# Monthly Archives: September 2020

## G.A. Barnard’s 105th Birthday: The Bayesian “catch-all” factor: probability vs likelihood

G. A. Barnard: 23 Sept 1915-30 July, 2002

Yesterday was statistician George Barnard’s 105th birthday. To acknowledge it, I reblog an exchange between Barnard, Savage (and others) on likelihood vs probability. The exchange is from pp 79-84 (of what I call) “The Savage Forum” (Savage, 1962).[i] A portion appears on p. 420 of my Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars (2018, CUP). Six other posts on Barnard are linked below, including 2 guest posts, (Senn, Spanos); a play (pertaining to our first meeting), and a letter Barnard wrote to me in 1999.  Continue reading

Categories: Barnard, phil/history of stat, Statistics

## Live Exhibit: Bayes Factors & Those 6 ASA P-value Principles

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Live Exhibit: So what happens if you replace “p-values” with “Bayes Factors” in the 6 principles from the 2016 American Statistical Association (ASA) Statement on P-values? (Remove “or statistical significance” in question 5.)

Does the one positive assertion hold? Are the 5 “don’ts” true? Continue reading

Categories: ASA Guide to P-values, bayes factors

## All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 9 years on

Dear Reader: I began this blog 9 years ago (Sept. 3, 2011)! A double celebration is taking place at the Elbar Room tonight (a smaller one was held earlier in the week), both for the blog and the 2 year anniversary of the physical appearance of my book: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars [SIST] (CUP, 2018). A special rush edition made an appearance on Sept 3, 2018 in time for the RSS meeting in Cardiff. If you’re in the neighborhood, stop by for some Elba Grease.

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Many of the discussions in the book were importantly influenced (corrected and improved) by reader’s comments on the blog over the years. I posted several excerpts and mementos from SIST here. I thank readers for their input. Readers should look up the topics in SIST on this blog to check out the comments, and see how ideas were developed, corrected and turned into “excursions” in SIST. Continue reading

Categories: blog contents, Metablog

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## 11:20 – 13:20

### Keynote 4 – Significance Tests: Rethinking the Controversy Assembly Room

Speakers:
Sir David Cox, Nuffield College, Oxford
Deborah Mayo, Virginia Tech
Richard Morey, Cardiff University
Aris Spanos, Virginia Tech

Intermingled in today’s statistical controversies are some long-standing, but unresolved, disagreements on the nature and principles of statistical methods and the roles for probability in statistical inference and modelling. In reaction to the so-called “replication crisis” in the sciences, some reformers suggest significance tests as a major culprit. To understand the ramifications of the proposed reforms, there is a pressing need for a deeper understanding of the source of the problems in the sciences and a balanced critique of the alternative methods being proposed to supplant significance tests. In this session speakers offer perspectives on significance tests from statistical science, econometrics, experimental psychology and philosophy of science. There will be also be panel discussion.

5 Sept. 2018 (taken by A.Spanos)

Categories: Error Statistics | Tags:

## The Physical Reality of My New Book! Here at the RSS Meeting (2 years ago)

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You can find several excerpts and mementos from the book, including whole “tours” (in proofs) updated June 2020 here.

Categories: SIST