PHIL 6014 (crn: 20919): Spring 2023
Philosophy of Inductive-Statistical Inference
(This is an IN-PERSON class*)
Wed 4:00-6:30 pm, McBryde 223
(Office hours: Tuesdays 3-4; Wednesdays 1:30-2:30)
Syllabus: Third Installment (PDF)
Syllabus Evaluation & Advice (enrolled members (PDF))
D. Mayo (2018) Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars (SIST) CUP, 2018: SIST (electronic and paper provided to those taking the class; proofs are at errorstatistics.com, see below).
Supplemental text: Hacking, I. (2001). An introduction to probability and inductive logic. Cambridge University Press.
Articles from the Captain’s Bibliography (links to new articles will be provided).
Other useful information can be found on the SIST Abstracts & Keywords and this post with SIST Excerpts & Mementos)
| Date | Themes/readings |
| 1. 1/18 | Introduction to the Course: How to tell what’s true about statistical inference (1/18/23 SLIDES here) Reading: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars (SIST): Preface, Excursion 1 Tour I 1.1-1.3, 9-29 MISC: Souvenir A; SIST Abstracts & Keywords for all excursions and tours |
| 2. 1/25 Q #2 |
Error Probing Tools vs Comparative Evidence: Likelihood & Probability What counts as cheating? Intro to Logic: arguments validity & soundness (1/25/23 SLIDES here) Reading: SIST: Excursion 1 Tour II 1.4-1.5, 30-55 Session #2 Questions: (PDF) MISC: NOTES on Excursion 1, SIST: Souvenirs B, C & D, Logic Primer (PDF) |
| 3. 2/1 Q #3 UPDATED |
Induction and Confirmation: PhilStat & Formal Epistemology The Traditional Problem of Induction Is Probability a Good Measure of Confirmation? Tacking Paradox (2/1/23 SLIDES here) Reading: SIST: Excursion 2, Tour I: 2.1-2.2, 59-74 Hacking “The Basic Rules of Probability” Hand Out (PDF) UPDATED: Session #3 Questions: (PDF) MISC: Excursion 2 Tour I Blurb & notes |
| 4. 2/8 & 5. 2/15 Assign 1 2/15 |
Falsification, Science vs Pseudoscience, Induction Statistical Crises of Replication in Psychology & other sciences Popper, severity and novelty, array of problems and models Fallacies of rejection, Duhem’s problem; solving induction now (/2/8/23 SLIDES here) Reading for 2/8: Popper, Ch 1 from Conjectures and Refutations up to p. 59. (PDF), This class overlaps with the next, so if you have time read Excursion 2, Tour II: (p. 75-82); Exhibit vi. (p. 82); and p. 108 Session #4 Questions: (PDF) MISC (2/8): Self-quiz on Popper for Fun! (PDF); Cartoon Guide to Statistics (Link to VT Library link is here) ———————- Reading for 2/15: SIST: Excursion 2, Tour II: read sections that interest you from those not covered last week. You can choose the example in 2.6 (or one from your field) or the discussion of solving induction in 2.7. Optional for 2/15: Gelman & Loken (2014) (2/15/23 SLIDES here) ASSIGNMENT 1 (due 2/15) (PDF) MISC (2/15): SIST Souvenirs (E), (F), (G), (H); Excursion 2 Tour II Blurb & notes |
| Fisher Birthday: February 17: Celebration on 2/22 | |
| 6. 2/22 Q #6 & 7. 3/1
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Ingenious and Severe Tests: Fisher, Neyman-Pearson, Cox: Concepts of Tests
Session #6 Questions: (PDF) Optional: The pathological Fisher (fiducial) and Neyman (performance) battle: SIST 388-391 ——————————————-
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Sessions #11-14 are tentative; please have a look at what’s in them so we can decide which to skip
| 8. 3/15 Assign 2 |
Deeper Concepts (2 parts): Stat in the Higg’s discovery, and Confidence intervals and their duality with tests Reading (for first part): Excursion 3 Tour III, 3.8 Higgs Discovery (See the ASA 6 principles on P-values: Note 4, P. 216, and Live Exhibit (ix) p. 200: Souv. N p. 201 Reading (for second part): Excursion 3 Tour III, 3.7: pp. 189-195 Assignment 2 (PDF) due 3/17/23 (3/15/23 (revised) SLIDES here) Misc. Excursion 3 Tour III blurb & notes |
| 9. 3/22 |
Testing Assumptions of Statistical Models (Guest Speaker: Aris Spanos on misspecification testing in statistics) Misc. Excursion 4 Tour IV blurb & notes |
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10. 3/29
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Who’s Exaggerating what? Bayes factors and Bayes/Fisher Disagreement, Jeffreys-Lindley Paradox (Guest Speaker: Richard Morey on Bayes Factors) Misc. Excursion 4 Tour II blurb & notes |
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11. 4/5 Mini essay |
More on: Bayes factors and Bayes/Fisher Disagreement, Jeffreys-Lindley Paradox
Reading. Excursion 4 Tour II and Excursion 6, Tour I: 395-423 (We are spending 2 weeks on these: Excursion 6 Tour I will be post zoom.)
Optional: Objectivity in stat Excursion 4 Tour I: 4.1, 4.2; 221-238
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| 12. 4/12 |
Biasing Selection Effects and Randomization |
| 13. 4/19
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Power: Pre-data and Post-data 4/19/23 Slides (PDF) |
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14. 4/26 Assign 3 |
Positive Predictive Value and Probabilistic Instantiation
Controversies about inferring probabilities from frequencies (in law and epistemology) Reading: Tail end of Excursion 5 Tour I: Exhibit (v), Souvenir X: SIN and SIR; Excursion 5 Tour II: Section 5.6 (excursion 5 Tour II); Farewell Keepsake: (Section 6.7 in Excursion 6 Tour II) 4/26/23/Slides (PDF) We won’t consider the following, but I leave it here in case anyone wants to look at it:Gardiner and Zaharatos (2022), “The Safe, the Sensitive, and the Severely Tested” |
| 15. 5/3 |
Review of the main themes of the seminar
Optional: Gardiner and Zaharatos (2022), “The Safe, the Sensitive, and the Severely Tested” 5/3/23 Slides (PDF) |
| FINAL PAPER: (PDF) |
Error Statistics Philosophy 