Monthly Archives: February 2021

Aris Spanos: Modeling vs. Inference in Frequentist Statistics (guest post)

.

Aris Spanos
Wilson Schmidt Professor of Economics
Department of Economics
Virginia Tech

The following guest post (link to updated PDF) was written in response to C. Hennig’s presentation at our Phil Stat Wars Forum on 18 February, 2021: “Testing With Models That Are Not True”. Continue reading

Categories: misspecification testing, Spanos, stat wars and their casualties | 11 Comments

R.A. Fisher: “Statistical methods and Scientific Induction” with replies by Neyman and E.S. Pearson

In Recognition of Fisher’s birthday (Feb 17), I reblog his contribution to the “Triad”–an exchange between  Fisher, Neyman and Pearson 20 years after the Fisher-Neyman break-up. The other two are below. My favorite is the reply by E.S. Pearson, but all are chock full of gems for different reasons. They are each very short and are worth your rereading. Continue reading

Categories: E.S. Pearson, Fisher, Neyman, phil/history of stat | Leave a comment

R. A. Fisher: How an Outsider Revolutionized Statistics (Aris Spanos)

A SPANOS

.

This is a belated birthday post for R.A. Fisher (17 February, 1890-29 July, 1962)–it’s a guest post from earlier on this blog by Aris Spanos that has gotten the highest number of hits over the years. 

Happy belated birthday to R.A. Fisher!

‘R. A. Fisher: How an Outsider Revolutionized Statistics’

by Aris Spanos

Few statisticians will dispute that R. A. Fisher (February 17, 1890 – July 29, 1962) is the father of modern statistics; see Savage (1976), Rao (1992). Inspired by William Gosset’s (1908) paper on the Student’s t finite sampling distribution, he recast statistics into the modern model-based induction in a series of papers in the early 1920s. He put forward a theory of optimal estimation based on the method of maximum likelihood that has changed only marginally over the last century. His significance testing, spearheaded by the p-value, provided the basis for the Neyman-Pearson theory of optimal testing in the early 1930s. According to Hald (1998) Continue reading

Categories: Fisher, phil/history of stat, Spanos | 2 Comments

Reminder: February 18 “Testing with models that are not true” (Christian Hennig)

The sixth meeting of our Phil Stat Forum*:

The Statistics Wars
and Their Casualties

18 February, 2021

TIME: 15:00-16:45 (London); 10-11:45 a.m. (New York, EST)

For information about the Phil Stat Wars forum and how to join, click on this link. 

.

Testing with Models that Are Not True Continue reading

Categories: Phil Stat Forum | Leave a comment

S. Senn: The Power of Negative Thinking (guest post)

.

 

Stephen Senn
Consultant Statistician
Edinburgh, Scotland

Sepsis sceptic

During an exchange on Twitter, Lawrence Lynn drew my attention to a paper by Laffey and Kavanagh[1]. This makes an interesting, useful and very depressing assessment of the situation as regards clinical trials in critical care. The authors make various claims that RCTs in this field are not useful as currently conducted. I don’t agree with the authors’ logic here although, perhaps, surprisingly, I consider that their conclusion might be true. I propose to discuss this here. Continue reading

Categories: power, randomization | 5 Comments

February 18 “Testing with models that are not true” (Christian Hennig)

The sixth meeting of our Phil Stat Forum*:

The Statistics Wars
and Their Casualties

18 February, 2021

TIME: 15:00-16:45 (London); 10-11:45 a.m. (New York, EST)

For information about the Phil Stat Wars forum and how to join, click on this link. 

.

Testing with Models that Are Not True

Christian Hennig

Continue reading

Categories: Phil Stat Forum | 1 Comment

The Covid-19 Mask Wars : Hi-Fi Mask Asks

.

Effective yesterday, February 1, it is a violation of federal law not to wear a mask on a public conveyance or in a transit hub, including taxis, trains and commercial trucks (The 11 page mandate is here.)

The “mask wars” are a major source of disagreement and politicizing science during the current pandemic, but my interest here is not of clashes between pro-and anti-mask culture warriors, but the clashing recommendations among science policy officials and scientists wearing their policy hats. A recent Washington Post editorial by Joseph Allen, (director of the Healthy Buildings program at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health), declares “Everyone should be wearing N95 masks now”. In his view: Continue reading

Categories: covid-19 | 27 Comments

Blog at WordPress.com.