2014**

- (6/5) Stephen Senn: Blood Simple? The complicated and controversial world of bioequivalence (guest post)
- (6/9) “The medical press must become irrelevant to publication of clinical trials.”
- (6/11) A. Spanos: “Recurring controversies about P values and confidence intervals revisited”
- (6/14) “Statistical Science and Philosophy of Science: where should they meet?”
- (6/21) Big Bayes Stories? (draft ii)
- (6/25) Blog Contents: May 2014
- (6/28) Sir David Hendry Gets Lifetime Achievement Award
- (6/30) Some ironies in the ‘replication crisis’ in social psychology (4
^{th}and final installment)

**July 2014**

- (7/7) Winner of June Palindrome Contest: Lori Wike
- (7/8) Higgs Discovery 2 years on (1: “Is particle physics bad science?”)
- (7/10) Higgs Discovery 2 years on (2: Higgs analysis and statistical flukes)
- (7/14) “P-values overstate the evidence against the null”: legit or fallacious? (revised)
- (7/23) Continued:”P-values overstate the evidence against the null”: legit or fallacious?
- (7/26) S. Senn: “Responder despondency: myths of personalized medicine” (Guest Post)
- (7/31) Roger Berger on Stephen Senn’s “Blood Simple” with a response by Senn (Guest Posts)

**August 2014**

- (08/03) Blogging Boston JSM2014?
- (08/05) Neyman, Power, and Severity
- (08/06) What did Nate Silver just say? Blogging the JSM 2013
- (08/09) Winner of July Palindrome: Manan Shah
- (08/09) Blog Contents: June and July 2014
- (08/11) Egon Pearson’s Heresy
- (08/17) Are P Values Error Probabilities? Or, “It’s the methods, stupid!” (2
^{nd}install) - (08/23) Has Philosophical Superficiality Harmed Science?
- (08/29) BREAKING THE LAW! (of likelihood): to keep their fit measures in line (A), (B 2
^{nd})

**September 2014**

- (9/30) Letter from George (Barnard)
- (9/27) Should a “Fictionfactory” peepshow be barred from a festival on “Truth and Reality”? Diederik Stapel says no (rejected post)
- (9/23) G.A. Barnard: The Bayesian “catch-all” factor: probability vs likelihood
- (9/21) Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”
- (9/18) Uncle Sam wants YOU to help with scientific reproducibility!
- (9/15) A crucial missing piece in the Pistorius trial? (2): my answer (Rejected Post)
- (9/12) “The Supernal Powers Withhold Their Hands And Let Me Alone”: C.S. Peirce
- (9/6)
The Likelihood Principle issue is out…!*Statistical Science:* - (9/4) All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy Contents-3 years on
- (9/3) 3 in blog years: Sept 3 is 3rd anniversary of errorstatistics.com

**October 2014**

**10/01**Oy Faye! What are the odds of not conflating simple conditional probability and likelihood with Bayesian success stories?**10/05**Diederik Stapel hired to teach “social philosophy” because students got tired of success stories… or something (rejected post)**10/07**A (Jan 14, 2014) interview with Sir David Cox by “Statistics Views”**10/10**BREAKING THE (Royall) LAW! (of likelihood) (C)**10/14**Gelman recognizes his error-statistical (Bayesian) foundations**10/18**PhilStat/Law: Nathan Schachtman: Acknowledging Multiple Comparisons in Statistical Analysis: Courts Can and Must**10/22**September 2014: Blog Contents**10/25**3 YEARS AGO: MONTHLY MEMORY LANE**10/26**To Quarantine or not to Quarantine?: Science & Policy in the time of Ebola**10/31**Oxford Gaol: Statistical Bogeymen

**November 2014**

**11/01**Philosophy of Science Assoc. (PSA) symposium on Philosophy of Statistics in the Higgs Experiments “How Many Sigmas to Discovery?”**11/09**“Statistical Flukes, the Higgs Discovery, and 5 Sigma” at the PSA**11/11**The Amazing Randi’s Million Dollar Challenge**11/12**A biased report of the probability of a statistical fluke: Is it cheating?**11/15**Why the Law of Likelihood is bankrupt–as an account of evidence**11/18**Lucien Le Cam: “The Bayesians Hold the Magic”**11/20**Erich Lehmann: Statistician and Poet**11/22**Msc Kvetch: “You are a Medical Statistic”, or “How Medical Care Is Being Corrupted”**11/25**How likelihoodists exaggerate evidence from statistical tests**11/30**3 YEARS AGO: MONTHLY (Nov.) MEMORY LANE

**December 2014**

**12/02**My Rutgers Seminar: tomorrow, December 3, on philosophy of statistics**12/04**“Probing with Severity: Beyond Bayesian Probabilism and Frequentist Performance” (Dec 3 Seminar slides)**12/06**How power morcellators inadvertently spread uterine cancer**12/11**Msc. Kvetch: What does it mean for a battle to be “lost by the media”?**12/13**S. Stanley Young: Are there mortality co-benefits to the Clean Power Plan? It depends. (Guest Post)**12/17**Announcing Kent Staley’s new book, An Introduction to the Philosophy of Science (CUP)**12/21**Derailment: Faking Science: A true story of academic fraud, by Diederik Stapel (translated into English)**12/23**All I want for Chrismukkah is that critics & “reformers” quit howlers oftesting (after 3 yrs of blogging)! So here’s Aris Spanos “Talking Back!”

**12/26**3 YEARS AGO: MONTHLY (Dec.) MEMORY LANE**12/29**To raise the power of a test is to lower (not raise) the “hurdle” for rejecting the null (Ziliac and McCloskey 3 years on)**12/31**Midnight With Birnbaum (Happy New Year)

**January 2015
**

**01/02**Blog Contents: Oct.- Dec. 2014**01/03**No headache power (for Deirdre)**01/04**Significance Levels are Made a Whipping Boy on Climate Change Evidence: Is .05 Too Strict? (Schachtman on Oreskes)**01/07**“When Bayesian Inference Shatters” Owhadi, Scovel, and Sullivan (reblog)**01/08**On the Brittleness of Bayesian Inference–An Update: Owhadi and Scovel (guest post)**01/12**“Only those samples which fit the model best in cross validation were included” (whistleblower) “I suspect that we likely disagree with what constitutes validation” (Potti and Nevins**)****01/16**Winners of the December 2014 Palindrome Contest: TWO!**01/18**Power Analysis and Non-Replicability: If bad statistics is prevalent in your field, does it follow you can’t be guilty of scientific fraud?**01/21**Some statistical dirty laundry**01/24**What do these share in common: m&ms, limbo stick, ovulation, Dale Carnegie? Sat night potpourri- 01/26 Trial on Anil Potti’s (clinical) Trial Scandal Postponed Because Lawyers Get the Sniffles (updated)
**01/27**3 YEARS AGO: (JANUARY 2012) MEMORY LANE**01/31**Saturday Night Brainstorming and Task Forces: (4th draft)

**February 2015**

**02/05**Stephen Senn: Is Pooling Fooling? (Guest Post)**02/10**What’s wrong with taking (1 – β)/α, as a likelihood ratio comparing H0 and H1?**02/13**Induction, Popper and Pseudoscience**02/16**Continuing the discussion on truncation, Bayesian convergence and testing of priors**02/16**R. A. Fisher: ‘Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood': Just before breaking up (with N-P)**02/17**R. A. Fisher: How an Outsider Revolutionized Statistics (Aris Spanos)**02/19**Stephen Senn: Fisher’s Alternative to the Alternative**02/21**Sir Harold Jeffreys’ (tail area) one-liner: Saturday night comedy (b)**02/25**3 YEARS AGO: (FEBRUARY 2012) MEMORY LANE**02/27**Big Data is the New Phrenology?

[i]Table of Contents compiled by N. Jinn & J. Miller)*

*I thank Jean Miller for her assiduous work on the blog, and all contributors and readers for helping “frequentists in exile” to feel (and truly become) less exiled–wherever they may be!