**Captain’s Bibliography with Links (pdf):**

** Mayo and A. Spanos
PHIL 6334/ ECON 6614: Spring 2019: Current Debates on Statistical Inference and Modeling**

*Bibliography **(this includes a selection of articles with links; *numbers 1-15 after the item refer to seminar meeting number.)

Achinstein (2010). Mill’s Sins or Mayo’s Errors? (**E&I**: 170-188). (11)

Bacchus, Kyburg, & Thalos (1990).Against Conditionalization, *Synthese*(85): 475-506. (15)

Barnett (1999). *Comparative Statistical Inference *(Chapter 6: Bayesian Inference), John Wiley & Sons. (1), (15)

Begley & Ellis (2012) Raise standards for preclinical cancer research. *Nature *483: 531-533. (10)

Bem (2011). Feeling the Future: Experimental Evidence for Anomalous Retroactive Influences on Cognition and Affect, *Journal of Personality and Social Psychology*100(3), 407–425. (10)

Bem, Utts & Johnson (2011). Must Psychologists Change the Way They Analyze Their Data? *Journal of Personality and Social Psychology*, 101(4), 716–719. (10)

Benjamin, Berger, Johannesson et al (2017) Redefine Statistical Significance, *Nature Human Behaviour*2, 6-10. (9)

Benjamini & Hochberg (1995). Controlling the False Discovery Rate: A Practical and Powerful Approach to Multiple Testing, *Journal of The Royal Statistical Society*. (10)

Berger, J. (2003). Could Fisher, Jeffreys and Neyman have Agreed on Testing? *Stat Sci*18: 1-12. (1), (5), (6)

Berger, J. (2006). The Case for Objective Bayesian Analysisand Rejoinder, Bayesian Analysis 1(3), 385–402; 457–64. (8)

Berger, J. & Sellke (1987). Testing a Point Null Hypothesis: The Irreconcilability of P Values and Evidence (with Discussion and Rejoinder), *Journal of the American Statistical Association*82(397), 112–22; 135–9. (6), (9).

Bernardo, J. (1997). Non-informative Priors Do Not Exist: A Dialogue with Jose M. Bernardo, *Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference *65(1), 159-77. (7)

Bernardo, J. (2010). Integrated Objective Bayesian Estimation and Hypothesis Testing (with discussion), *Bayesian Statistics*9, 1–68. (9)

Brown, E. N. and Kass, R. E. (2009). What is Statistics? (with discussion), *The American Statistician*63, 105–23. (1), (15)

Birnbaum, A. (1970), Statistical Methods in Scientific Inference (letter to the Editor), *Nature*225(5237): 1033 (1)

For extensive Birnbaum references see this poston *Error Statistics Philosophy Blog*

Casella & R. Berger (1987a). Reconciling Bayesian and Frequentist Evidence in the One-sided Testing Problem,*Journal of the American Statistical Association *82(397), 106–11. (9)

Casella, G. and Berger, R. (1987b). Comment on Testing Precise Hypotheses by J. O. Berger and M. Delampady, *Statistical Science*2(3), 344–7. (9)

Colquhoun, D. (2014). ‘An Investigation of the False Discovery Rate and the Misinterpretation of P-values’, *Royal Society Open Science*1(3), 140216 (16 pages). (14)

Cousins, R. (2017). ‘The Jeffreys-Lindley Paradox and Discovery Criteria in High Energy Physics’, *Synthese*194, 395–432.(7)

Cox, D. (1977). The Role of Significance Tests (with Discussion), *Scandinavian Journal of Statistics*4, 49–70. (4), (5)

Cox, D. (2006a).*Principles of Statistical Inference*, CUP.

Cox & Mayo (2010). Objectivity and Conditionality in Frequentist Inference(**E&I**: 276-304). (6)

Cox & Mayo (2011) *A Statistical Scientist Meets a Philosopher of Science: A Conversation between Sir David Cox and Deborah Mayo (as recorded, June 2011).** Rationality, Markets and Morals (RMM), 2, *Special Topic: Statistical Science and Philosophy of Science, 103-114. (8)

Crupi & Tentori (2010).Irrelevant Conjunction: Statement and Solution of a New Paradox, *Phil Sci*, 77, 1–13. (3)

Earman, J. and Glymour, C. (1980). ‘Relativity and Eclipses: The British EclipseExpeditions of 1919 and Their Predecessors’, *Historical Studies in the Physical**Sciences*11(1), 49–85. (5)

Edwards, Lindman & Savage E, L, & S (1963). Bayesian Statistical Inference for Psychological Research, *Psychological Review*70(3), 193–242. (1)

Efron, B. (1986). Why Isn’t Everyone a Bayesian?, *The American Statistician*40(1), 1–5. (4)

Efron, B. (1998). R. A. Fisher in the 21st Century and Rejoinder, Statistical Science 13(3), 95–114; 121–2. (10)

Efron (2013) A 250-Year Argument: Belief, Behavior, and the Bootstrap, *Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society *50(1), 126–46. (15)

Feynman (1974). Cargo Cult Science (Graduation Speech) (1), (4)

Fisher (1930).Inverse Probability, *Mathematical Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society*26(4), 528–35. (7)

Fisher (1934).Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood, *Proceedings of the Royal Society of London*Series A 144 (852), 285–307. (7)

Fisher (1935a)/(1947).*The Design of Experiments*, 1st ed., Edinburgh: Oliver and Boyd. Reprinted in Fisher 1990. (Lady Tasting Tea) (1)

Fisher, R. A. (1936), Uncertain Inference, *Proceedings of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences*71, 248–58. (7)

Fisher (1955), Statistical Methods and Scientific Induction, *J R Stat Soc *(B) 17: 69-78. (1), (5) **(7)**

Fitelson & Hawthorne (2004). Re-Solving Irrelevant Conjunction with Probabilistic Independence, *Phil Sci* *71*: 505–514. (3)

Gelman (2011). Induction and Deduction in Bayesian Data Analysis, *RMM*2, 67-78. (11)

Gelman & Carlin (2014). Beyond Power Calculations: Assessing Type S (Sign) and Type M (Magnitude) Errors, *Perspectives on Psychological Science*9, 641–51. (9)

Gelman & Hennig(2017). Beyond Subjective and Objective in Statistics, *Journal of the Royal Statistical Society*: Series A 180(4), 967–1033. (15)

Gelman & Loken (2014). The Statistical Crisis in Science, *American Scientist*2, 460-5. (4)

Gelman & Shalizi (2013). Philosophy and the Practice of Bayesian Statistics (with discussion), *Brit. J. Math. Stat. Psy.** *66(1): 5-64. (15)

Gigerenzer and Marewski (2017). Surrogate Science: The Idol of a Universal Method for Scientific Inference, * Journal of management*41(2), 421-40. (8)

Gonick & Smith (1992). *The Cartoon Guide to Statistics*HarperPerennial.

Goodman (1993). P-values, Hypothesis Tests, and Likelihood-Implications for Epidemiology of a Neglected Historical Debate, *American Journal of Epidemiology*137(5), 485–96. (13)

Goodman (1999). Toward Evidence-Based Medical Statistics. 2: The Bayes Factor, *Annals of Internal Medicine*, 130(12), 1005–13. (10)

Greenland (2012). Nonsignificance Plus High Power Does Not Imply Support for the Null Over the Alternative, *Annals of Epidemiology *22, 364–8. (14)

Greenland & Poole (2013). Living with P Values: Resurrecting a Bayesian Perspective on Frequentist Statistics and Rejoinder: Living with Statistics in Observational Research, Epidemiology 24(1), 62–8; 73–8. Gelman comment. (9)

Greenland, Senn, Rothman et al. (2016). Statistical Tests, P values, Confidence Intervals, and Power: A Guide to Misinterpretations, *European Journal of Epidemiology*31(4), 337–50. (9)

Hacking (1972). Review: Likelihood, *The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science*23(2), 132–7. (1)

Hacking (1980). The Theory of Probable Inference: Neyman, Peirce and Braithwaite, in Mellor, D. (ed.), *Science, Belief and Behavior: Essays in Honourof R. B. Braithwaite*, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 141–60. (1) (3)

Haig, B. (2016). ‘Tests of Statistical Significance Made Sound’, *Educational and Psychological Measurement *77(3) 489–506. (9)

Howson (1997). A Logic of Induction, *Phil Sci*64(2): 268-290. (15)

Howson (2017). Putting on the Garber Style? Better Not, *Philosophy of Science *84(4), 659-76. (1)

Howson & Urbach (1993) Chapter 15, (2006) Chapter 5. *Scientific Reasoning: The Bayesian Approach*, 2^{nd} & 3^{rd}(Chapter 5) eds. Open court. (10)

Hubbard & Bayarri (2003). Confusion Over Measures of Evidence versus Errors and Rejoinder, *The American Statistician*57(3), 171-8; 181-2. (6)

Ioannidis (2005). Why most published research ﬁndings are false. PLoS Med 2(8): e124. (14)

Kadane (2016). Beyond Hypothesis Testing, *Entropy*18(5), article 199, 1–5. (6)

Kass (2011). Statistical Inference: The Big Picture(with discussion and rejoinder),*Statistical Science*26(1), 1–20. (15)

Kass & Wasserman (1996). The Selection of Prior Distributions by Formal Rules, *Journal of the American Statistical Association*91, 1343–70. (15)

Lakens et al (2018) Justify Your Alpha *Nature Human Behaviour*2, 168-71. (9)

Lambert & Black (2012). Learning From Our GWAS Mistakes: From Experimental Design to Scientific Method, Biostatistics 13(2), 195–203. (10)

Lehmann (1993a). ‘The Bertrand-Borel Debate and the Origins of the Neyman-Pearson Theory’, in Ghosh, J., Mitra, S., Parthasarathy, K. and Prak Ma Rao, L. (eds.), Statistics and Probability: A Raghu Raj Bahadur Festschrift, New Delhi:Wiley Eastern, 371–80. Reprinted in Lehmann 2012, pp. 965–74. (10)

Levelt Committee, Noort Committee, Drenth Committee (2012). Flawed Science: The Fraudulent Research Practices of Social Psychologist Diederik Stapel, Stapel Investigation: Joint Tilburg/Groningen/Amsterdam investigation of the publications by Mr. Stapel (www.commissielevelt.nl/). (4)

Lindley (2000). The Philosophy of Statistics (with Discussion), *Journal of the Royal Statistical Society*: Series D 49(3), 293–337. (15)

Mayo general bibliography

Mayo (1996).*Error and the Growth of Experimental Knowledge*, U of Chicago P.

Mayo (1997).Response to Howson and Laudan,*Phil Sci*64(2): 323-333. (15)

Mayo (2003). Commentary on J. Berger’s Fisher Address, *Stat Sci* 18: 19-24. (1), (5), **(6)**

Mayo (2004). An Error-Statistical Philosophy of Evidencein *The Nature of Scientific Evidence: Statistical, Philosophical & Empirical Considerations. *(Taper & Lele eds.), UCP: 79-118. (1)

Mayo (2005). Philosophy of Statisticsin Sarkar & Pfeifer (eds.) *Philosophy of Science: An Encyclopedia*, Routledge: 802-815. (1)

Mayo (2010b__).__An Error in the Argument from Conditionality and Sufficiency to the Likelihood Principle(**E&I**: 305-14). (6)

Mayo (2010c). Sins of the Epistemic Probabilist: Exchanges with Achinstein(**E&I**: 189-201). (11)

Mayo (2010e). Learning from Error: The Theoretical Significance of Experimental Knowledge, *The Modern Schoolman*. Guest editor, Kent Staley. 87(3/4), (March/ May 2010). Experimental and Theoretical Knowledge, The Ninth Henle Conference in the History of Philosophy, 191–217.

Mayo (2013) Presented Version: On the Birnbaum Argument for the Strong Likelihood Principle. In *JSM Proceedings*, Section on Bayesian Statistical Science. Alexandria, VA: American Statistical Association, 440-453. (6)

Mayo (2013). Comments on A. Gelman and C. Shalizi, *Brit. J. Math. Stat. Psy.** *66(1): 57-64. (15)

Mayo (2014). On the Birnbaum Argument for the Strong Likelihood Principle, (with discussion) *Statistical Science *29(2) pp. 227-239, 261-266*. *(6)

Mayo (2016). Don’t Throw Out the Error Control Baby with the Bad Statistics Bathwater: A Commentary on Wasserstein, R. L. and Lazar, N. A. 2016, The ASA’s Statement on p-Values: Context, Process, and Purpose, *The American Statistician*70(2) (supplemental materials). (1), (7), (15)

Mayo & Cox (2006). Frequentist Statistics as a Theory of Inductive Inference, *Optimality: The Second Erich L. Lehmann Symposium *(ed. J. Rojo), Lecture Notes-Monograph series, Institute of Mathematical Statistics (IMS), Vol. 49: 77-97. (5)

Mayo & Spanos (2004). Methodology in Practice: Statistical Misspecification Testing, *Phil Sci* 71: 1007-1025. (12)

Mayo & Spanos (2006). Severe Testing as a Basic Concept in a Neyman-Pearson Philosophy of Induction, *Brit. J. Phil. Sci.*, 57: 323-357. (5), (13)

Mayo & Spanos (eds) (2010). *Error and Inference: Recent Exchanges on Experimental Reasoning, Reliability and the Objectivity and Rationality of Science*, CUP. (**E&I**)

Mayo & Spanos (2011). Error Statisticsin *Philosophy of Statistics , Handbook of Philosophy of Science* 7, *Philosophy of Statistics*, (Gabbay, Thagard & Woods (eds); Bandyopadhyay & Forster (Vol eds.)) Elsevier: 1-46. (1)

Mayo, Spanos & Staley (Guest eds.) (2011-2012): *Rationality, Markets and Morals: Studies at the Intersection of Philosophy and Economics*, (Albert, Kliemt, Lahno eds.). Special Topic: *Statistical Science and Philosophy of Science: Where Do (Should) They Meet in 2011 and Beyond?*(Complete collection of papers).

Meehl (1978). Theoretical Risks and Tabular Asterisks: Sir Karl, Sir Ronald, and the Slow Progress of Soft Psychology, *Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology*46: 806-834. (4)

Neyman, J. (1934). ‘On the Two Different Aspects of the Representative Method: The Method of Stratified Sampling and the Method of Purposive Selection’, *The Journal of the Royal Statistical Society*97(4), 558–625. Reprinted 1967 *Early Statistical Papers of J. Neyman*, 98–141.

Neyman (1956). Note on an Article by Sir Ronald Fisher, *J R Stat Soc*(B) 18: 288-294. (7)

Neyman (1957b). The Use of the Concept of Power in Agricultural Experimentation, *Journal of the Indian Society of Agricultural Statistics*IX(1), 9–17.

Neyman (1962). Two Breakthroughs in the Theory of Statistical Decision Making, *Revue De l’Institut International De Statistique / Review of the International Statistical Institute*, 30(1),11–27. (7)

Neyman (1976). Tests of Statistical Hypotheses and Their Use in Studies of Natural Phenomena’,*Communications in Statistics: Theory and Methods*5(8), 737–51. (5)

Neyman (1977). Frequentist Probability and Frequentist Statistics, *Synthese*36(1), 97–131. (10)

Neyman & Pearson (1928). On the Use and Interpretation of Certain Test Criteria for Purposes of Statistical Inference: Part I, Biometrika 20A(1/2), 175–240. Reprinted in *Joint Statistical Papers*, 1–66. (6)

Neyman & Pearson (1933)On the Problem of the Most Efficient Tests of Statistical Hypotheses, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series A 231, 289–337. Reprinted in*Joint Statistical Papers*, 140–85. (10)

Pearson (1947). The Choice of Statistical Tests Illustrated on the Interpretation of Data Classed in a 2 Å~ 2 Table, *Biometrika*34 (1/2), 139–167. Reprinted 1966 in *The Selected Papers of E. S. Pearson*, pp. 169–200. (5)

Pearson (1955). Statistical Concepts in Their Relation to Reality, *J R Stat Soc*(B) 17: 204-207. (7)

Pearson & Chandra Sekar (1936). ‘The Efficiency of Statistical Tools and a Criterion for the Rejection of Outlying Observations’, Biometrika 28 (3/4), 308–20. Reprinted 1966 in The Selected Papers of E. S. Pearson, pp. 118–30. (10)

Pearson & Neyman (1930). ‘On the Problem of Two Samples,’ Bulletin of the Academy of Polish Sciences, 73–96. Reprinted 1966 in *Joint Statistical Papers*, 99–115. (2)

Peng, Dominici & Zeger (2006). Reproducible Epidemiologic Research *American Journal of Epidemiology*163 (9), 783-789. (4), (10)

Popper (1962).*Conjectures and Refutations*: *The Growth of Scientific Knowledge.*Basic Books. (4)

Ratliff & Oishi (2013). Gender Differences in Implicit Self-Esteem. Following a Romantic Partner’s Success or Failure, *Journal of Personality and Social Psychology*105(4), 688–702. (4)

Reid & Cox (2015). ‘On Some Principles of Statistical Inference’, International Statistical Review 83(2), 293–308. (2), (15)

Savage Forum(1962) *The Foundations of Statistical Inference: A Discussion*, London: Methuen. (15)

Senn (2001b). ‘Two Cheers for P-values?’ *Journal of Epidemiology and Biostatistics*6(2), 193–204.

Senn (2002). ‘A Comment on Replication, P-values and Evidence’, S. N. Goodman,Statistics in Medicine 1992; 11:875-879’, *Statistics in Medicine*21(16), 2437–44. (9)

Senn (2011).You May Believe You Are a Bayesian But You Are Probably Wrong. *RMM** *2. (15).

Simmons, Nelson & Simonsohn (2011). False-Positive Psychology: Undisclosed* *Flexibility in Data Collection and Analysis Allow Presenting Anything as Significant, *Psych. Sci.***,** 22(11): 1359-1366.(1)

Simmons, Nelson & Simonsohn (2012). ‘A 21 word solution’, Dialogue: The Official Newsletter of the Society for Personality and Social Psychology 26(2), 4–7. (8)

Singh, Xie & Strawderman (2007). Confidence Distribution (CD) Distribution Estimator of a Parameter, *IMS Lecture Notes*–Monograph Series, Volume 54, *Complex Datasets and Inverse Problems: Tomography, Networks and Beyond*, pp. 132–50. (7)

Spanos (2000). Revisiting Data Mining: “Hunting” with or without a License, *Journal of Economic Methodology*7(2), 231–64.

Spanos (2007). Curve Fitting, the Reliability of Inductive Inference, and the Error- Statistical Approach, *Philosophy of Science*74 (5), 1046-1066.

Spanos (2008a). Review of S. T. Ziliak and D. N. McCloskey’s The Cult of Statistical Significance, *Erasmus Journal for Philosophy and Economics*1(1), 154–64. (14)

Spanos (2010a). Akaike-type Criteria and the Reliability of Inference: Model Selection Versus Statistical Model Specification, *Journal of Econometrics*158(2), 204–20. (12)

Spanos, A. (2011b). ‘Foundational Issues in Statistical Modeling: Statistical Model Specification and Validation’, *Rationality, Markets and Morals*(RMM) 2, 146–78.

Spanos (2012). Revisiting the Berger Location Model: Fallacious Confidence Interval or a Rigged Example?*Statistical Methodology*, 9, 555–61. (7)

Spanos (2013). Who Should Be Afraid of the Jeffreys-Lindley Paradox?*Phi Sci* 80 (1):73-93. (8), (9)

Spiegelhalter (2012). Explaining 5 Sigma for the Higgs: How Well Did They Do?, Blogpost on Understandinguncertainty.org (8/7/2012).

Staley (2017). Pragmatic Warrant for Frequentist Statistical Practice: The Case of High Energy Physics, *Synthese*194(2), 355–76 (7)

Stapel (2014).*Faking Science: A True Story of Academic Fraud.*Translated by Brown, N. from the original 2012 Dutch Ontsporing (Derailment). (4)

Wagenmakers, (2007). A Practical Solution to the Pervasive Problems of P values, *Psychonomic Bulletin & Review*14(5), 779–804. (10)

Wagenmakers & Grünwald (2006). A Bayesian Perspective on Hypothesis Testing: A Comment on Killeen (2005), *Psychological Science*17(7), 641–2. (9)

Wagenmakers, Wetzels, Borsboom & van der Maas (2011). Why Psychologists Must Change the Way They Analyze Their Data: The Case of Psi: Comment on Bem (2011), *Journal of Personality and Social Psychology*100, 426–32. (10)

Wasserstein & Lazar (2016). The ASA’s Statement on P-values: Context, Process and Purpose, (and supplemental materials), *The American Statistician*70(2), 129–33. (1), (7), (15)

Zabell (1992). R. A. Fisher and Fiducial Argument*, Statistical Science*7(3), 369–87. (7)