# Monthly Archives: August 2013

## Overheard at the comedy hour at the Bayesian retreat-2 years on

It’s nearly two years since I began this blog, and some are wondering if I’ve covered all the howlers thrust our way? Sadly, no. So since it’s Saturday night here at the Elba Room, let’s listen in on one of the more puzzling fallacies–one that I let my introductory logic students spot…

“Did you hear the one about significance testers sawing off their own limbs?

‘Suppose we decide that the effect exists; that is, we reject [null hypothesis] H0. Surely, we must also reject probabilities conditional on H0, but then what was the logical justification for the decision? Orthodox logic saws off its own limb.’ “

Ha! Ha! By this reasoning, no hypothetical testing or falsification could ever occur. As soon as H is falsified, the grounds for falsifying disappear! If H: all swans are white, then if I see a black swan, H is falsified. But according to this critic, we can no longer assume the deduced prediction from H! What? The entailment from a hypothesis or model H to x, whether it is statistical or deductive, does not go away after the hypothesis or model H is rejected on grounds that the prediction is not born out.[i] When particle physicists deduce that the events could not be due to background alone, the statistical derivation (to what would be expected under H: background alone) does not get sawed off when H is denied!

The above quote is from Jaynes (p. 524) writing on the pathologies of “orthodox” tests. How does someone writing a great big book on “the logic of science” get this wrong? To be generous, we may assume that in the heat of criticism, his logic takes a wild holiday. Unfortunately, I’ve heard several of his acolytes repeat this. There’s a serious misunderstanding of how hypothetical reasoning works: 6 lashes, and a pledge not to uncritically accept what critics say, however much you revere them.
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Jaynes, E. T. 2003. Probability Theory: The Logic of Science. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

[i]Of course there is also no warrant for inferring an alternative hypothesis, unless it is a non-null warranted with severity—even if the alternative entails the existence of a real effect. (Statistical significance is not substantive significance—it is by now cliché . Search this blog for fallacies of rejection.)

A few previous comedy hour posts:

(09/03/11) Overheard at the comedy hour at the Bayesian retreat
(4/4/12) Jackie Mason: Fallacy of Rejection and the Fallacy of Nouvelle Cuisine
(04/28/12) Comedy Hour at the Bayesian Retreat: P-values versus Posteriors

(05/05/12) Comedy Hour at the Bayesian (Epistemology) Retreat: Highly Probable vs Highly Probed
(09/03/12) After dinner Bayesian comedy hour…. (1 year anniversary)
(09/08/12) Return to the comedy hour…(on significance tests)
(04/06/13) Who is allowed to cheat? I.J. Good and that after dinner comedy hour….
(04/27/13) Getting Credit (or blame) for Something You Didn’t Do (BP oil spill, comedy hour)

Categories: Comedy, Error Statistics, Statistics

## Is being lonely unnatural for slim particles? A statistical argument

Being lonely is unnatural, at least if you are a slim Higgs particle (with mass on the order of the type recently discovered)–according to an intriguing statistical argument given by particle physicist Matt Strassler (sketched below). Strassler sets out “to explain the scientific argument as to why it is so unnatural to have a Higgs particle that is “lonely” — with no other associated particles (beyond the ones we already know) of roughly similar mass.

What’s the natural/unnatural intuition here? In his “First Stab at Explaining ‘Naturalness’,” Strassler notes “the word ‘natural’ has multiple meanings.

The one that scientists are using in this context isn’t “having to do with nature” but rather “typical” or “as expected” or “generic”, as in, “naturally the baby started screaming when she bumped her head”, or “naturally it costs more to live near the city center”, or “I hadn’t worn those glasses in months, so naturally they were dusty.”  And unnatural is when the baby doesn’t scream, when the city center is cheap, and when the glasses are pristine. Usually, when something unnatural happens, there’s a good reason……

If you chose a universe at random from among our set of Standard Model-like worlds, the chance that it would look vaguely like our universe would be spectacularly smaller than the chance that you would put a vase down carelessly at the edge of the table and find it balanced, just by accident.

Why would it make sense to consider our universe selected at random, as if each one is equally probable?  What’s the relative frequency of possible people who would have done and said everything I did at every moment of my life?  Yet no one thinks this is unnatural. Nevertheless, it really, really bothers particle physicists that our class of universes is so incredibly rare, or would be, if we were in the habit of randomly drawing universes out of a bag, like blackberries (to allude to C.S. Peirce). Anyway, here’s his statistical argument:

I want you to imagine a theory much like the Standard Model (plus gravity). Let’s say it even has all the same particles and forces as the Standard Model. The only difference is that the strengths of the forces, and the strengths with which the Higgs field interacts with other particles and with itself (which in the end determines how much mass those particles have) are a little bit different, say by 1%, or 5%, or maybe even up to 50%. In fact, let’s imagine ALL such theories… all Standard Model-like theories in which the strengths with which all the fields and particles interact with each other are changed by up to 50%. What will the worlds described by these slightly different equations (shown in a nice big pile in Figure 2) be like?

Among those imaginary worlds, we will find three general classes, with the following properties.

1. In one class, the Higgs field’s average value will be zero; in other words, the Higgs field is OFF. In these worlds, the Higgs particle will have a mass as much as ten thousand trillion (10,000,000,000,000,000) times larger than it does in our world. All the other known elementary particles will be massless …..
2. In a second class, the Higgs field is FULL ON.  The Higgs field’s average value, and the Higgs particle’s mass, and the mass of all known particles, will be as much as ten thousand trillion (10,000,000,000,000,000) times larger than they are in our universe. In such a world, there will again be nothing like the atoms or the large objects we’re used to. For instance, nothing large like a star or planet can form without collapsing and forming a black hole.
3. In a third class, the Higgs field is JUST BARELY ON.  It’s average value is roughly as small as in our world — maybe a few times larger or smaller, but comparable.  The masses of the known particles, while somewhat different from what they are in our world, at least won’t be wildly different. And none of the types of particles that have mass in our own world will be massless. In some of those worlds there can even be atoms and planets and other types of structure. In others, there may be exotic things we’re not used to. But at least a few basic features of such worlds will be recognizable to us.

Now: what fraction of these worlds are in class 3? Among all the Standard Model-like theories that we’re considering, what fraction will resemble ours at least a little bit?

The answer? A ridiculously, absurdly tiny fraction of them (Figure 3). If you chose a universe at random from among our set of Standard Model-like worlds, the chance that it would look vaguely like our universe would be spectacularly smaller than the chance that you would put a vase down carelessly at the edge of the table and find it balanced, just by accident.

In other words, if the Standard Model (plus gravity) describes everything that exists in our world, then among all possible worlds, we live in an extraordinarily unusual one — one that is as unnatural as a vase balanced to within an atom’s breadth of falling off or settling back on to the table. Classes 1 and 2 of universes are natural — generic — typical; most Standard Model-like theories are in those classes. Class 3, of which our universe is an example is a part, includes the possible worlds that are extremely non-generic, non-typical, unnatural. That we should live in such an unusual universe — especially since we live, quite naturally, on a rather ordinary planet orbiting a rather ordinary star in a rather ordinary galaxy — is unexpected, shocking, bizarre.  And it is deserving, just like the balanced vase, of an explanation.  One certainly has to suspect there might be a subtle mechanism, something about the universe that we don’t yet know, that permits our universe to naturally be one that can live on the edge.

Does it make sense to envision these possible worlds as somehow equally likely? I don’t see it.  How do they know that if an entity of whatever sort found herself on one of the ‘natural’ and common worlds that she wouldn’t manage to describe her physics so that her world was highly unlikely and highly unnatural? Maybe it seems unnatural because, after all, we’re here reporting on it so there’s a kind of “selection effect”.

An imaginary note to the Higgs particle:

Dear Higgs Particle: Not long ago, physicists were happy as clams to have discovered you  –you were on the cover of so many magazines, and the focus of so many articles. How much they celebrated your discovery…at first. Sadly, it now appears you are not up to snuff, you’re not all they wanted by a long shot, and I’m reading that some physicists are quite disappointed in you! You’re kind of a freak of nature; you may have been born this way, but the physicists were expecting you to be different, to be, well bigger, or if as tiny as you are, to at least be part of a group of particles, to have friends, you know, like a social network, else to have more mass, much, much, much more … They’re saying you must be lonely, and that– little particle–is quite unnatural.

Now, I’m a complete outsider when it comes to particle physics, and my ruminations will likely be deemed naïve to the physicists, but it seems to me that the familiar intuitions about naturalness are ones that occur within an empirical universe within which we (humans) have a large number of warranted expectations. When it comes to intuitions about the entire universe, what basis can there possibly be for presuming to know how you’re “expected” to behave, were you to fulfill their intuitions about naturalness? There’s a universe, and it is what it is. Doesn’t it seem a bit absurd to apply the intuitions applicable within the empirical world to the world itself?

It’s one thing to say there must be a good explanation, “a subtle mechanism” or whatever, but I’m afraid that if particle physicists don’t find the particle they’re after, they will stick us with some horrible multiverse of bubble universes.

So, if you’ve got a support network out there, tell them to come out in the next decade or so, before they’ve decided they’ve “swept the floor clean”. The physicists are veering into philosophical territory, true, but their intuitions are the ones that will determine what kind of physics we should have, and I’m not at all happy with some of the non-standard alternatives on offer. Good luck, Mayo

Where does the multiverse hypothesis come in? In an article in Quanta by Natalie Wolchover

Physicists reason that if the universe is unnatural, with extremely unlikely fundamental constants that make life possible, then an enormous number of universes must exist for our improbable case to have been realized. Otherwise, why should we be so lucky? Unnaturalness would give a huge lift to the multiverse hypothesis, which holds that our universe is one bubble in an infinite and inaccessible foam. According to a popular but polarizing framework called string theory, the number of possible types of universes that can bubble up in a multiverse is around 10500. In a few of them, chance cancellations would produce the strange constants we observe.[my emphasis].

Does our universe regain naturalness under the multiverse hypothesis? No. It is still unnatural (if I’m understanding this right). Yet the physicists take comfort in the fact that under the multiverse hypothesis, “of the possible universes capable of supporting life — the only ones that can be observed and contemplated in the first place — ours is among the least fine-tuned.”

God forbid we should be so lucky to live in a universe that is “fine-tuned”![i]

What do you think?

[i] Strassler claims this is a purely statistical argument, not one having to do with origins of the universe.

Categories: Higgs, Statistics

## A critical look at “critical thinking”: deduction and induction

I’m cleaning away some cobwebs around my old course notes, as I return to teaching after 2 years off (since I began this blog). The change of technology alone over a mere 2 years (at least here at Super Tech U) might be enough to earn me techno-dinosaur status: I knew “Blackboard” but now it’s “Scholar” of which I know zilch. The course I’m teaching is supposed to be my way of bringing “big data” into introductory critical thinking in philosophy! No one can be free of the “sexed up term for statistics,” Nate Silver told us (here and here), and apparently all the college Deans & Provosts have followed suit. Of course I’m (mostly) joking; and it was my choice.

Anyway, the course is a nostalgic trip back to critical thinking. Stepping back from the grown-up metalogic and advanced logic I usually teach, hop-skipping over baby logic, whizzing past toddler and infant logic…. and arriving at something akin to what R.A. Fisher dubbed “the study of the embryology of knowledge” (1935, 39) (a kind of ‘fetal logic’?) which, in its very primitiveness, actually demands a highly sophisticated analysis. In short, it’s turning out to be the same course I taught nearly a decade ago! (but with a new book and new twists). But my real point is that the hodge-podge known as “critical thinking,” were it seriously considered, requires getting to grips with some very basic problems that we philosophers, with all our supposed conceptual capabilities, have left unsolved. (I am alluding to Gandenberger‘s remark). I don’t even think philosophers are working on the problem (these days). (Are they?)

I refer, of course, to our inadequate understanding of how to relate deductive and inductive inference, assuming the latter to exist (which I do)—whether or not one chooses to call its study a “logic”[i]. [That is, even if one agrees with the Popperians that the only logic is deductive logic, there may still be such a thing as a critical scrutiny of the approximate truth of premises, without which no inference is ever detached even from a deductive argument. This is also required for Popperian corroboration or well-testedness.]

We (and our textbooks) muddle along with vague attempts to see inductive arguments as more or less parallel to deductive ones, only with probabilities someplace or other. I’m not saying I have easy answers, I’m saying I need to invent a couple of new definitions in the next few days that can at least survive the course. Maybe readers can help.

______________________

I view ‘critical thinking’ as developing methods for critically evaluating the (approximate) truth or adequacy of the premises which may figure in deductive arguments. These methods would themselves include both deductive and inductive or “ampliative” arguments. Deductive validity is a matter of form alone, and so philosophers are stuck on the idea that inductive logic would have a formal rendering as well. But this simply is not the case. Typical attempts are arguments with premises that take overly simple forms:

If all (or most) J’s were observed to be K’s, then the next J will be a K, at least with a probability p.

To evaluate such a claim (essentially the rule of enumerative induction) requires context-dependent information (about the nature and selection of the K and J properties, their variability, the “next” trial, and so on). Besides, most interesting ampliative inferences are to generalizations and causal claims, not mere predictions to the next J. The problem isn’t that an algorithm couldn’t evaluate such claims, but that the evaluation requires context-dependent information as to how the ampliative leap can go wrong. Yet our most basic texts speak as if potentially warranted inductive arguments are like potentially sound deductive arguments, more or less. But it’s not easy to get the “more or less” right, for any given example, while still managing to say anything systematic and general. That is essentially the problem…..
______________________

The age-old definition of argument that we all learned from Irving Copi still serves: a group of statements, one of which (the conclusion) is claimed to follow from one or more others (the premises) which are regarded as supplying evidence for the truth of that one. This is written:

P1, P2,…Pn/ ∴ C.

In a deductively valid argument, if the premises are all true then, necessarily, the conclusion is true. To use the “⊨” (double turnstile) symbol:

P1, P2,…Pn ⊨  C.

Does this mean:

P1, P2,…Pn/ ∴ necessarily C?

No, because we do not detach “necessarily C”, which would suggest C was a necessary claim (i.e., true in all possible worlds). “Necessarily” qualifies “⊨”, the very relationship between premises and conclusion:

It’s logically impossible to have all true premises and a false conclusion, on pain of logical contradiction.

We should see it (i.e., deductive validity) as qualifying the process of “inferring,” as opposed to the “inference” that is detached–the statement  placed to the right of “⊨”. A valid argument is a procedure of inferring that is 100% reliable, in the sense that if the premises are all true, then 100% of the time the conclusion is true.

Deductively Valid Argument: Three equivalent expressions:

(D-i) If the premises are all true, then necessarily, the conclusion is true.
(I.e., if the conclusion is false, then (necessarily) one of premises is false.)

(D-ii) It’s (logically) impossible for the premises to be true and the conclusion false.
(I.e., to have the conclusion false with the premises true leads to a logical contradiction, A & ~A.)

(D-iii) The argument maps true premises into a true conclusion with 100% reliability.
(I.e., if the premises are all true, then 100% of the time the conclusion is true).

(Deductively) Sound argument:  deductively valid + premises are true/approximately true.

All of this is baby logic; but with so-called inductive arguments, terms are not so clear-cut. (“Embryonic logic” demands, at times, more sophistication than grown-up logic.) But maybe the above points can help…

________

With an inductive argument, the conclusion goes beyond the premises. So it’s logically possible for all the premises to be true and the conclusion false.

Notice that if one had characterized deductive validity as

(a)  P1, P2,…Pn ⊨ necessarily C,

then it would be an easy slide to seeing inductively inferring as:

(b)  P1, P2,…Pnprobably C.

But (b) is wrongheaded, I say, for the same reason (a) is. Nevertheless, (b) (or something similar) is found in many texts. We (philosophers) should stop foisting ampliative inference into the deductive mould. So, here I go trying out some decent parallels:

In all of the following, “true” will mean “true or approximately true”.

An inductive argument (to inference C) is strong or potentially severe only if any of the following (equivalent claims) hold [iii]

(I-i) If the conclusion is false, then very probably at least one of the premises is false.

(I-ii) It’s improbable that the premises are all true while the conclusion false.

(I-iii) The argument leads from true premises to a true conclusion with high reliability (i.e., if the premises are all true then (1-a)% of the time, the conclusion is true).

To get the probabilities to work, the premises and conclusion must refer to “generic” claims of the type, but this is the case for deductive arguments as well (else their truth values wouldn’t be altering). However, the basis for the [I-i through I-iii] requirement, in any of its forms, will not be formal; it will demand a contingent or empirical ground. Even after these are grounded, the approximate truth of the premises will be required. Otherwise, it’s only potentially severe. (This is parallel to viewing a valid deductive argument as potentially sound.)

We get the following additional parallel:

Deductively unsound argument:

Denial of D-(i), (D-ii), or (D-iii): it’s logically possible for all its premises to be true and the conclusion false.
OR
One or more of its premises are false.

Inductively weak inference: insevere grounds for C

Denial of I-(i), (ii), or (iii): Premises would be fairly probable even if C is false.
OR
Its premises are false (not true to a sufficient approximation)

There’s still some “winking” going on, and I’m sure I’ll have to tweak this. What do you think?

Fully aware of how the fuzziness surrounding inductive inference has non-trivially (adversely) influenced the entire research program in philosophy of induction, I’ll want to rethink some elements from scratch, this time around….

______________

So I’m back in my Thebian palace high atop the mountains in Blacksburg, Virginia. The move from looking out at the Empire state building to staring at endless mountain ranges is… calming.[iv]

References:

[i] I do, following Peirce, but it’s an informal not a formal logic (using the terms strictly).

[ii]The double turnstile denotes the “semantic consequence” relationship; the single turnstyle, the syntatic (deducibility) relationship. But some students are not so familiar with “turnstiles”.

[iii]I intend these to function equivalently.

[iv] Someone asked me “what’s the biggest difference I find in coming to the rural mountains from living in NYC?” I think the biggest contrast is the amount of space. Not just that I live in a large palace, there’s the tremendous width of grocery aisles: 3 carts wide rather than 1.5 carts wide. I hate banging up against carts in NYC, but this feels like a major highway!

Copi, I.  (1956). Introduction to Logic. New York: Macmillan.

Fisher, R.A.  (1935). The Design of Experiments.  Edinburgh: Oliver & Boyd.

Categories: critical thinking, Severity, Statistics

## PhilStock: Flash Freeze

A mysterious outage on the Nasdaq stock market: Trading halted for over an hour now. I don’t know if it’s a computer glitch or hacking, but I know the complex, robot-run markets are frequently out of our control. Stay tuned…

Categories: PhilStock

## Blog contents: July, 2013

(7/3) Phil/Stat/Law: 50 Shades of gray between error and fraud
(7/6) Bad news bears: ‘Bayesian bear’ rejoinder–reblog mashup
(7/10) PhilStatLaw: Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence (3d ed) on Statistical Significance (Schachtman)
(7/11) Is Particle Physics Bad Science? (memory lane)
(7/13) Professor of Philosophy Resigns over Sexual Misconduct (rejected post)
(7/14) Stephen Senn: Indefinite irrelevance
(7/17) Phil/Stat/Law: What Bayesian prior should a jury have? (Schachtman)
(7/19) Msc Kvetch: A question on the Martin-Zimmerman case we do not hear
(7/20) Guest Post: Larry Laudan. Why Presuming Innocence is Not a Bayesian Prior
(7/23) Background Knowledge: Not to Quantify, But To Avoid Being Misled By,Subjective Beliefs
(7/26) New Version: On the Birnbaum argument for the SLP: Slides for JSM talk

Categories: Error Statistics

## Gandenberger: How to Do Philosophy That Matters (guest post)

Greg Gandenberger
Philosopher of Science
University of Pittsburgh
gandenberger.org

Genuine philosophical problems are always rooted in urgent problems outside philosophy,
and they die if these roots decay
Karl Popper (1963, 72)

My concern in this post is how we philosophers can use our skills to do work that matters to people both inside and outside of philosophy.

Philosophers are highly skilled at conceptual analysis, in which one takes an interesting but unclear concept and attempts to state precisely when it applies and when it doesn’t.

What is the point of this activity? In many cases, this question has no satisfactory answer. Conceptual analysis becomes an end in itself, and philosophical debates become fruitless arguments about words. The pleasure we philosophers take in such arguments hardly warrants scarce government and university resources. It does provide good training in critical thinking, but so do many other activities that are also immediately useful, such as doing science and programming computers.

Conceptual analysis does not have to be pointless. It is often prompted by a real-world problem. In Plato’s Euthyphro, for instance, the character Euthyphro thought that piety required him to prosecute his father for murder. His family thought on the contrary that for a son to prosecute his own father was the height of impiety. In this situation, the question “what is piety?” took on great urgency. It also had great urgency for Socrates, who was awaiting trial for corrupting the youth of Athens.

In general, conceptual analysis often begins as a response to some question about how we ought to regulate our beliefs or actions. It can be a fruitful activity as long as the questions that prompted it are kept in view. It tends to degenerate into merely verbal disputes when it becomes an end in itself.

The kind of goal-oriented view of conceptual analysis I aim to articulate and promote is not teleosemantics: it is a view about how philosophy should be done rather than a theory of meaning. It is consistent with Carnap’s notion of explication (one of the desiderata of which is fruitfulness) (Carnap 1963, 5), but in practice Carnapian explication seems to devolve into idle word games just as easily as conceptual analysis. Our overriding goal should not be fidelity to intuitions, precision, or systematicity, but usefulness.

How I Became Suspicious of Conceptual Analysis

When I began working on proofs of the Likelihood Principle, I assumed that following my intuitions about the concept of “evidential equivalence” would lead to insights about how science should be done. Birnbaum’s proof showed me that my intuitions entail the Likelihood Principle, which frequentist methods violate. Voila! Voila! Scientists shouldn’t use frequentist methods. All that remained to be done was to fortify Birnbaum’s proof, as I do in “A New Proof of the Likelihood Principle” by defending it against objections and buttressing it with an alternative proof. [Editor: For a number of related materials on this blog see Mayo’s JSM presentation, and note [i].]

After working on this topic for some time, I realized that I was making simplistic assumptions about the relationship between conceptual intuitions and methodological norms. At most, a proof of the Likelihood Principle can show you that frequentist methods run contrary to your intuitions about evidential equivalence. Even if those intuitions are true, it does not follow immediately that scientists should not use frequentist methods. The ultimate aim of science, presumably, is not to respect evidential equivalence but (roughly) to learn about the world and make it better. The demand that scientists use methods that respect evidential equivalence is warranted only insofar as it is conducive to achieving those ends. Birnbaum’s proof says nothing about that issue.

• In general, a conceptual analysis–even of a normatively freighted term like “evidence”–is never enough by itself to justify a normative claim. The questions that ultimately matter are not about “what we mean” when we use particular words and phrases, but rather about what our aims are and how we can best achieve them.

How to Do Conceptual Analysis Teleologically

This is not to say that my work on the Likelihood Principle or conceptual analysis in general is without value. But it is nothing more than a kind of careful lexicography. This kind of work is potentially useful for clarifying normative claims with the aim of assessing and possibly implementing them. To do work that matters, philosophers engaged in conceptual analysis need to take enough interest in the assessment and implementation stages to do their conceptual analysis with the relevant normative claims in mind.

So what does this kind of teleological (goal-oriented) conceptual analysis look like?

It can involve personally following through on the process of assessing and implementing the relevant norms. For example, philosophers at Carnegie Mellon University working on causation have not only provided a kind of analysis of the concept of causation but also developed algorithms for causal discovery, proved theorems about those algorithms, and applied those algorithms to contemporary scientific problems (see e.g. Spirtes et al. 2000).

I have great respect for this work. But doing conceptual analysis does not have to mean going so far outside the traditional bounds of philosophy. A perfect example is James Woodward’s related work on causal explanation, which he describes as follows (2003, 7-8, original emphasis):

My project…makes recommendations about what one ought to mean by various causal and explanatory claims, rather than just attempting to describe how we use those claims. It recognizes that causal and explanatory claims sometimes are confused, unclear, and ambiguous and suggests how those limitations might be addressed…. we introduce concepts…and characterize them in certain ways…because we want to do things with them…. Concepts can be well or badly designed for such purposes, and we can evaluate them accordingly.

Woodward keeps his eye on what the notion of causation is for, namely distinguishing between relationships that do and relationships that do not remain invariant under interventions. This distinction is enormously important because only relationships that remain invariant under interventions provide “handles” we can use to change the world.

Here are some lessons about teleological conceptual analysis that we can take from Woodward’s work. (I’m sure this list could be expanded.)

1. Teleological conceptual analysis puts us in charge. In his wonderful presidential address at the 2012 meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association, Woodward ended a litany of metaphysical arguments against regarding mental events as causes by asking “Who’s in charge here?” There is no ideal form of Causation to which we must answer. We are free to decide to use “causation” and related words in the ways that best serve our interests.
2. Teleological conceptual analysis can be revisionary. If ordinary usage is not optimal, we can change it.
3. The product of a teleological conceptual analysis need not be unique. Some philosophers reject Woodward’s account because they regard causation as a process rather than as a relationship among variables. But why do we need to choose? There could just be two different notions of causation. Woodward’s account captures one notion that is very important in science and everyday life. If it captures all of the causal notions that are important, then so much the better. But this kind of comprehensiveness is not essential.
4. Teleological conceptual analysis can be non-reductive. Woodward characterizes causal relations as (roughly) correlation relations that are invariant under certain kinds of interventions. But the notion of an intervention is itself causal. Woodward’s account is not circular because it characterizes what it means for a causal relationship to hold between two variables in terms of a different causal processes involving different sets of variables. But it is non-reductive in the sense that does not allow us to replace causal claims with equivalent non-causal claims (as, e.g., counterfactual, regularity, probabilistic, and process theories purport to do). This fact is a problem if one’s primary concern is to reduce one’s ultimate metaphysical commitments, but it is not necessarily a problem if one’s primary concern is to improve our ability to assess and use causal claims.

Conclusion

Philosophers rarely succeed in capturing all of our intuitions about an important informal concept. Even if they did succeed, they would have more work to do in justifying any norms that invoke that concept. Conceptual analysis can be a first step toward doing philosophy that matters, but it needs to be undertaken with the relevant normative claims in mind.

Question: What are your best examples of philosophy that matters? What can we learn from them?

Citations

• Birnbaum, Allan. “On the Foundations of Statistical Inference.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 57.298 (1962): 269-306.
• Carnap, Rudolf. Logical Foundations of Probability. U of Chicago Press, 1963.
• Gandenberger, Greg. “A New Proof of the Likelihood Principle.” The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science (forthcoming).
• Plato. Euthyphrohttp://classics.mit.edu/Plato/euthyfro.html.
• Popper, Karl. Conjectures and Refutations. London: Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1963.
• Spirtes, Peter, Clark Glymour, and Richard Scheines. Causation, Prediction, and Search. Vol. 81. The MIT Press, 2000.
• Woodward, James. Making Things Happen: A Theory of Causal Explanation. Oxford University Press, 2003.

[i] Earlier posts are here and here. Some U-Phils are here, here, and here. For some amusing notes (e.g., Don’t Birnbaumize that experiment my friend, and Midnight with Birnbaum).

Some related papers:

• Cox D. R. and Mayo. D. G. (2010). “Objectivity and Conditionality in Frequentist Inference” in Error and Inference: Recent Exchanges on Experimental Reasoning, Reliability and the Objectivity and Rationality of Science (D Mayo and A. Spanos eds.), Cambridge: Cambridge University Press: 276-304.

## A. Spanos: Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics

With permission from my colleague Aris Spanos, I reblog his (8/18/12): “Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics“. It illuminates a different area of E.S.P’s work than my posts here and here.

Egon Pearson (11 August 1895 – 12 June 1980), is widely known today for his contribution in recasting of Fisher’s significance testing into the Neyman-Pearson (1933) theory of hypothesis testing. Occasionally, he is also credited with contributions in promoting statistical methods in industry and in the history of modern statistics; see Bartlett (1981). What is rarely mentioned is Egon’s early pioneering work on:

(i) specification: the need to state explicitly the inductive premises of one’s inferences,

(ii) robustness: evaluating the ‘sensitivity’ of inferential procedures to departures from the Normality assumption, as well as

(iii) Mis-Specification (M-S) testing: probing for potential departures from the Normality  assumption.

Arguably, modern frequentist inference began with the development of various finite sample inference procedures, initially by William Gosset (1908) [of the Student’s t fame] and then Fisher (1915, 1921, 1922a-b). These inference procedures revolved around a particular statistical model, known today as the simple Normal model:

Xk ∽ NIID(μ,σ²), k=1,2,…,n,…             (1)

where ‘NIID(μ,σ²)’ stands for ‘Normal, Independent and Identically Distributed with mean μ and variance σ²’. These procedures include the ‘optimal’ estimators of μ and σ², Xbar and s², and the pivotal quantities:

(a) τ(X) =[√n(Xbar- μ)/s] ∽ St(n-1),  (2)

(b) v(X) =[(n-1)s²/σ²] ∽ χ²(n-1),        (3)

where St(n-1) and χ²(n-1) denote the Student’s t and chi-square distributions with (n-1) degrees of freedom.

The question of ‘how these inferential results might be affected when the Normality assumption is false’ was originally raised by Gosset in a letter to Fisher in 1923:

“What I should like you to do is to find a solution for some other population than a normal one.”  (Lehmann, 1999)

He went on to say that he tried the rectangular (uniform) distribution but made no progress, and he was seeking Fisher’s help in tackling this ‘robustness/sensitivity’ problem. In his reply that was unfortunately lost, Fisher must have derived the sampling distribution of τ(X), assuming some skewed distribution (possibly log-Normal). We know this from Gosset’s reply:

“I like the result for z [τ(X)] in the case of that horrible curve you are so fond of. I take it that in skew curves the distribution of z is skew in the opposite direction.”  (Lehmann, 1999)

After this exchange Fisher was not particularly receptive to Gosset’s requests to address the problem of working out the implications of non-Normality for the Normal-based inference procedures; t, chi-square and F tests.

In contrast, Egon Pearson shared Gosset’s concerns about the robustness of Normal-based inference results (a)-(b) to non-Normality, and made an attempt to address the problem in a series of papers in the late 1920s and early 1930s. This line of research for Pearson began with a review of Fisher’s 2nd edition of the 1925 book, published in Nature, and dated June 8th, 1929.  Pearson, after praising the book for its path breaking contributions, dared raise a mild criticism relating to (i)-(ii) above:

“There is one criticism, however, which must be made from the statistical point of view. A large number of tests are developed upon the assumption that the population sampled is of ‘normal’ form. That this is the case may be gathered from a very careful reading of the text, but the point is not sufficiently emphasised. It does not appear reasonable to lay stress on the ‘exactness’ of tests, when no means whatever are given of appreciating how rapidly they become inexact as the population samples diverge from normality.” (Pearson, 1929a)

Egon Pearson recognized the importance of stating explicitly the inductive premises upon which the inference results are based, and pressed ahead with exploring the robustness issue using several non-Normal distributions within the Pearson family. His probing was based primarily on simulation, relying on tables of pseudo-random numbers; see Pearson and Adyanthaya (1928, 1929), Pearson (1929b, 1931). His broad conclusions were that the t-test:

τ0(X)=|[√n(X-bar- μ0)/s]|, C1:={x: τ0(x) > cα},    (4)

for testing the hypotheses:

H0: μ = μ0 vs. H1: μ ≠ μ0,                                             (5)

is relatively robust to certain departures from Normality, especially when the underlying distribution is symmetric, but the ANOVA test is rather sensitive to such departures! He continued this line of research into his 80s; see Pearson and Please (1975).

Perhaps more importantly, Pearson (1930) proposed a test for the Normality assumption based on the skewness and kurtosis coefficients: a Mis-Specification (M-S) test. Ironically, Fisher (1929) provided the sampling distributions of the sample skewness and kurtosis statistics upon which Pearson’s test was based. Pearson continued sharpening his original M-S test for Normality, and his efforts culminated with the D’Agostino and Pearson (1973) test that is widely used today; see also Pearson et al. (1977). The crucial importance of testing Normality stems from the fact that it renders the ‘robustness/sensitivity’ problem manageable. The test results can be used to narrow down the possible departures one needs to worry about. They can also be used to suggest ways to respecify the original model.

After Pearson’s early publications on the ‘robustness/sensitivity’ problem Gosset realized that simulation alone was not effective enough to address the question of robustness, and called upon Fisher, who initially rejected Gosset’s call by saying ‘it was none of his business’, to derive analytically the implications of non-Normality using different distributions:

“How much does it [non-Normality] matter? And in fact that is your business: none of the rest of us have the slightest chance of solving the problem: we can play about with samples [i.e. perform simulation studies], I am not belittling E. S. Pearson’s work, but it is up to you to get us a proper solution.” (Lehmann, 1999).

In this passage one can discern the high esteem with which Gosset held Fisher for his technical ability. Fisher’s reply was rather blunt:

“I do not think what you are doing with nonnormal distributions is at all my business, and I doubt if it is the right approach. … Where I differ from you, I suppose, is in regarding normality as only a part of the difficulty of getting data; viewed in this collection of difficulties I think you will see that it is one of the least important.”

It’s clear from this that Fisher understood the problem of how to handle departures from Normality more broadly than his contemporaries. His answer alludes to two issues that were not well understood at the time:

(a) departures from the other two probabilistic assumptions (IID) have much more serious consequences for Normal-based inference than Normality, and

(b) deriving the consequences of particular forms of non-Normality on the reliability of Normal-based inference, and proclaiming a procedure enjoys a certain level of ‘generic’ robustness, does not provide a complete answer to the problem of dealing with departures from the inductive premises.

In relation to (a) it is important to note that the role of ‘randomness’, as it relates to the IID assumptions, was not well understood until the 1940s, when the notion of non-IID was framed in terms of explicit forms of heterogeneity and dependence pertaining to stochastic processes. Hence, the problem of assessing departures from IID was largely ignored at the time, focusing almost exclusively on departures from Normality. Indeed, the early literature on nonparametric inference retained the IID assumptions and focused on inference procedures that replace the Normality assumption with indirect distributional assumptions pertaining to the ‘true’ but unknown f(x), like the existence of certain moments, its symmetry, smoothness, continuity and/or differentiability, unimodality, etc. ; see Lehmann (1975). It is interesting to note that Egon Pearson did not consider the question of testing the IID assumptions until his 1963 paper.

In relation to (b), when one poses the question ‘how robust to non-Normality is the reliability of inference based on a t-test?’ one ignores the fact that the t-test might no longer be the ‘optimal’ test under a non-Normal distribution. This is because the sampling distribution of the test statistic and the associated type I and II error probabilities depend crucially on the validity of the statistical model assumptions. When any of these assumptions are invalid, the relevant error probabilities are no longer the ones derived under the original model assumptions, and the optimality of the original test is called into question. For instance, assuming that the ‘true’ distribution is uniform (Gosset’s rectangular):

Xk ∽ U(a-μ,a+μ),   k=1,2,…,n,…        (6)

where f(x;a,μ)=(1/(2μ)), (a-μ) ≤ x ≤ (a+μ), μ > 0,

how does one assess the robustness of the t-test? One might invoke its generic robustness to symmetric non-Normal distributions and proceed as if the t-test is ‘fine’ for testing the hypotheses (5). A more well-grounded answer will be to assess the discrepancy between the nominal (assumed) error probabilities of the t-test based on (1) and the actual ones based on (6). If the latter approximate the former ‘closely enough’, one can justify the generic robustness. These answers, however, raise the broader question of what are the relevant error probabilities? After all, the optimal test for the hypotheses (5) in the context of (6), is no longer the t-test, but the test defined by:

w(X)=|{(n-1)([X[1] +X[n]]-μ0)}/{[X[1]-X[n]]}|∽F(2,2(n-1)),   (7)

with a rejection region C1:={x: w(x) > cα},  where (X[1], X[n]) denote the smallest and the largest element in the ordered sample (X[1], X[2],…, X[n]), and F(2,2(n-1)) the F distribution with 2 and 2(n-1) degrees of freedom; see Neyman and Pearson (1928). One can argue that the relevant comparison error probabilities are no longer the ones associated with the t-test ‘corrected’ to account for the assumed departure, but those associated with the test in (7). For instance, let the t-test have nominal and actual significance level, .05 and .045, and power at μ10+1, of .4 and .37, respectively. The conventional wisdom will call the t-test robust, but is it reliable (effective) when compared with the test in (7) whose significance level and power (at μ1) are say, .03 and .9, respectively?

A strong case can be made that a more complete approach to the statistical misspecification problem is:

(i) to probe thoroughly for any departures from all the model assumptions using trenchant M-S tests, and if any departures are detected,

(ii) proceed to respecify the statistical model by choosing a more appropriate model with a view to account for the statistical information that the original model did not.

Admittedly, this is a more demanding way to deal with departures from the underlying assumptions, but it addresses the concerns of Gosset, Egon Pearson, Neyman and Fisher much more effectively than the invocation of vague robustness claims; see Spanos (2010).

References

Bartlett, M. S. (1981) “Egon Sharpe Pearson, 11 August 1895-12 June 1980,” Biographical Memoirs of Fellows of the Royal Society, 27: 425-443.

D’Agostino, R. and E. S. Pearson (1973) “Tests for Departure from Normality. Empirical Results for the Distributions of b₂ and √(b₁),” Biometrika, 60: 613-622.

Fisher, R. A. (1915) “Frequency distribution of the values of the correlation coefficient in samples from an indefinitely large population,” Biometrika, 10: 507-521.

Fisher, R. A. (1921) “On the “probable error” of a coefficient of correlation deduced from a small sample,” Metron, 1: 3-32.

Fisher, R. A. (1922a) “On the mathematical foundations of theoretical statistics,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 222, 309-368.

Fisher, R. A. (1922b) “The goodness of fit of regression formulae, and the distribution of regression coefficients,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 85: 597-612.

Fisher, R. A. (1925) Statistical Methods for Research Workers, Oliver and Boyd, Edinburgh.

Fisher, R. A. (1929), “Moments and Product Moments of Sampling Distributions,” Proceedings of the London Mathematical Society, Series 2, 30: 199-238.

Neyman, J. and E. S. Pearson (1928) “On the use and interpretation of certain test criteria for purposes of statistical inference: Part I,” Biometrika, 20A: 175-240.

Neyman, J. and E. S. Pearson (1933) “On the problem of the most efficient tests of statistical hypotheses”, Philosophical Transanctions of the Royal Society, A, 231: 289-337.

Lehmann, E. L. (1975) Nonparametrics: statistical methods based on ranks, Holden-Day, San Francisco.

Lehmann, E. L. (1999) “‘Student’ and Small-Sample Theory,” Statistical Science, 14: 418-426.

Pearson, E. S. (1929a) “Review of ‘Statistical Methods for Research Workers,’ 1928, by Dr. R. A. Fisher”, Nature, June 8th, pp. 866-7.

Pearson, E. S. (1929b) “Some notes on sampling tests with two variables,” Biometrika, 21: 337-60.

Pearson, E. S. (1930) “A further development of tests for normality,” Biometrika, 22: 239-49.

Pearson, E. S. (1931) “The analysis of variance in cases of non-normal variation,” Biometrika, 23: 114-33.

Pearson, E. S. (1963) “Comparison of tests for randomness of points on a line,” Biometrika, 50: 315-25.

Pearson, E. S. and N. K. Adyanthaya (1928) “The distribution of frequency constants in small samples from symmetrical populations,” Biometrika, 20: 356-60.

Pearson, E. S. and N. K. Adyanthaya (1929) “The distribution of frequency constants in small samples from non-normal symmetrical and skew populations,” Biometrika, 21: 259-86.

Pearson, E. S. and N. W. Please (1975) “Relations between the shape of the population distribution and the robustness of four simple test statistics,” Biometrika, 62: 223-241.

Pearson, E. S., R. B. D’Agostino and K. O. Bowman (1977) “Tests for departure from normality: comparisons of powers,” Biometrika, 64: 231-246.

Spanos, A. (2010) “Akaike-type Criteria and the Reliability of Inference: Model Selection vs. Statistical Model Specification,” Journal of Econometrics, 158: 204-220.

Student (1908), “The Probable Error of the Mean,” Biometrika, 6: 1-25.

Categories: phil/history of stat, Statistics, Testing Assumptions |

## Blogging E.S. Pearson’s Statistical Philosophy

E.S. Pearson

For a bit more on the statistical philosophy of Egon Sharpe (E.S.) Pearson (11 Aug, 1895-12 June, 1980), I reblog a post from last year. It gets to the question I now call: performance or probativeness?

Are frequentist methods mainly useful to supply procedures which will not err too frequently in some long run? (performance) Or is it the other way round: that the control of long run error properties are of crucial importance for probing causes of the data at hand? (probativeness). I say no to the former and yes to the latter. This I think was also the view of Egon Pearson.

(i) Cases of Type A and Type B

“How far then, can one go in giving precision to a philosophy of statistical inference?” (Pearson 1947, 172)

Pearson considers the rationale that might be given to N-P tests in two types of cases, A and B:

“(A) At one extreme we have the case where repeated decisions must be made on results obtained from some routine procedure…

(B) At the other is the situation where statistical tools are applied to an isolated investigation of considerable importance…?” (ibid., 170)

In cases of type A, long-run results are clearly of interest, while in cases of type B, repetition is impossible and may be irrelevant:

“In other and, no doubt, more numerous cases there is no repetition of the same type of trial or experiment, but all the same we can and many of us do use the same test rules to guide our decision, following the analysis of an isolated set of numerical data. Why do we do this? What are the springs of decision? Is it because the formulation of the case in terms of hypothetical repetition helps to that clarity of view needed for sound judgment?

Or is it because we are content that the application of a rule, now in this investigation, now in that, should result in a long-run frequency of errors in judgment which we control at a low figure?” (Ibid., 173)

Although Pearson leaves this tantalizing question unanswered, claiming, “On this I should not care to dogmatize”, in studying how Pearson treats cases of type B, it is evident that in his view, “the formulation of the case in terms of hypothetical repetition helps to that clarity of view needed for sound judgment” in learning about the particular case at hand.

“Whereas when tackling problem A it is easy to convince the practical man of the value of a probability construct related to frequency of occurrence, in problem B the argument that ‘if we were to repeatedly do so and so, such and such result would follow in the long run’ is at once met by the commonsense answer that we never should carry out a precisely similar trial again.

Nevertheless, it is clear that the scientist with a knowledge of statistical method behind him can make his contribution to a round-table discussion…” (Ibid., 171).

Pearson gives the following example of a case of type B (from his wartime work), where he claims no repetition is intended:

“Example of type B. Two types of heavy armour-piercing naval shell of the same caliber are under consideration; they may be of different design or made by different firms…. Twelve shells of one kind and eight of the other have been fired; two of the former and five of the latter failed to perforate the plate….”(Pearson 1947, 171)

“Starting from the basis that, individual shells will never be identical in armour-piercing qualities, however good the control of production, he has to consider how much of the difference between (i) two failures out of twelve and (ii) five failures out of eight is likely to be due to this inevitable variability. ..”(Ibid.,)

As a noteworthy aside, Pearson shows that treating the observed difference (between the two proportions) in one way yields an observed significance level of 0.052; treating it differently (along Barnard’s lines), he gets 0.025 as the (upper) significance level. But in scientific cases, Pearson insists, the difference in error probabilities makes no real difference to substantive judgments in interpreting the results. Only in an unthinking, automatic, routine use of tests would it matter:

“Were the action taken to be decided automatically by the side of the 5% level on which the observation point fell, it is clear that the method of analysis used would here be of vital importance. But no responsible statistician, faced with an investigation of this character, would follow an automatic probability rule.” (ibid., 192)

The two analyses correspond to the tests effectively asking different questions, and if we recognize this, says Pearson, different meanings may be appropriately attached.

(ii) Three Steps in the Original construction of Tests

After setting up the test (or null) hypothesis, and the alternative hypotheses against which “we wish the test to have maximum discriminating power” (Pearson 1947, 173), Pearson defines three steps in specifying tests:

“Step 1. We must specify the experimental probability set, the set of results which could follow on repeated application of the random process used in the collection of the data…

Step 2. We then divide this set [of possible results] by a system of ordered boundaries…such that as we pass across one boundary and proceed to the next, we come to a class of results which makes us more and more inclined on the Information  available, to reject the hypothesis tested in favour of alternatives which differ from it by increasing amounts” (Pearson 1966a, 173).

“Step 3. We then, if possible[i], associate with each contour level the chance that, if [the null] is true, a result will occur in random sampling lying beyond that level” (ibid.).

Pearson warns that:

“Although the mathematical procedure may put Step 3 before 2, we cannot put this into operation before we have decided, under Step 2, on the guiding principle to be used in choosing the contour system. That is why I have numbered the steps in this order.” (Ibid. 173).

Strict behavioristic formulations jump from step 1 to step 3, after which one may calculate how the test has in effect accomplished step 2.  However, the resulting test, while having adequate error probabilities, may have an inadequate distance measure and may even be irrelevant to the hypothesis of interest. This is one reason critics can construct howlers that appear to be licensed by N-P methods, and which make their way from time to time into this blog.

So step 3 remains crucial, even for cases of type [B]. There are two reasons: pre-data planning—that’s familiar enough—but secondly, for post-data scrutiny. Post data, step 3 enables determining the capability of the test to have detected various discrepancies, departures, and errors, on which a critical scrutiny of the inferences are based. More specifically, the error probabilities are used to determine how well/poorly corroborated, or how severely tested, various claims are, post-data.

If we can readily bring about statistically significantly higher rates of success with the first type of armour-piercing naval shell than with the second (in the above example), we have evidence the first is superior. Or, as Pearson modestly puts it: the results “raise considerable doubts as to whether the performance of the [second] type of shell was as good as that of the [first]….” (Ibid., 192)[ii]

Still, while error rates of procedures may be used to determine how severely claims have/have not passed they do not automatically do so—hence, again, opening the door to potential howlers that neither Egon nor Jerzy for that matter would have countenanced.

(iii) Neyman Was the More Behavioristic of the Two

Pearson was (rightly) considered to have rejected the more behaviorist leanings of Neyman.

Here’s a snippet from an unpublished letter he wrote to Birnbaum (1974) about the idea that the N-P theory admits of two interpretations: behavioral and evidential:

“I think you will pick up here and there in my own papers signs of evidentiality, and you can say now that we or I should have stated clearly the difference between the behavioral and evidential interpretations. Certainly we have suffered since in the way the people have concentrated (to an absurd extent often) on behavioral interpretations”.

In Pearson’s (1955) response to Fisher (blogged last time):

“To dispel the picture of the Russian technological bogey, I might recall how certain early ideas came into my head as I sat on a gate overlooking an experimental blackcurrant plot….!” (Pearson 1955, 204)

“To the best of my ability I was searching for a way of expressing in mathematical terms what appeared to me to be the requirements of the scientist in applying statistical tests to his data. After contact was made with Neyman in 1926, the development of a joint mathematical theory proceeded much more surely; it was not till after the main lines of this theory had taken shape with its necessary formalization in terms of critical regions, the class of admissible hypotheses, the two sources of error, the power function, etc., that the fact that there was a remarkable parallelism of ideas in the field of acceptance sampling became apparent. Abraham Wald’s contributions to decision theory of ten to fifteen years later were perhaps strongly influenced by acceptance sampling problems, but that is another story.“ (ibid., 204-5).

“It may be readily agreed that in the first Neyman and Pearson paper of 1928, more space might have been given to discussing how the scientific worker’s attitude of mind could be related to the formal structure of the mathematical probability theory….Nevertheless it should be clear from the first paragraph of this paper that we were not speaking of the final acceptance or rejection of a scientific hypothesis on the basis of statistical analysis…. Indeed, from the start we shared Professor Fisher’s view that in scientific enquiry, a statistical test is ‘a means of learning”… (Ibid., 206)

“Professor Fisher’s final criticism concerns the use of the term ‘inductive behavior’; this is Professor Neyman’s field rather than mine.” (Ibid., 207)

__________________________

Aside: It is interesting, given these non-behavioristic leanings that Pearson had earlier worked in acceptance sampling and quality control (from which he claimed to have obtained the term “power”).  From the Cox-Mayo “conversation” (2011, 110):

COX: It is relevant that Egon Pearson had a very strong interest in industrial design and quality control.

MAYO: Yes, that’s surprising, given his evidential leanings and his apparent dis-taste for Neyman’s behavioristic stance. I only discovered that around 10 years ago; he wrote a small book.[iii]

COX: He also wrote a very big book, but all copies were burned in one of the first air raids on London.

Some might find it surprising to learn that it is from this early acceptance sampling work that Pearson obtained the notion of “power”, but I don’t have the quote handy where he said this……

References:

Cox, D. and Mayo, D. G. (2011), “Statistical Scientist Meets a Philosopher of Science: A Conversation,” Rationality, Markets and Morals: Studies at the Intersection of Philosophy and Economics, 2: 103-114.

Pearson, E. S. (1935), The Application of Statistical Methods to Industrial Standardization and Quality Control, London: British Standards Institution.

Pearson, E. S. (1947), “The choice of Statistical Tests illustrated on the Interpretation of Data Classed in a 2×2 Table,” Biometrika 34(1/2): 139-167.

Pearson, E. S. (1955), “Statistical Concepts and Their Relationship to RealityJournal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, (Methodological), 17(2): 204-207.

Neyman, J. and Pearson, E. S. (1928), “On the Use and Interpretation of Certain Test Criteria for Purposes of Statistical Inference, Part I.Biometrika 20(A): 175-240.

[i] In some cases only an upper limit to this error probability may be found.

[ii] Pearson inadvertently switches from number of failures to number of successes in the conclusion of this paper.

[iii] I thank Aris Spanos for locating this work of Pearson’s from 1935

Categories: phil/history of stat, Statistics | Tags:

## E.S. Pearson: “Ideas came into my head as I sat on a gate overlooking an experimental blackcurrant plot”

E.S.Pearson on a Gate,             Mayo sketch

Today is Egon Pearson’s birthday (11 Aug., 1895-12 June, 1980); and here you see my scruffy sketch of him, at the start of my book, “Error and the Growth of Experimental Knowledge” (EGEK 1996). As Erich Lehmann put it in his EGEK review, Pearson is “the hero of Mayo’s story” because I found in his work, if only in brief discussions, hints, and examples, the key elements for an “inferential” or “evidential” interpretation of Neyman-Pearson theory of statistics.  “Pearson and Pearson” statistics (both Egon, not Karl) would have looked very different from Neyman and Pearson statistics, I suspect. One of the few sources of E.S. Pearson’s statistical philosophy is his (1955) “Statistical Concepts in Their Relation to Reality”. It begins like this:

Controversies in the field of mathematical statistics seem largely to have arisen because statisticians have been unable to agree upon how theory is to provide, in terms of probability statements, the numerical measures most helpful to those who have to draw conclusions from observational data.  We are concerned here with the ways in which mathematical theory may be put, as it were, into gear with the common processes of rational thought, and there seems no reason to suppose that there is one best way in which this can be done.  If, therefore, Sir Ronald Fisher recapitulates and enlarges on his views upon statistical methods and scientific induction we can all only be grateful, but when he takes this opportunity to criticize the work of others through misapprehension of their views as he has done in his recent contribution to this Journal (Fisher 1955 “Scientific Methods and Scientific Induction” ), it is impossible to leave him altogether unanswered.

In the first place it seems unfortunate that much of Fisher’s criticism of Neyman and Pearson’s approach to the testing of statistical hypotheses should be built upon a “penetrating observation” ascribed to Professor G.A. Barnard, the assumption involved in which happens to be historically incorrect.  There was no question of a difference in point of view having “originated” when Neyman “reinterpreted” Fisher’s early work on tests of significance “in terms of that technological and commercial apparatus which is known as an acceptance procedure”.  There was no sudden descent upon British soil of Russian ideas regarding the function of science in relation to technology and to five-year plans.  It was really much simpler–or worse.  The original heresy, as we shall see, was a Pearson one!…
Indeed, to dispel the picture of the Russian technological bogey, I might recall how certain early ideas came into my head as I sat on a gate overlooking an experimental blackcurrant plot…!

To continue reading, “Statistical Concepts in Their Relation to Reality” click HERE.

See also Aris Spanos: “Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics“.

Happy Birthday E.S. Pearson!

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## 11th bullet, multiple choice question, and last thoughts on the JSM

I. Apparently I left out the last bullet in my scribbled notes from Silver’s talk. There was an 11th. Someone sent it to me from a blog: revolution analytics:

11. Like scientists, journalists ought to be more concerned with the truth rather than just appearances. He suggested that maybe they should abandon the legal paradigm of seeking an adversarial approach and behave more like scientists looking for the truth.

OK. But, given some of the issues swirling around the last few posts, I think it’s worth noting that scientists are not disinterested agents looking for the truth—it’s only thanks to its (adversarial!) methods that they advance upon truth. Question: What’s the secret of scientific progress (in those areas that advance learning)?  Answer: Even if each individual scientist were to strive mightily to ensure that his/her theory wins out, the stringent methods of the enterprise force that theory to show its mettle or die (or at best remain in limbo). You might say, “But there are plenty of stubborn hard cores in science”. Sure, and they fail to advance. In those sciences that lack sufficiently stringent controls, the rate of uncorrected spin is as bad as Silver suggests it is in journalism. Think of social psychologist Diederik Stapel setting out to show what is already presumed to be believable. (See here and here and search this blog.).

There’s a strange irony when the same people who proclaim, “We must confront those all too human flaws and foibles that obstruct the aims of truth and correctness”, turn out to be enablers, by championing methods that enable flaws and foibles to seep through. It may be a slip of logic. Here’s a multiple choice question:

Multiple choice: Circle all phrases that correctly complete the “conclusion“:

Let’s say that factor F is known to obstruct the correctness/validity of solutions to problems, or that factor F is known to adversely impinge on inferences.

(Examples of such factors include: biases, limited information, incentives—of various sorts).

Factor F is known to adversely influence inferences.

Conclusion: Therefore any adequate systematic account of inference should _______

(a) allow F to influence inferences.
(b) provide a formal niche by which F can influence inferences.
(c) take precautions to block (or at least be aware of) the ability of F to adversely influence inferences.
(d) none of the above.

(For an example, see discussion of #7 in previous post.)

II. I may be overlooking sessions (inform me if you know of any), but I would have expected more on the statistics in the Higgs boson discoveries at the JSM 2013. Especially given the desire to emphasize the widespread contributions of statistics to the latest sexy science[i].  (At one point, I was asked about being part of a session on the five sigma effect in the Higgs boson discovery–not that I’m any kind of expert– by David Banks, because of my related blog posts (e.g., here), but people were already in other sessions. But I’m thinking about something splashy by statisticians in particle physics.) Did I miss? [ii]

III. I think it’s easy to see why lots of people showed up to hear Nate Silver: It’s fun to see someone “in the news”, be it from politics, finance, high tech, acting, TV, or, even academics–I, for one, was curious. I’m sure as many would have come out to hear Esther Duflo, Cheryl Sandberg, Fabiola Gionatti, or even Huma Abedin–to list some that happen to come to mind– or any number of others who have achieved recent recognition (and whose work intersects in some way with statistics). It’s interesting that I don’t see pop philosophers invited to give key addresses in yearly philosophy meetings; maybe because philosophers eschew popularity. I may be unaware of some; I don’t attend so many meetings.

IV. Other thoughts: I’ve only been to a handful of “official” statistics meetings. Obviously the # of simultaneous sessions makes the JSM a kind of factory experience, but that’s to be expected. But do people really need to purchase those JSM backpacks? I don’t know how much of the \$400 registration fee goes to that, but it seems wasteful…. I saw people tossing theirs out, which I didn’t have the heart to do. Perhaps I’m just showing my outsider status.

V. Montreal: I intended to practice my French, but kept bursting into English too soon. Everyone I met (who lives there) complained about the new money and doing away with pennies in the near future. I wonder if we’re next.

[i]On Silver’s remark (in response to a “tweeted” question) that “data science” is a “sexed-up” term for statistics, I don’t know. I can see reflecting deeply over the foundations of statistical inference, but over the foundations of data analytics?

[ii] You don’t suppose the controversy about particle physics being “bad science” had anything to do with downplaying the Higgs statistics?

Categories: Higgs, Statistics, StatSci meets PhilSci

## What did Nate Silver just say? Blogging the JSM

Nate Silver gave his ASA Presidential talk to a packed audience (with questions tweeted[i]). Here are some quick thoughts—based on scribbled notes (from last night). Silver gave a list of 10 points that went something like this (turns out there were 11):

1. statistics are not just numbers

2. context is needed to interpret data

3. correlation is not causation

4. averages are the most useful tool

5. human intuitions about numbers tend to be flawed and biased

6. people misunderstand probability

7. we should be explicit about our biases and (in this sense) should be Bayesian?

8. complexity is not the same as not understanding

9. being in the in crowd gets in the way of objectivity

10. making predictions improves accountability

Just to comment on #7, I don’t know if this is a brand new philosophy of Bayesianism, but his position went like this: Journalists and others are incredibly biased, they view data through their prior conceptions, wishes, goals, and interests, and you cannot expect them to be self-critical enough to be aware of, let alone be willing to expose, their propensity toward spin, prejudice, etc. Silver said the reason he favors the Bayesian philosophy (yes he used the words “philosophy” and “epistemology”) is that people should be explicit about disclosing their biases. I have three queries: (1) If we concur that people are so inclined to see the world through their tunnel vision, what evidence is there that they are able/willing to be explicit about their biases? (2) If priors are to be understood as the way to be explicit about one’s biases, shouldn’t they be kept separate from the data rather than combined with them? (3) I don’t think this is how Bayesians view Bayesianism or priors—is it? Subjective Bayesians, I thought, view priors as representing prior or background information about the statistical question of interest; but Silver sees them as admissions of prejudice, bias or what have you. As a confession of bias, I’d be all for it—though I think people may be better at exposing other’s biases than their own. Only thing: I’d need an entirely distinct account of warranted inference from data.

This does possibly explain some inexplicable remarks in Silver’s book to the effect that R.A. Fisher denied, excluded, or overlooked human biases since he disapproved of adding subjective prior beliefs to data in scientific contexts. Is Silver just about to recognize/appreciate the genius of Fisher (and others) in developing techniques consciously designed to find things out despite knowledge gaps, variability, and human biases? Or not?

Share your comments and/or links to other blogs discussing his talk (which will surely be posted if it isn’t already). Fill in gaps if you were there—I was far away… (See also my previous post blogging the JSM).

[i] What was the point of this, aside from permitting questions to be cherry picked? (It would have been fun to see ALL the queries tweeted.) The ones I heard were limited to: how can we make statistics more attractive, who is your favorite journalist, favorite baseball player, and so on. But I may have missed some, I left before the end.

For a follow-up post including an 11th bullet that I’d missed, see here. My first post on JSM13 (8/5/13) was here.

Categories: Error Statistics, Statistics

## At the JSM: 2013 International Year of Statistics

“2013 is the International Year of Statistics” the JSM (Joint Statistical Meetings) brochures ring out! What does it mean?  Whatever it is, it’s exciting! Errorstatistics.com never took up this question, but it’s been on some of the blogs in my “Blog bagel”. So, Since I’m at the JSM here in Montreal, I may report on any clues. Please share your comments. I’m not a statistician, but a philosopher of science, and of inductive-statistical inference much more generally. So I have no dog in this fight, as they say. (Or do I? ) On the other hand, I have often rued “the decline of late in the lively and long-standing exchange between philosophers of science and statisticians” (see this post). [i] (We did have that one parody on “big data or pig data”.)

I know from Larry Wasserman (normaldeviate) that the “year of” label grows, at least in part, to help prevent Statistical Science being eclipsed by the fashionable “Big Data” crowd. In one blog he even spoke of “the end of statistics”. “Aren’t We Data Science?” Marie Davidian, president of the ASA, asks in a recent AmStatNews article.[ii] Davidian worries, correctly I’ve no doubt, that Big Dadaists may be collecting data with “little appreciation for the power of design principle. Statisticians could propel major advances through developments of ‘experimental design for the 21st century’!”.  This recalls Stan Young’s recent post:

Until relatively recently, the microarray samples were not sent through assay equipment in random order. Clinical trial statisticians at GSK insisted that the samples go through assay in random order. Rather amazingly the data became less messy and p-values became more orderly. The story is given here:  http://blog.goldenhelix.com/?p=322.  Essentially all the microarray data pre-2010 is unreliable…..So often the problem is not with p-value technology, but with the design and conduct of the study.

So without statistical design principles, they may have wasted a decade!

Back to the JSM, I see they’ve even invited pollster Nate Silver to give the AMA presidential address. I thought he was more baseball stat expert/pundit/pollster than statistician, but some are calling him an “analytics rock star”. Never mind that there’s at least one extremely strange chapter (8) in his popular book (The Signal and the Noise). Here’s an excerpt from Wasserman’s review, which he titles:  “Nate Silver is a Frequentist: Review of The signal and the noise”:

I have one complaint. Silver is a big fan of Bayesian inference, which is fine. Unfortunately, he falls into that category I referred to a few posts ago. He confuses ‘Bayesian inference’ with ‘using Bayes’ theorem.’ His description of frequentist inference is terrible. He seems to equate frequentist inference with Fisherian significance testing, most using Normal distributions. Either he learned statistics from a bad book or he hangs out with statisticians with a significant anti-frequentist bias. Have no doubt about it: Nate Silver is a frequentist.[iii] (Wasserman)

I didn’t discuss Silver’s book on this blog, but looking up a few comments I made on other blogs, (e.g.,on a Gelman blog reviewing Silver), I see I am a bit less generous than Wasserman: “Frequentists, Silver alleges, go around reporting hypotheses like toads predict earthquakes and other “manifestly ridiculous” findings that are licensed by significance testing and data dredged correlations. (Silver, 253). But it is the frequentist who prevents such spurious correlations…. “  (Mayo) So Silver’s criticisms of frequents are way off base.  I was also slightly aghast at his Fisher ridicule and I poke fun at his “All-You-Need is Bayesian cheerleading. The simple use of Bayes Theorem solves all problems (he seems not to realize they too require statistical models)” I wrote.  It’s hard to tell if he’s just reporting or chiming in with those who advocate that schools stop teaching frequentist methods. Some statistical self-inflicted wounds perhaps? The other chapters look interesting, though I didn’t get too much further…(The Bayesian examples are all ordinary frequentist updating, it appears.)   If I can, I’ll go to Silver’s talk.

[i] In that post I wrote: “Philosophy of statistical science not only deals with the philosophical foundations of statistics but also questions about the nature of and justification for inductive-statistical learning more generally. So it is ironic that just as philosophy of science is striving to immerse itself in and be relevant to scientific practice, that statistical science and philosophy of science—so ahead of their time in combining the work of philosophers and practicing scientists—should see such dialogues become rather rare.  (See special topic here.)” (Mayo)

[ii] Some of the turf battles I hear about appear to reflect less substance than style (i.e., people being galvanized to use the latest meme in funding opportunities). Even in philosophy, the dept. head asked us to try and work it in.   In my view, rather than suggesting “Plato and Big Data”, they should be asking to highlight interconnections between statistical evidence, critical thinking, logic, ethics,  philosophy of science, and epistemology. That would advance our courses.

[iii] For example, Wasserman says, in his review of Silver:

One of the most important tests of a forecast — I would argue that it is the single most important one — is called calibration. Out of all the times you said there was a 40 percent chance of rain, how often did rain actually occur? If over the long run, it really did rain about 40 percent of the time, that means your forecasts were well calibrated.  (Wasserman)

Categories: Error Statistics

## Blogging (flogging?) the SLP: Response to Reply- Xi’an Robert

Breaking through “the breakthrough”

Christian Robert’s reply grows out of my last blogpost. On Xi’an’s Og :

A quick reply from my own Elba, in the Dolomiti: your arguments (about the sad consequences of the SLP) are not convincing wrt the derivation of SLP=WCP+SP. If I built a procedure that reports (E1,x*) whenever I observe (E1,x*) or (E2,y*), this obeys the sufficiency principle; doesn’t it? (Sorry to miss your talk!)

Mayo’s response to Xi’an on the “sad consequences of the SLP.”[i]

This is a useful reply (so to me it’s actually not ‘flogging’ the SLP[ii]), and, in fact, I think Xi’an will now see why my arguments are convincing! Let’s use Xi’an’s procedure to make a parametric inference about q. Getting the report x* from Xi’an’s procedure, we know it could have come from E1 or E2. In that case, the WCP forbids us from using either individual experiment to compute the inference implication. We use the sampling distribution of TB.

Birnbaum’s statistic TB is a technically sufficient statistic for Birnbaum’s experiment EB  (the conditional distribution of Z given TB is independent of q). The question of whether this is the relevant or legitimate way to compute the inference when it is given that y* came from E2 is the big question. The WCP says it is not. Now you are free to use Xi’an’s procedure (free to Birnbaumize) but that does not yield the SLP. Nor did Birnbaum think it did. That’s why he goes on to say: “Never mind. Don’t use Xi’an’s procedure.  Compute the inference using E2  just as the WCP tells you to. You know it came from E. Isn’t that what David Cox taught us in 1958?”

Fine. But still no SLP!  Note it’s not that SP and WCP conflict, it’s WCP and Birnbaumization that conflict. The application of a principle will always be relative to the associated model used to frame the question.[iii]

These points are all spelled out clearly in my paper: [I can’t get double subscripts here. Eis the same as E-B][iv]

Given y*, the WCP says do not Birnbaumize. One is free to do so, but not to simultaneously claim to hold the WCP in relation to the given y*, on pain of logical contradiction. If one does choose to Birnbaumize, and to construct TB, admittedly, the known outcome y* yields the same value of TB as would x*. Using the sample space of EB yields: (B): InfrE-B[x*] = InfrE-B[y*]. This is based on the convex combination of the two experiments, and differs from both InfrE1[x*] and InfrE2[y*]. So again, any SLP violation remains. Granted, if only the value of TB is given, using InfrE-B may be appropriate. For then we are given only the disjunction: Either (E1, x*) or (E2, y*). In that case one is barred from using the implication from either individual Ei. A holder of WCP might put it this way: once (E,z) is given, whether E arose from a q-irrelevant mixture, or was fixed all along, should not matter to the inference; but whether a result was Birnbaumized or not should, and does, matter.

There is no logical contradiction in holding that if data are analyzed one way (using the convex combination in EB), a given answer results, and if analyzed another way (via WCP) one gets quite a different result. One may consistently apply both the Eand the WCP directives to the same result, in the same experimental model, only in cases where WCP makes no difference. To claim the WCP never makes a difference, however, would entail that there can be no SLP violations, which would make the argument circular. Another possibility, would be to hold, as Birnbaum ultimately did, that the SLP is “clearly plausible” (Birnbaum 1968, 301) only in “the severely restricted case of a parameter space of just two points” where these are predesignated (Birnbaum 1969, 128). But SLP violations remain.

Note: The final draft of my paper uses equations that do not transfer directly to this blog. Hence, these sections are from a draft of my paper.

[i] Although I didn’t call them “sad,” I think it would be too bad to accept the SLP’s consequences. Listen to Birnbaum:

The likelihood principle is incompatible with the main body of modern statistical theory and practice, notably the Neyman-Pearson theory of hypothesis testing and of confidence intervals, and incompatible in general even with such well-known concepts as standard error of an estimate and significance level. (Birnbaum 1968, 300)

That is why Savage called it “a breakthrough” result. In the end, however, Birnbaum could not give up on control of error probabilities. He held the SLP only for the trivial case of predesignated simple hypotheses. (Or, perhaps he spied the gap in his argument? I suspect, from his writings, that he realized his argument went through only for such cases that do not violate the SLP.)

[ii] Readers may feel differently.

[iii] Excerpt from a draft of my paper:
Model checking. An essential part of the statements of the principles SP, WCP, and SLP is that the validity of the model is granted as adequately representing the experimental conditions at hand (Birnbaum 1962, 491). Thus, accounts that adhere to the SLP are not thereby prevented from analyzing features of the data such as residuals, which are relevant to questions of checking the statistical model itself. There is some ambiguity on this point in Casella and R. Berger (2002):

Most model checking is, necessarily, based on statistics other than a sufficient statistic. For example, it is common practice to examine residuals from a model.  . . Such a practice immediately violates the Sufficiency Principle, since the residuals are not based on sufficient statistics. (Of course such a practice directly violates the [strong] LP also.) (Casella and R. Berger 2002, 295-6)

They warn that before considering the SLP and WCP, “we must be comfortable with the model” (296). It seems to us more accurate to regard the principles as inapplicable, rather than violated, when the adequacy of the relevant model is lacking.

Birnbaum, A.1968. “Likelihood.” In International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences, 9:299–301. New York: Macmillan and the Free Press.

———. 1969. “Concepts of Statistical Evidence.” In Philosophy, Science, and Method: Essays in Honor of Ernest Nagel, edited by S. Morgenbesser, P. Suppes, and M. G. White, 112–143. New York: St. Martin’s Press.

Casella, G., and R. L. Berger. 2002. Statistical Inference. 2nd ed. Belmont, CA: Duxbury Press.

Categories: Birnbaum Brakes, Statistics, strong likelihood principle