ASA Task Force on Significance and Replicability

Statisticians Rise Up To Defend (error statistical) Hypothesis Testing

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What is the message conveyed when the board of a professional association X appoints a Task Force intended to dispel the supposition that a position advanced by the Executive Director of association X does not reflect the views of association X on a topic that members of X disagree on? What it says to me is that there is a serious break-down of communication amongst the leadership and membership of that association. So while I’m extremely glad that the ASA appointed the Task Force on Statistical Significance and Replicability in 2019, I’m very sorry that the main reason it was needed was to address concerns that an editorial put forward by the ASA Executive Director (and 2 others) “might be mistakenly interpreted as official ASA policy”. The 2021 Statement of the Task Force (Benjamini et al. 2021) explains:

In 2019 the President of the American Statistical Association (ASA) established a task force to address concerns that a 2019 editorial in The American Statistician (an ASA journal) might be mistakenly interpreted as official ASA policy. (The 2019 editorial recommended eliminating the use of “p < 0.05” and “statistically significant” in statistical analysis.) This document is the statement of the task force…

It’s also too bad that the statement was blocked for nearly a year, and wasn’t shared by the ASA. In contrast to the 2019 editorial, the Task Force on Statistical Significance and Replicability writes that “P -values and significance testing, properly applied and interpreted, are important tools that should not be abandoned”. The full statement is in the The Annals of Applied Statistics, and on my blogpost. It is very welcome that leading statisticians rose up to block the attitude that I describe in this post as Les Stats C’est Moi, diminishing the inclusivity of a variety of methodologies and philosophies among ASA members. Where was Nature, Science and other venues when they had their shot at an article: “Scientists Rise Up in Favor of (error statistical) hypothesis Testing”? Nowhere to be found.

An excellent overview is given by Nathan Schachtman on his law blog here:

A Proclamation from the Task Force on Statistical Significance

June 21st, 2021

The American Statistical Association (ASA) has finally spoken up about statistical significance testing.[1] Sort of.

Back in February of this year, I wrote about the simmering controversy over statistical significance at the ASA.[2] Back in 2016, the ASA issued its guidance paper on p-values and statistical significance, which sought to correct misinterpretations and misrepresentations of “statistical significance.”[3] Lawsuit industry lawyers seized upon the ASA statement to proclaim a new freedom from having to exclude random error.[4] To obtain their ends, however, the plaintiffs’ bar had to distort the ASA guidance in statistically significant ways.

To add to the confusion, in 2019, the ASA Executive Director published an editorial that called for an end to statistical significance testing.[5] Because the editorial lacked disclaimers about whether or not it represented official ASA positions, scientists, statisticians, and lawyers on all sides were fooled into thinking the ASA had gone whole hog.[6] Then ASA President Karen Kafadar stepped into the breach to explain that the Executive Director was not speaking for the ASA.[7]

In November 2019, members of the ASA board of directors (BOD) approved a motion to create a “Task Force on Statistical Significance and Replicability.”[8] Its charge was

“to develop thoughtful principles and practices that the ASA can endorse and share with scientists and journal editors. The task force will be appointed by the ASA President with advice and participation from the ASA BOD. The task force will report to the ASA BOD by November 2020.

The members of the Task Force identified in the motion were:

Linda Young (Nat’l Agricultural Statistics Service & Univ. of Florida; Co-Chair)

Xuming He (Univ. Michigan; Co-Chair)

Yoav Benjamini (Tel Aviv Univ.)

Dick De Veaux (Williams College; ASA Vice President)

Bradley Efron (Stanford Univ.)

Scott Evans (George Washington Univ.; ASA Publications Representative)

Mark Glickman (Harvard Univ.; ASA Section Representative)

Barry Graubard (Nat’l Cancer Instit.)

Xiao-Li Meng (Harvard Univ.)

Vijay Nair (Wells Fargo & Univ. Michigan)

Nancy Reid (Univ. Toronto)

Stephen Stigler (Univ. Chicago)

Stephen Vardeman (Iowa State Univ.)

Chris Wikle (Univ. Missouri)

Tommy Wright (U.S. Census Bureau)

[T]he Taskforce arrived at its recommendations, but curiously, its report did not find a home in an ASA publication. Instead, the “The ASA President’s Task Force Statement on Statistical Significance and Replicability” has now appeared as an “in press” publication at The Annals of Applied Statistics, where Karen Kafadar is the editor in chief. The report is accompanied by an editorial by Kafadar.

You can read the rest of his post here.

Some links from Schachtman’s blog:

[1] Deborah Mayo, “At Long Last! The ASA President’s Task Force Statement on Statistical Significance and Replicability,” Error Statistics (June 20, 2021).

[2] “Falsehood Flies – The ASA 2016 Statement on Statistical Significance” (Feb. 26, 2021).

[3] Ronald L. Wasserstein & Nicole A. Lazar, “The ASA’s Statement on p-Values: Context, Process, and Purpose,” 70 The Am. Statistician 129 (2016); see “The American Statistical Association’s Statement on and of Significance” (March 17, 2016).

[4] “The American Statistical Association Statement on Significance Testing Goes to Court – Part I” (Nov. 13, 2018); “The American Statistical Association Statement on Significance Testing Goes to Court – Part 2” (Mar. 7, 2019).

[5] “Has the American Statistical Association Gone Post-Modern?” (Mar. 24, 2019); “American Statistical Association – Consensus versus Personal Opinion” (Dec. 13, 2019). See also Deborah G. Mayo, “The 2019 ASA Guide to P-values and Statistical Significance: Don’t Say What You Don’t Mean,” Error Statistics Philosophy (June 17, 2019); B. Haig, “The ASA’s 2019 update on P-values and significance,” Error Statistics Philosophy  (July 12, 2019); Brian Tarran, “THE S WORD … and what to do about it,” Significance (Aug. 2019); Donald Macnaughton, “Who Said What,” Significance 47 (Oct. 2019).

[6] Ronald L. Wasserstein, Allen L. Schirm, and Nicole A. Lazar, “Editorial: Moving to a World Beyond ‘p < 0.05’,” 73 Am. Statistician S1, S2 (2019).

[7] Karen Kafadar, “The Year in Review … And More to Come,” AmStat News 3 (Dec. 2019) (emphasis added); see Kafadar, “Statistics & Unintended Consequences,” AmStat News 3,4 (June 2019).

[8] Karen Kafadar, “Task Force on Statistical Significance and Replicability,” ASA Amstat Blog (Feb. 1, 2020).

 

 

Categories: ASA Task Force on Significance and Replicability, Schachtman, significance tests | 9 Comments

At long last! The ASA President’s Task Force Statement on Statistical Significance and Replicability

The ASA President’s Task Force Statement on Statistical Significance and Replicability has finally been published. It found a home in The Annals of Applied Statistics, after everyone else they looked to–including the ASA itself– refused to publish it.  For background see this post. I’ll comment on it in a later post. There is also an Editorial: Statistical Significance, P-Values, and Replicability by Karen Kafadar. Continue reading

Categories: ASA Task Force on Significance and Replicability | 9 Comments

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