It’s not too late to register for Sessions #3 and #4 of our online Workshop. There will be 7 new (live) speakers and, for the the first time ever, the (short) movie; “The Recap of recaps” will be shown at the start of session #3. **registration form**

## SCHEDULE: The Statistics Wars and Their Casualties: 1 Dec & 8 Dec: Sessions 3 & 4

## Final Sessions: The Statistics Wars and Their Casualties: 1 December and 8 December

**The Statistics Wars**

**and Their Casualties**

**1 December and 8 December 2022
Sessions #3 and #4 **

**15:00-18:15 pm London Time/10:00am-1:15pm EST
**

**ONLINE**

**(London School of Economics, CPNSS)**

**registration form****For slides and videos of Sessions #1 and #2: see the workshop page**

**1 December**

**Session 3** (Moderator: Daniël Lakens, Eindhoven University of Technology)

**OPENING **

**“What Happened So Far”:**A medley (20 min) of recaps from Sessions 1 & 2: Deborah Mayo (Virginia Tech), Richard Morey (Cardiff), Stephen Senn (Edinburgh), Daniël Lakens (Eindhoven), Christian Hennig (Bologna) & Yoav Benjamini (Tel Aviv).

**SPEAKERS**

**Daniele Fanelli**(London School of Economics and Political Science)*The neglected importance of complexity in statistics and Metascience*(Abstract)**Stephan Guttinger**(University of Exeter)*What are questionable research practices?*(Abstract)**David J. Hand**(Imperial College, London)*What’s the question?*(Abstract)

**DISCUSSIONS**:

- Closing Panel:
**“Where Should Stat Activists Go From Here (Part i)?”**: Yoav Benjamini, Daniele Fanelli, Stephan Guttinger, David Hand, Christian Hennig, Daniël Lakens, Deborah Mayo, Richard Morey, Stephen Senn

**8 December**

**Session 4** (Moderator: Deborah Mayo, Virginia Tech)

**SPEAKERS**

**Jon Williamson**(University of Kent)*Causal inference is not statistical inference*(Abstract)**Margherita Harris**(London School of Economics and Political Science)*On Severity, the Weight of Evidence, and the Relationship Between the Two*(Abstract)**Aris Spanos**(Virginia Tech)*Revisiting the Two Cultures in Statistical Modeling and Inference as they relate to the Statistics Wars and Their Potential Casualties*(Abstract)**Uri Simonsohn**(Esade Ramon Llull University)*Mathematically Elegant Answers to Research Questions No One is Asking (meta-analysis, random effects models, and Bayes factors)*(Abstract)

**DISCUSSIONS**;

- Closing Panel:
**“Where Should Stat Activists Go From Here (Part ii)?”**: Workshop Participants: Yoav Benjamini, Alexander Bird, Mark Burgman, Daniele Fanelli, Stephan Guttinger, David Hand, Margherita Harris, Christian Hennig, Daniël Lakens, Deborah Mayo, Richard Morey, Stephen Senn, Uri Simonsohn, Aris Spanos, Jon Williamson

**********************************************************************

**DESCRIPTION:**While the field of statistics has a long history of passionate foundational controversy, the last decade has, in many ways, been the most dramatic. Misuses of statistics, biasing selection effects, and high-powered methods of big-data analysis, have helped to make it easy to find impressive-looking but spurious results that fail to replicate. As the crisis of replication has spread beyond psychology and social sciences to biomedicine, genomics, machine learning and other fields, the need for critical appraisal of proposed reforms is growing. Many are welcome (transparency about data, eschewing mechanical uses of statistics); some are quite radical. The experts do not agree on the best ways to promote trustworthy results, and these disagreements often reflect philosophical battles–old and new– about the nature of inductive-statistical inference and the roles of probability in statistical inference and modeling. Intermingled in the controversies about evidence are competing social, political, and economic values. If statistical consumers are unaware of assumptions behind rival evidence-policy reforms, they cannot scrutinize the consequences that affect them. What is at stake is a critical standpoint that we may increasingly be in danger of losing. Critically reflecting on proposed reforms and changing standards requires insights from statisticians, philosophers of science, psychologists, journal editors, economists and practitioners from across the natural and social sciences. This workshop will bring together these interdisciplinary insights–from speakers as well as attendees.

**Speakers/Panellists:**

**Yoav Benjamini**(Tel Aviv University),**Alexander Bird**(University of Cambridge),**Mark Burgman**(Imperial College London),**Daniele Fanelli**(London School of Economics and Political Science),**Roman Frigg**(London School of Economics and Political Science),**Stephan Guttinger**(University of Exeter),**David Hand**(Imperial College London),**Margherita Harris**(London School of Economics and Political Science),**Christian Hennig**(University of Bologna),**Daniël Lakens**(Eindhoven University of Technology),**Deborah M****a****yo**(Virginia Tech),**Richard Morey**(Cardiff University),**Stephen Senn**(Edinburgh, Scotland),**Uri Simonsohn**(Esade Ramon Llull University),**Aris Spanos**(Virginia Tech),**Jon Williamson**(University of Kent)

**Sponsors/Affiliations:**

- The Foundation for the Study of Experimental Reasoning, Reliability, and the Objectivity and Rationality of Science (E.R.R.O.R.S.); Centre for Philosophy of Natural and Social Science (CPNSS), London School of Economics; Virginia Tech Department of Philosophy
**Organizers**: D. Mayo, R. Frigg and M. Harris(chief logistics and contact person): Jean Miller

Logistician

**Executive Planning Committee:**Y. Benjamini, D. Hand, D. Lakens, S. Senn

## S. Senn: Lauding Lord (Guest Post)

**Stephen Senn**Consultant Statistician

Edinburgh, Scotland

# A Diet of Terms

A large university is interested in investigating the effects on the students of the diet provided in the university dining halls and any sex difference in these effects. Various types of data are gathered. In particular, the weight of each student at the time of his arrival in September and their weight the following June are recorded.(P304)

This is how Frederic Lord (1912-2000) introduced the paradox (1) that now bears his name. It is justly famous (or notorious). However, the addition of sex as a factor adds nothing to the essence of the paradox and (in my opinion) merely confuses the issue. Furthermore, studying the *effect* of diet needs some sort of control. Therefore, I shall consider the paradox in the purer form proposed by Wainer and Brown (2), which was subtly modified by Pearl and Mackenzie in *The Book of Why *(3) (See pp212-217). Continue reading

## Multiplicity, Data-Dredging, and Error Control Symposium at PSA 2022: Mayo, Thornton, Glymour, Mayo-Wilson, Berger

Some claim that no one attends Sunday morning (9am) sessions at the Philosophy of Science Association. But if you’re attending the PSA (in Pittsburgh), we hope you’ll falsify this supposition and come to hear us (Mayo, Thornton, Glymour, Mayo-Wilson, Berger) wrestle with some rival views on the trenchant problems of multiplicity, data-dredging, and error control. *Coffee and donuts to all who show up.*

*Multiplicity, Data-Dredging, and Error Control*

**November 13, 9:00 – 11:45 AM
(link to symposium on PSA website)**

**Speakers:** Continue reading

## Where should stat activists go from here? (part (i))

From what standpoint should we approach the statistics wars? That’s the question from which I launched my presentation at the Statistics Wars and Their Casualties workshop (phil-stat-wars.com). In my view, it should be, not from the standpoint of technical disputes, but from the non-technical standpoint of the skeptical consumer of statistics (see my slides here). What should we do now as regards the controversies and conundrums growing out of the statistics wars? We should not leave off the discussions of our workshop without at least sketching a future program for answering this question. We still have 2 more sessions, December 1 and 8, but I want to prepare us for the final discussions which should look beyond a single workshop. (The slides and videos from the presenters in Sessions 1 and 2 can be found here.)

I will consider three, interrelated, responsibilities and tasks that we can undertake as statistical activist citizens. In so doing I will refer to presentations from the workshop, limiting myself to session #1. (I will add more examples in part (ii) of this post.) Continue reading

## My Slides from the workshop: The statistics wars and their casualties

I will be writing some reflections on our two workshop sessions on this blog soon, but for now, here are just the slides I used on Thursday, 22 September. If you wish to ask a question of any of the speakers, use the blogpost at phil-stat-wars.com. The slides from the other speakers will also be up there on Monday.

Deborah G. Mayo’s. Slides from the workshop: *The Statistics Wars and Their Casualties*, Session 1, on September 22, 2022.

## 22-23 September final schedule for workshop: The statistics wars and their casualties ONLINE

**The Statistics Wars
**

**and Their Casualties**

**Final Schedule for September 22 & 23 (Workshop Sessions 1 & 2)** Continue reading

## 22-23 Workshop Schedule: The Statistics Wars and Their Casualties: ONLINE

You can still register: https://phil-stat-wars.com/2022/09/19/22-23-september-workshop-schedule-the-statistics-wars-and-their-casualties/ Continue reading

## Upcoming Workshop: The Statistics Wars and Their Casualties workshop

**The Statistics Wars
**

**and Their Casualties**

**22-23 September 2022
15:00-18:00 pm London Time*
**

**ONLINE**

**(London School of Economics, CPNSS)**

**To register for the workshop,
please fill out the registration form here.**

**For schedules and updated details, please see the workshop webpage: phil-stat-wars.com.**

***These will be sessions 1 & 2, there will be two more
online sessions (3 & 4) on December 1 & 8.
**

## Free access to Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Stat Wars” (CUP, 2018) for 1 more week

Thanks to CUP, the electronic version of my book, *Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars (2018)*, is available for free for one more week (through August 31) at this link: https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/statistical-inference-as-severe-testing/D9DF409EF568090F3F60407FF2B973B2 * *Blurbs of the 16 tours in the book may be found here: blurbs of the 16 tours.

## Statistical Concepts in Their Relation to Reality–E.S. Pearson

This is my third and final post marking Egon Pearson’s birthday (Aug. 11). The focus is his little-known paper: “Statistical Concepts in Their Relation to Reality” (Pearson 1955). I’ve linked to it several times over the years, but always find a new gem or two, despite its being so short. E. Pearson rejected some of the familiar tenets that have come to be associated with Neyman and Pearson (N-P) statistical tests, notably the idea that the essential justification for tests resides in a repeated applications or long-run control of rates of erroneous interpretations–what he termed the “behavioral” rationale of tests. In an unpublished letter E. Pearson wrote to Birnbaum (1974), he talks about N-P theory admitting of two interpretations: behavioral and evidential:

“I think you will pick up here and there in my own papers signs of evidentiality, and you can say now that we or I should have stated clearly the difference between the behavioral and evidential interpretations. Certainly we have suffered since in the way the people have concentrated (to an absurd extent often) on behavioral interpretations”.

(Nowadays, it might be said that some people concentrate to an absurd extent on “science-wise error rates” in their view of statistical tests as dichotomous screening devices.) Continue reading

## A. Spanos: Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics

*Continuing with posts on E.S. Pearson in marking his birthday, I reblog this guest post by Aris Spanos. *

**Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics**

by** Aris Spanos**

**Egon Pearson** (11 August 1895 – 12 June 1980), is widely known today for his contribution in recasting of Fisher’s significance testing into the * Neyman-Pearson (1933) theory of hypothesis testing*. Occasionally, he is also credited with contributions in promoting statistical methods in industry and in the history of modern statistics; see Bartlett (1981). What is rarely mentioned is Egon’s early pioneering work on:

**(i) specification**: the need to state explicitly the inductive premises of one’s inferences,

**(ii) robustness**: evaluating the ‘sensitivity’ of inferential procedures to departures from the Normality assumption, as well as

**(iii) Mis-Specification (M-S) testing**: probing for potential departures from the Normality assumption.

Arguably, modern frequentist inference began with the development of various finite sample inference procedures, initially by William Gosset (1908) [of the **Student’s t** fame] and then **Fisher** (1915, 1921, 1922a-b). These inference procedures revolved around a particular statistical model, known today as *the simple Normal model*:

X_{k} ∽ NIID(μ,σ²), k=1,2,…,n,… (1)

where ‘NIID(μ,σ²)’ stands for ‘Normal, Independent and Identically Distributed with mean μ and variance σ²’. These procedures include the ‘optimal’ estimators of μ and σ², Xbar and s², and the pivotal quantities:

(a) τ(**X**) =[√n(Xbar- μ)/s] ∽ St(n-1), (2)

(b) *v*(**X**) =[(n-1)s²/σ²] ∽ χ²(n-1), (3)

where St(n-1) and χ²(n-1) denote the Student’s t and chi-square distributions with (n-1) degrees of freedom.

The question of ‘how these inferential results might be affected when the Normality assumption is false’ was originally raised by Gosset in a letter to Fisher in 1923:

“What I should like you to do is to find a solution for some other population than a normal one.” (Lehmann, 1999)

He went on to say that he tried the rectangular (uniform) distribution but made no progress, and he was seeking Fisher’s help in tackling this ‘robustness/sensitivity’ problem. In his reply that was unfortunately lost, Fisher must have derived the sampling distribution of τ(**X**), assuming some skewed distribution (possibly log-Normal). We know this from Gosset’s reply:

“I like the result for z [τ(**X**)] in the case of that horrible curve you are so fond of. I take it that in skew curves the distribution of z is skew in the opposite direction.” (Lehmann, 1999)

After this exchange Fisher was not particularly receptive to Gosset’s requests to address the problem of working out the implications of non-Normality for the Normal-based inference procedures; t, chi-square and F tests.

In contrast, **Egon Pearson** shared Gosset’s concerns about the robustness of Normal-based inference results (a)-(b) to non-Normality, and made an attempt to address the problem in a series of papers in the late 1920s and early 1930s.

This line of research for Pearson began with a review of Fisher’s 2nd edition of the 1925 book, published in *Nature*, and dated June 8th, 1929. Pearson, after praising the book for its path breaking contributions, dared raise a mild criticism relating to (i)-(ii) above:

“There is one criticism, however, which must be made from the statistical point of view. A large number of tests are developed upon the assumption that the population sampled is of ‘normal’ form. That this is the case may be gathered from a very careful reading of the text, but the point is not sufficiently emphasised. It does not appear reasonable to lay stress on the ‘exactness’ of tests, when no means whatever are given of appreciating how rapidly they become inexact as the population samples diverge from normality.” (Pearson, 1929a)

Fisher reacted badly to this criticism and was preparing an acerbic reply to the ‘young pretender’ when Gosset jumped into the fray with his own letter in *Nature*, dated July 20th, in an obvious attempt to moderate the ensuing fight. Gosset succeeded in tempering Fisher’s reply, dated **August 17th**, forcing him to provide a less acerbic reply, but instead of addressing the ‘robustness/sensitivity’ issue, he focused primarily on Gosset’s call to address ‘the problem of what sort of modification of my tables for the analysis of variance would be required to adapt that process to non-normal distributions’. He described that as a hopeless task. This is an example of Fisher’s genious when cornered by an insightful argument. He sidestepped the issue of ‘robustness’ to departures from Normality, by broadening it – alluding to other possible departures from the ID assumption – and rendering it a hopeless task, by focusing on the call to ‘modify’ the statistical tables for all possible non-Normal distributions; there is an infinity of potential modifications!

**Egon Pearson** recognized the importance of stating explicitly the inductive premises upon which the inference results are based, and pressed ahead with exploring the robustness issue using several non-Normal distributions within the Pearson family. His probing was based primarily on *simulation*, relying on tables of pseudo-random numbers; see Pearson and Adyanthaya (1928, 1929), Pearson (1929b, 1931). His broad conclusions were that the t-test:

τ_{0}(**X**)=** |**[√n(X-bar- μ

_{0})/s]|, C

_{1}:={

**x**: τ

_{0}(

**x**) > c

_{α}}, (4)

for testing the hypotheses:

H_{0}: μ = μ_{0} vs. H_{1}: μ ≠ μ_{0}, (5)

is relatively robust to certain departures from Normality, especially when the underlying distribution is symmetric, but the ANOVA test is rather sensitive to such departures! He continued this line of research into his 80s; see Pearson and Please (1975).

Perhaps more importantly, Pearson (1930) proposed a *test for the Normality* assumption based on the skewness and kurtosis coefficients: a Mis-Specification (M-S) test. Ironically, Fisher (1929) provided the sampling distributions of the sample skewness and kurtosis statistics upon which Pearson’s test was based. Pearson continued sharpening his original M-S test for Normality, and his efforts culminated with the D’Agostino and Pearson (1973) test that is widely used today; see also Pearson et al. (1977). The crucial importance of testing Normality stems from the fact that it renders the ‘robustness/sensitivity’ problem manageable. The test results can be used to narrow down the possible departures one needs to worry about. They can also be used to suggest ways to respecify the original model.

After Pearson’s early publications on the ‘robustness/sensitivity’ problem Gosset realized that *simulation* alone was not effective enough to address the question of robustness, and called upon Fisher, who initially rejected Gosset’s call by saying ‘it was none of his business’, to derive analytically the implications of non-Normality using different distributions:

“How much does it [non-Normality] matter? And in fact that is your business: none of the rest of us have the slightest chance of solving the problem: we can play about with samples [i.e. perform simulation studies], I am not belittling E. S. Pearson’s work, but it is up to you to get us a proper solution.” (Lehmann, 1999).

In this passage one can discern the high esteem with which Gosset held Fisher for his technical ability. Fisher’s reply was rather blunt:

“I do not think what you are doing with nonnormal distributions is at all my business, and I doubt if it is the right approach. … Where I differ from you, I suppose, is in regarding normality as only a part of the difficulty of getting data; viewed in this collection of difficulties I think you will see that it is one of the least important.”

It’s clear from this that Fisher understood the problem of how to handle departures from Normality more broadly than his contemporaries. His answer alludes to two issues that were not well understood at the time:

(a) departures from the other two probabilistic assumptions (IID) have much more serious consequences for Normal-based inference than Normality, and

(b) deriving the consequences of particular forms of non-Normality on the reliability of Normal-based inference, and proclaiming a procedure enjoys a certain level of ‘generic’ robustness, does *not* provide a complete answer to the problem of dealing with departures from the inductive premises.

In relation to (a) it is important to note that the role of ‘randomness’, as it relates to the IID assumptions, was not well understood until the 1940s, when the notion of non-IID was framed in terms of explicit forms of heterogeneity and dependence pertaining to stochastic processes. Hence, the problem of assessing departures from IID was largely ignored at the time, focusing almost exclusively on departures from Normality. Indeed, the early literature on nonparametric inference retained the IID assumptions and focused on inference procedures that replace the Normality assumption with indirect distributional assumptions pertaining to the ‘true’ but unknown *f*(x), like the existence of certain moments, its symmetry, smoothness, continuity and/or differentiability, unimodality, etc. ; see Lehmann (1975). It is interesting to note that Egon Pearson did not consider the question of testing the IID assumptions until his 1963 paper.

In relation to (b), when one poses the question ‘how robust to non-Normality is the reliability of inference based on a t-test?’ one ignores the fact that the t-test might no longer be the ‘optimal’ test under a non-Normal distribution. This is because the sampling distribution of the test statistic and the associated type I and II error probabilities depend crucially on the validity of the statistical model assumptions. When any of these assumptions are invalid, the relevant error probabilities are no longer the ones derived under the original model assumptions, and the optimality of the original test is called into question. For instance, assuming that the ‘true’ distribution is uniform (Gosset’s rectangular):

X_{k }∽ U(a-μ,a+μ), k=1,2,…,n,… (6)

where *f*(x;a,μ)=(1/(2μ)), (a-μ) ≤ x ≤ (a+μ), μ > 0,

how does one assess the robustness of the t-test? One might invoke its generic robustness to symmetric non-Normal distributions and proceed as if the t-test is ‘fine’ for testing the hypotheses (5). A more well-grounded answer will be to assess the discrepancy between the nominal (assumed) error probabilities of the t-test based on (1) and the actual ones based on (6). If the latter approximate the former ‘closely enough’, one can justify the generic robustness. These answers, however, raise the broader question of what are the relevant error probabilities? After all, the optimal test for the hypotheses (5) in the context of (6), is no longer the t-test, but the test defined by:

w(**X**)=|{(n-1)([X_{[1] }+X_{[n]}]-μ_{0})}/{[X_{[1]}-X_{[n]}]}|∽F(2,2(n-1)), (7)

with a rejection region C_{1}:={**x**: w(**x**) > c_{α}}, where (X_{[1]}, X_{[n]}) denote the smallest and the largest element in the ordered sample (X_{[1]}, X_{[2]},…, X_{[n]}), and F(2,2(n-1)) the F distribution with 2 and 2(n-1) degrees of freedom; see Neyman and Pearson (1928). One can argue that the relevant comparison error probabilities are no longer the ones associated with the t-test ‘corrected’ to account for the assumed departure, but those associated with the test in (7). For instance, let the t-test have nominal and actual significance level, .05 and .045, and power at μ_{1}=μ_{0}+1, of .4 and .37, respectively. The conventional wisdom will call the t-test robust, but is it reliable (effective) when compared with the test in (7) whose significance level and power (at μ_{1}) are say, .03 and .9, respectively?

A strong case can be made that a more complete approach to the statistical misspecification problem is:

(i) to probe thoroughly for any departures from all the model assumptions using trenchant M-S tests, and if any departures are detected,

(ii) proceed to respecify the statistical model by choosing a more appropriate model with a view to account for the statistical information that the original model did not.

Admittedly, this is a more demanding way to deal with departures from the underlying assumptions, but it addresses the concerns of Gosset, Egon Pearson, Neyman and Fisher much more effectively than the invocation of vague robustness claims; see Spanos (2010).

**References**

Bartlett, M. S. (1981) “Egon Sharpe Pearson, 11 August 1895-12 June 1980,” *Biographical Memoirs of Fellows of the Royal Society*, 27: 425-443.

D’Agostino, R. and E. S. Pearson (1973) “Tests for Departure from Normality. Empirical Results for the Distributions of b₂ and √(b₁),” *Biometrika*, 60: 613-622.

Fisher, R. A. (1915) “Frequency distribution of the values of the correlation coefficient in samples from an indefinitely large population,” *Biometrika*, 10: 507-521.

Fisher, R. A. (1921) “On the “probable error” of a coefficient of correlation deduced from a small sample,” *Metron*, 1: 3-32.

Fisher, R. A. (1922a) “On the mathematical foundations of theoretical statistics,” *Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society* A, 222, 309-368.

Fisher, R. A. (1922b) “The goodness of fit of regression formulae, and the distribution of regression coefficients,” *Journal of the Royal Statistical Society*, 85: 597-612.

Fisher, R. A. (1925) *Statistical Methods for Research Workers*, Oliver and Boyd, Edinburgh.

Fisher, R. A. (1929), “Moments and Product Moments of Sampling Distributions,” *Proceedings of the London Mathematical Society*, Series 2, 30: 199-238.

Neyman, J. and E. S. Pearson (1928) “On the use and interpretation of certain test criteria for purposes of statistical inference: Part I,” *Biometrika*, 20A: 175-240.

Neyman, J. and E. S. Pearson (1933) “On the problem of the most efficient tests of statistical hypotheses”, *Philosophical Transanctions of the Royal Society*, A, 231: 289-337.

Lehmann, E. L. (1975) *Nonparametrics: statistical methods based on ranks*, Holden-Day, San Francisco.

Lehmann, E. L. (1999) “‘Student’ and Small-Sample Theory,” *Statistical Science*, 14: 418-426.

Pearson, E. S. (1929a) “Review of ‘Statistical Methods for Research Workers,’ 1928, by Dr. R. A. Fisher”, *Nature*, June 8th, pp. 866-7.

Pearson, E. S. (1929b) “Some notes on sampling tests with two variables,” *Biometrika*, 21: 337-60.

Pearson, E. S. (1930) “A further development of tests for normality,” *Biometrika*, 22: 239-49.

Pearson, E. S. (1931) “The analysis of variance in cases of non-normal variation,” *Biometrika*, 23: 114-33.

Pearson, E. S. (1963) “Comparison of tests for randomness of points on a line,” *Biometrika*, 50: 315-25.

Pearson, E. S. and N. K. Adyanthaya (1928) “The distribution of frequency constants in small samples from symmetrical populations,” *Biometrika*, 20: 356-60.

Pearson, E. S. and N. K. Adyanthaya (1929) “The distribution of frequency constants in small samples from non-normal symmetrical and skew populations,” *Biometrika*, 21: 259-86.

Pearson, E. S. and N. W. Please (1975) “Relations between the shape of the population distribution and the robustness of four simple test statistics,” *Biometrika*, 62: 223-241.

Pearson, E. S., R. B. D’Agostino and K. O. Bowman (1977) “Tests for departure from normality: comparisons of powers,” *Biometrika*, 64: 231-246.

Spanos, A. (2010) “Akaike-type Criteria and the Reliability of Inference: Model Selection vs. Statistical Model Specification,” *Journal of Econometrics*, 158: 204-220.

Student (1908), “The Probable Error of the Mean,” *Biometrika*, 6: 1-25.

## Behavioral vs Evidential Interpretations of N-P tests: E.S. Pearson’s Statistical Philosophy: Belated Birthday Wish

This is a belated birthday post for E.S. Pearson (11 August 1895-12 June, 1980)–one of my statistical heroes. It’s basically a post from 2012 which concerns an issue of interpretation (long-run performance vs probativeness) that’s badly confused these days. Yes, I know I’ve been neglecting this blog as of late, because I’m busy planning our workshop: The Statistics Wars and Their Casualties (22-23 September, online). See phil-stat-wars.com. I will reblog some favorite Pearson posts in the next few days.

**HAPPY BELATED BIRTHDAY EGON!**

Are methods based on error probabilities of use mainly to supply procedures which will not err too frequently in some long run? (*performance*). Or is it the other way round: that the control of long run error properties are of crucial importance for probing the causes of the data at hand? (*probativeness*). I say no to the former and yes to the latter. This, I think, was also the view of Egon Sharpe (E.S.) Pearson*Cases of Type A and Type B*

“How far then, can one go in giving precision to a philosophy of statistical inference?” (Pearson 1947, 172)

Pearson considers the rationale that might be given to N-P tests in two types of cases, A and B:

“(A) At one extreme we have the case where repeated decisions must be made on results obtained from some routine procedure…

(B) At the other is the situation where statistical tools are applied to an isolated investigation of considerable importance…?” (ibid., 170)

In cases of type A, long-run results are clearly of interest, while in cases of type B, repetition is impossible and may be irrelevant:

“In other and, no doubt, more numerous cases there is no repetition of the same type of trial or experiment, but all the same we can and many of us do use the same test rules to guide our decision, following the analysis of an isolated set of numerical data. Why do we do this? What are the springs of decision? Is it because the formulation of the case in terms of hypothetical repetition helps to that clarity of view needed for sound judgment?

Or is it because we are content that the application of a rule, now in this investigation, now in that, should result in a long-run frequency of errors in judgment which we control at a low figure?” (Ibid., 173)

Although Pearson leaves this tantalizing question unanswered, claiming, “On this I should not care to dogmatize”, in studying how Pearson treats cases of type B, it is evident that in his view, “the formulation of the case in terms of hypothetical repetition helps to that clarity of view needed for sound judgment” in learning about the particular case at hand.

“Whereas when tackling problem A it is easy to convince the practical man of the value of a probability construct related to frequency of occurrence, in problem B the argument that ‘if we were to repeatedly do so and so, such and such result would follow in the long run’ is at once met by the commonsense answer that we never should carry out a precisely similar trial again.

Nevertheless, it is clear that the scientist with a knowledge of statistical method behind him can make his contribution to a round-table discussion…” (Ibid., 171).

Pearson gives the following example of a case of type B (from his wartime work), where he claims no repetition is intended:

“Example of type B.Two types of heavy armour-piercing naval shell of the same caliber are under consideration; they may be of different design or made by different firms…. Twelve shells of one kind and eight of the other have been fired; two of the former and five of the latter failed to perforate the plate….”(Pearson 1947, 171)“Starting from the basis that, individual shells will never be identical in armour-piercing qualities, however good the control of production, he has to consider how much of the difference between (i) two failures out of twelve and (ii) five failures out of eight is likely to be due to this inevitable variability. ..”(Ibid.,)

*We’re interested in considering what other outcomes could have occurred, and how readily, in order to learn what variability alone is capable of producing.* As a noteworthy aside, Pearson shows that treating the observed difference (between the two proportions) in one way yields an observed significance level of 0.052; treating it differently (along Barnard’s lines), he gets 0.025 as the (upper) significance level. But in scientific cases, Pearson insists, the difference in error probabilities makes no real difference to substantive judgments in interpreting the results. Only in an unthinking, automatic, routine use of tests would it matter:

“Were the action taken to be decided automatically by the side of the 5% level on which the observation point fell, it is clear that the method of analysis used would here be of vital importance. But no responsible statistician, faced with an investigation of this character, would follow an automatic probability rule.” (ibid., 192)

The two analyses correspond to the tests effectively asking different questions, and if we recognize this, says Pearson, different meanings may be appropriately attached.

*Three Steps in the Original Construction of Tests*

After setting up the test (or null) hypothesis, and the alternative hypotheses against which “we wish the test to have maximum discriminating power” (Pearson 1947, 173), Pearson defines three steps in specifying tests:

“Step 1. We must specify the experimental probability set, the set of results which could follow on repeated application of the random process used in the collection of the data…

Step 2. We then divide this set [of possible results] by a system of ordered boundaries…such that as we pass across one boundary and proceed to the next, we come to a class of results which makes us more and more inclined on the Information available, to reject the hypothesis tested in favour of alternatives which differ from it by increasing amounts”.

“Step 3. We then, if possible[i], associate with each contour level the chance that, if [the null] is true, a result will occur in random sampling lying beyond that level” (ibid.).

Pearson warns that:

“Although the mathematical procedure may put Step 3 before 2, we cannot put this into operation before we have decided, under Step 2, on the guiding principle to be used in choosing the contour system. That is why I have numbered the steps in this order.” (Ibid. 173).

Strict behavioristic formulations jump from step 1 to step 3, after which one may calculate how the test has in effect accomplished step 2. However, the resulting test, while having adequate error probabilities, may have an inadequate distance measure and may even be irrelevant to the hypothesis of interest. This is one reason critics can construct howlers that appear to be licensed by N-P methods, and which make their way from time to time into this blog.

So step 3 remains crucial, even for cases of type [B]. There are two reasons: pre-data planning—that’s familiar enough—but secondly, for post-data scrutiny. Post data, step 3 enables determining the capability of the test to have detected various discrepancies, departures, and errors, on which a critical scrutiny of the inferences are based. More specifically, the error probabilities are used to determine how well/poorly corroborated, or how severely tested, various claims are, post-data.

If we can readily bring about statistically significantly higher rates of success with the first type of armour-piercing naval shell than with the second (in the above example), we have evidence the first is superior. Or, as Pearson modestly puts it: the results “raise considerable doubts as to whether the performance of the [second] type of shell was as good as that of the [first]….” (Ibid., 192)[ii]

Still, while error rates of procedures may be used to determine how severely claims have/have not passed they do not automatically do so—hence, again, opening the door to potential howlers that neither Egon nor Jerzy for that matter would have countenanced.

*Neyman Was the More Behavioristic of the Two*

Pearson was (rightly) considered to have rejected the more behaviorist leanings of Neyman.

Here’s a snippet from an unpublished letter he wrote to Birnbaum (1974) about the idea that the N-P theory admits of two interpretations: behavioral and evidential:

“I think you will pick up here and there in my own papers signs of evidentiality, and you can say now that we or I should have stated clearly the difference between the behavioral and evidential interpretations. Certainly we have suffered since in the way the people have concentrated (to an absurd extent often) on behavioral interpretations”.

In Pearson’s (1955) response to Fisher (blogged here):

“To dispel the picture of the Russian technological bogey, I might recall how certain early ideas came into my head as I sat on a gate overlooking an experimental blackcurrant plot….!” (Pearson 1955, 204)

“To the best of my ability I was searching for a way of expressing in mathematical terms what appeared to me to be the requirements of the scientist in applying statistical tests to his data. After contact was made with Neyman in 1926, the development of a joint mathematical theory proceeded much more surely; it was not till after the main lines of this theory had taken shape with its necessary formalization in terms of critical regions, the class of admissible hypotheses, the two sources of error, the power function, etc., that the fact that there was a remarkable parallelism of ideas in the field of acceptance sampling became apparent. Abraham Wald’s contributions to decision theory of ten to fifteen years later were perhaps strongly influenced by acceptance sampling problems, but that is another story.“ (ibid., 204-5).

“It may be readily agreed that in the first Neyman and Pearson paper of 1928, more space might have been given to discussing how the scientific worker’s attitude of mind could be related to the formal structure of the mathematical probability theory….Nevertheless it should be clear from the first paragraph of this paper that we were not speaking of the final acceptance or rejection of a scientific hypothesis on the basis of statistical analysis…. Indeed, from the start we shared Professor Fisher’s view that in scientific enquiry, a statistical test is ‘a means of learning”… (Ibid., 206)

“Professor Fisher’s final criticism concerns the use of the term ‘inductive behavior’; this is Professor Neyman’s field rather than mine.” (Ibid., 207)

These points on Pearson are discussed in more depth in my book* Statistical Inference as Severe Testing (SIST): How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars* (CUP 2018). You can read and download the entire book for free during the month of August 2022 at the following link:

** **

**References:**

Pearson, E. S. (1947), “The choice of Statistical Tests illustrated on the Interpretation of Data Classed in a 2×2 Table,” *Biometrika* 34(1/2): 139-167.

Pearson, E. S. (1955), “Statistical Concepts and Their Relationship to Reality” *Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, (Methodological)*, 17(2): 204-207.

Neyman, J. and Pearson, E. S. (1928), “On the Use and Interpretation of Certain Test Criteria for Purposes of Statistical Inference, Part I.” *Biometrika* 20(A): 175-240.

## Read It Free: “Stat Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Stat Wars” during August

CUP will make the electronic version of my book, *Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars (2018)*, available to access for free from August 1-31 at this link: https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/statistical-inference-as-severe-testing/D9DF409EF568090F3F60407FF2B973B2 However, they will confirm the link closer to August, so check this blog on Aug 1 for any update, if you’re interested. (July 31, the link works!) * (August 5, the link is working. Let me know if you have problems getting in.) *Blurbs of the 16 tours in the book may be found here: blurbs of the 16 tours.

Here’s a CUP interview from when the book first came out.

## The Statistics Wars and Their Casualties Workshop-Now Online

**The Statistics Wars
**

**and Their Casualties**

**22-23 September 2022
15:00-18:00 pm London Time*
**

**ONLINE **

**To register for the workshop, please fill out the registration form here.**

***These will be sessions 1 & 2, there will be two more
The future online sessions (3 & 4) at 15:00-18:00 pm London Time on December 1 & 8.**

**Yoav Benjamini **(Tel Aviv University), **Alexander Bird** (University of Cambridge), **Mark Burgman** (Imperial College London), **Daniele Fanelli** (London School of Economics and Political Science), **Roman Frigg **(London School of Economics and Political Science), **
Stephan Guttinger** (University of Exeter),

**David Hand**(Imperial College London),

**Margherita Harris**(London School of Economics and Political Science),

**Christian Hennig**(University of Bologna),

**Daniël Lakens**(Eindhoven University of Technology),

**Deborah M**

**a**

**yo**(Virginia Tech),

**Richard Morey**(Cardiff University),

**Stephen Senn**(Edinburgh, Scotland),

**Jon Williamson**(University of Kent) Continue reading

## Happy Birthday Sir David R. Cox

HAPPY BIRTHDAY SIR DAVID COX!Today is David Cox’s birthday, he would have been 98 years old today. Below is a remembrance I contributed toSignificancewhen he died, with a link to others in that same issue.

“In celebrating Cox’s immense contributions, we should recognise how much there is yet to learn from him”Continue reading

## 10 years after the July 4 statistical discovery of the the Higgs & the value of negative results

Today marks a decade since the discovery on July 4, 2012 of evidence for a Higgs particle based on a “5 sigma observed effect”. CERN celebrated with a scientific symposium (webcast here). The observed effect refers to the number of excess events of a given type that are “observed” in comparison to the number that would be expected from background alone—which they can simulate in particle detectors. Because the 5-sigma standard refers to a benchmark from frequentist significance testing, the discovery was immediately imbued with controversies that, at bottom, concerned statistical philosophy. Continue reading

## D. Lakens responds to confidence interval crusading journal editors

In what began as a guest commentary on my 2021 editorial in *Conservation Biology,* Daniël Lakens recently published a response to a recommendation against using null hypothesis significance tests by journal editors from the International Society of Physiotherapy Journal. Here are some excerpts from his full article, replies (‘response to Lakens‘), links and a few comments of my own. Continue reading

## Too little, too late? The “Don’t say significance…” editorial gets a disclaimer (ii)

Someone sent me an email the other day telling me that a disclaimer had been added to the editorial written by the ASA Executive Director and 2 co-authors (Wasserstein et al., 2019) (“Moving to a world beyond ‘p < 0.05′”). It reads:

The editorial was written by the three editors acting as individuals and reflects their scientific views not an an endorsed position of the American Statistical Association.