Monthly Archives: July 2019

Summer Seminar in PhilStat Participants and Special Invited Speakers

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Participants in the 2019 Summer Seminar in Philosophy of Statistics

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The NEJM Issues New Guidelines on Statistical Reporting: Is the ASA P-Value Project Backfiring? (i)

The New England Journal of Medicine NEJM announced new guidelines for authors for statistical reporting  yesterday*. The ASA describes the change as “in response to the ASA Statement on P-values and Statistical Significance and subsequent The American Statistician special issue on statistical inference” (ASA I and II, in my abbreviation). If so, it seems to have backfired. I don’t know all the differences in the new guidelines, but those explicitly noted appear to me to move in the reverse direction from where the ASA I and II guidelines were heading.

The most notable point is that the NEJM highlights the need for error control, especially for constraining the Type I error probability, and pays a lot of attention to adjusting P-values for multiple testing and post hoc subgroups. ASA I included an important principle (#4) that P-values are altered and may be invalidated by multiple testing, but they do not call for adjustments for multiplicity, nor do I find a discussion of Type I or II error probabilities in the ASA documents. NEJM gives strict requirements for controlling family-wise error rate or false discovery rates (understood as the Benjamini and Hochberg frequentist adjustments). Continue reading

Categories: ASA Guide to P-values | 22 Comments

B. Haig: The ASA’s 2019 update on P-values and significance (ASA II)(Guest Post)

Brian Haig, Professor Emeritus
Department of Psychology
University of Canterbury
Christchurch, New Zealand

The American Statistical Association’s (ASA) recent effort to advise the statistical and scientific communities on how they should think about statistics in research is ambitious in scope. It is concerned with an initial attempt to depict what empirical research might look like in “a world beyond p<0.05” (The American Statistician, 2019, 73, S1,1-401). Quite surprisingly, the main recommendation of the lead editorial article in the Special Issue of The American Statistician devoted to this topic (Wasserstein, Schirm, & Lazar, 2019; hereafter, ASA II) is that “it is time to stop using the term ‘statistically significant’ entirely”. (p.2) ASA II acknowledges the controversial nature of this directive and anticipates that it will be subject to critical examination. Indeed, in a recent post, Deborah Mayo began her evaluation of ASA II by making constructive amendments to three recommendations that appear early in the document (‘Error Statistics Philosophy’, June 17, 2019). These amendments have received numerous endorsements, and I record mine here. In this short commentary, I briefly state a number of general reservations that I have about ASA II. Continue reading

Categories: ASA Guide to P-values, Brian Haig | Tags: | 31 Comments

SIST: All Excerpts and Mementos: May 2018-July 2019 (updated)

Introduction & Overview

The Meaning of My Title: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars* 05/19/18

Blurbs of 16 Tours: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars (SIST) 03/05/19

 

Excursion 1

EXCERPTS

Tour I Ex1 TI (full proofs)

Excursion 1 Tour I: Beyond Probabilism and Performance: Severity Requirement (1.1) 09/08/18

Excursion 1 Tour I (2nd stop): Probabilism, Performance, and Probativeness (1.2) 09/11/18

Excursion 1 Tour I (3rd stop): The Current State of Play in Statistical Foundations: A View From a Hot-Air Balloon (1.3) 09/15/18

Tour II

Excursion 1 Tour II: Error Probing Tools versus Logics of Evidence-Excerpt 04/04/19

Souvenir C: A Severe Tester’s Translation Guide (Excursion 1 Tour II) 11/08/18

MEMENTOS

Tour Guide Mementos (Excursion 1 Tour II of How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars) 10/29/18

 

Excursion 2

EXCERPTS

Tour I

Excursion 2: Taboos of Induction and Falsification: Tour I (first stop) 09/29/18

“It should never be true, though it is still often said, that the conclusions are no more accurate than the data on which they are based” (Keepsake by Fisher, 2.1) 10/05/18

Tour II

Excursion 2 Tour II (3rd stop): Falsification, Pseudoscience, Induction (2.3) 10/10/18

MEMENTOS

Tour Guide Mementos and Quiz 2.1 (Excursion 2 Tour I Induction and Confirmation) 11/14/18

Mementos for Excursion 2 Tour II Falsification, Pseudoscience, Induction 11/17/18

 

Excursion 3

EXCERPTS

Tour I

Where are Fisher, Neyman, Pearson in 1919? Opening of Excursion 3 11/30/18

Neyman-Pearson Tests: An Episode in Anglo-Polish Collaboration: Excerpt from Excursion 3 (3.2) 12/01/18

First Look at N-P Methods as Severe Tests: Water plant accident [Exhibit (i) from Excursion 3] 12/04/18

Tour II

It’s the Methods, Stupid: Excerpt from Excursion 3 Tour II (Mayo 2018, CUP) 12/11/18

60 Years of Cox’s (1958) Chestnut: Excerpt from Excursion 3 tour II. 12/29/18

Tour III

Capability and Severity: Deeper Concepts: Excerpts From Excursion 3 Tour III 12/20/18

MEMENTOS

Memento & Quiz (on SEV): Excursion 3, Tour I 12/08/18

Mementos for “It’s the Methods, Stupid!” Excursion 3 Tour II (3.4-3.6) 12/13/18

Tour Guide Mementos From Excursion 3 Tour III: Capability and Severity: Deeper Concepts 12/26/18

 

Excursion 4

EXCERPTS

Tour I

Excerpt from Excursion 4 Tour I: The Myth of “The Myth of Objectivity” (Mayo 2018, CUP) 12/26/18

Tour II

Excerpt from Excursion 4 Tour II: 4.4 “Do P-Values Exaggerate the Evidence?” 01/10/19
(Full Excursion 4 Tour II)

Tour III
(Full proofs of Excursion 4 Tour III)

Tour IV

Excerpt from Excursion 4 Tour IV: More Auditing: Objectivity and Model Checking 01/27/19

MEMENTOS

Mementos from Excursion 4: Blurbs of Tours I-IV 01/13/19

 

Excursion 5

Tour I

(Full) Excerpt: Excursion 5 Tour I — Power: Pre-data and Post-data (from “SIST: How to Get Beyond the Stat Wars”) 04/27/19

Tour II

(Full) Excerpt. Excursion 5 Tour II: How Not to Corrupt Power (Power Taboos, Retro Power, and Shpower) 06/07/19

Tour III

Deconstructing the Fisher-Neyman conflict wearing Fiducial glasses + Excerpt 5.8 from SIST 02/23/19

 

Excursion 6

Tour I Ex6 TI What Ever Happened to Bayesian Foundations?

Tour II

Excerpts: Souvenir Z: Understanding Tribal Warfare +  6.7 Farewell Keepsake from SIST + List of Souvenirs 05/04/19

 

*Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars (Mayo, CUP 2018).

Categories: SIST, Statistical Inference as Severe Testing | 1 Comment

The Statistics Wars: Errors and Casualties

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Had I been scheduled to speak later at the 12th MuST Conference & 3rd Workshop “Perspectives on Scientific Error” in Munich, rather than on day 1, I could have (constructively) illustrated some of the errors and casualties by reference to a few of the conference papers that discussed significance tests. (Most gave illuminating discussions of such topics as replication research, the biases that discredit meta-analysis, statistics in the law, formal epistemology [i]). My slides follow my abstract. Continue reading

Categories: slides, stat wars and their casualties | Tags: | Leave a comment

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