Statistical Inference as Severe Testing

Where Are Fisher, Neyman, Pearson in 1919? Opening of Excursion 3, snippets from 3.1

Posted on November 13, 2025 by Mayo

November Cruise

This second excerpt for November is really just the preface to 3.1. Remember, our abbreviated cruise this fall is based on my LSE Seminars in 2020, and since there are only 5, I had to cut. So those seminars skipped 3.1 on the eclipse tests of GTR. But I want to share snippets from 3.1 with current readers, along with reflections in the comments.

Excursion 3 Statistical Tests and Scientific Inference

Tour I Ingenious and Severe Tests

[T]he impressive thing about [the 1919 tests of Einstein’s theory of gravity] is the risk involved in a prediction of this kind. If observation shows that the predicted effect is definitely absent, then the theory is simply refuted.The theory is incompatible with certain possible results of observation – in fact with results which everybody before Einstein would have expected. This is quite different from the situation I have previously described, [where] . . . it was practically impossible to describe any human behavior that might not be claimed to be a verification of these [psychological] theories. (Popper 1962, p. 36)

Continue reading →

Categories: 2025 leisurely cruise, SIST, Statistical Inference as Severe Testing | 2 Comments

November: The leisurely tour of SIST continues

Posted on November 7, 2025 by Mayo

2025 Cruise

We continue our leisurely tour of Statistical Inference as Severe Testing [SIST] (Mayo 2018, CUP) with Excursion 3. This is based on my 5 seminars at the London School of Economics in 2020; I include slides and video for those who are interested. (use the comments for questions) Continue reading →

Categories: 2025 leisurely cruise, significance tests, Statistical Inference as Severe Testing | 1 Comment

Excursion 1 Tour I (3rd stop): The Current State of Play in Statistical Foundations: A View From a Hot-Air Balloon (1.3)

Posted on October 26, 2025 by Mayo

Third Stop

Readers: With this third stop we’ve covered Tour 1 of Excursion 1.  My slides from the first LSE meeting in 2020 which dealt with elements of Excursion 1 can be found at the end of this post. There’s also a video giving an overall intro to SIST, Excursion 1. It’s noteworthy to consider just how much things seem to have changed in just the past few years. Or have they? What would the view from the hot-air balloon look like now?  Share your thoughts in the comments.

ZOOM: I propose a zoom meeting for Sunday Nov. 15, Sunday, November 16 at 11 am or Friday, November 21 at 11am, New York time. (An equal # prefer Fri & Sun.) The link will be available to those who register/registered with Dr. Miller*.

The Current State of Play in Statistical Foundations: A View From a Hot-Air Balloon (1.3)

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How can a discipline, central to science and to critical thinking, have two methodologies, two logics, two approaches that frequently give substantively different answers to the same problems? … Is complacency in the face of contradiction acceptable for a central discipline of science? (Donald Fraser 2011, p. 329)

We [statisticians] are not blameless … we have not made a concerted professional effort to provide the scientific world with a unified testing methodology. (J. Berger 2003, p. 4)

Continue reading →

Categories: 2025 leisurely cruise, Statistical Inference as Severe Testing | Leave a comment

2025(1)The leisurely cruise begins: Excerpt from Excursion 1 Tour 1 of Statistical Inference as Severe Testing (SIST)

Posted on October 1, 2025 by Mayo

Ship Statinfasst

Excerpt from excursion 1 Tour I: Beyond Probabilism and Performance: Severity Requirement (1.1)

NOTE: The following is an excerpt from my book: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to get beyond the statistics wars (CUP, 2018). For any new reflections or corrections, I will use the comments. The initial announcement is here (including how to join).

I’m talking about a specific, extra type of integrity that is [beyond] not lying, but bending over backwards to show how you’re maybe wrong, that you ought to have when acting as a scientist. (Feynman 1974/1985, p. 387)

It is easy to lie with statistics. Or so the cliché goes. It is also very difficult to uncover these lies without statistical methods – at least of the right kind. Self- correcting statistical methods are needed, and, with minimal technical fanfare, that’s what I aim to illuminate. Since Darrell Huff wrote How to Lie with Statistics in 1954, ways of lying with statistics are so well worn as to have emerged in reverberating slogans:

  • Association is not causation.
  • Statistical significance is not substantive significamce
  • No evidence of risk is not evidence of no risk.
  • If you torture the data enough, they will confess.

Continue reading →

Categories: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing | Leave a comment

Where Are Fisher, Neyman, Pearson in 1919? Opening of Excursion 3, snippets from 3.1

Posted on November 14, 2024 by Mayo

November Cruise

This first excerpt for November is really just the preface to 3.1. Remember, our abbreviated cruise this fall is based on my LSE Seminars in 2020, and since there are only 5, I had to cut. So those seminars skipped 3.1 on the eclipse tests of GTR. But I want to share snippets from 3.1 with current readers, along with reflections in the comments. (I promise, I’ve even numbered them below)

Excursion 3 Statistical Tests and Scientific Inference

Tour I Ingenious and Severe Tests

[T]he impressive thing about [the 1919 tests of Einstein’s theory of gravity] is the risk involved in a prediction of this kind. If observation shows that the predicted effect is definitely absent, then the theory is simply refuted.The theory is incompatible with certain possible results of observation – in fact with results which everybody before Einstein would have expected. This is quite different from the situation I have previously described, [where] . . . it was practically impossible to describe any human behavior that might not be claimed to be a verification of these [psychological] theories. (Popper 1962, p. 36)

The 1919 eclipse experiments opened Popper’ s eyes to what made Einstein’ s theory so different from other revolutionary theories of the day: Einstein was prepared to subject his theory to risky tests.[1] Einstein was eager to galvanize scientists to test his theory of gravity, knowing the solar eclipse was coming up on May 29, 1919. Leading the expedition to test GTR was a perfect opportunity for Sir Arthur Eddington, a devout follower of Einstein as well as a devout Quaker and conscientious objector. Fearing “ a scandal if one of its young stars went to jail as a conscientious objector,” officials at Cambridge argued that Eddington couldn’ t very well be allowed to go off to war when the country needed him to prepare the journey to test Einstein’ s predicted light deflection (Kaku 2005, p. 113).

The museum ramps up from Popper through a gallery on “ Data Analysis in the 1919 Eclipse” (Section 3.1) which then leads to the main gallery on origins of statistical tests (Section 3.2). Here’ s our Museum Guide: Continue reading →

Categories: SIST, Statistical Inference as Severe Testing | 2 Comments

November: The leisurely tour of SIST continues

Posted on November 9, 2024 by Mayo

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We continue our leisurely tour of Statistical Inference as Severe Testing [SIST] (Mayo 2018, CUP) with Excursion 3. This is based on my 5 seminars at the London School of Economics in 2020; I include slides and video for those who are interested. (use the comments for questions)

November’s Leisurely Tour: N-P and Fisherian Tests, Severe Testing 

Reading:

SIST: Excursion 3 Tour I (focus on pages up to p. 152): 3.1, 3.2, 3.3

Optional: Excursion 2 Tour II pp. 92-100 (Sections 2.4-2.7)

Quick refresher on means, variance, standard deviations, the Normal distribution, standard normal

 

 

Slides & Video Links for November (from my LSE Seminar)

Continue reading →

Categories: 2024 Leisurely Cruise, significance tests, Statistical Inference as Severe Testing | Leave a comment

Excursion 1 Tour I (3rd stop): The Current State of Play in Statistical Foundations: A View From a Hot-Air Balloon (1.3)

Posted on October 16, 2024 by Mayo

Third Stop

Readers: With this third stop we’ve covered Tour 1 of Excursion 1.  My slides from the first LSE meeting in 2020 which dealt with elements of Excursion 1 can be found at the end of this post. There’s also a video giving an overall intro to SIST, Excursion 1. It’s noteworthy to consider just how much things seem to have changed in just the past few years. Or have they? What would the view from the hot-air balloon look like now?  I will try to address this in the comments.

 

Continue reading →

Categories: 2024 Leisurely Cruise, Statistical Inference as Severe Testing | Leave a comment

Popper, Falsification and Pseudoscience (Notes from my philstat seminar)

Posted on February 12, 2023 by Mayo

My Phil Stat seminar has been meeting for 4 weeks now, and we’re soon to experiment with a small group of outside participants zooming in (write to us, if you are interested in joining us). I’ve been so busy with the seminar that I haven’t blogged. Have you been following? All the materials are on a continually updated syllabus on this blog (SYLLABUS). We’re up to Excursion 2, Tour II.

Last week, we did something unusual: we read from Popper’s Conjectures and Refutations. I wanted to do this because scientists often appeal to distorted and unsophisticated accounts of Popper, especially in discussing falsification, and what demarcates good science from poor science. While I don’t think Popper made good on his most winning slogans, he gives us many seminal launching-off points for improved accounts of falsification, induction, corroboration, and demarcation. Continue reading →

Categories: highly probable vs highly probed, science vs pseudoscience, Statistical Inference as Severe Testing | 1 Comment

A statistically significant result indicates H’ (μ > μ’) when POW(μ’) is low (not the other way round)–but don’t ignore the standard error

Posted on May 9, 2022 by Mayo

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1. New monsters. One of the bizarre facts of life in the statistics wars is that a method from one school may be criticized on grounds that it conflicts with a conception that is the reverse of what that school intends. How is that even to be deciphered? That was the difficult task I set for myself in writing Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars (CUP, 2008) [SIST 2018]. I thought I was done, but new monsters keep appearing. In some cases, rather than see how the notion of severity gets us beyond fallacies, misconstruals are taken to criticize severity! So, for example, in the last couple of posts, here and here, I deciphered some of the better known power howlers (discussed in SIST Ex 5 Tour II) I’m linking to all of this tour (in proofs). Continue reading →

Categories: power, reforming the reformers, SIST, Statistical Inference as Severe Testing | 16 Comments

Do “underpowered” tests “exaggerate” population effects? (iv)

Posted on May 2, 2022 by Mayo

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You will often hear that if you reach a just statistically significant result “and the discovery study is underpowered, the observed effects are expected to be inflated” (Ioannidis 2008, p. 64), or “exaggerated” (Gelman and Carlin 2014). This connects to what I’m referring to as the second set of concerns about statistical significance tests, power and magnitude errors. Here, the problem does not revolve around erroneously interpreting power as a posterior probability, as we saw in the fallacy in this post. But there are other points of conflict with the error statistical tester, and much that cries out for clarification — else you will misunderstand the consequences of some of today’s reforms.. Continue reading →

Categories: power, reforming the reformers, SIST, Statistical Inference as Severe Testing | 17 Comments

All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 10 years on

Posted on September 3, 2021 by Mayo

Dear Reader: I began this blog 10 years ago (Sept. 3, 2011)! A double celebration is taking place at the Elbar Room–remotely for the first time due to Covid– both for the blog and the 3 year anniversary of the physical appearance of my book: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars [SIST] (CUP, 2018). A special rush edition made an appearance on Sept 3, 2018 in time for the RSS meeting in Cardiff, where we had a session deconstructing the arguments against statistical significance tests (with Sir David Cox, Richard Morey and Aris Spanos). Join us between 7 and 8 pm in a drink of Elba Grease.

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Many of the discussions in the book were importantly influenced (corrected and improved) by reader’s comments on the blog over the years. I posted several excerpts and mementos from SIST here. I thank readers for their input. Readers might want to look up the topics in SIST on this blog to check out the comments, and see how ideas were developed, corrected and turned into “excursions” in SIST.

I recently invited readers to weigh in on the ASA Task Force on Statistical significance and Replication--any time through September–to be part of a joint guest post (or posts). All contributors will get a free copy of SIST. Continue reading →

Categories: 10 year memory lane, Statistical Inference as Severe Testing | Leave a comment

Cox’s (1958) Chestnut: You should not get credit (or blame) for something you didn’t do

Posted on December 28, 2020 by Mayo

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Just as you keep up your physical exercise during the pandemic (sure), you want to keep up with mental gymnastics too. With that goal in mind, and given we’re just a few days from the New Year (and given especially my promised presentation for January 7), here’s one of the two simple examples that will limber you up for the puzzle to ensue. It’s the famous weighing machine example from Sir David Cox (1958)[1]. It is one of the “chestnuts” in the museum exhibits of “chestnuts and howlers” in Excursion 3 (Tour II) of my book Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars (SIST, 2018). So block everything else out for a few minutes and consider 3 pages from SIST …  Continue reading →

Categories: Birnbaum, Statistical Inference as Severe Testing, strong likelihood principle | 5 Comments

Aris Spanos Reviews Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars

Posted on January 11, 2020 by Mayo

A. Spanos

Aris Spanos was asked to review my Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: how to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars (CUP, 2018), but he was to combine it with a review of the re-issue of Ian Hacking’s classic  Logic of Statistical Inference. The journal is OEconomia: History, Methodology, Philosophy. Below are excerpts from his discussion of my book (pp. 843-860). I will jump past the Hacking review, and occasionally excerpt for length.To read his full article go to external journal pdf or stable internal blog pdf. Continue reading →

Categories: Spanos, Statistical Inference as Severe Testing | Leave a comment

Cox’s (1958) Chestnut: You shouldn’t get credit (or blame) for something you didn’t do

Posted on December 30, 2019 by Mayo

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Just as you regularly keep up your physical exercise during the pandemic (sure), you also want to keep up with brain exercise. Given we’re just a few days from New Year’s eve, and given especially that on January 7 I will attempt (for the first time) a highly informal presentation of a controversial result in statistical foundations), here’s a little 2018 marked 60 years since the famous weighing machine example from Sir David Cox (1958)[1]. it is now 61. It’s one of the “chestnuts” in the exhibits of “chestnuts and howlers” in Excursion 3 (Tour II) of my (still) new book Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars (SIST, 2018). It’s especially relevant to take this up now, just before we leave 2019, for reasons that will be revealed over the next day or two. For a sneak preview of those reasons, see the “note to the reader” at the end of this post. So, let’s go back to it, with an excerpt from SIST (pp. 170-173). Continue reading →

Categories: Birnbaum, Statistical Inference as Severe Testing, strong likelihood principle | Leave a comment

The Current State of Play in Statistical Foundations: A View From a Hot-Air Balloon

Posted on October 15, 2019 by Mayo

1.3

Continue to the third, and last stop of Excursion 1 Tour I of Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars (2018, CUP)–Section 1.3. It would be of interest to ponder if (and how) the current state of play in the stat wars has shifted in just one year. I’ll do so in the comments. Use that space to ask me any questions.

How can a discipline, central to science and to critical thinking, have two methodologies, two logics, two approaches that frequently give substantively different answers to the same problems? … Is complacency in the face of contradiction acceptable for a central discipline of science? (Donald Fraser 2011, p. 329)

We [statisticians] are not blameless … we have not made a concerted professional effort to provide the scientific world with a unified testing methodology. (J. Berger 2003, p. 4)

Continue reading →

Categories: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing | 3 Comments

Severity: Strong vs Weak (Excursion 1 continues)

Posted on October 10, 2019 by Mayo

1.2

Marking one year since the appearance of my book: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars (2018, CUP), let’s continue to the second stop (1.2) of Excursion 1 Tour 1. It begins on p. 13 with a quote from statistician George Barnard. Assorted reflections will be given in the comments. Ask me any questions pertaining to the Tour.

 

  • I shall be concerned with the foundations of the subject. But in case it should be thought that this means I am not here strongly concerned with practical applications, let me say right away that confusion about the foundations of the subject is responsible, in my opinion, for much of the misuse of the statistics that one meets in fields of application such as medicine, psychology, sociology, economics, and so forth. (George Barnard 1985, p. 2)

Continue reading →

Categories: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing | 6 Comments

How My Book Begins: Beyond Probabilism and Performance: Severity Requirement

Posted on October 8, 2019 by Mayo

This week marks one year since the general availability of my book: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars (2018, CUP). Here’s how it begins (Excursion 1 Tour 1 (1.1)). Material from the preface is here. I will sporadically give some “one year later” reflections in the comments. I invite readers to ask me any questions pertaining to the Tour.

The journey begins..(1.1)

I’m talking about a specific, extra type of integrity that is [beyond] not lying, but bending over backwards to show how you’re maybe wrong, that you ought to have when acting as a scientist. (Feynman 1974/1985, p. 387)

It is easy to lie with statistics. Or so the cliché goes. It is also very difficult to uncover these lies without statistical methods – at least of the right kind. Self- correcting statistical methods are needed, and, with minimal technical fanfare, that’s what I aim to illuminate. Since Darrell Huff wrote How to Lie with Statistics in 1954, ways of lying with statistics are so well worn as to have emerged in reverberating slogans:

  • Association is not causation.
  • Statistical significance is not substantive significamce
  • No evidence of risk is not evidence of no risk.
  • If you torture the data enough, they will confess.

Continue reading →

Categories: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing, Statistics | 4 Comments

SIST: All Excerpts and Mementos: May 2018-June 2020 (updated)

Posted on July 8, 2019 by Mayo

Introduction & Overview

The Meaning of My Title: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars* 05/19/18

Blurbs of 16 Tours: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars (SIST) 03/05/19

Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: Preface

Excursion 1

EXCERPTS

Tour I Ex1 TI (full proofs)

Excursion 1 Tour I: Beyond Probabilism and Performance: Severity Requirement (1.1) 09/08/18

Excursion 1 Tour I (2nd stop): Probabilism, Performance, and Probativeness (1.2) 09/11/18

Excursion 1 Tour I (3rd stop): The Current State of Play in Statistical Foundations: A View From a Hot-Air Balloon (1.3) 09/15/18

Tour II Ex1 TII (full proofs)

Excursion 1 Tour II: Error Probing Tools versus Logics of Evidence-Excerpt 04/04/19

Souvenir C: A Severe Tester’s Translation Guide (Excursion 1 Tour II) 11/08/18

MEMENTOS

Tour Guide Mementos (Excursion 1 Tour II of How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars) 10/29/18

 

Excursion 2

EXCERPTS

Tour I (full proofs)

Excursion 2: Taboos of Induction and Falsification: Tour I (first stop) 09/29/18

“It should never be true, though it is still often said, that the conclusions are no more accurate than the data on which they are based” (Keepsake by Fisher, 2.1) 10/05/18

Tour II (full proofs)

Excursion 2 Tour II (3rd stop): Falsification, Pseudoscience, Induction (2.3) 10/10/18
Ex 2 TII (Full proofs)

MEMENTOS

Tour Guide Mementos and Quiz 2.1 (Excursion 2 Tour I Induction and Confirmation) 11/14/18

Mementos for Excursion 2 Tour II Falsification, Pseudoscience, Induction 11/17/18

 

Excursion 3

EXCERPTS

Tour I Ex3 TI (full proofs)

Where are Fisher, Neyman, Pearson in 1919? Opening of Excursion 3 11/30/18

Neyman-Pearson Tests: An Episode in Anglo-Polish Collaboration: Excerpt from Excursion 3 (3.2) 12/01/18

First Look at N-P Methods as Severe Tests: Water plant accident [Exhibit (i) from Excursion 3] 12/04/18

Tour II Ex3 TII (full proofs)

It’s the Methods, Stupid: Excerpt from Excursion 3 Tour II (Mayo 2018, CUP) 12/11/18

60 Years of Cox’s (1958) Chestnut: Excerpt from Excursion 3 tour II. 12/29/18

Tour III Ex3 Tour III(full proofs)

Capability and Severity: Deeper Concepts: Excerpts From Excursion 3 Tour III 12/20/18

MEMENTOS

Memento & Quiz (on SEV): Excursion 3, Tour I 12/08/18

Mementos for “It’s the Methods, Stupid!” Excursion 3 Tour II (3.4-3.6) 12/13/18

Tour Guide Mementos From Excursion 3 Tour III: Capability and Severity: Deeper Concepts 12/26/18

 

Excursion 4

EXCERPTS

Tour I (Full Excursion 4 Tour I)

Excerpt from Excursion 4 Tour I: The Myth of “The Myth of Objectivity” (Mayo 2018, CUP) 12/26/18

Tour II (Full Excursion 4 Tour II)

Excerpt from Excursion 4 Tour II: 4.4 “Do P-Values Exaggerate the Evidence?” 01/10/19

Tour III (Full proofs of Excursion 4 Tour III)

Tour IV (Full proofs of Excursion 4 Tour IV)

Excerpt from Excursion 4 Tour IV: More Auditing: Objectivity and Model Checking 01/27/19

MEMENTOS

Mementos from Excursion 4: Blurbs of Tours I-IV 01/13/19

 

Excursion 5

Tour I (full proofs)

(Full) Excerpt: Excursion 5 Tour I — Power: Pre-data and Post-data (from “SIST: How to Get Beyond the Stat Wars”) 04/27/19

Tour II (full proofs)

(Full) Excerpt. Excursion 5 Tour II: How Not to Corrupt Power (Power Taboos, Retro Power, and Shpower) 06/07/19

Tour III (full proofs)

Deconstructing the Fisher-Neyman conflict wearing Fiducial glasses + Excerpt 5.8 from SIST 02/23/19

 

Excursion 6

Tour I (full proofs) What Ever Happened to Bayesian Foundations?

Tour II (full proofs)

Excerpts: Souvenir Z: Understanding Tribal Warfare +  6.7 Farewell Keepsake from SIST + List of Souvenirs 05/04/19 (full excerpt)

 

*Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars (Mayo, CUP 2018).

Categories: SIST, Statistical Inference as Severe Testing | 11 Comments

(Full) Excerpt. Excursion 5 Tour II: How Not to Corrupt Power (Power Taboos, Retro Power, and Shpower)

Posted on June 7, 2019 by Mayo

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returned from London…

The concept of a test’s power is still being corrupted in the myriad ways discussed in 5.5, 5.6.  I’m excerpting all of Tour II of Excursion 5, as I did with Tour I (of Statistical Inference as Severe Testing:How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars 2018, CUP)*. Originally the two Tours comprised just one, but in finalizing corrections, I decided the two together was too long of a slog, and I split it up. Because it was done at the last minute, some of the terms in Tour II rely on their introductions in Tour I.  Here’s how it starts:

5.5 Power Taboos, Retrospective Power, and Shpower

Let’s visit some of the more populous tribes who take issue with power – by which we mean ordinary power – at least its post-data uses. Power Peninsula is often avoided due to various “keep out” warnings and prohibitions, or researchers come during planning, never to return. Why do some people consider it a waste of time, if not totally taboo, to compute power once we know the data? A degree of blame must go to N-P, who emphasized the planning role of power, and only occasionally mentioned its use in determining what gets “confirmed” post-data. After all, it’s good to plan how large a boat we need for a philosophical excursion to the Lands of Overlapping Statistical Tribes, but once we’ve made it, it doesn’t matter that the boat was rather small. Or so the critic of post-data power avers. A crucial disanalogy is that with statistics, we don’t know that we’ve “made it there,” when we arrive at a statistically significant result. The statistical significance alarm goes off, but you are not able to see the underlying discrepancy that generated the alarm you hear. The problem is to make the leap from the perceived alarm to an aspect of a process, deep below the visible ocean, responsible for its having been triggered. Then it is of considerable relevance to exploit information on the capability of your test procedure to result in alarms going off (perhaps with different decibels of loudness), due to varying values of the parameter of interest. There are also objections to power analysis with insignificant results. Continue reading →

Categories: fallacy of non-significance, power, Statistical Inference as Severe Testing | Leave a comment

SIST: All Excerpts and Mementos: May 2018-May 2019

Posted on May 14, 2019 by Mayo

view from a hot-air balloon

Introduction & Overview

The Meaning of My Title: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars* 05/19/18

Blurbs of 16 Tours: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars (SIST) 03/05/19

 

Excursion 1

EXCERPTS

Tour I (full proofs)

Excursion 1 Tour I: Beyond Probabilism and Performance: Severity Requirement (1.1) 09/08/18

Excursion 1 Tour I (2nd stop): Probabilism, Performance, and Probativeness (1.2) 09/11/18

Excursion 1 Tour I (3rd stop): The Current State of Play in Statistical Foundations: A View From a Hot-Air Balloon (1.3) 09/15/18

Tour II (full proofs)

Excursion 1 Tour II: Error Probing Tools versus Logics of Evidence-Excerpt 04/04/19

Souvenir C: A Severe Tester’s Translation Guide (Excursion 1 Tour II) 11/08/18

MEMENTOS

Tour Guide Mementos (Excursion 1 Tour II of How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars) 10/29/18

 

Excursion 2

EXCERPTS

Tour I (full proofs)

Excursion 2: Taboos of Induction and Falsification: Tour I (first stop) 09/29/18

“It should never be true, though it is still often said, that the conclusions are no more accurate than the data on which they are based” (Keepsake by Fisher, 2.1) 10/05/18

Tour II (full proofs)

Excursion 2 Tour II (3rd stop): Falsification, Pseudoscience, Induction (2.3) 10/10/18

MEMENTOS

Tour Guide Mementos and Quiz 2.1 (Excursion 2 Tour I Induction and Confirmation) 11/14/18

Mementos for Excursion 2 Tour II Falsification, Pseudoscience, Induction 11/17/18

 

Excursion 3

EXCERPTS

Tour I (full proofs)

Where are Fisher, Neyman, Pearson in 1919? Opening of Excursion 3 11/30/18

Neyman-Pearson Tests: An Episode in Anglo-Polish Collaboration: Excerpt from Excursion 3 (3.2) 12/01/18

First Look at N-P Methods as Severe Tests: Water plant accident [Exhibit (i) from Excursion 3] 12/04/18

Tour II (full proofs)

It’s the Methods, Stupid: Excerpt from Excursion 3 Tour II (Mayo 2018, CUP) 12/11/18

60 Years of Cox’s (1958) Chestnut: Excerpt from Excursion 3 tour II. 12/29/18

Tour III (full proofs)

Capability and Severity: Deeper Concepts: Excerpts From Excursion 3 Tour III 12/20/18

MEMENTOS

Memento & Quiz (on SEV): Excursion 3, Tour I 12/08/18

Mementos for “It’s the Methods, Stupid!” Excursion 3 Tour II (3.4-3.6) 12/13/18

Tour Guide Mementos From Excursion 3 Tour III: Capability and Severity: Deeper Concepts 12/26/18

 

Excursion 4

EXCERPTS

Tour I (full proofs)

Excerpt from Excursion 4 Tour I: The Myth of “The Myth of Objectivity” (Mayo 2018, CUP) 12/26/18

Tour II (full proofs)

Excerpt from Excursion 4 Tour II: 4.4 “Do P-Values Exaggerate the Evidence?” 01/10/19

Tour III (full proofs)

 Tour IV (full proofs)

Excerpt from Excursion 4 Tour IV: More Auditing: Objectivity and Model Checking 01/27/19

MEMENTOS

Mementos from Excursion 4: Blurbs of Tours I-IV 01/13/19

 

Excursion 5

Tour I (full proofs)

(full) Excerpt: Excursion 5 Tour I — Power: Pre-data and Post-data (from “SIST: How to Get Beyond the Stat Wars”) 04/27/19

Tour II (full proofs)

Tour III (full proofs)

Deconstructing the Fisher-Neyman conflict wearing Fiducial glasses + Excerpt 5.8 from SIST 02/23/19

 

Excursion 6

Tour I (full proofs)

Tour II (full proofs)

Excerpts: Souvenir Z: Understanding Tribal Warfare +  6.7 Farewell Keepsake from SIST + List of Souvenirs 05/04/19

*Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars (Mayo, CUP 2018).

Categories: SIST, Statistical Inference as Severe Testing | 1 Comment

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