Error Statistics Philosophy: Blog Contents (7 years) [i]
By: D. G. Mayo
Dear Reader: I began this blog 7 years ago (Sept. 3, 2011)! A big celebration is taking place at the Elbar Room this evening, both for the blog and the appearance of my new book: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars (CUP). While a special rush edition made an appearance on Sept 3, in time for the RSS meeting in Cardiff, it was decided to hold off on the festivities until copies of the book were officially available (yesterday)! If you’re in the neighborhood, stop by for some Elba Grease
Many of the discussions in the book were importantly influenced (corrected and improved) by reader’s comments on the blog over the years. I thank readers for their input. Please peruse the offerings below, taking advantage of the discussions by guest posters and readers! I posted the first 3 sections of Tour I (in Excursion i) here, here, and here.
This blog will return to life, although I’m not yet sure of exactly what form it will take. Ideas are welcome. The tone of a book differs from a blog, so we’ll have to see what voice emerges here.
D. Mayo Continue reading
MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: January 2012. I mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog.
- (1/3) Model Validation and the LLP-(Long Playing Vinyl Record)
- (1/8) Don’t Birnbaumize that Experiment my Friend*
- (1/10) Bad-Faith Assertions of Conflicts of Interest?*
- (1/13) U-PHIL: “So you want to do a philosophical analysis?”
- (1/14) “You May Believe You are a Bayesian But You Are Probably Wrong” (Extract from Senn RMM article)
- (1/15) U-Phil Mayo Philosophizes on Stephen Senn(0): “How Can We Culivate Senn’s-Ability?”
- (1/17) “Philosophy of Statistics”: Nelder on Lindley
- (1/19) RMM-6 Special Volume on Stat Sci Meets Phil Sci (Sprenger)
- (1/22) U-Phil: Stephen Senn (1): C. Robert, A. Jaffe, and Mayo (brief remarks)
- (1/23) U-Phil: Stephen Senn (2): Andrew Gelman
- (1/24) U-Phil (3): Stephen Senn on Stephen Senn!
- (1/26) Updating & Downdating: One of the Pieces to Pick up
- (1/29) No-Pain Philosophy: Skepticism, Rationality, Popper, and All That: First of 3 Parts
This new, once-a-month, feature began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, 2014. I will count U-Phil’s on a single paper as one of the three I highlight (else I’d have to choose between them). I will comment on 3-year old posts from time to time.
This Memory Lane needs a bit of explanation. This blog began largely as a forum to discuss a set of contributions from a conference I organized (with A. Spanos and J. Miller*) “Statistical Science and Philosophy of Science: Where Do (Should) They meet?”at the London School of Economics, Center for the Philosophy of Natural and Social Science, CPNSS, in June 2010 (where I am a visitor). Additional papers grew out of conversations initiated soon after (with Andrew Gelman and Larry Wasserman). The conference site is here. My reflections in this general arena (Sept. 26, 2012) are here.
As articles appeared in a special topic of the on-line journal, Rationality, Markets and Morals (RMM), edited by Max Albert[i]—also a conference participant —I would announce an open invitation to readers to take a couple of weeks to write an extended comment. Each “U-Phil”–which stands for “U philosophize”- was a contribution to this activity. I plan to go back to that exercise at some point. Generally I would give a “deconstruction” of the paper first, followed by U-Phils, and then the author gave responses to U-Phils and me as they wished. You can readily search this blog for all the U-Phils and deconstructions**.
I was also keeping a list of issues that we either haven’t taken up, or need to return to. One example here is: Bayesian updating and down dating. Further notes about the origins of this blog are here. I recommend everyone reread Senn’s paper.**
For newcomers, here’s your chance to catch-up; for old timers,this is philosophy: rereading is essential!
[i] Along with Hartmut Kliemt and Bernd Lahno.
*For a full list of collaborators, sponsors, logisticians, and related collaborations, see the conference page. The full list of speakers is found there as well.
**The U-Phil exchange between Mayo and Senn was published in the same special topic of RIMM. But I still wish to know how we can cultivate “Senn’s-ability.” We could continue that activity as well, perhaps.
Previous 3 YEAR MEMORY LANES:
- 10/01 Oy Faye! What are the odds of not conflating simple conditional probability and likelihood with Bayesian success stories?
- 10/05 Diederik Stapel hired to teach “social philosophy” because students got tired of success stories… or something (rejected post)
- 10/07 A (Jan 14, 2014) interview with Sir David Cox by “Statistics Views”
- 10/10 BREAKING THE (Royall) LAW! (of likelihood) (C)
- 10/14 Gelman recognizes his error-statistical (Bayesian) foundations
- 10/18 PhilStat/Law: Nathan Schachtman: Acknowledging Multiple Comparisons in Statistical Analysis: Courts Can and Must
- 10/22 September 2014: Blog Contents
- 10/25 3 YEARS AGO: MONTHLY MEMORY LANE
- 10/26 To Quarantine or not to Quarantine?: Science & Policy in the time of Ebola
- 10/31 Oxford Gaol: Statistical Bogeymen
- 11/01 Philosophy of Science Assoc. (PSA) symposium on Philosophy of Statistics in the Higgs Experiments “How Many Sigmas to Discovery?”
- 11/09 “Statistical Flukes, the Higgs Discovery, and 5 Sigma” at the PSA
- 11/11 The Amazing Randi’s Million Dollar Challenge
- 11/12 A biased report of the probability of a statistical fluke: Is it cheating?
- 11/15 Why the Law of Likelihood is bankrupt–as an account of evidence
- 11/18 Lucien Le Cam: “The Bayesians Hold the Magic”
- 11/20 Erich Lehmann: Statistician and Poet
- 11/22 Msc Kvetch: “You are a Medical Statistic”, or “How Medical Care Is Being Corrupted”
- 11/25 How likelihoodists exaggerate evidence from statistical tests
- 11/30 3 YEARS AGO: MONTHLY (Nov.) MEMORY LANE
- 12/02 My Rutgers Seminar: tomorrow, December 3, on philosophy of statistics
- 12/04 “Probing with Severity: Beyond Bayesian Probabilism and Frequentist Performance” (Dec 3 Seminar slides)
- 12/06 How power morcellators inadvertently spread uterine cancer
- 12/11 Msc. Kvetch: What does it mean for a battle to be “lost by the media”?
- 12/13 S. Stanley Young: Are there mortality co-benefits to the Clean Power Plan? It depends. (Guest Post)
- 12/17 Announcing Kent Staley’s new book, An Introduction to the Philosophy of Science (CUP)
- 12/21 Derailment: Faking Science: A true story of academic fraud, by Diederik Stapel (translated into English)
- 12/23 All I want for Chrismukkah is that critics & “reformers” quit howlers of testing (after 3 yrs of blogging)! So here’s Aris Spanos “Talking Back!”
- 12/26 3 YEARS AGO: MONTHLY (Dec.) MEMORY LANE
- 12/29 To raise the power of a test is to lower (not raise) the “hurdle” for rejecting the null (Ziliac and McCloskey 3 years on)
- 12/31 Midnight With Birnbaum (Happy New Year)
* Compiled by Jean A. Miller
MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: December 2011. I mark in red 3 posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog.*
- (12/2) Getting Credit (or blame) for Something You Don’t Deserve (and first honorable mention [to C. Robert])
- (12/6) Putting the Brakes on the Breakthrough Part 1*
- (12/7) Part II: Breaking Through the Breakthrough*
- (12/11) Irony and Bad Faith: Deconstructing Bayesians
- (12/19) Deconstructing and Deep-Drilling* 2
- (12/22) The 3 stages of the acceptance of novel truths
- (12/25) Little Bit of Blog Log-ic
- (12/26) Contributed Deconstructions: Irony & Bad Faith 3
- (12/29) JIM BERGER ON JIM BERGER!
- (12/31) Midnight With Birnbaum (note this will be the first year I can greet Birnbaum with my published result!)
*I announced this new, once-a-month feature at the blog’s 3-year anniversary. I will repost and comment on one of the 3-year old posts from time to time. [I’ve yet to repost and comment on the one from Oct. 2011, but will very shortly.] For newcomers, here’s your chance to catch-up; for old timers,this is philosophy: rereading is essential!
Previous 3 YEAR MEMORY LANES:
MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: October 2011 (I mark in red 3 posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog*)
- (10/3) Part 2 Prionvac: The Will to Understand Power
- (10/4) Part 3 Prionvac: How the Reformers Should Have done Their Job
- (10/5) Formaldehyde Hearing: How to Tell the Truth With Statistically Insignificant Results
- (10/7) Blogging the (Strong) Likelihood Principle
- (10/10) RMM-1: Special Volume on Stat Sci Meets Phil Sci
- (10/10) Objectivity 1: Will the Real Junk Science Please Stand Up?
- (10/13) Objectivity #2: The “Dirty Hands” Argument for Ethics in Evidence
- (10/14) King Tut Includes ErrorStatistics in Top 50 Statblogs!
- (10/16) Objectivity #3: Clean(er) Hands With Metastatistcs
- (10/19) RMM-2: “A Conversation Between Sir David Cox & D.G. Mayo”
- (10/20) Blogging the Likelihood Principle #2: Solitary Fishing: SLP Violations
- (10/22) The Will to Understand Power: Neyman’s Nursery (NN1)
- (10/28) RMM-3: Special Volume on Stat Scie Meets Phl Sci (Hendry)
- (10/30) Background Knowledge: Not to Quantify, but to Avoid Being Misled by, Subjective Beliefs
- (10/31) Oxford Gaol: Statistical Bogeymen
*I indicated I’d begin this new, once-a-month feature at the 3-year anniversary. I will repost and comment on one each month. (I might repost others that I do not comment on, as Oct. 31, 2014). For newcomers, here’s your chance to catch-up; for old timers, this is philosophy: rereading is essential!
- (9/30) Letter from George (Barnard)
- (9/27) Should a “Fictionfactory” peepshow be barred from a festival on “Truth and Reality”? Diederik Stapel says no (rejected post)
- (9/23) G.A. Barnard: The Bayesian “catch-all” factor: probability vs likelihood
- (9/21) Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”
- (9/18) Uncle Sam wants YOU to help with scientific reproducibility!
- (9/15) A crucial missing piece in the Pistorius trial? (2): my answer (Rejected Post)
- (9/12) “The Supernal Powers Withhold Their Hands And Let Me Alone”: C.S. Peirce
- (9/6) Statistical Science: The Likelihood Principle issue is out…!
- (9/4) All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy Contents-3 years on
- (9/3) 3 in blog years: Sept 3 is 3rd anniversary of errorstatistics.com
Blog Contents: June and July 2014*
(6/5) Stephen Senn: Blood Simple? The complicated and controversial world of bioequivalence (guest post)
(6/9) “The medical press must become irrelevant to publication of clinical trials.”
(6/11) A. Spanos: “Recurring controversies about P values and confidence intervals revisited”
(6/14) “Statistical Science and Philosophy of Science: where should they meet?”
(6/21) Big Bayes Stories? (draft ii)
(6/25) Blog Contents: May 2014
(6/28) Sir David Hendry Gets Lifetime Achievement Award
BLOG Contents: March and April 2014
Compiled by Jean Miller and Nicole Jinn
(3/1) Cosma Shalizi gets tenure (at last!) (metastat announcement)
(3/2) Significance tests and frequentist principles of evidence: Phil6334 Day #6
(3/3) Capitalizing on Chance (ii)
(3/4) Power, power everywhere–(it) may not be what you think! [illustration]
Error Statistics Philosophy: 2013
Organized by Nicole Jinn & Jean Anne Miller*
(1/2) Severity as a ‘Metastatistical’ Assessment
(1/4) Severity Calculator
(1/6) Guest post: Bad Pharma? (S. Senn)
(1/9) RCTs, skeptics, and evidence-based policy
(1/10) James M. Buchanan
(1/11) Aris Spanos: James M. Buchanan: a scholar, teacher and friend
(1/12) Error Statistics Blog: Table of Contents
(1/15) Ontology & Methodology: Second call for Abstracts, Papers
(1/18) New Kvetch/PhilStock
(1/19) Saturday Night Brainstorming and Task Forces: (2013) TFSI on NHST
(1/22) New PhilStock
(1/23) P-values as posterior odds?
(1/26) Coming up: December U-Phil Contributions….
(1/27) U-Phil: S. Fletcher & N.Jinn
(1/30) U-Phil: J. A. Miller: Blogging the SLP
(2/2) U-Phil: Ton o’ Bricks
(2/4) January Palindrome Winner
(2/6) Mark Chang (now) gets it right about circularity
(2/8) From Gelman’s blog: philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics
(2/9) New kvetch: Filly Fury
(2/10) U-PHIL: Gandenberger & Hennig: Blogging Birnbaum’s Proof
(2/11) U-Phil: Mayo’s response to Hennig and Gandenberger
(2/13) Statistics as a Counter to Heavyweights…who wrote this?
(2/16) Fisher and Neyman after anger management?
(2/17) R. A. Fisher: how an outsider revolutionized statistics
(2/20) Fisher: from ‘Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood’
(2/23) Stephen Senn: Also Smith and Jones
(2/26) PhilStock: DO < $70
(2/26) Statistically speaking… Continue reading
- (10/3) Will the Real Junk Science Please Stand Up? (critical thinking)
- (10/5) Was Janina Hosiasson pulling Harold Jeffreys’ leg?
- (10/9) Bad statistics: crime or free speech (II)? Harkonen update: Phil Stat / Law /Stock
- (10/12) Sir David Cox: a comment on the post, “Was Hosiasson pulling Jeffreys’ leg?”
- (10/19) Blog Contents: September 2013
- (10/19) Bayesian Confirmation Philosophy and the Tacking Paradox (iv)*
- (10/25) Bayesian confirmation theory: example from last post…
- (10/26) Comedy hour at the Bayesian (epistemology) retreat: highly probable vs highly probed (vs what ?)
- (10/31) WHIPPING BOYS AND WITCH HUNTERS
- (11/02) Oxford Gaol: Statistical Bogeymen
- (11/04) Forthcoming paper on the strong likelihood principle
- (11/09) Null Effects and Replication
- (11/09) Beware of questionable front page articles warning you to beware of questionable front page articles (iii)
- (11/13) T. Kepler: “Trouble with ‘Trouble at the Lab’?” (guest post)
- (11/16) PhilStock: No-pain bull
- (11/16) S. Stanley Young: More Trouble with ‘Trouble in the Lab’ (Guest post)
- (11/18) Lucien Le Cam: “The Bayesians hold the Magic”
- (11/20) Erich Lehmann: Statistician and Poet
- (11/23) Probability that it is a statistical fluke [i]
- (11/27) “The probability that it be a statistical fluke” [iia]
- (11/30) Saturday night comedy from a Bayesian diary (rejected post, see link)
*compiled by N. Jinn & J. Miller