2023 Syllabus for Philosophy of Inductive-Statistical Inference

PHIL 6014 (crn: 20919): Spring 2023 

Philosophy of Inductive-Statistical Inference
(This is an IN-PERSON class*)
Wed 4:00-6:30 pm, McBryde 22
*There may be opportunities for zooming half-way through the semester.

Syllabus: First Installment (PDF)

D. Mayo (2018) Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars (SIST) CUP, 2018: SIST (electronic and paper provided to those taking the class; proofs are at errorstatistics.com, see below).
Articles from the Captain’s Bibliography (links to new articles will be provided). Other useful information can be found on the SIST Abstracts & Keywords and this post with SIST Excerpts & Mementos)

DateThemes/readings
1. 1/18      Introduction to the Course:
How to tell what’s true about statistical inference

(1/18/23 SLIDES here)

Reading: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars (SIST): Preface, Excursion 1 Tour I 1.1-1.3, 9-29

MISC: Souvenir A; SIST Abstracts & Keywords for all excursions and tours
2. 1/25
Q #2
 
Error Probing Tools vs Comparative Evidence: Likelihood & Probability
What counts as cheating?
Intro to Logic: arguments validity & soundness

(1/25/23 SLIDES here)

Reading: SIST: Excursion 1 Tour II 1.4-1.5, 30-55
Session #2 Questions: (PDF)

MISC: NOTES on Excursion 1, SIST: Souvenirs B, C & D, Logic Primer (PDF)
3. 2/1
   Q #3
UPDATED
Induction and Confirmation: PhilStat & Formal Epistemology
The Traditional Problem of Induction
Is Probability a Good Measure of Confirmation? Tacking Paradox

(2/1/23 SLIDES here)

Reading: SIST: Excursion 2, Tour I: 2.1-2.2, 59-74
Hacking “The Basic Rules of Probability” Hand Out (PDF)
UPDATED: Session #3 Questions: (PDF)

MISC: Excursion 2 Tour I Blurb & notes
4. 2/8 &
5. 2/15
Assign 1 2/15 
Falsification, Science vs Pseudoscience, Induction
Statistical Crises of Replication in Psychology & other sciences

Popper, severity and novelty, array of problems and models
Fallacies of rejection, Duhem’s problem; solving induction now

Reading for 2/8: Popper, Ch 1 from Conjectures and Refutations (PDF), Popper Test
Reading for 2/15: SIST: Excursion 2, Tour II: 2.3-2.7, pages TBA
Optional for 2/15: Gelman & Loken (2014)

ASSIGNMENT 1 (due 2/15) (PDF)

MISC: SIST Souvenirs (E), (F), (G),(H
Excursion 2 Tour II Blurb & notes
 Fisher Birthday: February 17: Celebration of N-F wars
6. 2/22 & 7. 3/1Ingenious and Severe Tests: Fisher, Neyman-Pearson, Cox: Concepts of Tests
Reading SIST: Excursion 3 Tour I: 3.1-3.3, 119-163 (trade-offs 328-330)

The Triad: Fisher (1955), Pearson (1955); Neyman (1956)
The 1919 eclipse tests; Fisherian and N-P Tests;
Frequentist principle of evidence: FEV

Apps for statistical testing 
MISC: Excursion 3 Tour I Blurb & notes
SPRING BREAK Statistical Exercises While Sunning (March 4-12)

The following is very tentative, and will depend on student interests.
8. 3/15 Assign 2Confidence & Fiducial Intervals and Deeper Concepts:
Higgs Discovery
9. 3/22Objectivity in Science: Objectivity in Error Statistics & Bayesian Philosophies
10. 3/29 Short essayBayes factors and Bayes/Fisher Disagreement, Jeffreys-Lindley Paradox
11. 4/5Biasing Selection Effects, P-Hacking, Data Dredging etc.
12. 4/12
Assign 3
Negative Results: Power vs Severity
13. 4/19Should Statistical Significance Tests be Abandoned, Retired, or Replaced?
Other: TBA
14. 4/26Severity, Sensitivity, Safety: PhilStat and Classical Epistemology
15. 5/3Current Reforms and Stat Activism: Practicing Our Skills
  Final Paper
Categories: Announcement, new course | 2 Comments

Post navigation

2 thoughts on “2023 Syllabus for Philosophy of Inductive-Statistical Inference

  1. invictus94

    Hi Dr. Mayo. I’m interested in attending on zoom but can’t because of another class at the time. Will you be uploading lectures on Youtube? Thanks.

I welcome constructive comments that are of relevance to the post and the discussion, and discourage detours into irrelevant topics, however interesting, or unconstructive declarations that "you (or they) are just all wrong". If you want to correct or remove a comment, send me an e-mail. If readers have already replied to the comment, you may be asked to replace it to retain comprehension.

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

Blog at WordPress.com.