Note on an Article by Sir Ronald Fisher
By Jerzy Neyman (1956)
Summary
(1) FISHER’S allegation that, contrary to some passages in the introduction and on the cover of the book by Wald, this book does not really deal with experimental design is unfounded. In actual fact, the book is permeated with problems of experimentation. (2) Without consideration of hypotheses alternative to the one under test and without the study of probabilities of the two kinds, no purely probabilistic theory of tests is possible. (3) The conceptual fallacy of the notion of fiducial distribution rests upon the lack of recognition that valid probability statements about random variables usually cease to be valid if the random variables are replaced by their particular values. The notorious multitude of “paradoxes” of fiducial theory is a consequence of this oversight. (4) The idea of a “cost function for faulty judgments” appears to be due to Laplace, followed by Gauss.
1. Introduction
In a recent article (Fisher, 1955), Sir Ronald Fisher delivered an attack on a a substantial part of the research workers in mathematical statistics. My name is mentioned more frequently than any other and is accompanied by the more expressive invectives. Of the scientific questions raised by Fisher many were sufficiently discussed before (Neyman and Pearson, 1933; Neyman, 1937; Neyman, 1952). In the present note only the following points will be considered: (i) Fisher’s attack on the concept of errors of the second kind; (ii) Fisher’s reference to my objections to fiducial probability; (iii) Fisher’s reference to the origin of the concept of loss function and, before all, (iv) Fisher’s attack on Abraham Wald.
THIS SHORT (5 page) NOTE IS NEYMAN’S PORTION OF WHAT I CALL THE “TRIAD”. LET ME POINT YOU TO THE TOP HALF OF p. 291, AND THE DISCUSSION OF FIDUCIAL INFERENCE ON p. 292 HERE.
Error Statistics Philosophy 