Monthly Archives: October 2020

S. Senn: Testing Times (Guest post)

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Stephen Senn
Consultant Statistician
Edinburgh, Scotland

Testing Times

Screening for attention

There has been much comment on Twitter and other social media about testing for coronavirus and the relationship between a test being positive and the person tested having been infected. Some primitive form of Bayesian reasoning is often used  to justify concern that an apparent positive may actually be falsely so, with specificity and sensitivity taking the roles of likelihoods and prevalence that of a prior distribution. This way of looking at testing dates back at least to a paper of 1959 by Ledley and Lusted[1]. However, as others[2, 3] have pointed out, there is a trap for the unwary in this, in that it is implicitly assumed that specificity and sensitivity are constant values unaffected by prevalence and it is far from obvious that this should be the case. Continue reading

Categories: S. Senn, significance tests, Testing Assumptions | 14 Comments

Souvenir From the NISS Stat Debate for Users of Bayes Factors (& P-Values)

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What would I say is the most important takeaway from last week’s NISS “statistics debate” if you’re using (or contemplating using) Bayes factors (BFs)–of the sort Jim Berger recommends–as replacements for P-values? It is that J. Berger only regards the BFs as appropriate when there’s grounds for a high concentration (or spike) of probability on a sharp null hypothesis,            e.g.,H0: θ = θ0.

Thus, it is crucial to distinguish between precise hypotheses that are just stated for convenience and have no special prior believability, and precise hypotheses which do correspond to a concentration of prior belief. (J. Berger and Delampady 1987, p. 330).

Continue reading

Categories: bayes factors, Berger, P-values, S. Senn | 4 Comments

My Responses (at the P-value debate)

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How did I respond to those 7 burning questions at last week’s (“P-Value”) Statistics Debate? Here’s a fairly close transcript of my (a) general answer, and (b) final remark, for each question–without the in-between responses to Jim and David. The exception is question 5 on Bayes factors, which naturally included Jim in my general answer. 

The questions with the most important consequences, I think, are questions 3 and 5. I’ll explain why I say this in the comments. Please share your thoughts. Continue reading

Categories: bayes factors, P-values, Statistics, statistics debate NISS | 1 Comment

The P-Values Debate

 

 

National Institute of Statistical Sciences (NISS): The Statistics Debate (Video)

Categories: J. Berger, P-values, statistics debate | 14 Comments

The Statistics Debate! (NISS DEBATE, October 15, Noon – 2 pm ET)

October 15, Noon – 2 pm ET (Website)

Where do YOU stand?

Given the issues surrounding the misuses and abuse of p-values, do you think p-values should be used? Continue reading

Categories: Announcement, J. Berger, P-values, Philosophy of Statistics, reproducibility, statistical significance tests, Statistics | Tags: | 9 Comments

CALL FOR PAPERS (Synthese) Recent Issues in Philosophy of Statistics: Evidence, Testing, and Applications

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Call for Papers: Topical Collection in Synthese

Title: Recent Issues in Philosophy of Statistics: Evidence, Testing, and Applications

The deadline for submissions is 1 November, 2020 1 December 2020

Description: Continue reading

Categories: Announcement, CFP, Synthese | Leave a comment

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