rejected post

What really defies common sense (Msc kvetch on rejected posts)

imgres-2Msc Kvetch on my Rejected Posts blog.

Categories: frequentist/Bayesian, msc kvetch, rejected post | Leave a comment

Trial on Anil Potti’s (clinical) Trial Scandal Postponed Because Lawyers Get the Sniffles (updated)

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Trial in Medical Research Scandal Postponed
By Jay Price

DURHAM, N.C. — A judge in Durham County Superior Court has postponed the first civil trial against Duke University by the estate of a patient who had enrolled in one of a trio of clinical cancer studies that were based on bogus science.

The case is part of what the investigative TV news show “60 Minutes” said could go down in history as one of the biggest medical research frauds ever.

The trial had been scheduled to start Monday, but several attorneys involved contracted flu. Judge Robert C. Ervin hasn’t settled on a new start date, but after a conference call with him Monday night, attorneys in the case said it could be as late as this fall.

Flu? Don’t these lawyers get flu shots? Wasn’t Duke working on a flu vaccine? Delaying til Fall 2015?

The postponement delayed resolution in the long-running case for the two patients still alive among the eight who filed suit. It also prolonged a lengthy public relations headache for Duke Medicine that has included retraction of research papers in major scientific journals, the embarrassing segment on “60 Minutes” and the revelation that the lead scientist had falsely claimed to be a Rhodes Scholar in grant applications and credentials.

Because it’s not considered a class action, the eight cases may be tried individually. The one designated to come first was brought by Walter Jacobs, whose wife, Julie, had enrolled in an advanced stage lung cancer study based on the bad research. She died in 2010.

“We regret that our trial couldn’t go forward on the scheduled date,” said Raleigh attorney Thomas Henson, who is representing Jacobs. “As our filed complaint shows, this case goes straight to the basic rights of human research subjects in clinical trials, and we look forward to having those issues at the forefront of the discussion when we are able to have our trial rescheduled.”

It all began in 2006 with research led by a young Duke researcher named Anil Potti. He claimed to have found genetic markers in tumors that could predict which cancer patients might respond well to what form of cancer therapy. The discovery, which one senior Duke administrator later said would have been a sort of Holy Grail of cancer research if it had been accurate, electrified other scientists in the field.

Then, starting in 2007, came the three clinical trials aimed at testing the approach. These enrolled more than 100 lung and breast cancer patients, and were eventually expected to enroll hundreds more.

Duke shut them down permanently in 2010 after finding serious problems with Potti’s science.

Now some of the patients – or their estates, since many have died from their illnesses – are suing Duke, Potti, his mentor and research collaborator Dr. Joseph Nevins, and various Duke administrators. The suit alleges, among other things, that they had engaged in a systematic plan to commercially develop cancer tests worth billions of dollars while using science that they knew or should have known to be fraudulent.

The latest revelation in the case, based on documents that emerged from the lawsuit and first reported in the Cancer Letter, a newsletter that covers cancer research issues, is that a young researcher working with Potti had alerted university officials to problems with the research data two years before the experiments on the cancer patients were stopped. Continue reading

Categories: junk science, rejected post, Statistics | Tags: | 6 Comments

Should a “Fictionfactory” peepshow be barred from a festival on “Truth and Reality”? Diederik Stapel says no (rejected post)

photo-on-9-17-14-at-9-49-pm1So I hear that Diederik Stapel is the co-author of a book Fictionfactory (in Dutch,with a novelist, Dautzenberg)[i], and of what they call their “Fictionfactory peepshow”, only it’s been disinvited at the last minute from a Dutch festival on“truth and reality” (due to have run 9/26/14), and all because of Stapel’s involvement. Here’s an excerpt from an article in last week’s Retraction Watch (article is here):*

Here’s a case of art imitating science.

The organizers of a Dutch drama festival have put a halt to a play about the disgraced social psychologist Diederik Stapel, prompting protests from the authors of the skit — one of whom is Stapel himself.

According to an article in NRC Handelsblad:

The Amsterdam Discovery Festival on science and art has canceled at the last minute, the play written by Anton Dautzenberg and former professor Diederik Stapel. Co-sponsor, The Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW), doesn’t want Stapel, who committed science fraud, to perform at a festival that’s associated with the KNAW.

FICTION FACTORY

The management of the festival, planned for September 26th at the Tolhuistuin in Amsterdam, contacted Stapel and Dautzenberg 4 months ago with the request to organize a performance of their book and lecture project ‘The Fictionfactory”. Especially for this festival they [Stapel and Dautzenberg] created a ‘Fictionfactory-peepshow’.

“Last Friday I received a call [from the management of the festival] that our performance has been canceled at the last minute because the KNAW will withdraw their subsidy if Stapel is on the festival program”, says Dautzenberg. “This looks like censorship, and by an institution that also wants to represents arts and experiments”.

Well this is curious, as things with Stapel always are. What’s the “Fichtionfactory Peepshow”? If you go to Stapel’s homepage, it’s all in Dutch, but Google translation isn’t too bad, and I have a pretty good description of the basic idea. So since it’s Saturday night,let’s take a peek, or peep (at what it might have been)…

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Here we are at the “Truth and Reality” Festival: first stop (after some cotton candy): the Stapel Fictionfactory Peepshow! It’s all dark, I can’t see a thing. What? It says I have to put some coins in a slot if I want to turn turn him it on (but that they also take credit cards). So I’m to look down in this tiny window. The curtains are opening!…I see a stage with two funky looking guys– one of them is Stapel. They’re reading, or reciting from some magazine with big letters: “Fact, Fiction and the Frictions we Hide”.

Stapel and Dautzenberg

Stapel and Dautzenberg

STAPEL: Welkom.You can ask us any questions! In response, you will always be given an option: ‘Do you want to know the truth or do you want to be comforted with fictions and feel-good fantasy?’

“Well I’ve brought some data with me from a study in social psychology. My question is this: “Is there a statistically significant effect here?”

STAPEL:Do you want to know the truth or do you want to be comforted with fictions and feel-good fantasy?

“Fiction please”.

STAPEL: I can massage your data, manipulate your numbers, reveal the taboos normally kept under wraps. For a few more coins I will let you see the secrets behind unreplicable results, and for a large bill will manufacture for you a sexy statistical story to turn on the editors.

(Then after the dirty business is all done [ii].)

STAPEL: Do you have more questions for me?

“Will it be published (fiction please)?”

STAPEL: “yes”

“will anyone find out about this (fiction please)?”

STAPEL: “No, I mean yes, I mean no.”

 

“I’d like to change to hearing the truth now. I have three questions”.

STAPEL: No problem, we take credit cards. Dank u. What are your questions?’

“Will Uri Simonsohn be able to fraudbust my results using the kind of tests he used on others? and if so, how long will it take him? (truth, please)?

STAPEL: “Yes.But not for at least 6 months to one year.”

“Here’s my final question. Are these data really statistically significant and at what level?” (truth please)

Nothing. Blank screen suddenly! With an acrid smelling puff of smoke, ew. But I’d already given the credit card! (Tricked by the master trickster).

 

What if he either always lies or always tells the truth? Then what would you ask him if you want to know the truth about your data? (Liar’s paradox variant)

Feel free to share your queries/comments.

* I thank Caitlin Parker for sending me the article

[i]Diederik Stapel was found guilty of science fraud in psychology in 2011, made up data out of whole cloth, retracted over 50 papers.. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/28/magazine/diederik-stapels-audacious-academic-fraud.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

Bookjacket:

defictiefabriek_clip_image002

[ii] Perhaps they then ask you how much you’ll pay for a bar of soap (because you’d sullied yourself). Why let potential priming data go to waste?  Oh wait, he doesn’t use real data…. Perhaps the peepshow was supposed to be a kind of novel introduction to research ethics.

 

Some previous posts on Stapel:

 

Categories: Comedy, junk science, rejected post, Statistics | 5 Comments

Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”

metablog old fashion typewriterMemory lane: Did you ever consider how some of the colorful exchanges among better-known names in statistical foundations could be the basis for high literary drama in the form of one-act plays (even if appreciated by only 3-7 people in the world)? (Think of the expressionist exchange between Bohr and Heisenberg in Michael Frayn’s play Copenhagen, except here there would be no attempt at all to popularize—only published quotes and closely remembered conversations would be included, with no attempt to create a “story line”.)  Somehow I didn’t think so. But rereading some of Savage’s high-flown praise of Birnbaum’s “breakthrough” argument (for the Likelihood Principle) today, I was swept into a “(statistical) theater of the absurd” mindset.

The first one came to me in autumn 2008 while I was giving a series of seminars on philosophy of statistics at the LSE. Modeled on a disappointing (to me) performance of The Woman in Black, “A Funny Thing Happened at the [1959] Savage Forum” relates Savage’s horror at George Barnard’s announcement of having rejected the Likelihood Principle!

The current piece also features George Barnard and since Monday (9/23) is Barnard’s birthday, I’m digging it out of “rejected posts” to reblog it. It recalls our first meeting in London in 1986. I’d sent him a draft of my paper “Why Pearson Rejected the Neyman-Pearson Theory of Statistics” (later adapted as chapter 11 of EGEK) to see whether I’d gotten Pearson right. He’d traveled quite a ways, from Colchester, I think. It was June and hot, and we were up on some kind of a semi-enclosed rooftop. Barnard was sitting across from me looking rather bemused.Barnard-1979-picture

The curtain opens with Barnard and Mayo on the roof, lit by a spot mid-stage. He’s drinking (hot) tea; she, a Diet Coke. The dialogue (is what I recall from the time[i]):

 Barnard: I read your paper. I think it is quite good.  Did you know that it was I who told Fisher that Neyman-Pearson statistics had turned his significance tests into little more than acceptance procedures?

Mayo:  Thank you so much for reading my paper.  I recall a reference to you in Pearson’s response to Fisher, but I didn’t know the full extent.

Barnard: I was the one who told Fisher that Neyman was largely to blame. He shouldn’t be too hard on Egon.  His statistical philosophy, you are aware, was different from Neyman’s.

Mayo:  That’s interesting.  I did quote Pearson, at the end of his response to Fisher, as saying that inductive behavior was “Neyman’s field, not mine”.  I didn’t know your role in his laying the blame on Neyman!

Fade to black. The lights go up on Fisher, stage left, flashing back some 30 years earlier . . . ….

Fisher: Now, acceptance procedures are of great importance in the modern world.  When a large concern like the Royal Navy receives material from an engineering firm it is, I suppose, subjected to sufficiently careful inspection and testing to reduce the frequency of the acceptance of faulty or defective consignments. . . . I am casting no contempt on acceptance procedures, and I am thankful, whenever I travel by air, that the high level of precision and reliability required can really be achieved by such means.  But the logical differences between such an operation and the work of scientific discovery by physical or biological experimentation seem to me so wide that the analogy between them is not helpful . . . . [Advocates of behavioristic statistics are like]

Russians [who] are made familiar with the ideal that research in pure science can and should be geared to technological performance, in the comprehensive organized effort of a five-year plan for the nation. . . .

In the U.S. also the great importance of organized technology has I think made it easy to confuse the process appropriate for drawing correct conclusions, with those aimed rather at, let us say, speeding production, or saving money. (Fisher 1955, 69-70)

Fade to black.  The lights go up on Egon Pearson stage right (who looks like he does in my sketch [frontispiece] from EGEK 1996, a bit like a young C. S. Peirce):

Pearson: There was no sudden descent upon British soil of Russian ideas regarding the function of science in relation to technology and to five-year plans. . . . Indeed, to dispel the picture of the Russian technological bogey, I might recall how certain early ideas came into my head as I sat on a gate overlooking an experimental blackcurrant plot . . . . To the best of my ability I was searching for a way of expressing in mathematical terms what appeared to me to be the requirements of the scientist in applying statistical tests to his data.  (Pearson 1955, 204)

Fade to black. The spotlight returns to Barnard and Mayo, but brighter. It looks as if it’s gotten hotter.  Barnard wipes his brow with a white handkerchief.  Mayo drinks her Diet Coke.

Barnard (ever so slightly angry): You have made one blunder in your paper. Fisher would never have made that remark about Russia.

There is a tense silence.

Mayo: But—it was a quote.

End of Act 1.

Given this was pre-internet, we couldn’t go to the source then and there, so we agreed to search for the paper in the library. Well, you get the idea. Maybe I could call the piece “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof.”

If you go see it, don’t say I didn’t warn you.

I’ve gotten various new speculations over the years as to why he had this reaction to the mention of Russia (check discussions in earlier posts with this play). Feel free to share yours. Some new (to me) information on Barnard is in George Box’s recent autobiography.


[i] We had also discussed this many years later, in 1999.

 

Categories: Barnard, phil/history of stat, rejected post, Statistics | Tags: , , , , | 3 Comments

A crucial missing piece in the Pistorius trial? (2): my answer (Rejected Post)

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Time for a break with a “Rejected Post”[i]

There’s one crucial point that Prosecutor Nell overlooked and failed to employ in the Oscar Pistorius trial–or so it appears. In fact I haven’t heard anyone mention it—so maybe it’s not as critical as I think it is. Before revealing (what I regard as) an important missing piece, I ask readers and legal beagles out there for their informal take.

Here are some items from the announced verdict (which do not directly give away the missing piece, but may be enough to deduce it). (A general article is here.)

Oscar Pistorius ‘not guilty’ of girlfriend’s murder, rules judge Thokozile Masipa

AP | September 11, 2014, 17.09 pm IST

Before the break, Judge Masipa ruled out “dolus eventualis”[ii], saying Mr Pistorius could not have foreseen he would kill the person behind the toilet door.

“How could the accused have reasonably foreseen the shot he fired would have killed the deceased? Clearly he did not subjectively foresee this, that he would have killed the person behind the door, let alone the deceased,” said Judge Masipa.

The judge said the defence argues it is highly improbable the accused could have made this up so quickly and consistently, even in his bail application, [really?]

….Evidence shows that at time he fired shots at toilet door, Mr Pistorius believed the deceased was in the bedroom, the judge says. This belief was communicated to a number of people shortly after the incident, she added.

The judge said there is “nothing in the evidence to suggest that Mr Pistorius’ belief was not genuinely entertained”. She cites reasons including the bathroom window being open, and the toilet door being shut.

… He… [said] he genuinely, though erroneously, believed that his life and that of the deceased was in danger,” the judge said….

The starting point is “whether accused had intention to kill person behind toilet door,” the judge said. Continue reading

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Msc kvetch: You are fully dressed (even under your clothes)?

UnknownRejected posts

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Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”

metablog old fashion typewriter

Memory lane: Did you ever consider how some of the colorful exchanges among better-known names in statistical foundations could be the basis for high literary drama in the form of one-act plays (even if appreciated by only 3-7 people in the world)? (Think of the expressionist exchange between Bohr and Heisenberg in Michael Frayn’s play Copenhagen, except here there would be no attempt at all to popularize—only published quotes and closely remembered conversations would be included, with no attempt to create a “story line”.)  Somehow I didn’t think so. But rereading some of Savage’s high-flown praise of Birnbaum’s “breakthrough” argument (for the Likelihood Principle) today, I was swept into a “(statistical) theater of the absurd” mindset.

The first one came to me in autumn 2008 while I was giving a series of seminars on philosophy of statistics at the LSE. Modeled on a disappointing (to me) performance of The Woman in Black, “A Funny Thing Happened at the [1959] Savage Forum” relates Savage’s horror at George Barnard’s announcement of having rejected the Likelihood Principle!

The current piece taking shape also features George Barnard and since tomorrow (9/23) is his birthday, I’m digging it out of “rejected posts”. It recalls our first meeting in London in 1986. I’d sent him a draft of my paper “Why Pearson Rejected the Neyman-Pearson Theory of Statistics” (later adapted as chapter 11 of EGEK) to see whether I’d gotten Pearson right. He’d traveled quite a ways, from Colchester, I think. It was June and hot, and we were up on some kind of a semi-enclosed rooftop. Barnard was sitting across from me looking rather bemused.Barnard-1979-picture

The curtain opens with Barnard and Mayo on the roof, lit by a spot mid-stage. He’s drinking (hot) tea; she, a Diet Coke. The dialogue (is what I recall from the time[i]):

 Barnard: I read your paper. I think it is quite good.  Did you know that it was I who told Fisher that Neyman-Pearson statistics had turned his significance tests into little more than acceptance procedures?

Mayo:  Thank you so much for reading my paper.  I recall a reference to you in Pearson’s response to Fisher, but I didn’t know the full extent.

Barnard: I was the one who told Fisher that Neyman was largely to blame. He shouldn’t be too hard on Egon.  His statistical philosophy, you are aware, was different from Neyman’s. Continue reading

Categories: Barnard, phil/history of stat, rejected post, Statistics | Tags: , , , , | 6 Comments

‘No-Shame’ Psychics Keep Their Predictions Vague: New Rejected post

imagesSee new rejected post.(You may comment here or on the Rejected Posts blog)

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Professorships in Scandal?

Unknown-1On page 1 of the New York Times yesterday was an article, “The Last Refuge From Scandal? Professorships”:

The traditional path to an academic job is long and laborious: the solitude and penury of graduate study, the scramble for one of the few open positions in each field, the blood sport of competitive publishing. But while colleges have always courted accomplished public figures, a leap to the front of the class has now become a natural move for those who have suffered spectacular career flameouts. At this point, the transition from public disgrace to college lectern is so familiar that when Mr. Galliano merely stepped foot on the campus of Central Saint Martins, an art and design school in London, speculation rippled around the world— incorrectly — that he would soon be teaching there.

I guess this shouldn’t surprise anyone. Sexy course titles and “novelty academics” are pretty old-hat; power and scandal, even if on the sleazy side, attract students; and if students are buying, universities can’t be blamed for selling. Or can they?  Here are some examples they cite:

After a sex scandal forced Eliot Spitzer from the governor’s mansion in Albany, he turned up at City College, teaching a course called “Law and Public Policy.” …

More recently, Parsons the New School for Design announced that John Galliano, the celebrated clothing designer who lost his job at Christian Dior after unleashing a torrent of anti-Semitic vitriol in a bar, would be leading a four-day workshop and discussion called “Show Me Emotion.”

And David H. Petraeus, the general turned intelligence chief turned ribald punch line, will have not one college paycheck, but two. Last month, the City University of New York said he would be the next visiting professor of public policy at Macaulay Honors College. On Thursday, the University of Southern California announced that Mr. Petraeus would also be teaching there…

Despite a petition objecting to Galliano, there seems to be little public concern that offering such courses threatens a university’s ethical standards, especially, perhaps, if “only” sexual transgressions are involved.  Still, while I can see students wanting to enroll in a course taught by a Petreaus or a Spitzer, I doubt the same would be true for one run by a Deiderick Stapel*.  Is it because in the former cases the scandal does not directly touch on their accomplishments? Is there a justifiable principle of distinction operating?**   (Or might it depend on the course?) Continue reading

Categories: rejected post | 4 Comments

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