Monthly Archives: November 2020

Is it impossible to commit Type I errors in statistical significance tests? (i)

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While immersed in our fast-paced, remote, NISS debate (October 15) with J. Berger and D. Trafimow, I didn’t immediately catch all that was said by my co-debaters (I will shortly post a transcript). We had all opted for no practice. But  looking over the transcript, I was surprised that David Trafimow was indeed saying the answer to the question in my title is yes. Here are some excerpts from his remarks: Continue reading

Categories: D. Trafimow, J. Berger, National Institute of Statistical Sciences (NISS), Testing Assumptions | 29 Comments

S. Senn: “A Vaccine Trial from A to Z” with a Postscript (guest post)

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Stephen Senn
Consultant Statistician
Edinburgh, Scotland

Alpha and Omega (or maybe just Beta)

Well actually, not from A to Z but from AZ. That is to say, the trial I shall consider is the placebo- controlled trial of the Oxford University vaccine for COVID-19 currently being run by AstraZeneca (AZ) under protocol AZD1222 – D8110C00001 and which I considered in a previous blog, Heard Immunity. A summary of the design  features is given in Table 1. The purpose of this blog is to look a little deeper at features of the trial and the way I am going to do so is with the help of geometric representations of the sample space, that is to say the possible results the trial could produce. However, the reader is warned that I am only an amateur in all this. The true professionals are the statisticians at AZ who, together with their life science colleagues in AZ and Oxford, designed the trial. Continue reading

Categories: covid-19, RCTs, Stephen Senn | 14 Comments

Phil Stat Forum: November 19: Stephen Senn, “Randomisation and Control in the Age of Coronavirus?”

For information about the Phil Stat Wars forum and how to join, see this post and this pdf. 


Continue reading

Categories: Error Statistics, randomization | Leave a comment

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