Metablog

All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 9 years on

Posted on September 7, 2020 by Mayo

Dear Reader: I began this blog 9 years ago (Sept. 3, 2011)! A double celebration is taking place at the Elbar Room tonight (a smaller one was held earlier in the week), both for the blog and the 2 year anniversary of the physical appearance of my book: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars [SIST] (CUP, 2018). A special rush edition made an appearance on Sept 3, 2018 in time for the RSS meeting in Cardiff. If you’re in the neighborhood, stop by for some Elba Grease.

Many of the discussions in the book were importantly influenced (corrected and improved) by reader’s comments on the blog over the years. I posted several excerpts and mementos from SIST here. I thank readers for their input. Readers should look up the topics in SIST on this blog to check out the comments, and see how ideas were developed, corrected and turned into “excursions” in SIST. Continue reading →

Categories: blog contents, Metablog

All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 8 years on

Posted on September 5, 2019 by Mayo

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Error Statistics Philosophy: Blog Contents (8 years)
By: D. G. Mayo

Dear Reader: I began this blog 8 years ago (Sept. 3, 2011)! A double celebration is taking place at the Elbar Room Friday evening (a smaller one was held earlier in the week), both for the blog and the 1 year anniversary of the physical appearance of my book: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars [SIST] (CUP). A special rush edition made an appearance on Sept 3, 2018 in time for the RSS meeting in Cardiff. If you’re in the neighborhood, stop by for some Elba Grease.

Ship Statinfasst made its most recent journey at the Summer Seminar for Phil Stat from July 28-Aug 11, co-directed with Aris Spanos. It was one of the main events that occupied my time the past academic year, from the planning, advertising and running. We had 15 fantastic faculty and post-doc participants (from 55 applicants), and plan to continue the movement to incorporate PhilStat in philosophy and methodology, both in teaching and research. You can find slides from the Seminar (zoom videos, including those of special invited speakers, to come) on SummerSeminarPhilStat.com. Slides and other materials from the Spring Seminar co-taught with Aris Spanos (and cross-listed with Economics) can be found on this blog here.

Continue reading →

Categories: 8 year memory lane, blog contents, Metablog

All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 7 years on

Posted on September 22, 2018 by Mayo

Error Statistics Philosophy: Blog Contents (7 years) [i]
By: D. G. Mayo

Dear Reader: I began this blog 7 years ago (Sept. 3, 2011)! A big celebration is taking place at the Elbar Room this evening, both for the blog and the appearance of my new book: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars (CUP). While a special rush edition made an appearance on Sept 3, in time for the RSS meeting in Cardiff, it was decided to hold off on the festivities until copies of the book were officially available (yesterday)! If you’re in the neighborhood, stop by for some Elba Grease

.

Many of the discussions in the book were importantly influenced (corrected and improved) by reader’s comments on the blog over the years. I thank readers for their input. Please peruse the offerings below, taking advantage of the discussions by guest posters and readers! I posted the first 3 sections of Tour I (in Excursion i) here, here, and here.
This blog will return to life, although I’m not yet sure of exactly what form it will take. Ideas are welcome. The tone of a book differs from a blog, so we’ll have to see what voice emerges here.

Sincerely,

D. Mayo Continue reading →

Categories: 3-year memory lane, 4 years ago!, blog contents, Metablog

All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 6 years on

Posted on September 2, 2017 by Mayo

D.G. Mayo with her blogging typewriter

Error Statistics Philosophy: Blog Contents (6 years) [i]
By: D. G. Mayo

Dear Reader: It’s hard to believe I’ve been blogging for six years (since Sept. 3, 2011)! A big celebration is taking place at the Elbar Room this evening. If you’re in the neighborhood, stop by for some Elba Grease.

Amazingly, this old typewriter not only still works; one of the whiz kids on Elba managed to bluetooth it to go directly from my typewriter onto the blog (I never got used to computer keyboards.) I still must travel to London to get replacement ribbons for this klunker.

Please peruse the offerings below, and take advantage of some of the super contributions and discussions by guest posters and readers! I don’t know how much longer I’ll continue blogging–I’ve had to cut back this past year (sorry)–but at least until the publication of my book “Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars” (CUP, 2018). After that I plan to run conferences, workshops, and ashrams on PhilStat and PhilSci, and I will invite readers to take part! Keep reading and commenting. Sincerely, D. Mayo

.

September 2011

(9/3) Frequentists in Exile: The Purpose of this Blog
(9/3) Overheard at the comedy hour at the Bayesian retreat
(9/4) Drilling Rule #1
(9/9) Kuru
(9/13) In Exile, Clinging to Old Ideas?
.
(9/15) SF conferences & E. Lehmann
(9/16) Getting It Right But for the Wrong Reason
(9/20) A Highly Anomalous Event
(9/23) LUCKY 13 (Critcisms)
(9/26) Whipping Boys and Witch Hunters
(9/29) Part 1: Imaginary scientist at an imaginary company, Prionvac, and an imaginary reformer

October 2011 Continue reading →

Categories: blog contents, Metablog

All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 5 years on

Posted on September 3, 2016 by Mayo

D.G. Mayo with her blogging typewriter

Error Statistics Philosophy: Blog Contents (5 years) [i]
By: D. G. Mayo

Dear Reader: It’s hard to believe I’ve been blogging for five years (since Sept. 3, 2011)! A big celebration is taking place at the Elbar Room this evening. If you’re in the neighborhood, stop by for some Elba Grease.

Amazingly, this old typewriter not only still works; one of the whiz kids on Elba managed to bluetooth it to go directly from my typewriter onto the blog (I never got used to computer keyboards.) I still must travel to London to get replacement ribbons for this klunker.

Please peruse the offerings below, and take advantage of some of the super contributions and discussions by guest posters and readers! I don’t know how much longer I’ll continue blogging, but at least until the publication of my book on statistical inference. After that I plan to run conferences, workshops, and ashrams on PhilStat and PhilSci, and will invite readers to take part! Keep reading and commenting. Sincerely, D. Mayo

.

September 2011

(9/3) Frequentists in Exile: The Purpose of this Blog
(9/3) Overheard at the comedy hour at the Bayesian retreat
(9/4) Drilling Rule #1
(9/9) Kuru
(9/13) In Exile, Clinging to Old Ideas?
.
(9/15) SF conferences & E. Lehmann
(9/16) Getting It Right But for the Wrong Reason
(9/20) A Highly Anomalous Event
(9/23) LUCKY 13 (Critcisms)
(9/26) Whipping Boys and Witch Hunters
(9/29) Part 1: Imaginary scientist at an imaginary company, Prionvac, and an imaginary reformer

Continue reading →

Categories: blog contents, Metablog, Statistics

Some bloglinks for my LSE talk tomorrow: “The Statistical Replication Crisis: Paradoxes and Scapegoats”

Posted on May 9, 2016 by Mayo

In my Popper talk ~~tomorrow~~ today (in London), I will discuss topics in philosophy of statistics in relation to: the 2016 ASA document on P-values, and recent replication research in psychology. For readers interested in links from this blog, see:

I. My commentary on the ASA document on P-values (with links to the ASA document):

“Don’t Throw Out the Error Control Baby with the Bad Statistics Bathwater”

“A Small P-value Indicates that the Results are Due to Chance Alone: Fallacious or not: More on the ASA P-value Doc”

“P-Value Madness: A Puzzle About the Latest Test Ban, or ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’”

II. Posts on replication research in psychology: Continue reading →

Categories: Metablog, P-values, replication research, reproducibility, Statistics

All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 4.5 years on

Posted on March 22, 2016 by Mayo

D.G. Mayo with her blogging typewriter

Error Statistics Philosophy: Blog Contents (4.5 years)
By: D. G. Mayo [i]

Dear Reader: It’s hard to believe I’ve been blogging for 4 and a half years (since Sept. 3, 2011)! A big celebration is taking place at the Elbar Room as I type this. Please peruse the offerings below, and take advantage of some of the super contributions and discussions by guest posters and readers! I don’t know how much longer I’ll continue blogging, but at least until the publication of my my book, “How to Tell What’s True About Statistical Inference.” After that I plan to run conferences, workshops, and ashrams on PhilStat and PhilSci, and will invite readers to take part! Keep reading and commenting. Sincerely, D. Mayo

September 2011

(9/3) Frequentists in Exile: The Purpose of this Blog
(9/3) Overheard at the comedy hour at the Bayesian retreat
(9/4) Drilling Rule #1
(9/9) Kuru
(9/13) In Exile, Clinging to Old Ideas?
.
(9/15) SF conferences & E. Lehmann
(9/16) Getting It Right But for the Wrong Reason
(9/20) A Highly Anomalous Event
(9/23) LUCKY 13 (Critcisms)
(9/26) Whipping Boys and Witch Hunters
(9/29) Part 1: Imaginary scientist at an imaginary company, Prionvac, and an imaginary reformer

Continue reading →

Categories: blog contents, Metablog, Statistics

All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 4 years on

Posted on September 5, 2015 by Mayo

D.G. Mayo with her blogging typewriter

Error Statistics Philosophy: Blog Contents (4 years)
By: D. G. Mayo [i]

Dear Reader: It’s hard to believe I’ve been blogging for 4 whole years (as of Sept. 3, 2015)! A big celebration is taking place at the Elbar Room as I type this. (Remember the 1 year anniversary here? Remember that hideous blogspot? Oy!) Please peruse the offerings below, and take advantage of some of the super contributions and discussions by readers! I don’t know how much longer I’ll continue blogging; in the past 6 months I’ve mostly been focusing on completing my book, “How to Tell What’s True About Statistical Inference.” I plan to experiment with some new ideas and novel pursuits in the coming months. Stay tuned, and thanks for reading! Best Wishes, D. Mayo

September 2011

(9/3) Frequentists in Exile: The Purpose of this Blog
(9/3) Overheard at the comedy hour at the Bayesian retreat
(9/4) Drilling Rule #1
(9/9) Kuru
(9/13) In Exile, Clinging to Old Ideas?
.
(9/15) SF conferences & E. Lehmann
(9/16) Getting It Right But for the Wrong Reason
(9/20) A Highly Anomalous Event
(9/23) LUCKY 13 (Critcisms)
(9/26) Whipping Boys and Witch Hunters
(9/29) Part 1: Imaginary scientist at an imaginary company, Prionvac, and an imaginary reformer

October 2011

(10/3) Part 2 Prionvac: The Will to Understand Power
(10/4) Part 3 Prionvac: How the Reformers Should Have done Their Job
(10/5) Formaldehyde Hearing: How to Tell the Truth With Statistically Insignificant Results
(10/7) Blogging the (Strong) Likelihood Principle
(10/10) RMM-1: Special Volume on Stat Sci Meets Phil Sci
Dirty Hands
(10/10) Objectivity 1: Will the Real Junk Science Please Stand Up?
(10/13) Objectivity #2: The “Dirty Hands” Argument for Ethics in Evidence
(10/14) King Tut Includes ErrorStatistics in Top 50 Statblogs!
(10/16) Objectivity #3: Clean(er) Hands With Metastatistcs
(10/19) RMM-2: “A Conversation Between Sir David Cox & D.G. Mayo
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(10/20) Blogging the Likelihood Principle #2: Solitary Fishing: SLP Violations
(10/22) The Will to Understand Power: Neyman’s Nursery (NN1)
(10/28) RMM-3: Special Volume on Stat Scie Meets Phl Sci (Hendry)
(10/30) Background Knowledge: Not to Quantify, but to Avoid Being Misled by, Subjective Beliefs
(10/31) Oxford Gaol: Statistical Bogeymen

November 2011

(11/1) RMM-4: Special Volume on Stat Scie Meets Phil Sci (Spanos)
(11/3) Who is Really Doing the Work?*
(11/5) Skeleton Key and Skeletal Points for (Esteemed) Ghost Guest
(11/9) Neyman’s Nursery 2: Power and Severity [Continuation of Oct. 22 Post]
(11/12) Neyman’s Nursery (NN) 3: SHPOWER vs POWER
(11/15) Logic Takes a Bit of a Hit!: (NN 4) Continuing: Shpower (“observed” power) vs Power
Elbar grease
(11/18) Neyman’s Nursery (NN5): Final Post
(11/21) RMM-5: Special Volume on Stat Scie Meets Phil Sci (Wasserman)
(11/23) Elbar Grease: Return to the Comedy Hour at the Bayesian Retreat
(11/28) The UN Charter: double-counting and data snooping
(11/29) If you try sometime, you find you get what you need!

December 2011

(12/2) Getting Credit (or blame) for Something You Don’t Deserve (and first honorable mention)
(12/6) Putting the Brakes on the Breakthrough Part 1*
Brakes on breakthrough

(12/7) Part II: Breaking Through the Breakthrough*
(12/11) Irony and Bad Faith: Deconstructing Bayesians
.
(12/19) Deconstructing and Deep-Drilling* 2
(12/22) The 3 stages of the acceptance of novel truths
(12/25) Little Bit of Blog Log-ic
(12/26) Contributed Deconstructions: Irony & Bad Faith 3
midnight w/ Birnbaum.
(12/29) JIM BERGER ON JIM BERGER!
(12/31) Midnight With Birnbaum

Continue reading →

Categories: blog contents, Metablog, Statistics

All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 3.5 years on

Posted on March 12, 2015 by Mayo

D.G. Mayo with typewriter

Error Statistics Philosophy: Blog Contents (3.5 years)
By: D. G. Mayo [i]

September 2011

(9/3) Frequentists in Exile: The Purpose of this Blog
(9/3) Overheard at the comedy hour at the Bayesian retreat
(9/4) Drilling Rule #1
(9/9) Kuru
(9/13) In Exile, Clinging to Old Ideas?
.
(9/15) SF conferences & E. Lehmann
(9/16) Getting It Right But for the Wrong Reason
(9/20) A Highly Anomalous Event
(9/23) LUCKY 13 (Critcisms)
(9/26) Whipping Boys and Witch Hunters
(9/29) Part 1: Imaginary scientist at an imaginary company, Prionvac, and an imaginary reformer

October 2011

(10/3) Part 2 Prionvac: The Will to Understand Power
(10/4) Part 3 Prionvac: How the Reformers Should Have done Their Job
(10/5) Formaldehyde Hearing: How to Tell the Truth With Statistically Insignificant Results
(10/7) Blogging the (Strong) Likelihood Principle
(10/10) RMM-1: Special Volume on Stat Sci Meets Phil Sci
Dirty Hands
(10/10) Objectivity 1: Will the Real Junk Science Please Stand Up?
(10/13) Objectivity #2: The “Dirty Hands” Argument for Ethics in Evidence
(10/14) King Tut Includes ErrorStatistics in Top 50 Statblogs!
(10/16) Objectivity #3: Clean(er) Hands With Metastatistcs
(10/19) RMM-2: “A Conversation Between Sir David Cox & D.G. Mayo
.
(10/20) Blogging the Likelihood Principle #2: Solitary Fishing: SLP Violations
(10/22) The Will to Understand Power: Neyman’s Nursery (NN1)
(10/28) RMM-3: Special Volume on Stat Scie Meets Phl Sci (Hendry)
(10/30) Background Knowledge: Not to Quantify, but to Avoid Being Misled by, Subjective Beliefs
(10/31) Oxford Gaol: Statistical Bogeymen

Continue reading →

Categories: blog contents, Metablog, Statistics

All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy Contents-3 years on

Posted on September 4, 2014 by Mayo

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Error Statistics Philosophy: Blog Contents
By: D. G. Mayo[i]

Each month, I will mark (in red) 3 relevant posts (from that month 3 yrs ago) for readers wanting to catch-up or review central themes and discussions.

September 2011

(9/3) Frequentists in Exile: The Purpose of this Blog
(9/3) Overheard at the comedy hour at the Bayesian retreat
(9/4) Drilling Rule #1
(9/9) Kuru
(9/13) In Exile, Clinging to Old Ideas?
(9/15) SF conferences & E. Lehmann
(9/16) Getting It Right But for the Wrong Reason
(9/20) A Highly Anomalous Event
(9/23) LUCKY 13 (Critcisms)
(9/26) Whipping Boys and Witch Hunters
(9/29) Part 1: Imaginary scientist at an imaginary company, Prionvac, and an imaginary reformer

October 2011

(10/3) Part 2 Prionvac: The Will to Understand Power
(10/4) Part 3 Prionvac: How the Reformers Should Have done Their Job
(10/5) Formaldehyde Hearing: How to Tell the Truth With Statistically Insignificant Results
(10/7) Blogging the (Strong) Likelihood Principle
(10/10) RMM-1: Special Volume on Stat Sci Meets Phil Sci
(10/10) Objectivity 1: Will the Real Junk Science Please Stand Up?
(10/13) Objectivity #2: The “Dirty Hands” Argument for Ethics in Evidence
(10/14) King Tut Includes ErrorStatistics in Top 50 Statblogs!
(10/16) Objectivity #3: Clean(er) Hands With Metastatistcs
(10/19) RMM-2: “A Conversation Between Sir David Cox & D.G. Mayo
(10/20) Blogging the Likelihood Principle #2: Solitary Fishing: SLP Violations
(10/22) The Will to Understand Power: Neyman’s Nursery (NN1)
(10/28) RMM-3: Special Volume on Stat Scie Meets Phl Sci (Hendry)
(10/30) Background Knowledge: Not to Quantify, but to Avoid Being Misled by, Subjective Beliefs
(10/31) Oxford Gaol: Statistical Bogeymen

November 2011

(11/1) RMM-4: Special Volume on Stat Scie Meets Phil Sci (Spanos)
(11/3) Who is Really Doing the Work?*
(11/5) Skeleton Key and Skeletal Points for (Esteemed) Ghost Guest
(11/9) Neyman’s Nursery 2: Power and Severity [Continuation of Oct. 22 Post]
(11/12) Neyman’s Nursery (NN) 3: SHPOWER vs POWER
(11/15) Logic Takes a Bit of a Hit!: (NN 4) Continuing: Shpower (“observed” power) vs Power
(11/18) Neyman’s Nursery (NN5): Final Post
(11/21) RMM-5: Special Volume on Stat Scie Meets Phil Sci (Wasserman)
(11/23) Elbar Grease: Return to the Comedy Hour at the Bayesian Retreat
(11/28) The UN Charter: double-counting and data snooping
(11/29) If you try sometime, you find you get what you need!

December 2011

(12/2) Getting Credit (or blame) for Something You Don’t Deserve (and first honorable mention)
(12/6) Putting the Brakes on the Breakthrough Part 1*
(12/7) Part II: Breaking Through the Breakthrough*
(12/11) Irony and Bad Faith: Deconstructing Bayesians
(12/19) Deconstructing and Deep-Drilling* 2
(12/22) The 3 stages of the acceptance of novel truths
(12/25) Little Bit of Blog Log-ic
(12/26) Contributed Deconstructions: Irony & Bad Faith 3
(12/29) JIM BERGER ON JIM BERGER!
(12/31) Midnight With Birnbaum

January 2012

(1/3) Model Validation and the LLP-(Long Playing Vinyl Record)
(1/8) Don’t Birnbaumize that Experiment my Friend*
(1/10) Bad-Faith Assertions of Conflicts of Interest?*
(1/13) U-PHIL: “So you want to do a philosophical analysis?”
(1/14) “You May Believe You are a Bayesian But You Are Probably Wrong” (Extract from Senn RMM article)
(1/15) Mayo Philosophizes on Stephen Senn: “How Can We Culivate Senn’s-Ability?”
(1/17) “Philosophy of Statistics”: Nelder on Lindley
(1/19) RMM-6 Special Volume on Stat Sci Meets Phil Sci (Sprenger)
(1/22) U-Phil: Stephen Senn (1): C. Robert, A. Jaffe, and Mayo (brief remarks)
(1/23) U-Phil: Stephen Senn (2): Andrew Gelman
(1/24) U-Phil (3): Stephen Senn on Stephen Senn!
(1/26) Updating & Downdating: One of the Pieces to Pick up
(1/29) No-Pain Philosophy: Skepticism, Rationality, Popper, and All That: First of 3 Parts

February 2012

(2/3) Senn Again (Gelman)
(2/7) When Can Risk-Factor Epidemiology Provide Reliable Tests?
(2/8) Guest Blogger: Interstitial Doubts About the Matrixx (Schachtman)
(2/8) Distortions in the Court? (PhilStat/PhilStock) **Cobb on Zilizk & McCloskey
(2/11) R.A. Fisher: Statistical Methods and Scientific Inference
(2/11) JERZY NEYMAN: Note on an Article by Sir Ronald Fisher
(2/12) E.S. Pearson: Statistical Concepts in Their Relation to Reality
(2/12) Guest Blogger. STEPHEN SENN: Fisher’s alternative to the alternative
(2/15) Guest Blogger. Aris Spanos: The Enduring Legacy of R.A. Fisher
(2/17) Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood
(2/20) Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”? (Rejected Post Feb 20)
(2/22) Intro to Misspecification Testing: Ordering From A Full Diagnostic Menu (part 1)
(2/23) Misspecification Testing: (part 2) A Fallacy of Error “Fixing”
(2/27) Misspecification Testing: (part 3) Subtracting-out effects “on paper”
(2/28) Misspecification Tests: (part 4) and brief concluding remarks

March 2012

(3/2) MetaBlog: March 2, 2012
(3/3) Statistical Science Court?
(3/6) Mayo, Senn, and Wasserman on Gelman’s RMM** Contribution
(3/8) Lifting a piece from Spanos’ contribution* will usefully add to the mix
(3/10) U-PHIL: A Further Comment on Gelman by Christian Henning (UCL, Statistics)
(3/11) Blogologue*
(3/11) RMM-7: Commentary and Response on Senn published: Special Volume on Stat Scie Meets Phil Sci
(3/14) Objectivity (#4) and the “Argument From Discretion”
(3/18) Objectivity (#5): Three Reactions to the Challenge of Objectivity (in inference)
(3/22) Generic Drugs Resistant to Lawsuits
(3/25) The New York Times Goes to War Against Generic Drug Manufacturers: Schactman
(3/26) Announcement: Philosophy of Scientific Experiment Conference
(3/28) Comment on the Barnard and Copas (2002) Empirical Example: Aris Spanos

April 2012

(4/1) Philosophy of Statistics: Retraction Watch, Vol. 1, No. 1
(4/3) History and Philosophy of Evidence-Based Health Care
(4/4) Fallacy of Rejection and the Fallacy of Nouvelle Cuisine
(4/6) Going Where the Data Take Us
(4/9) N. Schachtman: Judge Posner’s Digression on Regression
(4/10) Call for papers: Philosepi?
(4/12) That Promissory Note From Lehmann’s Letter; Schmidt to Speak
(4/15) U-Phil: Deconstructing Dynamic Dutch-Books?
(4/16) A. Spanos: Jerzy Neyman and his Enduring Legacy
(4/17) Earlier U-Phils and Deconstructions
(4/18) Jean Miller: Happy Sweet 16 to EGEK! (Shalizi Review: “We have Ways of Making You Talk”)
(4/21) Jean Miller: Happy Sweet 16 to EGEK #2 (Hasok Chang Review of EGEK)
(4/23) U-Phil: Jon Williamson: Deconstructing Dynamic Dutch Books
(4/25) Matching Numbers Across Philosophies
(4/28) Comedy Hour at the Bayesian Retreat: P-values versus Posteriors

May 2012

(5/1) Stephen Senn: A Paradox of Prior Probabilities
(5/5) Comedy Hour at the Bayesian (Epistemology) Retreat: Highly Probable vs Highly Probed
(5/8) LSE Summer Seminar: Contemporary Problems in Philosophy of Statistics
(5/10) Excerpts from S. Senn’s Letter on “Replication, p-values and Evidence,”
(5/12) Saturday Night Brainstorming & Task Forces: The TFSI on NHST
(5/17) Do CIs Avoid Fallacies of Tests? Reforming the Reformers
(5/20) Betting, Bookies and Bayes: Does it Not Matter?
(5/23) Does the Bayesian Diet Call For Error-Statistical Supplements?
(5/24) An Error-Statistical Philosophy of Evidence (PH500, LSE Seminar)
(5/28) Painting-by-Number #1
(5/31) Metablog: May 31, 2012

June 2012

(6/2) Anything Tests Can do, CIs do Better; CIs Do Anything Better than Tests?* (reforming the reformers cont.)
(6/6) Review of Error and Inference by C. Hennig
(6/9) U-Phil: Is the Use of Power* Open to a Power Paradox?
(6/12) CMU Workshop on Foundations for Ockham’s Razor
(6/14) Answer to the Homework & a New Exercise
(6/15) Scratch Work for a SEV Homework Problem
(6/17) Repost (5/17/12): Do CIs Avoid Fallacies of Tests? Reforming the Reformers
(6/17) G. Cumming Response: The New Statistics
(6/19) The Error Statistical Philosophy and The Practice of Bayesian Statistics: Comments on Gelman and Shalizi
(6/23) Promissory Note
(6/26) Deviates, Sloths, and Exiles: Philosophical Remarks on the Ockham’s Razor Workshop*
(6/29) Further Reflections on Simplicity: Mechanisms

July 2012

(7/1) PhilStatLaw: “Let’s Require Health Claims to Be ‘Evidence Based’” (Schachtman)
(7/2) More from the Foundations of Simplicity Workshop*
(7/3) Elliott Sober Responds on Foundations of Simplicity
(7/4) Comment on Falsification
(7/6) Vladimir Cherkassky Responds on Foundations of Simplicity
(7/8) Metablog: Up and Coming
(7/9) Stephen Senn: Randomization, ratios and rationality: rescuing the randomized clinical trial from its critics
(7/10) PhilStatLaw: Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence (3d ed) on Statistical Significance (Schachtman)
(7/11) Is Particle Physics Bad Science?
(7/12) Dennis Lindley’s “Philosophy of Statistics”
(7/15) Deconstructing Larry Wasserman – it starts like this…
(7/16) Peter Grünwald: Follow-up on Cherkassky’s Comments
(7/19) New Kvetch Posted 7/18/12
(7/21) “Always the last place you look!”
(7/22) Clark Glymour: The Theory of Search Is the Economics of Discovery (part 1)
(7/23) Clark Glymour: The Theory of Search Is the Economics of Discovery (part 2)
(7/27) P-values as Frequentist Measures
(7/28) U-PHIL: Deconstructing Larry Wasserman
(7/31) What’s in a Name? (Gelman’s blog)

August 2012

(8/2) Stephen Senn: Fooling the Patient: an Unethical Use of Placebo? (Phil/Stat/Med)
(8/5) A “Bayesian Bear” rejoinder practically writes itself…
(8/6) Bad news bears: Bayesian rejoinder
(8/8) U-PHIL: Aris Spanos on Larry Wasserman
(8/10) U-PHIL: Hennig and Gelman on Wasserman (2011)
(8/11) E.S. Pearson Birthday
(8/11) U-PHIL: Wasserman Replies to Spanos and Hennig
(8/13) U-Phil: (concluding the deconstruction) Wasserman/Mayo
(8/14) Good Scientist Badge of Approval?
(8/16) E.S. Pearson’s Statistical Philosophy
(8/18) A. Spanos: Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics
(8/20) Higgs Boson: Bayesian “Digest and Discussion”
(8/22) Scalar or Technicolor? S. Weinberg, “Why the Higgs?”
(8/25) “Did Higgs Physicists Miss an Opportunity by Not Consulting More With Statisticians?
(8/27) Knowledge/evidence not captured by mathematical prob.
(8/30) Frequentist Pursuit
(8/31) Failing to Apply vs Violating the Likelihood Principle

September 2012

(9/3) After dinner Bayesian comedy hour. …
(9/6) Stephen Senn: The nuisance parameter nuisance
(9/8) Metablog: One-Year Anniversary
(9/8) Return to the comedy hour … (on significance tests)
(9/12) U-Phil (9/25/12) How should “prior information” enter in statistical inference?
(9/15) More on using background info
(9/19) Barnard, background info/intentions
(9/22) Statistics and ESP research (Diaconis)
(9/25) Insevere tests and pseudoscience
(9/26) Levels of Inquiry
(9/29) Stephen Senn: On the (ir)relevance of stopping rules in meta-analysis
(9/30) Letter from George (Barnard)

October 2012

(10/02)PhilStatLaw: Infections in the court
(10/05) Metablog: Rejected posts (blog within a blog)
(10/05) Deconstructing Gelman, Part 1: “A Bayesian wants everybody else to be a non-Bayesian.”
(10/07) Deconstructing Gelman, Part 2: Using prior information
(10/09) Last part (3) of the deconstruction: beauty and background knowledge
(10/12) U-Phils: Hennig and Aktunc on Gelman 2012
(10/13) Mayo Responds to U-Phils on Background Information
(10/15) New Kvetch: race-based academics in Fla
(10/17) RMM-8: New Mayo paper: “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2 (Shallow vs Deep Explorations)”
(10/18) Query
(10/18) Mayo: (first 2 sections) “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2”
(10/20) Mayo: (section 5) “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2”
(10/21) Mayo: (section 6) “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2”
(10/22) Mayo: (section 7) “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2”
(10/24) Announcement: Ontology and Methodology (Virginia Tech)
(10/25) New rejected post: phil faux
(10/27) New rejected post: “Are you butter off now?”
(10/29) Reblogging: Oxford Gaol: Statistical Bogeymen
(10/29) Type 1 and 2 errors: Frankenstorm
(10/30) Guest Post: Greg Gandenberger, “Evidential Meaning and Methods of Inference”
(10/31) U-Phil: Blogging the Likelihood Principle: New Summary

November 2012

(11/04) PhilStat: So you’re looking for a Ph.D. dissertation topic?
(11/07) Seminars at the London School of Economics: Contemporary Problems in Philosophy of Statistics
(11/10) Bad news bears: ‘Bayesian bear’ rejoinder – reblog
(11/12) new rejected post: kvetch (and query)
(11/14) continuing the comments. …
(11/16) Philosophy of Science Association (PSA) 2012 Program
(11/18) What is Bayesian/Frequentist Inference? (from the normal deviate)
(11/18) New kvetch/PhilStock: Rapiscan Scam
(11/19) Comments on Wasserman’s “what is Bayesian/frequentist inference?”
(11/21) Irony and Bad Faith: Deconstructing Bayesians – reblog
(11/23) Announcement: 28 November: My Seminar at the LSE (Contemporary PhilStat)
(11/25) Likelihood Links [for 28 Nov. Seminar and Current U-Phil]
(11/28) Blogging Birnbaum: on Statistical Methods in Scientific Inference
(11/30) Error Statistics (brief overview)

December 2012

(12/2) Normal Deviate’s blog on false discovery rates
(12/2) Statistical Science meets Philosophy of Science
(12/3) Mayo Commentary on Gelman & Robert’s paper
(12/6) Announcement: U-Phil Extension: Blogging the Likelihood Principle
(12/7) Nov. Palindrome Winner: Kepler
(12/8) Don’t Birnbaumize that experiment my friend*–updated reblog
(12/11) Announcement: Prof. Stephen Senn to lead LSE grad seminar: 12-12-12
(12/11) Mayo on S. Senn: “How Can We Cultivate Senn’s-Ability?”
(12/13) “Bad statistics”: crime of free speech?
(12/14) PhilStat/Law (“Bad Statistics” Cont.)
(12/17) PhilStat/Law/Stock: multiplicity and duplicity
(12/19) PhilStat/Law/Stock: more on “bad statistics”: Schachtman
(12/21) Rejected Post: Clinical Trial Statistics Doomed by Mayan Apocalypse?
(12/22) Msc kvetch: unfair but lawful discrimination (vs the irresistibly attractive)
(12/24) 13 well-worn criticisms of significance tests (and how to avoid them)
(12/27) 3 msc kvetches on the blog bagel circuit
(12/30) An established probability theory for hair comparison?“–is not — and never was”
(12/31) Midnight with Birnbaum-reblog

January 2013

(1/2) Severity as a ‘Metastatistical’ Assessment
(1/4) Severity Calculator
(1/6) Guest post: Bad Pharma? (S. Senn)
(1/9) RCTs, skeptics, and evidence-based policy
(1/10) James M. Buchanan
(1/11) Aris Spanos: James M. Buchanan: a scholar, teacher and friend
(1/12) Error Statistics Blog: Table of Contents
(1/15) Ontology & Methodology: Second call for Abstracts, Papers
(1/18) New Kvetch/PhilStock
(1/19) Saturday Night Brainstorming and Task Forces: (2013) TFSI on NHST
(1/22) New PhilStock
(1/23) P-values as posterior odds?
(1/26) Coming up: December U-Phil Contributions….
(1/27) U-Phil: S. Fletcher & N.Jinn
(1/30) U-Phil: J. A. Miller: Blogging the SLP

February 2013

(2/2) U-Phil: Ton o’ Bricks
(2/4) January Palindrome Winner
(2/6) Mark Chang (now) gets it right about circularity
(2/8) From Gelman’s blog: philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics
(2/9) New kvetch: Filly Fury
(2/10) U-PHIL: Gandenberger & Hennig: Blogging Birnbaum’s Proof
(2/11) U-Phil: Mayo’s response to Hennig and Gandenberger
(2/13) Statistics as a Counter to Heavyweights…who wrote this?
(2/16) Fisher and Neyman after anger management?
(2/17) R. A. Fisher: how an outsider revolutionized statistics
(2/20) Fisher: from ‘Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood’
(2/23) Stephen Senn: Also Smith and Jones
(2/26) PhilStock: DO < $70
(2/26) Statistically speaking…

March 2013

(3/1) capitalizing on chance
(3/4) Big Data or Pig Data?
(3/7) Stephen Senn: Casting Stones
(3/10) Blog Contents 2013 (Jan & Feb)
(3/11) S. Stanley Young: Scientific Integrity and Transparency
(3/13) Risk-Based Security: Knives and Axes
(3/15) Normal Deviate: Double Misunderstandings About p-values
(3/17) Update on Higgs data analysis: statistical flukes (1)
(3/21) Telling the public why the Higgs particle matters
(3/23) Is NASA suspending public education and outreach?
(3/27) Higgs analysis and statistical flukes (part 2)
(3/31) possible progress on the comedy hour circuit?

April 2013

(4/1) Flawed Science and Stapel: Priming for a Backlash?
(4/4) Guest Post. Kent Staley: On the Five Sigma Standard in Particle Physics
(4/6) Who is allowed to cheat? I.J. Good and that after dinner comedy hour….
(4/10) Statistical flukes (3): triggering the switch to throw out 99.99% of the data
(4/11) O & M Conference (upcoming) and a bit more on triggering from a participant…..
(4/14) Does statistics have an ontology? Does it need one? (draft 2)
(4/19) Stephen Senn: When relevance is irrelevant
(4/22) Majority say no to inflight cell phone use, knives, toy bats, bow and arrows, according to survey
(4/23) PhilStock: Applectomy? (rejected post)
(4/25) Blog Contents 2013 (March)
(4/27) Getting Credit (or blame) for Something You Didn’t Do (BP oil spill, comedy hour)
(4/29) What should philosophers of science do? (falsification, Higgs, statistics, Marilyn)

May 2013

(5/3) Schedule for Ontology & Methodology, 2013
(5/6) Professorships in Scandal?
(5/9) If it’s called the “The High Quality Research Act,” then ….
(5/13) ‘No-Shame’ Psychics Keep Their Predictions Vague: New Rejected post
(5/14) “A sense of security regarding the future of statistical science…” Anon review of Error and Inference
(5/18) Gandenberger on Ontology and Methodology (May 4) Conference: Virginia Tech
(5/19) Mayo: Meanderings on the Onto-Methodology Conference
(5/22) Mayo’s slides from the Onto-Meth conference
(5/24) Gelman sides w/ Neyman over Fisher in relation to a famous blow-up
(5/26) Schachtman: High, Higher, Highest Quality Research Act
(5/27) A.Birnbaum: Statistical Methods in Scientific Inference
(5/29) K. Staley: review of Error & Inference

June 2013

(6/1) Winner of May Palindrome Contest
(6/1) Some statistical dirty laundry
(6/5) Do CIs Avoid Fallacies of Tests? Reforming the Reformers (Reblog 5/17/12):
(6/6) PhilStock: Topsy-Turvy Game
(6/6) Anything Tests Can do, CIs do Better; CIs Do Anything Better than Tests?* (reforming the reformers cont.)
(6/8) Richard Gill: “Integrity or fraud… or just questionable research practices?”
(6/11) Mayo: comment on the repressed memory research
(6/14) P-values can’t be trusted except when used to argue that p-values can’t be trusted!
(6/19) PhilStock: The Great Taper Caper
(6/19) Stanley Young: better p-values through randomization in microarrays
(6/22) What do these share in common: m&ms, limbo stick, ovulation, Dale Carnegie? Sat night potpourri
(6/26) Why I am not a “dualist” in the sense of Sander Greenland
(6/29) Palindrome “contest” contest
(6/30) Blog Contents: mid-year

July 2013

(7/3) Phil/Stat/Law: 50 Shades of gray between error and fraud
(7/6) Bad news bears: ‘Bayesian bear’ rejoinder–reblog mashup
(7/10) PhilStatLaw: Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence (3d ed) on Statistical Significance (Schachtman)
(7/11) Is Particle Physics Bad Science? (memory lane)
(7/13) Professor of Philosophy Resigns over Sexual Misconduct (rejected post)
(7/14) Stephen Senn: Indefinite irrelevance
(7/17) Phil/Stat/Law: What Bayesian prior should a jury have? (Schachtman)
(7/19) Msc Kvetch: A question on the Martin-Zimmerman case we do not hear
(7/20) Guest Post: Larry Laudan. Why Presuming Innocence is Not a Bayesian Prior
(7/23) Background Knowledge: Not to Quantify, But To Avoid Being Misled By, Subjective Beliefs
(7/26) New Version: On the Birnbaum argument for the SLP: Slides for JSM talk

August 2013

(8/1) Blogging (flogging?) the SLP: Response to Reply- Xi’an Robert
(8/5) At the JSM: 2013 International Year of Statistics
(8/6) What did Nate Silver just say? Blogging the JSM
(8/9) 11^th bullet, multiple choice question, and last thoughts on the JSM
(8/11) E.S. Pearson: “Ideas came into my head as I sat on a gate overlooking an experimental blackcurrant plot”
(8/13) Blogging E.S. Pearson’s Statistical Philosophy
(8/15) A. Spanos: Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics
(8/17) Gandenberger: How to Do Philosophy That Matters (guest post)
(8/21) Blog contents: July, 2013
(8/22) PhilStock: Flash Freeze
(8/22) A critical look at “critical thinking”: deduction and induction
(8/28) Is being lonely unnatural for slim particles? A statistical argument
(8/31) Overheard at the comedy hour at the Bayesian retreat-2 years on

September 2013

(9/2) Is Bayesian Inference a Religion?
(9/3) Gelman’s response to my comment on Jaynes
(9/5) Stephen Senn: Open Season (guest post)
(9/7) First blog: “Did you hear the one about the frequentist…”? and “Frequentists in Exile”
(9/10) Peircean Induction and the Error-Correcting Thesis (Part I)
(9/10) (Part 2) Peircean Induction and the Error-Correcting Thesis
(9/12) (Part 3) Peircean Induction and the Error-Correcting Thesis
(9/14) “When Bayesian Inference Shatters” Owhadi, Scovel, and Sullivan (guest post)
(9/18) PhilStock: Bad news is good news on Wall St.
(9/18) How to hire a fraudster chauffeur
(9/22) Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”
(9/23) Barnard’s Birthday: background, likelihood principle, intentions
(9/24) Gelman est efffectivement une erreur statistician
(9/26) Blog Contents: August 2013
(9/29) Highly probable vs highly probed: Bayesian/ error statistical differences

October 2013

(10/3) Will the Real Junk Science Please Stand Up? (critical thinking)
(10/5) Was Janina Hosiasson pulling Harold Jeffreys’ leg?
(10/9) Bad statistics: crime or free speech (II)? Harkonen update: Phil Stat / Law /Stock
(10/12) Sir David Cox: a comment on the post, “Was Hosiasson pulling Jeffreys’ leg?”
(10/19) Blog Contents: September 2013
(10/19) Bayesian Confirmation Philosophy and the Tacking Paradox (iv)*
(10/25) Bayesian confirmation theory: example from last post…
(10/26) Comedy hour at the Bayesian (epistemology) retreat: highly probable vs highly probed (vs what ?)
(10/31) WHIPPING BOYS AND WITCH HUNTERS

November 2013

(11/2) Oxford Gaol: Statistical Bogeymen
(11/4) Forthcoming paper on the strong likelihood principle
(11/9) Null Effects and Replication
(11/9) Beware of questionable front page articles warning you to beware of questionable front page articles (iii)
(11/13) T. Kepler: “Trouble with ‘Trouble at the Lab’?” (guest post)
(11/16) PhilStock: No-pain bull
(11/16) S. Stanley Young: More Trouble with ‘Trouble in the Lab’ (Guest post)
(11/18) Lucien Le Cam: “The Bayesians hold the Magic”
(11/20) Erich Lehmann: Statistician and Poet
(11/23) Probability that it is a statistical fluke [i]
(11/27) “The probability that it be a statistical fluke” [iia]
(11/30) Saturday night comedy at the “Bayesian Boy” diary (rejected post*)

December 2013

(12/3) Stephen Senn: Dawid’s Selection Paradox (guest post)
(12/7) FDA’s New Pharmacovigilance
(12/9) Why ecologists might want to read more philosophy of science (UPDATED)
(12/11) Blog Contents for Oct and Nov 2013
(12/14) The error statistician has a complex, messy, subtle, ingenious piece-meal approach
(12/15) Surprising Facts about Surprising Facts
(12/19) A. Spanos lecture on “Frequentist Hypothesis Testing”
(12/24) U-Phil: Deconstructions [of J. Berger]: Irony & Bad Faith 3
(12/25) “Bad Arguments” (a book by Ali Almossawi)
(12/26) Mascots of Bayesneon statistics (rejected post)
(12/27) Deconstructing Larry Wasserman
(12/28) More on deconstructing Larry Wasserman (Aris Spanos)
(12/28) Wasserman on Wasserman: Update! December 28, 2013
(12/31) Midnight With Birnbaum (Happy New Year)

January 2014

(1/2) Winner of the December 2013 Palindrome Book Contest (Rejected Post)
(1/3) Error Statistics Philosophy: 2013
(1/4) Your 2014 wishing well. …
(1/7) “Philosophy of Statistical Inference and Modeling” New Course: Spring 2014: Mayo and Spanos: (Virginia Tech)
(1/11) Two Severities? (PhilSci and PhilStat)
(1/14) Statistical Science meets Philosophy of Science: blog beginnings
(1/16) Objective/subjective, dirty hands and all that: Gelman/Wasserman blogolog (ii)
(1/18) Sir Harold Jeffreys’ (tail area) one-liner: Sat night comedy [draft ii]
(1/22) Phil6334: “Philosophy of Statistical Inference and Modeling” New Course: Spring 2014: Mayo and Spanos (Virginia Tech) UPDATE: JAN 21
(1/24) Phil 6334: Slides from Day #1: Four Waves in Philosophy of Statistics
(1/25) U-Phil (Phil 6334) How should “prior information” enter in statistical inference?
(1/27) Winner of the January 2014 palindrome contest (rejected post)
(1/29) BOSTON COLLOQUIUM FOR PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE: Revisiting the Foundations of Statistics
(1/31) Phil 6334: Day #2 Slides

February 2014

(2/1) Comedy hour at the Bayesian (epistemology) retreat: highly probable vs highly probed (vs B-boosts)
(2/3) PhilStock: Bad news is bad news on Wall St. (rejected post)
(2/5) “Probabilism as an Obstacle to Statistical Fraud-Busting” (draft iii)
(2/9) Phil6334: Day #3: Feb 6, 2014
(2/10) Is it true that all epistemic principles can only be defended circularly? A Popperian puzzle
(2/12) Phil6334: Popper self-test
(2/13) Phil 6334 Statistical Snow Sculpture
(2/14) January Blog Table of Contents
(2/15) Fisher and Neyman after anger management?
(2/17) R. A. Fisher: how an outsider revolutionized statistics
(2/18) Aris Spanos: The Enduring Legacy of R. A. Fisher
(2/20) R.A. Fisher: ‘Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood’
(2/21) STEPHEN SENN: Fisher’s alternative to the alternative
(2/22) Sir Harold Jeffreys’ (tail-area) one-liner: Sat night comedy [draft ii]
(2/24) Phil6334: February 20, 2014 (Spanos): Day #5
(2/26) Winner of the February 2014 palindrome contest (rejected post)
(2/26) Phil6334: Feb 24, 2014: Induction, Popper and pseudoscience (Day #4)

March 2014

(3/1) Cosma Shalizi gets tenure (at last!) (metastat announcement)
(3/2) Significance tests and frequentist principles of evidence: Phil6334 Day #6
(3/3) Capitalizing on Chance (ii)
(3/4) Power, power everywhere–(it) may not be what you think! [illustration]
(3/8) Msc kvetch: You are fully dressed (even under you clothes)?
(3/8) Fallacy of Rejection and the Fallacy of Nouvelle Cuisine
(3/11) Phil6334 Day #7: Selection effects, the Higgs and 5 sigma, Power
(3/12) Get empowered to detect power howlers
(3/15) New SEV calculator (guest app: Durvasula)
(3/17) Stephen Senn: “Delta Force: To what extent is clinical relevance relevant?” (Guest Post)
(3/19) Power taboos: Statue of Liberty, Senn, Neyman, Carnap, Severity
(3/22) Fallacies of statistics & statistics journalism, and how to avoid them: Summary & Slides Day #8 (Phil 6334)
(3/25) The Unexpected Way Philosophy Majors Are Changing The World Of Business
(3/26) Phil6334:Misspecification Testing: Ordering From A Full Diagnostic Menu (part 1)
(3/28) Severe osteometric probing of skeletal remains: John Byrd
(3/29) Winner of the March 2014 palindrome contest (rejected post)
(3/30) Phil6334: March 26, philosophy of misspecification testing (Day #9 slides)

April 2014

(4/1) Skeptical and enthusiastic Bayesian priors for beliefs about insane asylum renovations at Dept of Homeland Security: I’m skeptical and unenthusiastic
(4/3) Self-referential blogpost (conditionally accepted*)
(4/5) Who is allowed to cheat? I.J. Good and that after dinner comedy hour. . ..
(4/6) Phil6334: Duhem’s Problem, highly probable vs highly probed; Day #9 Slides
(4/8) “Out Damned Pseudoscience: Non-significant results are the new ‘Significant’ results!” (update)
(4/12) “Murder or Coincidence?” Statistical Error in Court: Richard Gill (TEDx video)
(4/14) Phil6334: Notes on Bayesian Inference: Day #11 Slides
(4/16) A. Spanos: Jerzy Neyman and his Enduring Legacy
(4/17) Duality: Confidence intervals and the severity of tests
(4/19) Getting Credit (or blame) for Something You Didn’t Do (BP oil spill)
(4/21) Phil 6334: Foundations of statistics and its consequences: Day#12
(4/23) Phil 6334 Visitor: S. Stanley Young, “Statistics and Scientific Integrity”
(4/26) Reliability and Reproducibility: Fraudulent p-values through multiple testing (and other biases): S. Stanley Young (Phil 6334: Day #13)
(4/30) Able Stats Elba: 3 Palindrome nominees for April! (rejected post)

May 2014

(5/1) Putting the brakes on the breakthrough: An informal look at the argument for the Likelihood Principle
(5/3) You can only become coherent by ‘converting’ non-Bayesianly
(5/6) Winner of April Palindrome contest: Lori Wike
(5/7) A. Spanos: Talking back to the critics using error statistics (Phil6334)
(5/10) Who ya gonna call for statistical Fraudbusting? R.A. Fisher, P-values, and error statistics (again)
(5/15) Scientism and Statisticism: a conference* (i)
(5/17) Deconstructing Andrew Gelman: “A Bayesian wants everybody else to be a non-Bayesian.”
(5/20) The Science Wars & the Statistics Wars: More from the Scientism workshop
(5/25) Blog Table of Contents: March and April 2014
(5/27) Allan Birnbaum, Philosophical Error Statistician: 27 May 1923 – 1 July 1976
(5/31) What have we learned from the Anil Potti training and test data frameworks? Part 1 (draft 2)

June 2014

(6/5) Stephen Senn: Blood Simple? The complicated and controversial world of bioequivalence (guest post)
(6/9) “The medical press must become irrelevant to publication of clinical trials.”
(6/11) A. Spanos: “Recurring controversies about P values and confidence intervals revisited”
(6/14) “Statistical Science and Philosophy of Science: where should they meet?”
(6/21) Big Bayes Stories? (draft ii)
(6/25) Blog Contents: May 2014
(6/28) Sir David Hendry Gets Lifetime Achievement Award
(6/30) Some ironies in the ‘replication crisis’ in social psychology (4^th and final installment)

July 2014

(7/7) Winner of June Palindrome Contest: Lori Wike
(7/8) Higgs Discovery 2 years on (1: “Is particle physics bad science?”)
(7/10) Higgs Discovery 2 years on (2: Higgs analysis and statistical flukes)
(7/14) “P-values overstate the evidence against the null”: legit or fallacious? (revised)
(7/23) Continued:”P-values overstate the evidence against the null”: legit or fallacious?
(7/26) S. Senn: “Responder despondency: myths of personalized medicine” (Guest Post)
(7/31) Roger Berger on Stephen Senn’s “Blood Simple” with a response by Senn (Guest Posts)

August 2014

(08/03) Blogging Boston JSM2014?
(08/05) Neyman, Power, and Severity
(08/06) What did Nate Silver just say? Blogging the JSM 2013
(08/09) Winner of July Palindrome: Manan Shah
(08/09) Blog Contents: June and July 2014
(08/11) Egon Pearson’s Heresy
(08/17) Are P Values Error Probabilities? Or, “It’s the methods, stupid!” (2^nd install)
(08/23) Has Philosophical Superficiality Harmed Science?
(08/29) BREAKING THE LAW! (of likelihood): to keep their fit measures in line (A), (B 2^nd)

September 2014

(9/30) Letter from George (Barnard)
(9/27) Should a “Fictionfactory” peepshow be barred from a festival on “Truth and Reality”? Diederik Stapel says no (rejected post)
(9/23) G.A. Barnard: The Bayesian “catch-all” factor: probability vs likelihood
(9/21) Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”
(9/18) Uncle Sam wants YOU to help with scientific reproducibility!
(9/15) A crucial missing piece in the Pistorius trial? (2): my answer (Rejected Post)
(9/12) “The Supernal Powers Withhold Their Hands And Let Me Alone”: C.S. Peirce
(9/6) Statistical Science: The Likelihood Principle issue is out…!
(9/4) All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy Contents-3 years on
(9/3) 3 in blog years: Sept 3 is 3rd anniversary of errorstatistics.com

[i]Table of Contents compiled by N. Jinn & J. Miller)*

*I thank Jean Miller for her assiduous work on the blog, and all contributors and readers for helping “frequentists in exile” to feel (and truly become) less exiled–wherever they may be!

Categories: blog contents, Metablog, Statistics

Blog Contents: May 2014

Posted on June 25, 2014 by Mayo

May 2014

(5/1) Putting the brakes on the breakthrough: An informal look at the argument for the Likelihood Principle

(5/3) You can only become coherent by ‘converting’ non-Bayesianly

(5/6) Winner of April Palindrome contest: Lori Wike

(5/7) A. Spanos: Talking back to the critics using error statistics (Phil6334)

(5/10) Who ya gonna call for statistical Fraudbusting? R.A. Fisher, P-values, and error statistics (again)

(5/15) Scientism and Statisticism: a conference* (i) Continue reading →

Categories: blog contents, Metablog, Statistics

Self-referential blogpost (conditionally accepted*)

Posted on April 3, 2014 by Mayo

This is a blogpost on a talk (by Jeremy Fox) on blogging that will be live tweeted here at Virginia Tech on Monday April 7, and the moment I post this blog on “Blogging as a Mode of Scientific Communication” it will be tweeted. Live.

Jeremy’s upcoming talk on blogging will be live-tweeted by @FisheriesBlog, 1 pm EDT Apr. 7

Posted on April 3, 2014 by Jeremy Fox

If you like to follow live tweets of talks, you’re in luck: my upcoming Virginia Tech talk on blogging will be live tweeted by Brandon Peoples, a grad student there who co-authors The Fisheries Blog. Follow @FisheriesBlog at 1 pm US Eastern Daylight Time on Monday, April 7 for the live tweets.

Jeremy Fox’s excellent blog, “Dynamic Ecology,” often discusses matters statistical from a perspective in sync with error statistics.

I’ve never been invited to talk about blogging or even to blog about blogging, maybe this is a new trend. I look forward to meeting him (live!).

* Posts that don’t directly pertain to philosophy of science/statistics are placed under “rejected posts” but since this is a metablogpost on a talk on a blog pertaining to statistics it has been “conditionally accepted”, unconditionally, i.e., without conditions.

Categories: Announcement, Metablog

January Blog Table of Contents

Posted on February 14, 2014 by Mayo

January, and the blogging was easy

BLOG Contents: January 2014
Compiled by Jean Miller and Nicole Jinn

(1/2) Winner of the December 2013 Palindrome Book Contest (Rejected Post)
(1/3) Error Statistics Philosophy: 2013
(1/4) Your 2014 wishing well. …
(1/7) “Philosophy of Statistical Inference and Modeling” New Course: Spring 2014: Mayo and Spanos: (Virginia Tech)
(1/11) Two Severities? (PhilSci and PhilStat)
(1/14) Statistical Science meets Philosophy of Science: blog beginnings
(1/16) Objective/subjective, dirty hands and all that: Gelman/Wasserman blogolog (ii)
(1/18) Sir Harold Jeffreys’ (tail area) one-liner: Sat night comedy [draft ii]
(1/22) Phil6334: “Philosophy of Statistical Inference and Modeling” New Course: Spring 2014: Mayo and Spanos (Virginia Tech) UPDATE: JAN 21
(1/24) Phil 6334: Slides from Day #1: Four Waves in Philosophy of Statistics
(1/25) U-Phil (Phil 6334) How should “prior information” enter in statistical inference?
(1/27) Winner of the January 2014 palindrome contest (rejected post)
(1/29) BOSTON COLLOQUIUM FOR PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE: Revisiting the Foundations of Statistics
(1/31) Phil 6334: Day #2 Slides

Categories: Metablog

Blog Contents: September 2013

Posted on October 19, 2013 by Mayo

a tough month in exile

(9/2) Is Bayesian Inference a Religion?

(9/3) Gelman’s response to my comment on Jaynes

(9/5) Stephen Senn: Open Season (guest post)

(9/7) First blog: “Did you hear the one about the frequentist…”? and “Frequentists in Exile”

(9/10) Peircean Induction and the Error-Correcting Thesis (Part I)

(9/10) (Part 2) Peircean Induction and the Error-Correcting Thesis

(9/12) (Part 3) Peircean Induction and the Error-Correcting Thesis

(9/14) “When Bayesian Inference Shatters” Owhadi, Scovel, and Sullivan (guest post)

(9/18) PhilStock: Bad news is good news on Wall St.

(9/18) How to hire a fraudster chauffeur

(9/22) Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”

(9/23) Barnard’s Birthday: background, likelihood principle, intentions

(9/24) Gelman est efffectivement une erreur statistician

(9/26) Blog Contents: August 2013

(9/29) Highly probable vs highly probed: Bayesian/ error statistical differences

Compiled by Nicole Jinn

Categories: Metablog

Blog Contents: mid-year

Posted on June 30, 2013 by Mayo

Error Statistics Philosophy BLOG: Table of Contents 2013 (January-June)*

January 2013

(1/2) Severity as a ‘Metastatistical’ Assessment
(1/4) Severity Calculator
(1/6) Guest post: Bad Pharma? (S. Senn)
(1/9) RCTs, skeptics, and evidence-based policy
(1/10) James M. Buchanan
(1/11) Aris Spanos: James M. Buchanan: a scholar, teacher and friend
(1/12) Error Statistics Blog: Table of Contents
(1/15) Ontology & Methodology: Second call for Abstracts, Papers
(1/18) New Kvetch/PhilStock
(1/19) Saturday Night Brainstorming and Task Forces: (2013) TFSI on NHST
(1/22) New PhilStock
(1/23) P-values as posterior odds?
(1/26) Coming up: December U-Phil Contributions….
(1/27) U-Phil: S. Fletcher & N. Jinn
(1/30) U-Phil: J. A. Miller: Blogging the SLP Continue reading →

Categories: Metablog, Statistics

Blog Contents 2013 (March)

Posted on April 25, 2013 by Mayo

Error Statistics Philosophy Blog: March 2013* (Frequentists in Exile-the blog)**:

(3/1) capitalizing on chance
(3/4) Big Data or Pig Data?
(3/7) Stephen Senn: Casting Stones
(3/10) Blog Contents 2013 (Jan & Feb)
(3/11) S. Stanley Young: Scientific Integrity and Transparency
(3/13) Risk-Based Security: Knives and Axes
(3/15) Normal Deviate: Double Misunderstandings About p-values
(3/17) Update on Higgs data analysis: statistical flukes (1)
(3/21) Telling the public why the Higgs particle matters
(3/23) Is NASA suspending public education and outreach?
(3/27) Higgs analysis and statistical flukes (part 2)
(3/31) possible progress on the comedy hour circuit?

*March was incredibly busy here; I’m saving up several partially-baked posts on draft. Also, while I love this old typewriter, I’ve had to have special keys made for common statistical symbols, and that has delayed me some. I hope people will scan the previous contents starting from the beginning (e.g., with “prionvac“): it’s philosophy, remember, and philosophy has to be reread many times over. January and February 2013 contents are here.

**compiled by Jean Miller and Nicole Jinn.

Categories: Metablog, Statistics

Blog Contents 2013 (Jan & Feb)

Posted on March 10, 2013 by Mayo

Error Statistics Philosophy BLOG:Table of Contents 2013 (Jan & Feb)
Organized by Nicole Jinn & Jean Miller

January 2013

Categories: Metablog

Error Statistics Blog: Table of Contents

Posted on January 12, 2013 by Mayo

Organized by Jean Miller, Nicole Jinn

September 2011

(9/3) Frequentists in Exile: The Purpose of this Blog
(9/3) Overheard at the comedy hour at the Bayesian retreat
(9/4) Drilling Rule #1
(9/9) Kuru
(9/13) In Exile, Clinging to Old Ideas?
(9/15) SF conferences & E. Lehmann
(9/16) Getting It Right But for the Wrong Reason
(9/20) A Highly Anomalous Event
(9/23) LUCKY 13 (Critcisms)
(9/26) Whipping Boys and Witch Hunters
(9/29) Part 1: Imaginary scientist at an imaginary company, Prionvac, and an imaginary reformer Continue reading →

Categories: Metablog, Statistics

3 msc kvetches on the blog bagel circuit

Posted on December 27, 2012 by Mayo

In the past week, I’ve kvetched over at 3 of the blogs on my blog bagel:

I. On an error in Mark Chang’s treatment of my Birnbaum disproof on Xi’an’s Og.
II. On Normal Deviant’s post offering “New Names For Statistical Methods”
III. On a statistics chapter in Nate Silver’s book, discussed over at Gelman’s blog.

You may find some of them, with links, on Rejected Posts.

Categories: Metablog, Rejected Posts, Statistics

continuing the comments….

Posted on November 14, 2012 by Mayo

I’m sure I’m not alone in finding it tedious and confusing to search down through 40+ comments to follow the thread of a discussion, as in the last post (“Bad news bears“), especially while traveling as I am (to the 2012 meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association in San Diego–more on that later in the week). So I’m taking a portion of the last round between a reader and I, and placing it here, opening up a new space for comments. (For the full statements, please see the comments).

(Mayo to Corey*) Cyanabear: … Here’s a query for you:  Suppose you have your dreamt of probabilistic plausibility measure, and think H is a plausible hypothesis and yet a given analysis has done a terrible job in probing H. Maybe they ignore contrary info, use imprecise tools or what have you. How do you use your probabilistic measure to convey you think H is plausible but this evidence is poor grounds for H? Sorry to be dashing…use any example.

*He also goes by Cyan.

(Corey to Mayo): .….Ideally, if I “think H is plausible but this evidence is poor grounds for H,” it’s because I have information warranting that belief. The word “convey” is a bit tricky here. If I’m to communicate the brute fact that I think H is plausible, I’d just state my prior probability for H; likewise, to communicate that I think that the evidence is poor grounds for claiming H, I’d say that the likelihood ratio is 1. But if I’m to *convince* someone of my plausibility assessments, I have to communicate the information that warrants them. (Under certain restrictive assumptions that never hold in practice, other Bayesian agents can treat my posterior distribution as direct evidence. This is Aumann’s agreement theorem.)

New: Mayo to Corey: I’m happy to put aside the agent talk as well as the business of trying to convince. I take it that reporting “the likelihood ratio is 1” conveys roughly that the data have supplied no information as regards H, and one of my big points on this blog is that this does not capture being “a bad test” or “poor evidence”. Recall some of the problems that arose in our recent discussions of ESP experiments (e.g., multiple end points, trying and trying again, ignoring or explaining away disagreements with H, confusing statistical and substantive significance, etc.)

Categories: Metablog, poor tests | Tags: poor tests

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