April 3, 2014: We interspersed discussion with slides; these cover the main readings of the day (check syllabus): the Duhem’s Problem and the Bayesian Way, and “Highly probable vs Highly Probed”. syllabus four. Slides are below (followers of this blog will be familiar with most of this, e.g., here). We also did further work on misspecification testing.
Monday, April 7, is an optional outing, “a seminar class trip”
you might say, here at Thebes at which time we will analyze the statistical curves of the mountains, pie charts of pizza, and (seriously) study some experiments on the problem of replication in “the Hamlet Effect in social psychology”. If you’re around please bop in!
Mayo’s slides on Duhem’s Problem and more from April 3 (Day#9):
Mayo: I am trying to solve the hypothesis testing problem from the first few slides and feel like I am missing a bit of information.
You give the priors p(A)=0.6, p(H)=.9
as well as three likelihoods p(e’|A,-H)=1e-3, p(e’|-A,H)=5e-2 and p(e’|-A,-H)=5e-2. What is the fourth likelihood value p(e’|A,H)? I figure I could back-calculate it from the results on page 6, but that wouldn’t be a proper test.