PHIL 6014 (crn: 20919): Spring 2023
Philosophy of Inductive-Statistical Inference
(This is an IN-PERSON class*)
Wed 4:00-6:30 pm, McBryde 22
*There may be opportunities for zooming half-way through the semester.
Syllabus: First Installment (PDF)
D. Mayo (2018) Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars (SIST) CUP, 2018: SIST (electronic and paper provided to those taking the class; proofs are at errorstatistics.com, see below).
Articles from the Captain’s Bibliography (links to new articles will be provided). Other useful information can be found on the SIST Abstracts & Keywords and this post with SIST Excerpts & Mementos)
| Date | Themes/readings |
| 1. 1/18 | Introduction to the Course: How to tell what’s true about statistical inference (1/18/23 SLIDES here) Reading: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars (SIST): Preface, Excursion 1 Tour I 1.1-1.3, 9-29 MISC: Souvenir A; SIST Abstracts & Keywords for all excursions and tours |
| 2. 1/25 Q #2 | Error Probing Tools vs Comparative Evidence: Likelihood & Probability What counts as cheating? Intro to Logic: arguments validity & soundness (1/25/23 SLIDES here) Reading: SIST: Excursion 1 Tour II 1.4-1.5, 30-55 Session #2 Questions: (PDF) MISC: NOTES on Excursion 1, SIST: Souvenirs B, C & D, Logic Primer (PDF) |
| 3. 2/1 Q #3 UPDATED | Induction and Confirmation: PhilStat & Formal Epistemology The Traditional Problem of Induction Is Probability a Good Measure of Confirmation? Tacking Paradox (2/1/23 SLIDES here) Reading: SIST: Excursion 2, Tour I: 2.1-2.2, 59-74 Hacking “The Basic Rules of Probability” Hand Out (PDF) UPDATED: Session #3 Questions: (PDF) MISC: Excursion 2 Tour I Blurb & notes |
| 4. 2/8 & 5. 2/15 Assign 1 2/15 | Falsification, Science vs Pseudoscience, Induction Statistical Crises of Replication in Psychology & other sciences Popper, severity and novelty, array of problems and models Fallacies of rejection, Duhem’s problem; solving induction now Reading for 2/8: Popper, Ch 1 from Conjectures and Refutations (PDF), Popper Test Reading for 2/15: SIST: Excursion 2, Tour II: 2.3-2.7, pages TBA Optional for 2/15: Gelman & Loken (2014) ASSIGNMENT 1 (due 2/15) (PDF) MISC: SIST Souvenirs (E), (F), (G),(H) Excursion 2 Tour II Blurb & notes |
| Fisher Birthday: February 17: Celebration of N-F wars | |
| 6. 2/22 & 7. 3/1 | Ingenious and Severe Tests: Fisher, Neyman-Pearson, Cox: Concepts of Tests Reading SIST: Excursion 3 Tour I: 3.1-3.3, 119-163 (trade-offs 328-330) The Triad: Fisher (1955), Pearson (1955); Neyman (1956) The 1919 eclipse tests; Fisherian and N-P Tests; Frequentist principle of evidence: FEV Apps for statistical testing MISC: Excursion 3 Tour I Blurb & notes |
The following is very tentative, and will depend on student interests.
| 8. 3/15 Assign 2 | Confidence & Fiducial Intervals and Deeper Concepts: Higgs Discovery |
| 9. 3/22 | Objectivity in Science: Objectivity in Error Statistics & Bayesian Philosophies |
| 10. 3/29 Short essay | Bayes factors and Bayes/Fisher Disagreement, Jeffreys-Lindley Paradox |
| 11. 4/5 | Biasing Selection Effects, P-Hacking, Data Dredging etc. |
| 12. 4/12 Assign 3 | Negative Results: Power vs Severity |
| 13. 4/19 | Should Statistical Significance Tests be Abandoned, Retired, or Replaced? Other: TBA |
| 14. 4/26 | Severity, Sensitivity, Safety: PhilStat and Classical Epistemology |
| 15. 5/3 | Current Reforms and Stat Activism: Practicing Our Skills |
| Final Paper |
Error Statistics Philosophy 