Announcement

Philosophy and History of Science Announcements

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2016 UK-EU Foundations of Physics Conference

Start Date:16 July 2016

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“Using PhilStat to Make Progress in the Replication Crisis in Psych” at Society for PhilSci in Practice (SPSP)

Screen Shot 2016-06-15 at 1.19.23 PMI’m giving a joint presentation with Caitlin Parker[1] on Friday (June 17) at the meeting of the Society for Philosophy of Science in Practice (SPSP): “Using Philosophy of Statistics to Make Progress in the Replication Crisis in Psychology” (Rowan University, Glassboro, N.J.)[2] The Society grew out of a felt need to break out of the sterile straightjacket wherein philosophy of science occurs divorced from practice. The topic of the relevance of PhilSci and PhilStat to Sci has often come up on this blog, so people might be interested in the SPSP mission statement below our abstract.

Using Philosophy of Statistics to Make Progress in the Replication Crisis in Psychology

Deborah Mayo Virginia Tech, Department of Philosophy United States
Caitlin Parker Virginia Tech, Department of Philosophy United States

Continue reading

Categories: Announcement, replication research, reproducibility | 8 Comments

My Popper Talk at LSE: The Statistical Replication Crisis: Paradoxes and Scapegoats

I’m giving a Popper talk at the London School of Economics next Tuesday (10 May). If you’re in the neighborhood, I hope you’ll stop by.

Popper talk May 10 location

A somewhat accurate blurb is here. I say “somewhat” because it doesn’t mention that I’ll talk a bit about the replication crisis in psychology, and the issues that crop up (or ought to) in connecting statistical results and the causal claim of interest.

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Categories: Announcement | 6 Comments

Philosophy & Physical Computing Graduate Workshop at VT

A Graduate Summer Workshop at Virginia Tech (Poster)

Application deadline: May 8, 2016 

 

Think & Code VT

PHILOSOPHY & PHYSICAL COMPUTING
JULY 11-24, 2016 at Virginia Tech

Who should apply:

  • This workshop is open to graduate students in master’s or PhD programs in philosophy or the sciences, including computer science.

For additional information or to apply online, visit thinkandcode.vtlibraries.org, or contact Dr. Benjamin Jantzen at bjantzen@vt.edu

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I’m speaking at Univ of Minnesota on Friday

I’ll be speaking at U of Minnesota tomorrow. I’m glad to see a group with interest in philosophical foundations of statistics as well as the foundations of experiment and measurement in psychology. I will post my slides afterwards. Come by if you’re in the neighborhood. 

University of Minnesota
“The ASA (2016) Statement on P-values and
How to Stop Refighting the Statistics Wars”


April 8, 2016 at 3:35 p.m.

 

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Deborah G. Mayo
Department of Philosophy, Virginia Tech

The CLA Quantitative Methods
Collaboration Committee
&
Minnesota Center for Philosophy of Science

275 Nicholson Hall
216 Pillsbury Drive SE
University of Minnesota
Minneapolis MN

 

This will be a mixture of my current take on the “statistics wars” together with my reflections on the recent ASA document on P-values. I was invited over a year ago already by Niels Waller, a co-author of Paul Meehl. I’ll never forget when I was there in 1997: Paul Meehl was in the audience, waving my book in the air–EGEK (1996)–and smiling!

Categories: Announcement | 3 Comments

Winner of December Palindrome: Mike Jacovides

Mike Jacovides

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Winner of the December 2015 Palindrome contest

Mike Jacovides: Associate Professor of Philosophy at Purdue University

Palindrome: Emo, notable Stacy began a memory by Rome. Manage by cats, Elba to Nome.

The requirement: A palindrome using “memory” or “memories” (and Elba, of course).

Book choice (out of 12 or more)Error and the Growth of Experimental Knowledge (D. Mayo 1996, Chicago)

Bio: Mike Jacovides is an Associate Professor of Philosophy at Purdue University. He’s just finishing a book whose title is constantly changing, but which may end up being called Locke’s Image of the World and the Scientific Revolution.

Statement: My interest in palindromes was sparked by my desire to learn more about the philosophy of statistics. The fact that you can learn about the philosophy of statistics by writing a palindrome seems like evidence that anything can cause anything, but maybe once I read the book, I’ll learn that it isn’t. I am glad that ‘emo, notable Stacy’ worked out, I have to say.

Congratulations Mike! I hope you’ll continue to pursue philosophy of statistics! We need much more of that. Good choice of book prize too. D. Mayo Continue reading

Categories: Announcement, Palindrome | 1 Comment

Preregistration Challenge: My email exchange

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David Mellor, from the Center for Open Science, emailed me asking if I’d announce his Preregistration Challenge on my blog, and I’m glad to do so. You win $1,000 if your properly preregistered paper is published. The recent replication effort in psychology showed, despite the common refrain – “it’s too easy to get low P-values” – that in preregistered replication attempts it’s actually very difficult to get small P-values. (I call this the “paradox of replication”[1].) Here’s our e-mail exchange from this morning:

          Dear Deborah Mayod,

I’m reaching out to individuals who I think may be interested in our recently launched competition, the Preregistration Challenge (https://cos.io/prereg). Based on your blogging, I thought it could be of interest to you and to your readers.

In case you are unfamiliar with it, preregistration specifies in advance the precise study protocols and analytical decisions before data collection, in order to separate the hypothesis-generating exploratory work from the hypothesis testing confirmatory work. 

Though required by law in clinical trials, it is virtually unknown within the basic sciences. We are trying to encourage this new behavior by offering 1,000 researchers $1000 prizes for publishing the results of their preregistered work. 

Please let me know if this is something you would consider blogging about or sharing in other ways. I am happy to discuss further. 

Best,

David
David Mellor, PhD

Project Manager, Preregistration Challenge, Center for Open Science

 

Deborah Mayo To David:                                                                          10:33 AM (1 hour ago)

David: Yes I’m familiar with it, and I hope that it encourages people to avoid data-dependent determinations that bias results. It shows the importance of statistical accounts that can pick up on such biasing selection effects. On the other hand, coupling prereg with some of the flexible inference accounts now in use won’t really help. Moreover, there may, in some fields, be a tendency to research a non-novel, fairly trivial result.

And if they’re going to preregister, why not go blind as well?  Will they?

Best,

Mayo Continue reading

Categories: Announcement, preregistration, Statistical fraudbusting, Statistics | 11 Comments

“Frequentist Accuracy of Bayesian Estimates” (Efron Webinar announcement)

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Brad Efron

The Royal Statistical Society sent me a letter announcing their latest Journal webinar next Wednesday 21 October:

…RSS Journal webinar on 21st October featuring Bradley Efron, Andrew Gelman and Peter Diggle. They will be in discussion about Bradley Efron’s recently published paper titled ‘Frequentist accuracy of Bayesian estimates’. The paper was published in June in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), Vol 77 (3), 617-646.  It is free to access from October 7th to November 4th.

Webinar start time: 8 am in California (PDT); 11 am in New York (EDT); 4pm (UK time).

During the webinar, Bradley Efron will present his paper for about 30 minutes followed by a Q&A session with the audience. Andrew Gelman is joining us as discussant and the event will be chaired by our President, Peter Diggle. Participation in the Q&A session by anyone who dials in is warmly welcomed and actively encouraged.Participants can ask the author a question over the phone or simply issue a message using the web based teleconference system.  Questions can be emailed in advance and further information can be requested from journalwebinar@rss.org.uk.

More details about this journal webinar and how to join can be found in StatsLife and on the RSS website.  RSS Journal webinars are sponsored by Quintiles.

We’d be delighted if you were able to join us on the 21st and very grateful if you could let your colleagues and students know about the event.

I will definitely be tuning in!

Categories: Announcement, Statistics | 6 Comments

Workshop on Replication in the Sciences: Society for Philosophy and Psychology: (2nd part of double header)

brain-quadrants2nd part of the double header:

Society for Philosophy and Psychology (SPP): 41st Annual meeting

SPP 2015 Program

Wednesday, June 3rd
1:30-6:30: Preconference Workshop on Replication in the Sciences, organized by Edouard Machery

1:30-2:15: Edouard Machery (Pitt)
2:15-3:15: Andrew Gelman (Columbia, Statistics, via video link)
3:15-4:15: Deborah Mayo (Virginia Tech, Philosophy)
4:15-4:30: Break
4:30-5:30: Uri Simonshon (Penn, Psychology)
5:30-6:30: Tal Yarkoni (University of Texas, Neuroscience)

 SPP meeting: 4-6 June 2015 at Duke University in Durham, North Carolina

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

First part of the double header:

The Philosophy of Statistics: Bayesianism, Frequentism and the Nature of Inference, 2015 APS Annual Convention Saturday, May 23  2:00 PM- 3:50 PM in Wilder (Marriott Marquis 1535 B’way)aps_2015_logo_cropped-1

Andrew Gelman
Stephen Senn
Deborah Mayo
Richard Morey, Session Chair & Discussant
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Slide1

taxi: VA-NYC-NC

 See earlier post for Frank Sinatra and more details
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Philosophy of Statistics Comes to the Big Apple! APS 2015 Annual Convention — NYC

Start Spreading the News…..

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 The Philosophy of Statistics: Bayesianism, Frequentism and the Nature of Inference,
2015 APS Annual Convention
Saturday, May 23  
2:00 PM- 3:50 PM in Wilder

(Marriott Marquis 1535 B’way)

 

 

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Andrew Gelman

Professor of Statistics & Political Science
Columbia University

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Stephen Senn

Head of Competence Center
for Methodology and Statistics (CCMS)

Luxembourg Institute of Health

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D. Mayo headshot

D.G. Mayo, Philosopher


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Richard Morey, Session Chair & Discussant

Senior Lecturer
School of Psychology
Cardiff University
Categories: Announcement, Bayesian/frequentist, Statistics | 8 Comments

Announcing Kent Staley’s new book, An Introduction to the Philosophy of Science (CUP)

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Kent Staley has written a clear and engaging introduction to PhilSci that manages to blend the central key topics of philosophy of science with current philosophy of statistics. Quite possibly, Staley explains Error Statistics more clearly in many ways than I do in his 10 page section, 9.4. CONGRATULATIONS STALEY*

You can get this book for free by merely writing one of the simpler palindrome’s in the December contest.

Here’s an excerpt from that section:

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Staley

9.4 Error-statistical philosophy of science and severe testing

Deborah Mayo has developed an alternative approach to the interpretation of frequentist statistical inference (Mayo 1996). But the idea at the heart of Mayo’s approach is one that can be stated without invoking probability at all. ….

Mayo takes the following “minimal scientific principle for evidence” to be uncontroversial:

Principle 3 (Minimal principle for evidence) Data xo provide poor evidence for H if they result from a method or procedure that has little or no ability of finding flaws in H, even if H is false.(Mayo and Spanos, 2009, 3) Continue reading

Categories: Announcement, Palindrome, Statistics, StatSci meets PhilSci | Tags: | 10 Comments

My Rutgers Seminar: tomorrow, December 3, on philosophy of statistics

picture-216-1I’ll be talking about philosophy of statistics tomorrow afternoon at Rutgers University, in the Statistics and Biostatistics Department, if you happen to be in the vicinity and are interested.

RUTGERS UNIVERSITY DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS AND BIOSTATISTICS www.stat.rutgers.edu

Seminar Speaker:     Professor Deborah Mayo, Virginia Tech

Title:           Probing with Severity: Beyond Bayesian Probabilism and Frequentist Performance

Time:          3:20 – 4:20pm, Wednesday, December 3, 2014 Place:         552 Hill Center

ABSTRACT

Probing with Severity: Beyond Bayesian Probabilism and Frequentist Performance Getting beyond today’s most pressing controversies revolving around statistical methods, I argue, requires scrutinizing their underlying statistical philosophies.Two main philosophies about the roles of probability in statistical inference are probabilism and performance (in the long-run). The first assumes that we need a method of assigning probabilities to hypotheses; the second assumes that the main function of statistical method is to control long-run performance. I offer a third goal: controlling and evaluating the probativeness of methods. An inductive inference, in this conception, takes the form of inferring hypotheses to the extent that they have been well or severely tested. A report of poorly tested claims must also be part of an adequate inference. I develop a statistical philosophy in which error probabilities of methods may be used to evaluate and control the stringency or severity of tests. I then show how the “severe testing” philosophy clarifies and avoids familiar criticisms and abuses of significance tests and cognate methods (e.g., confidence intervals). Severity may be threatened in three main ways: fallacies of statistical tests, unwarranted links between statistical and substantive claims, and violations of model assumptions.

Categories: Announcement, Statistics | 4 Comments

September 2014: Blog Contents

metablog old fashion typewriterSeptember 2014: Error Statistics Philosophy
Blog Table of Contents 

Compiled by Jean A. Miller

  • (9/30) Letter from George (Barnard)
  • (9/27) Should a “Fictionfactory” peepshow be barred from a festival on “Truth and Reality”? Diederik Stapel says no (rejected post)
  • (9/23) G.A. Barnard: The Bayesian “catch-all” factor: probability vs likelihood
  • (9/21) Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”
  • (9/18) Uncle Sam wants YOU to help with scientific reproducibility!
  • (9/15) A crucial missing piece in the Pistorius trial? (2): my answer (Rejected Post)
  • (9/12) “The Supernal Powers Withhold Their Hands And Let Me Alone”: C.S. Peirce
  • (9/6) Statistical Science: The Likelihood Principle issue is out…!
  • (9/4) All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy Contents-3 years on
  • (9/3) 3 in blog years: Sept 3 is 3rd anniversary of errorstatistics.com

 

 

 

 

Categories: Announcement, blog contents, Statistics | Leave a comment

Uncle Sam wants YOU to help with scientific reproducibility!

You still have a few days to respond to the call of your country to solve problems of scientific reproducibility!

The following passages come from Retraction Watch, with my own recommendations at the end.

“White House takes notice of reproducibility in science, and wants your opinion”

ostpThe White House’s Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is taking a look at innovation and scientific research, and issues of reproducibility have made it onto its radar.

Here’s the description of the project from the Federal Register:

The Office of Science and Technology Policy and the National Economic Council request public comments to provide input into an upcoming update of the Strategy for American Innovation, which helps to guide the Administration’s efforts to promote lasting economic growth and competitiveness through policies that support transformative American innovation in products, processes, and services and spur new fundamental discoveries that in the long run lead to growing economic prosperity and rising living standards.

I wonder what Steven Pinker would say about some of the above verbiage?

And here’s what’s catching the eye of people interested in scientific reproducibility:

(11) Given recent evidence of the irreproducibility of a surprising number of published scientific findings, how can the Federal Government leverage its role as a significant funder of scientific research to most effectively address the problem?

The OSTP is the same office that, in 2013, took what Nature called “a long-awaited leap forward for open access” when it said “that publications from taxpayer-funded research should be made free to read after a year’s delay.That OSTP memo came after more than 65,000 people “signed a We the People petition asking for expanded public access to the results of taxpayer-funded research.”

Have ideas on improving reproducibility? Emails to innovationstrategy@ostp.gov are preferred, according to the notice, which also explains how to fax or mail comments. The deadline is September 23.

Off the top of my head, how about:

Promote the use of methodologies that:

  • control and assess the capabilities of methods to avoid mistaken inferences from data;
  • require demonstrated self-criticism all the way from the data collection, modelling and interpretation (statistical and substantive);
  • describe what is especially shaky or poorly probed thus far (and spell out how subsequent studies are most likely to locate those flaws)[i]

Institute penalties for QRPs and fraud?

Please offer your suggestions in the comments, or directly to Uncle Sam.

 [i]It may require a certain courage on the part of researchers, journalists, referees.

Categories: Announcement, reproducibility | 18 Comments

3 in blog years: Sept 3 is 3rd anniversary of errorstatistics.com

Where did you hear this?  “Join me, if you will, for a little deep-water drilling, as I cast about on my isle of Elba.” Remember this and this? And this philosophical treatise on “moving blog day”? Oy, did I really write all this stuff?

http://errorstatistics.blogspot.com/2011/09/overheard-at-comedy-hour-at-bayesian_03.html

cake baked by blog staff for 3 year anniversary of errorstatistics.com

I still see this as my rag-tag amateur blog. I never learned html and don’t have time to now. But the blog enterprise was more jocund and easy-going then–just an experiment, really, and a place to discuss our RMM papers. (And, of course, a home for error statistical philosophers-in-exile).

A blog table of contents for all three years will appear tomorrow.

Anyway, 2 representatives from Elba flew into NYC and  baked this cake in my never-used Chef’s oven (based on the cover/table of contents of EGEK 1996). We’ll be celebrating at A Different Place tonight[i]–so if you’re in the neighborhood, stop by after 8pm for an Elba Grease (on me).

Do you want a free signed copy of EGEK? Say why in 25 words or less (to error@vt.edu), and the Fund for E.R.R.O.R.* will send them to the top 3 submissions (by 9/10/14).**

Acknowledgments: I want to thank the many commentators for their frequent insights and for keeping things interesting and lively. Among the regulars, and semi-regulars (but with impact) off the top of my head, and in no order: Senn, Yanofsky, Byrd, Gelman, Schachtman, Kepler, McKinney, S. Young, Matloff, O’Rourke, Gandenberger, Wasserman, E. Berk, Spanos, Glymour, Rohde, Greenland, Omaclaren,someone named Mark, assorted guests, original guests, and anons, and mysterious visitors, related twitterers (who would rather tweet from afar). I’m sure I’ve left some people out. Thanks to students and participants in the spring 2014 seminar with Aris Spanos (slides and lecture notes are still up).

I’m especially grateful to my regular guest bloggers: Stephen Senn and Aris Spanos, and to those who were subjected to deconstructions and to U-Phils in years past. (I may return to that some time.) Other guest posters for 2014 will be acknowledged in the year round up.

I thank blog compilers, Jean Miler and Nicole Jinn, and give special thanks for the tireless efforts of Jean Miller who has slogged through html, or whatever it is, when necessary, has scanned and put up dozens of articles to make them easy for readers to access, taken slow ferries back and forth to the island of Elba, and fixed gazillions of glitches on a daily basis. Last, but not least, to the palindromists who have been winning lots of books recently (1 day left for August submissions).

*Experimental Reasoning, Reliability, Objectivity and Rationality.

** Accompany submissions with an e-mail address and regular address. All submissions remain private. Elba judges decisions are final. Void in any places where prohibited by laws, be they laws of likelihood or Napoleanic laws-in-exile. But seriously, we’re giving away 3 books.

[i]email for directions.

Categories: Announcement, Statistics | 12 Comments

Blogging Boston JSM2014?

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I’m not there. (Several people have asked, I guess because I blogged JSM13.) If you hear of talks (or anecdotes) of interest to error statistics.com, please comment here (or twitter: @learnfromerror)

Categories: Announcement | 7 Comments

Winner of June Palindrome Contest: Lori Wike

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Winner of June 2014 Palindrome Contest: First Second* Time Winner! Lori Wike

*Her April win is here

Palindrome:

Parsec? I overfit omen as Elba sung “I err on! Oh, honor reign!” Usable, sane motif revoices rap.

The requirement: A palindrome with Elba plus overfit. (The optional second word: “average” was not needed to win.)

Bio:

Lori Wike is principal bassoonist of the Utah Symphony and is on the faculty of the University of Utah and Westminster College. She holds a Bachelor of Music degree from the Eastman School of Music and a Master of Arts degree in Comparative Literature from UC-Irvine.

Continue reading

Categories: Announcement, Palindrome | Leave a comment

Scientism and Statisticism: a conference* (i)

images-11A lot of philosophers and scientists seem to be talking about scientism these days–either championing it or worrying about it. What is it? It’s usually a pejorative term describing an unwarranted deference to the so-called scientific method over and above other methods of inquiry. Some push it as a way to combat postmodernism (is that even still around?) Stephen Pinker gives scientism a positive spin (and even offers it as a cure for the malaise of the humanities!)[1]. Anyway, I’m to talk at a conference on Scientism (*not statisticism, that’s my word) taking place in NYC May 16-17. It is organized by Massimo Pigliucci (chair of philosophy at CUNY-Lehman), who has written quite a lot on the topic in the past few years. Information can be found here. In thinking about scientism for this conference, however, I was immediately struck by this puzzle: Continue reading

Categories: Announcement, PhilStatLaw, science communication, Statistical fraudbusting, StatSci meets PhilSci | Tags: | 15 Comments

Winner of April Palindrome contest: Lori Wike

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Lori Wike

Winner of April 2014 Palindrome Contest:

Lori Wike

Palindrome:

Pose ad: ‘Elba fallacy amid aged? Amygdala error or real?’ Ad: gym ad? Egad! I may call a fabled Aesop.

The requirement: A palindrome with Elba plus “fallacy” with an optional second word: “error”. A palindrome using both topped an acceptable palindrome using only “fallacy”. All April submissions used both. Other April finalists are here.

Bio:

Lori Wike is principal bassoonist of the Utah Symphony and is on the faculty of the University of Utah and Westminster College. She holds a Bachelor of Music degree from the Eastman School of Music and a Master of Arts degree in Comparative Literature from UC-Irvine.

Continue reading

Categories: Announcement, Palindrome | 1 Comment

Putting the brakes on the breakthrough: An informal look at the argument for the Likelihood Principle

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Friday, May 2, 2014, I will attempt to present my critical analysis of the Birnbaum argument for the (strong) Likelihood Principle, so as to be accessible to a general philosophy audience (flyer below). Can it be done? I don’t know yet, this is a first. It will consist of:

  • Example 1: Trying and Trying Again: Optional stopping
  • Example 2: Two instruments with different precisions
    [you shouldn’t get credit (or blame) for something you didn’t do]
  • The Breakthough: Birnbaumization
  • Imaginary dialogue with Allan Birnbaum

The full paper is here. My discussion takes several pieces a reader can explore further by searching this blog (e.g., under SLP, brakes e.g., here, Birnbaum, optional stopping). I will post slides afterwards.

Mayo poster

Categories: Announcement, Birnbaum Brakes, Statistics, strong likelihood principle | 23 Comments

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