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For three of the last four years, it was not feasible to actually revisit that spot in the road, looking to get into a strange-looking taxi, to head to “Midnight With Birnbaum”. Even last year was iffy. But this year I will, and I’m about to leave at 9pm. (The pic on the left is the only blurry image I have of the club I’m taken to.) My book Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars (CUP, 2018) doesn’t include the argument from my article in Statistical Science (“On the Birnbaum Argument for the Strong Likelihood Principle”), but you can read it at that link along with commentaries by A. P. David, Michael Evans, Martin and Liu, D. A. S. Fraser, Jan Hannig, and Jan Bjornstad. David Cox, who very sadly did in January 2022, is the one who encouraged me to write and publish it. (The first David R. Cox Foundations of Statistics Prize will be awarded at the JSM 2023.) Not only does the (Strong) Likelihood Principle (LP or SLP) remain at the heart of many of the criticisms of Neyman-Pearson (N-P) statistics and of error statistics in general, but a decade after my 2014 paper, it is more central than ever–even if it is often unrecognized. Continue reading
Error Statistics Philosophy 