**PHIL 6014 (crn: 20919): Spring 2023 **

*Philosophy of Inductive-Statistical Inference *** (This is an IN-PERSON class*)**Wed 4:00-6:30 pm, McBryde 22

*There may be opportunities for zooming half-way through the semester.

* Syllabus: First Installment * (PDF)

D. Mayo (2018) * Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars *(SIST

*)*CUP, 2018:

*SIST*(electronic and paper provided to those taking the class; proofs are at errorstatistics.com, see below).

Articles from the Captain’s Bibliography (links to new articles will be provided). Other useful information can be found on the SIST Abstracts & Keywords and this post with SIST Excerpts & Mementos)

Date | Themes/readings |

1. 1/18 | Introduction to the Course: How to tell what’s true about statistical inference ( 1/18/23 SLIDES here)Reading:Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars (SIST): Preface, Excursion 1 Tour I 1.1-1.3, 9-29 Souvenir A; SIST Abstracts & Keywords for all excursions and toursMISC: |

2. 1/25 Q #2 | Error Probing Tools vs Comparative Evidence: Likelihood & ProbabilityWhat counts as cheating? Intro to Logic: arguments validity & soundness ( 1/25/23 SLIDES here) SIST: Excursion 1 Tour II 1.4-1.5, 30-55Reading:Session #2 Questions: (PDF) NOTES on Excursion 1, SIST: Souvenirs B, C & D, MISC:Logic Primer (PDF) |

3. 2/1Q #3UPDATED | Induction and Confirmation: PhilStat & Formal EpistemologyThe Traditional Problem of Induction Is Probability a Good Measure of Confirmation? Tacking Paradox ( 2/1/23 SLIDES here): SIST: Excursion 2, Tour I: 2.1-2.2, 59-74 ReadingHacking “The Basic Rules of Probability” Hand Out (PDF) UPDATED: Session #3 Questions: (PDF) Excursion 2 Tour I Blurb & notesMISC: |

4. 2/8 & 5. 2/15 Assign 1 2/15 | Falsification, Science vs Pseudoscience, InductionStatistical Crises of Replication in Psychology & other sciencesPopper, severity and novelty, array of problems and models Fallacies of rejection, Duhem’s problem; solving induction now Popper, Ch 1 from Reading for 2/8: Conjectures and Refutations (PDF), Popper TestReadingfor 2/15: SIST: Excursion 2, Tour II: 2.3-2.7, pages TBA Optional for 2/15: Gelman & Loken (2014) ASSIGNMENT 1 (due 2/15) (PDF) SIST Souvenirs (E), (F), (G),(H) MISC:Excursion 2 Tour II Blurb & notes |

Fisher Birthday: February 17: Celebration of N-F wars | |

6. 2/22 & 7. 3/1 | Ingenious and Severe Tests: Fisher, Neyman-Pearson, Cox: Concepts of Tests SIST: Excursion 3 Tour I: 3.1-3.3, 119-163 (trade-offs 328-330)ReadingThe Triad: Fisher (1955), Pearson (1955); Neyman (1956) The 1919 eclipse tests; Fisherian and N-P Tests; Frequentist principle of evidence: FEV Apps for statistical testing Excursion 3 Tour I Blurb & notesMISC: |

*SPRING BREAK Statistical Exercises While Sunning (March 4-12)***The following is very tentative, and will depend on student interests**.

8. 3/15 Assign 2 | Confidence & Fiducial Intervals and Deeper Concepts: Higgs Discovery |

9. 3/22 | Objectivity in Science: Objectivity in Error Statistics & Bayesian Philosophies |

10. 3/29 Short essay | Bayes factors and Bayes/Fisher Disagreement, Jeffreys-Lindley Paradox |

11. 4/5 | Biasing Selection Effects, P-Hacking, Data Dredging etc. |

12. 4/12 Assign 3 | Negative Results: Power vs Severity |

13. 4/19 | Should Statistical Significance Tests be Abandoned, Retired, or Replaced? Other: TBA |

14. 4/26 | Severity, Sensitivity, Safety: PhilStat and Classical Epistemology |

15. 5/3 | Current Reforms and Stat Activism: Practicing Our Skills |

| Final Paper |