All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 10 years on

Dear Reader: I began this blog 10 years ago (Sept. 3, 2011)! A double celebration is taking place at the Elbar Room–remotely for the first time due to Covid– both for the blog and the 3 year anniversary of the physical appearance of my book: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars [SIST] (CUP, 2018). A special rush edition made an appearance on Sept 3, 2018 in time for the RSS meeting in Cardiff, where we had a session deconstructing the arguments against statistical significance tests (with Sir David Cox, Richard Morey and Aris Spanos). Join us between 7 and 8 pm in a drink of Elba Grease.

Many of the discussions in the book were importantly influenced (corrected and improved) by reader’s comments on the blog over the years. I posted several excerpts and mementos from SIST here. I thank readers for their input. Readers might want to look up the topics in SIST on this blog to check out the comments, and see how ideas were developed, corrected and turned into “excursions” in SIST.

I recently invited readers to weigh in on the ASA Task Force on Statistical significance and Replication--any time through September–to be part of a joint guest post (or posts). All contributors will get a free copy of SIST.

In the summer of 2019, A. Spanos and I led a Summer Seminar in Phil Stat at Virginia Tech for 15 faculty members from around the world in philosophy, psychology, and statistics. A write up is here.

In the summer of 2020 (May 21-June 18), I ran a virtual LSE PH500 seminar on Current Controversies in Phil Stat. Then, for one year, I led the Phil Stat Forum monthly. Our Workshop, The Statistics Wars and Their Casualties is now postponed until 4-5 April at the London School of Economics.

Please peruse the 10 years of offerings below, taking advantage of the discussions by guest posters and readers. I did manage some pandemic posts on cruise ships, bats, masks and such (check 2021)

Thank you so much for your interest!

Warmest Wishes,

D. Mayo

P.S. Yes, I continue to use this old typewriter! I wrote all of SIST on it, switching to a university computer only for the final proofs, as required. You’ll be interested to hear that my latest supplier of ye olde typewriter ribbons is a woman in England distantly related to the woman E.S. Pearson’s cousin was to marry, and if you’ve read SIST, you know how this turned out. Although the supply chain has come to a halt during the pandemic, fortunately, I have enough spare ribbons to get me through 6 more months of pandemic. I expect more in March 2022.

September 2011

- - (9/3) Frequentists in Exile: The Purpose of this Blog
  - (9/3) Overheard at the comedy hour at the Bayesian retreat
  - (9/4) Drilling Rule #1
  - (9/9) Kuru
  - (9/13) In Exile, Clinging to Old Ideas?
  - (9/15) SF conferences & E. Lehmann
  - (9/16) Getting It Right But for the Wrong Reason
    Whipping boys and Witch Hunters
  - (9/20) A Highly Anomalous Event
  - (9/23) LUCKY 13 (Critcisms)
  - (9/26) Whipping Boys and Witch Hunters
  - (9/29) Part 1: Imaginary scientist at an imaginary company, Prionvac, and an imaginary reformer

October 2011

- - (10/3) Part 2 Prionvac: The Will to Understand Power
  - (10/4) Part 3 Prionvac: How the Reformers Should Have done Their Job
  - (10/5) Formaldehyde Hearing: How to Tell the Truth With Statistically Insignificant Results
  - (10/7) Blogging the (Strong) Likelihood Principle
  - (10/10) RMM-1: Special Volume on Stat Sci Meets Phil Sci
    Dirty Hands
  - (10/10) Objectivity 1: Will the Real Junk Science Please Stand Up?
  - (10/13) Objectivity #2: The “Dirty Hands” Argument for Ethics in Evidence
  - (10/14) King Tut Includes ErrorStatistics in Top 50 Statblogs!
  - (10/16) Objectivity #3: Clean(er) Hands With Metastatistcs
  - (10/19) RMM-2: “A Conversation Between Sir David Cox & D.G. Mayo
    Sir David Cox & D. Mayo
  - (10/20) Blogging the Likelihood Principle #2: Solitary Fishing: SLP Violations
  - (10/22) The Will to Understand Power: Neyman’s Nursery (NN1)
  - (10/28) RMM-3: Special Volume on Stat Scie Meets Phl Sci (Hendry)
  - (10/30) Background Knowledge: Not to Quantify, but to Avoid Being Misled by, Subjective Beliefs
  - (10/31) Oxford Gaol: Statistical Bogeymen

November 2011

- - (11/1) RMM-4: Special Volume on Stat Scie Meets Phil Sci (Spanos)
  - (11/3) Who is Really Doing the Work?*
  - (11/5) Skeleton Key and Skeletal Points for (Esteemed) Ghost Guest
  - (11/9) Neyman’s Nursery 2: Power and Severity [Continuation of Oct. 22 Post]
  - (11/12) Neyman’s Nursery (NN) 3: SHPOWER vs POWER
  - (11/15) Logic Takes a Bit of a Hit!: (NN 4) Continuing: Shpower (“observed” power) vs Power
    Elbar grease
  - (11/18) Neyman’s Nursery (NN5): Final Post
  - (11/21) RMM-5: Special Volume on Stat Scie Meets Phil Sci (Wasserman)
  - (11/23) Elbar Grease: Return to the Comedy Hour at the Bayesian Retreat
  - (11/28) The UN Charter: double-counting and data snooping
  - (11/29) If you try sometime, you find you get what you need!

December 2011

- - (12/2) Getting Credit (or blame) for Something You Don’t Deserve (and first honorable mention)
  - (12/6) Putting the Brakes on the Breakthrough Part 1*
    Brakes on breakthrough
  - (12/7) Part II: Breaking Through the Breakthrough*
  - (12/11) Irony and Bad Faith: Deconstructing Bayesians
    J. Berger & D. Mayo
  - (12/19) Deconstructing and Deep-Drilling* 2
  - (12/22) The 3 stages of the acceptance of novel truths
  - (12/25) Little Bit of Blog Log-ic
  - (12/26) Contributed Deconstructions: Irony & Bad Faith 3
    midnight w/ Birnbaum.
  - (12/29) JIM BERGER ON JIM BERGER!
  - (12/31) Midnight With Birnbaum

January 2012

- - (1/3) Model Validation and the LLP-(Long Playing Vinyl Record)
  - (1/8) Don’t Birnbaumize that Experiment my Friend*
  - (1/10) Bad-Faith Assertions of Conflicts of Interest?*
  - (1/13) U-PHIL: “So you want to do a philosophical analysis?”
  - (1/14) “You May Believe You are a Bayesian But You Are Probably Wrong” (Extract from Senn RMM article)
  - (1/15) Mayo Philosophizes on Stephen Senn: “How Can We Culivate Senn’s-Ability?”
  - (1/17) “Philosophy of Statistics”: Nelder on Lindley
  - (1/19) RMM-6 Special Volume on Stat Sci Meets Phil Sci (Sprenger)
    no-pain philosophy
  - (1/22) U-Phil: Stephen Senn (1): C. Robert, A. Jaffe, and Mayo (brief remarks)
  - (1/23) U-Phil: Stephen Senn (2): Andrew Gelman
  - (1/24) U-Phil (3): Stephen Senn on Stephen Senn!
  - (1/26) Updating & Downdating: One of the Pieces to Pick up
  - (1/29) No-Pain Philosophy: Skepticism, Rationality, Popper, and All That: First of 3 Parts

February 2012

17 February 1890–29 July 1962

- - (2/3) Senn Again (Gelman)
  - (2/7) When Can Risk-Factor Epidemiology Provide Reliable Tests?
    N. Schachtman
  - (2/8) Guest Blogger: Interstitial Doubts About the Matrixx (Schachtman)
  - (2/8) Distortions in the Court? (PhilStat/PhilStock) **Cobb on Zilizk & McCloskey
  - (2/11) R.A. Fisher: Statistical Methods and Scientific Inference
  - (2/11) JERZY NEYMAN: Note on an Article by Sir Ronald Fisher
  - (2/12) E.S. Pearson: Statistical Concepts in Their Relation to Reality
    E. S. Pearson
  - (2/12) Guest Blogger. STEPHEN SENN: Fisher’s alternative to the alternative
  - (2/15) Guest Blogger. Aris Spanos: The Enduring Legacy of R.A. Fisher
    A. Spanos
  - (2/17) Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood
  - (2/20) Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”? (Rejected Post Feb 20)
  - (2/22) Intro to Misspecification Testing: Ordering From A Full Diagnostic Menu (part 1)
  - (2/23) Misspecification Testing: (part 2) A Fallacy of Error “Fixing”
  - (2/27) Misspecification Testing: (part 3) Subtracting-out effects “on paper”
  - (2/28) Misspecification Tests: (part 4) and brief concluding remarks

March 2012

- - (3/2) MetaBlog: March 2, 2012
  - (3/3) Statistical Science Court?
  - (3/6) Mayo, Senn, and Wasserman on Gelman’s RMM** Contribution
    Gelman
  - (3/8) Lifting a piece from Spanos’ contribution* will usefully add to the mix
  - (3/10) U-PHIL: A Further Comment on Gelman by Christian Henning (UCL, Statistics)
  - (3/11) Blogologue*
  - (3/11) RMM-7: Commentary and Response on Senn published: Special Volume on Stat Scie Meets Phil Sci
  - (3/14) Objectivity (#4) and the “Argument From Discretion”
    Mayo
  - (3/18) Objectivity (#5): Three Reactions to the Challenge of Objectivity (in inference)
  - (3/22) Generic Drugs Resistant to Lawsuits
  - (3/25) The New York Times Goes to War Against Generic Drug Manufacturers: Schactman
  - (3/26) Announcement: Philosophy of Scientific Experiment Conference
  - (3/28) Comment on the Barnard and Copas (2002) Empirical Example: Aris Spanos

April 2012

- - (4/1) Philosophy of Statistics: Retraction Watch, Vol. 1, No. 1
    N. Schachtman
  - (4/3) History and Philosophy of Evidence-Based Health Care
  - (4/4) Fallacy of Rejection and the Fallacy of Nouvelle Cuisine
    Mason
  - (4/6) Going Where the Data Take Us
  - (4/9) N. Schachtman: Judge Posner’s Digression on Regression
  - (4/10) Call for papers: Philosepi?
  - (4/12) That Promissory Note From Lehmann’s Letter; Schmidt to Speak
  - (4/15) U-Phil: Deconstructing Dynamic Dutch-Books?
  - (4/16) A. Spanos: Jerzy Neyman and his Enduring Legacy
    A. Spanos
  - (4/17) Earlier U-Phils and Deconstructions
  - (4/18) Jean Miller: Happy Sweet 16 to EGEK! (Shalizi Review: “We have Ways of Making You Talk”)
    EGEK at 16
  - (4/21) Jean Miller: Happy Sweet 16 to EGEK #2 (Hasok Chang Review of EGEK)
  - (4/23) U-Phil: Jon Williamson: Deconstructing DynamicDutch Books
  - (4/25) Matching Numbers Across Philosophies
  - (4/28) Comedy Hour at the Bayesian Retreat: P-values versus Posteriors

May 2012

- - (5/1) Stephen Senn: A Paradox of Prior Probabilities
    Comedy hour
  - (5/5) Comedy Hour at the Bayesian (Epistemology) Retreat: Highly Probable vs Highly Probed
  - (5/8) LSE Summer Seminar: Contemporary Problems in Philosophy of Statistics
  - (5/10) Excerpts from S. Senn’s Letter on “Replication, p-values and Evidence,”
  - (5/12) Saturday Night Brainstorming & Task Forces: The TFSI on
    NHST Task Force 1
    NHST
  - (5/17) Do CIs Avoid Fallacies of Tests? Reforming the Reformers
  - (5/20) Betting, Bookies and Bayes: Does it Not Matter?
  - (5/23) Does the Bayesian Diet Call For Error-Statistical Supplements?
    painting by number
  - (5/24) An Error-Statistical Philosophy of Evidence (PH500, LSE Seminar)
  - (5/28) Painting-by-Number #1
  - (5/31) Metablog: May 31, 2012

June 2012

- - (6/2) Anything Tests Can do, CIs do Better; CIs Do Anything Better than Tests?* (reforming the reformers cont.)
    C. Hennig
  - (6/6) Review of Error and Inference by C. Hennig
  - (6/9) U-Phil: Is the Use of Power* Open to a Power Paradox?
  - (6/12) CMU Workshop on Foundations for Ockham’s Razor
  - (6/14) Answer to the Homework & a New Exercise
  - (6/15) Scratch Work for a SEV Homework Problem
  - (6/17) Repost (5/17/12): Do CIs Avoid Fallacies of Tests? Reforming the Reformers
  - (6/17) G. Cumming Response: The New Statistics
  - (6/19) The Error Statistical Philosophy and The Practice of Bayesian Statistics: Comments on Gelman and Shalizi
  - (6/23) Promissory Note
  - (6/26) Deviates, Sloths, and Exiles: Philosophical Remarks on the Ockham’s Razor Workshop*
  - (6/29) Further Reflections on Simplicity: Mechanisms

July 2012

- - (7/1) PhilStatLaw: “Let’s Require Health Claims to Be ‘Evidence Based’” (Schachtman)
    Schachtman
  - (7/2) More from the Foundations of Simplicity Workshop*
  - (7/3) Elliott Sober Responds on Foundations of Simplicity
    E. Sober
  - (7/4) Comment on Falsification
  - (7/6) Vladimir Cherkassky Responds on Foundations of Simplicity
  - (7/8) Metablog: Up and Coming
  - (7/9) Stephen Senn: Randomization, ratios and rationality: rescuing the randomized clinical trial from its critics
  - (7/10) PhilStatLaw: Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence (3d ed) on Statistical Significance (Schachtman)
  - (7/11) Is Particle Physics Bad Science?
    Higgs
  - (7/12) Dennis Lindley’s “Philosophy of Statistics”
  - (7/15) Deconstructing Larry Wasserman – it starts like this…
  - (7/16) Peter Grünwald: Follow-up on Cherkassky’s Comments
  - (7/19) New Kvetch Posted 7/18/12
  - (7/21) “Always the last place you look!”
  - (7/22) Clark Glymour: The Theory of Search Is the Economics of Discovery (part 1)
    C. Glymour
  - (7/23) Clark Glymour: The Theory of Search Is the Economics of Discovery (part 2)
  - (7/27) P-values as Frequentist Measures
  - (7/28) U-PHIL: Deconstructing Larry Wasserman
    Larry Wasserman
  - (7/31) What’s in a Name? (Gelman’s blog)

August 2012

- - (8/2) Stephen Senn: Fooling the Patient: an Unethical Use of Placebo? (Phil/Stat/Med)
  - (8/5) A “Bayesian Bear” rejoinder practically writes itself…
    Bayesian bear rejoinder
  - (8/6) Bad news bears: Bayesian rejoinder
  - (8/8) U-PHIL: Aris Spanos on Larry Wasserman
  - (8/10) U-PHIL: Hennig and Gelman on Wasserman (2011)
  - (8/11) E.S. Pearson Birthday
    E.S. Pearson
  - (8/11) U-PHIL: Wasserman Replies to Spanos and Hennig
  - (8/13) U-Phil: (concluding the deconstruction) Wasserman/Mayo
  - (8/14) Good Scientist Badge of Approval?
  - (8/16) E.S. Pearson’s Statistical Philosophy
  - (8/18) A. Spanos: Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics
  - (8/20) Higgs Boson: Bayesian “Digest and Discussion”
  - (8/22) Scalar or Technicolor? S. Weinberg, “Why the Higgs?”
  - (8/27) Knowledge/evidence not captured by mathematical prob.
  - (8/30) Frequentist Pursuit
  - (8/31) Failing to Apply vs Violating the Likelihood Principle
    Comedy Hour

September 2012

- - (9/3) After dinner Bayesian comedy hour. …
  - (9/6) Stephen Senn: The nuisance parameter nuisance
  - (9/8) Metablog: One-Year Anniversary
  - (9/8) Return to the comedy hour … (on significance tests)
  - (9/12) U-Phil (9/25/12) How should “prior information” enter in statistical inference?
    Barnard
  - (9/15) More on using background info
  - (9/19) Barnard, background info/intentions
  - (9/22) Statistics and ESP research (Diaconis)
    ESP and stat
  - (9/25) Insevere tests and pseudoscience
  - (9/26) Levels of Inquiry
  - (9/29) Stephen Senn: On the (ir)relevance of stopping rules in meta-analysis
  - (9/30) Letter from George (Barnard)

October 2012

- - (10/02)PhilStatLaw: Infections in the court
  - (10/05) Metablog: Rejected posts (blog within a blog)
  - (10/05) Deconstructing Gelman, Part 1: “A Bayesian wants everybody else to be a non-Bayesian.”
    A. Gelman
  - (10/07) Deconstructing Gelman, Part 2: Using prior information
  - (10/09) Last part (3) of the deconstruction: beauty and background knowledge
  - (10/12) U-Phils: Hennig and Aktunc on Gelman 2012
  - (10/13) Mayo Responds to U-Phils on Background Information
  - (10/15) New Kvetch: race-based academics in Fla
  - (10/17) RMM-8: New Mayo paper: “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2 (Shallow vs Deep Explorations)”
  - (10/18) Query
  - (10/18) Mayo: (first 2 sections) “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2”
  - (10/20) Mayo: (section 5) “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2”
    Stat Sci & Phil Sci: 2010 LSE Conference
  - (10/21) Mayo: (section 6) “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2”
  - (10/22) Mayo: (section 7) “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2”
  - (10/24) Announcement: Ontology and Methodology (Virginia Tech)
  - (10/25) New rejected post: phil faux
  - (10/27) New rejected post: “Are you butter off now?”
    G. Gandenberger
  - (10/29) Reblogging: Oxford Gaol: Statistical Bogeymen
  - (10/29) Type 1 and 2 errors: Frankenstorm
  - (10/30) Guest Post: Greg Gandenberger, “Evidential Meaning and Methods of Inference”
  - (10/31) U-Phil: Blogging the Likelihood Principle: New Summary

November 2012

- - (11/04) PhilStat: So you’re looking for a Ph.D. dissertation topic?
    sexy statistics
  - (11/07) Seminars at the London School of Economics: Contemporary Problems in Philosophy of Statistics
  - (11/10) Bad news bears: ‘Bayesian bear’ rejoinder – reblog
  - (11/12) new rejected post: kvetch (and query)
  - (11/14) continuing the comments. …
  - (11/16) Philosophy of Science Association (PSA) 2012 Program
  - (11/18) What is Bayesian/Frequentist Inference? (from the normal deviate)
    Larry Wasserman
  - (11/18) New kvetch/PhilStock: Rapiscan Scam
  - (11/19) Comments on Wasserman’s “what is Bayesian/frequentist inference?”
  - (11/21) Irony and Bad Faith: Deconstructing Bayesians – reblog
  - (11/23) Announcement: 28 November: My Seminar at the LSE (Contemporary PhilStat)
  - (11/25) Likelihood Links [for 28 Nov. Seminar and Current U-Phil]
  - (11/28) Blogging Birnbaum: on Statistical Methods in Scientific Inference
  - (11/30) Error Statistics (brief overview)

December 2012

- - (12/2) Normal Deviate’s blog on false discovery rates
  - (12/2) Statistical Science meets Philosophy of Science
  - (12/3) Mayo Commentary on Gelman & Robert’s paper
  - (12/6) Announcement: U-Phil Extension: Blogging the Likelihood Principle
  - (12/7) Nov. Palindrome Winner: Kepler
    Thomas B. Kepler
  - (12/8) Don’t Birnbaumize that experiment my friend*–updated reblog
  - (12/11) Announcement: Prof. Stephen Senn to lead LSE grad seminar: 12-12-12
    S. Senn
  - (12/11) Mayo on S. Senn: “How Can We Cultivate Senn’s-Ability?”
  - (12/13) “Bad statistics”: crime or free speech?
  - (12/14) PhilStat/Law (“Bad Statistics” Cont.)
  - (12/17) PhilStat/Law/Stock: multiplicity and duplicity
    N. Schachtman
  - (12/19) PhilStat/Law/Stock: more on “bad statistics”: Schachtman
  - (12/21) Rejected Post: Clinical Trial Statistics Doomed by Mayan Apocalypse?
  - (12/22) Msc kvetch: unfair but lawful discrimination (vs the irresistibly attractive)
  - (12/24) 13 well-worn criticisms of significance tests (and how to avoid them)
  - (12/27) 3 msc kvetches on the blog bagel circuit
    midnight w/ Birnbaum
  - (12/30) An established probability theory for hair comparison?“–is not — and never was”
  - (12/31) Midnight with Birnbaum-reblog

January 2013

- - (1/2) Severity as a ‘Metastatistical’ Assessment
  - (1/4) Severity Calculator
  - (1/6) Guest post: Bad Pharma? (S. Senn)
  - (1/9) RCTs, skeptics, and evidence-based policy
    S. Senn
  - (1/10) James M. Buchanan
  - (1/11) Aris Spanos: James M. Buchanan: a scholar, teacher and friend
  - (1/12) Error Statistics Blog: Table of Contents
  - (1/15) Ontology & Methodology: Second call for Abstracts, Papers
    NHST task force 2
  - (1/18) New Kvetch/PhilStock
  - (1/19) Saturday Night Brainstorming and Task Forces: (2013) TFSI on NHST
  - (1/22) New PhilStock
  - (1/23) P-values as posterior odds?
    Jean Miller
  - (1/26) Coming up: December U-Phil Contributions….
  - (1/27) U-Phil: S. Fletcher & N.Jinn
  - (1/30) U-Phil: J. A. Miller: Blogging the SLP

February 2013

- - (2/2) U-Phil: Ton o’ Bricks
    A. Spanos
  - (2/4) January Palindrome Winner
  - (2/6) Mark Chang (now) gets it right about circularity
  - (2/8) From Gelman’s blog: philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics
  - (2/9) New kvetch: Filly Fury
  - (2/10) U-PHIL: Gandenberger & Hennig: Blogging Birnbaum’s Proof
  - (2/11) U-Phil: Mayo’s response to Hennig and Gandenberger
  - (2/13) Statistics as a Counter to Heavyweights…who wrote this?
  - (2/16) Fisher and Neyman after anger management?
  - (2/17) R. A. Fisher: how an outsider revolutionized statistics
  - (2/20) Fisher: from ‘Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood’
  - (2/23) Stephen Senn: Also Smith and Jones
  - (2/26) PhilStock: DO < $70
  - (2/26) Statistically speaking…
    Mayo at slots

March 2013

- - (3/1) capitalizing on chance
  - (3/4) Big Data or Pig Data?
    S. Senn
    
    pig data
  - (3/7) Stephen Senn: Casting Stones
  - (3/10) Blog Contents 2013 (Jan & Feb)
  - (3/11) S. Stanley Young: Scientific Integrity and Transparency
  - (3/13) Risk-Based Security: Knives and Axes
  - (3/15) Normal Deviate: Double Misunderstandings About
    Stan Young
    p-values
  - (3/17) Update on Higgs data analysis: statistical flukes (1)
  - (3/21) Telling the public why the Higgs particle matters
  - (3/23) Is NASA suspending public education and outreach?
  - (3/27) Higgs analysis and statistical flukes (part 2)
  - (3/31) possible progress on the comedy hour circuit?

April 2013

- - (4/1) Flawed Science and Stapel: Priming for a Backlash?
    Kent Staley
  - (4/4) Guest Post. Kent Staley: On the Five Sigma Standard in Particle Physics
    I. J. Good
  - (4/6) Who is allowed to cheat? I.J. Good and that after dinner comedy hour….
  - (4/10) Statistical flukes (3): triggering the switch to throw out 99.99% of the data
  - (4/11) O & M Conference (upcoming) and a bit more on triggering from a participant…..
    Marilyn Monroe not walking past a Higgs
  - (4/14) Does statistics have an ontology? Does it need one? (draft 2)
  - (4/19) Stephen Senn: When relevance is irrelevant
  - (4/22) Majority say no to inflight cell phone use, knives, toy bats, bow and arrows, according to survey
  - (4/23) PhilStock: Applectomy? (rejected post)
  - (4/25) Blog Contents 2013 (March)
  - (4/27) Getting Credit (or blame) for Something You
    BP oil spill comedy hour
    Didn’t Do (BP oil spill, comedy hour)
  - (4/29) What should philosophers of science do? (falsification, Higgs, statistics, Marilyn)

May 2013

- - (5/3) Schedule for Ontology & Methodology, 2013
  - (5/6) Professorships in Scandal?
  - (5/9) If it’s called the “The High Quality Research Act,” then ….
  - (5/13) ‘No-Shame’ Psychics Keep Their Predictions Vague: New Rejected post
  - (5/14) “A sense of security regarding the future of statistical science…” Anon review of Error and Inference
  - (5/18) Gandenberger on Ontology and Methodology (May 4) Conference: Virginia Tech
    onto-methodology
  - (5/19) Mayo: Meanderings on the Onto-Methodology Conference
  - (5/22) Mayo’s slides from the Onto-Meth conference
  - (5/24) Gelman sides w/ Neyman over Fisher in relation to a famous blow-up
  - (5/26) Schachtman: High, Higher, Highest Quality Research Act
    Kent Staley
  - (5/27) A.Birnbaum: Statistical Methods in Scientific Inference
  - (5/29) K. Staley: review of Error & Inference

June 2013

- - (6/1) Winner of May Palindrome Contest
  - (6/1) Some statistical dirty laundry
  - (6/5) Do CIs Avoid Fallacies of Tests? Reforming the Reformers (Reblog 5/17/12):
    Tests & CIs
  - (6/6) PhilStock: Topsy-Turvy Game
  - (6/6) Anything Tests Can do, CIs do Better; CIs Do Anything Better than Tests?* (reforming the reformers cont.)
  - (6/8) Richard Gill: “Integrity or fraud… or just questionable research practices?”
    Richard Gill
  - (6/11) Mayo: comment on the repressed memory research
  - (6/14) P-values can’t be trusted except when used to argue that p-values can’t be trusted!
  - (6/19) PhilStock: The Great Taper Caper
  - (6/19) Stanley Young: better p-values through randomization in microarrays
    Stan Young
  - (6/22) What do these share in common: m&ms, limbo stick, ovulation, Dale Carnegie? Sat night potpourri
  - (6/26) Why I am not a “dualist” in the sense of Sander Greenland
  - (6/29) Palindrome “contest” contest
  - (6/30) Blog Contents: mid-year

July 2013

- - (7/3) Phil/Stat/Law: 50 Shades of gray between error and fraud
  - (7/6) Bad news bears: ‘Bayesian bear’ rejoinder–reblog mashup
  - (7/10) PhilStatLaw: Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence (3d ed) on Statistical Significance (Schachtman)
  - (7/11) Is Particle Physics Bad Science? (memory lane)
    Larry Laudan
  - (7/13) Professor of Philosophy Resigns over Sexual Misconduct (rejected post)
  - (7/14) Stephen Senn: Indefinite irrelevance
  - (7/17) Phil/Stat/Law: What Bayesian prior should a jury have? (Schachtman)
  - (7/19) Msc Kvetch: A question on the Martin-Zimmerman case we do not hear
  - (7/20) Guest Post: Larry Laudan. Why Presuming Innocence is Not a Bayesian Prior
  - (7/23) Background Knowledge: Not to Quantify, But To Avoid Being Misled By, Subjective Beliefs
  - (7/26) New Version: On the Birnbaum argument for the SLP: Slides for JSM talk

August 2013

- - (8/1) Blogging (flogging?) the SLP: Response to Reply- Xi’an Robert
  - (8/5) At the JSM: 2013 International Year of Statistics
  - (8/6) What did Nate Silver just say? Blogging the JSM
  - (8/9) 11^th bullet, multiple choice question, and last thoughts on the JSM
  - (8/11) E.S. Pearson: “Ideas came into my head as I sat on a gate overlooking an experimental blackcurrant plot”
    Egon Pearson on a Gate (by D. Mayo)
  - (8/13) Blogging E.S. Pearson’s Statistical Philosophy
  - (8/15) A. Spanos: Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics
  - (8/17) Gandenberger: How to Do Philosophy That Matters (guest post)
  - (8/21) Blog contents: July, 2013
  - (8/22) PhilStock: Flash Freeze
  - (8/22) A critical look at “critical thinking”: deduction and induction
  - (8/28) Is being lonely unnatural for slim particles? A statistical argument
  - (8/31) Overheard at the comedy hour at the Bayesian retreat-2 years on
    significance tests saw off their own limbs-comedy

September 2013

- - (9/2) Is Bayesian Inference a Religion?
  - (9/3) Gelman’s response to my comment on Jaynes
  - (9/5) Stephen Senn: Open Season (guest post)
  - (9/7) First blog: “Did you hear the one about the frequentist…”? and “Frequentists in Exile”
  - (9/10) Peircean Induction and the Error-Correcting Thesis (Part I)
    C. S . Peirce 10 Sept. 1939
  - (9/10) (Part 2) Peircean Induction and the Error-Correcting Thesis
  - (9/12) (Part 3) Peircean Induction and the Error-Correcting Thesis
  - (9/14) “When Bayesian Inference Shatters” Owhadi, Scovel, and Sullivan (guest post)
    when Bayesian inference shatters.
  - (9/18) PhilStock: Bad news is good news on Wall St.
  - (9/18) How to hire a fraudster chauffeur
  - (9/22) Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”
  - (9/23) Barnard’s Birthday: background, likelihood principle, intentions
  - (9/24) Gelman est efffectivement une erreur statistician
  - (9/26) Blog Contents: August 2013
  - (9/29) Highly probable vs highly probed: Bayesian/ error statistical differences

October 2013

- - (10/3) Will the Real Junk Science Please Stand Up? (critical thinking)
    J. Hosiasson
  - (10/5) Was Janina Hosiasson pulling Harold Jeffreys’ leg?
  - (10/9) Bad statistics: crime or free speech (II)? Harkonen update: Phil Stat / Law /Stock
  - (10/12) Sir David Cox: a comment on the post, “Was Hosiasson pulling Jeffreys’ leg?”
    Sir David Cox
  - (10/19) Blog Contents: September 2013
  - (10/19) Bayesian Confirmation Philosophy and the Tacking Paradox (iv)*
  - (10/25) Bayesian confirmation theory: example from last post…
  - (10/26) Comedy hour at the Bayesian (epistemology) retreat: highly probable vs highly probed (vs what ?)
  - (10/31) WHIPPING BOYS AND WITCH HUNTERS

November 2013

- - (11/2) Oxford Gaol: Statistical Bogeymen
  - (11/4) Forthcoming paper on the strong likelihood principle
    Mayo Birnbaum Proof
  - (11/9) Null Effects and Replication
  - (11/9) Beware of questionable front page articles warning you to beware of questionable front page articles (iii)
  - (11/13) T. Kepler: “Trouble with ‘Trouble at the Lab’?” (guest post)
    Kepler
  - (11/16) PhilStock: No-pain bull
  - (11/16) S. Stanley Young: More Trouble with ‘Trouble in the Lab’ (Guest post)
    Stan Young
  - (11/18) Lucien Le Cam: “The Bayesians hold the Magic”
  - (11/20) Erich Lehmann: Statistician and Poet
  - (11/23) Probability that it is a statistical fluke [i]
  - (11/27) “The probability that it be a statistical fluke” [iia]
  - (11/30) Saturday night comedy at the “Bayesian Boy” diary (rejected post*)

December 2013

- - (12/3) Stephen Senn: Dawid’s Selection Paradox (guest post)
    S. Senn
  - (12/7) FDA’s New Pharmacovigilance
  - (12/9) Why ecologists might want to read more philosophy of science (UPDATED)
  - (12/11) Blog Contents for Oct and Nov 2013
  - (12/14) The error statistician has a complex, messy, subtle, ingenious piece-meal approach
  - (12/15) Surprising Facts about Surprising Facts
  - (12/19) A. Spanos lecture on “Frequentist Hypothesis Testing”
    Spanos
  - (12/24) U-Phil: Deconstructions [of J. Berger]: Irony & Bad Faith 3
  - (12/25) “Bad Arguments” (a book by Ali Almossawi)
  - (12/26) Mascots of Bayesneon statistics (rejected post)
  - (12/27) Deconstructing Larry Wasserman
  - (12/28) More on deconstructing Larry Wasserman (Aris Spanos)
  - (12/28) Wasserman on Wasserman: Update! December 28, 2013
  - (12/31) Midnight With Birnbaum (Happy New Year)

January 2014

- - (1/2) Winner of the December 2013 Palindrome Book Contest (Rejected Post)
  - (1/3) Error Statistics Philosophy: 2013
  - (1/4) Your 2014 wishing well. …
  - (1/7) “Philosophy of Statistical Inference and Modeling” New Course: Spring 2014: Mayo and Spanos: (Virginia Tech)
  - (1/11) Two Severities? (PhilSci and PhilStat)
  - (1/14) Statistical Science meets Philosophy of Science: blog beginnings
    Comedy Hour
  - (1/16) Objective/subjective, dirty hands and all that: Gelman/Wasserman blogolog (ii)
  - (1/18) Sir Harold Jeffreys’ (tail area) one-liner: Sat night comedy [draft ii]
  - (1/22) Phil6334: “Philosophy of Statistical Inference and Modeling” New Course: Spring 2014: Mayo and Spanos (Virginia Tech) UPDATE: JAN 21
  - (1/24) Phil 6334: Slides from Day #1: Four Waves in Philosophy of Statistics
  - (1/25) U-Phil (Phil 6334) How should “prior information” enter in statistical inference?
  - (1/27) Winner of the January 2014 palindrome contest (rejected post)
  - (1/29) BOSTON COLLOQUIUM FOR PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE: Revisiting the Foundations of Statistics
    Revisiting the Foundations of Statistics
  - (1/31) Phil 6334: Day #2 Slides

February 2014

- - (2/1) Comedy hour at the Bayesian (epistemology) retreat: highly probable vs highly probed (vs B-boosts)
  - (2/3) PhilStock: Bad news is bad news on Wall St. (rejected post)
  - (2/5) “Probabilism as an Obstacle to Statistical Fraud-Busting” (draft iii)
  - (2/9) Phil6334: Day #3: Feb 6, 2014
  - (2/10) Is it true that all epistemic principles can only be defended circularly? A Popperian puzzle
    Popper
  - (2/12) Phil6334: Popper self-test
    Statistical Snow Sculpture
  - (2/13) Phil 6334 Statistical Snow Sculpture
  - (2/14) January Blog Table of Contents
  - (2/15) Fisher and Neyman after anger management?
  - (2/17) R. A. Fisher: how an outsider revolutionized statistics
  - (2/18) Aris Spanos: The Enduring Legacy of R. A. Fisher
  - (2/20) R.A. Fisher: ‘Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood’
  - (2/21) STEPHEN SENN: Fisher’s alternative to the alternative
  - (2/22) Sir Harold Jeffreys’ (tail-area) one-liner: Sat night comedy [draft ii]
    Comedy Hour
  - (2/24) Phil6334: February 20, 2014 (Spanos): Day #5
  - (2/26) Winner of the February 2014 palindrome contest (rejected post)
  - (2/26) Phil6334: Feb 24, 2014: Induction, Popper and pseudoscience (Day #4)

March 2014

C. Shalizi

- - (3/1) Cosma Shalizi gets tenure (at last!) (metastat announcement)
  - (3/2) Significance tests and frequentist principles of evidence: Phil6334 Day #6
  - (3/3) Capitalizing on Chance (ii)
  - (3/4) Power, power everywhere–(it) may not be what you think! [illustration]
  - (3/8) Msc kvetch: You are fully dressed (even under you clothes)?
  - (3/8) Fallacy of Rejection and the Fallacy of Nouvelle Cuisine
  - (3/11) Phil6334 Day #7: Selection effects, the Higgs and 5 sigma, Power
  - (3/12) Get empowered to detect power howlers
  - (3/15) New SEV calculator (guest app: Durvasula)
  - (3/17) Stephen Senn: “Delta Force: To what extent is clinical relevance relevant?” (Guest Post)
    S. Senn
  - (3/19) Power taboos: Statue of Liberty, Senn, Neyman, Carnap, Severity
  - (3/22) Fallacies of statistics & statistics journalism, and how to avoid them: Summary & Slides Day #8 (Phil 6334)
  - (3/25) The Unexpected Way Philosophy Majors Are Changing The World Of Business
    J. Byrd
  - (3/26) Phil6334:Misspecification Testing: Ordering From A Full Diagnostic Menu (part 1)
  - (3/28) Severe osteometric probing of skeletal remains: John Byrd
  - (3/29) Winner of the March 2014 palindrome contest (rejected post)
  - (3/30) Phil6334: March 26, philosophy of misspecification testing (Day #9 slides)

April 2014

- - (4/1) Skeptical and enthusiastic Bayesian priors for beliefs about insane asylum renovations at Dept of Homeland Security: I’m skeptical and unenthusiastic
  - (4/3) Self-referential blogpost (conditionally accepted*)
    I. J. Good
  - (4/5) Who is allowed to cheat? I.J. Good and that after dinner comedy hour. . ..
    Richard Gill
  - (4/6) Phil6334: Duhem’s Problem, highly probable vs highly probed; Day #9 Slides
  - (4/8) “Out Damned Pseudoscience: Non-significant results are the new ‘Significant’ results!” (update)
  - (4/12) “Murder or Coincidence?” Statistical Error in Court: Richard Gill (TEDx video)
    Neyman April 16, 1894 – August 5, 1981
  - (4/14) Phil6334: Notes on Bayesian Inference: Day #11 Slides
  - (4/16) A. Spanos: Jerzy Neyman and his Enduring Legacy
  - (4/17) Duality: Confidence intervals and the severity of tests
  - (4/19) Getting Credit (or blame) for Something You Didn’t Do (BP oil spill)
  - (4/21) Phil 6334: Foundations of statistics and its consequences: Day#12
  - (4/23) Phil 6334 Visitor: S. Stanley Young, “Statistics and Scientific Integrity”
    Stan Young
  - (4/26) Reliability and Reproducibility: Fraudulent p-values through multiple testing (and other biases): S. Stanley Young (Phil 6334: Day #13)
  - (4/30) Able Stats Elba: 3 Palindrome nominees for April! (rejected post)

May 2014

- - (5/1) Putting the brakes on the breakthrough: An informal look at the
    breaking through
    argument for the Likelihood Principle
  - (5/3) You can only become coherent by ‘converting’ non-Bayesianly
  - (5/6) Winner of April Palindrome contest: Lori Wike
  - (5/7) A. Spanos: Talking back to the critics using error statistics (Phil6334)
    fraud buster
    
    A. Spanos
  - (5/10) Who ya gonna call for statistical Fraudbusting? R.A. Fisher, P-values, and error statistics (again)
  - (5/15) Scientism and Statisticism: a conference* (i)
  - (5/17) Deconstructing Andrew Gelman: “A Bayesian wants everybody else to be a non-Bayesian.”
  - (5/20) The Science Wars & the Statistics Wars: More from the Scientism workshop
    Birnbaum
  - (5/25) Blog Table of Contents: March and April 2014
  - (5/27) Allan Birnbaum, Philosophical Error Statistician: 27 May 1923 – 1 July 1976
  - (5/31) What have we learned from the Anil Potti training and test data frameworks? Part 1 (draft 2)
    Potti training

June 2014

- - (6/5) Stephen Senn: Blood Simple? The complicated and controversial world of bioequivalence (guest post)
  - (6/9) “The medical press must become irrelevant to publication of clinical trials.”
  - (6/11) A. Spanos: “Recurring controversies about P values and confidence intervals revisited”
  - (6/14) “Statistical Science and Philosophy of Science: where should they meet?”
    Sir David Hendry
  - (6/21) Big Bayes Stories? (draft ii)
  - (6/25) Blog Contents: May 2014
  - (6/28) Sir David Hendry Gets Lifetime Achievement Award
  - (6/30) Some ironies in the ‘replication crisis’ in social psychology (4^th and final installment)

July 2014

- - (7/7) Winner of June Palindrome Contest: Lori Wike
  - (7/8) Higgs Discovery 2 years on (1: “Is particle physics bad science?”)
  - (7/10) Higgs Discovery 2 years on (2: Higgs analysis and statistical flukes)
  - (7/14) “P-values overstate the evidence against the null”: legit or fallacious? (revised)
    R. Berger
  - (7/23) Continued:”P-values overstate the evidence against the null”: legit or fallacious?
  - (7/26) S. Senn: “Responder despondency: myths of personalized medicine” (Guest Post)
  - (7/31) Roger Berger on Stephen Senn’s “Blood Simple” with a response by Senn (Guest Posts)

August 2014

- - (08/03) Blogging Boston JSM2014?
  - (08/05) Neyman, Power, and Severity
  - (08/06) What did Nate Silver just say? Blogging the JSM 2013
    N. Silver
  - (08/09) Winner of July Palindrome: Manan Shah
    E.S. Pearson on the gate,
    D. Mayo sketch
  - (08/09) Blog Contents: June and July 2014
  - (08/11) Egon Pearson’s Heresy
  - (08/17) Are P Values Error Probabilities? Or, “It’s the methods, stupid!” (2^nd install)
  - (08/23) Has Philosophical Superficiality Harmed Science?
  - (08/29) BREAKING THE LAW! (of likelihood): to keep their fit measures in line (A), (B 2^nd)

September 2014

- - (9/30) Letter from George (Barnard)
    G. Barnard
  - (9/27) Should a “Fictionfactory” peepshow be barred from a festival on “Truth and Reality”? Diederik Stapel says no (rejected post)
  - (9/23) G.A. Barnard: The Bayesian “catch-all” factor: probability vs likelihood
  - (9/21) Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”
  - (9/18) Uncle Sam wants YOU to help with scientific reproducibility!
  - (9/15) A crucial missing piece in the Pistorius trial? (2): my answer (Rejected Post)
  - (9/12) “The Supernal Powers Withhold Their Hands And Let Me Alone”: C.S. Peirce
  - (9/6) Statistical Science: The Likelihood Principle issue is out…!
    The Likelihood Issue is out!
  - (9/4) All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy Contents-3 years on
  - (9/3) 3 in blog years: Sept 3 is 3rd anniversary of errorstatistics.com

October 2014

- - 10/01Oy Faye! What are the odds of not conflating simple conditional probability and likelihood with Bayesian success stories?
    Faye Flam
  - 10/05 Diederik Stapel hired to teach “social philosophy” because students got tired of success stories… or something (rejected post)
  - 10/07 A (Jan 14, 2014) interview with Sir David Cox by “Statistics Views”
  - 10/10 BREAKING THE (Royall) LAW! (of likelihood) (C)
  - 10/14Gelman recognizes his error-statistical (Bayesian) foundations
    PhilStat/Law
  - 10/18 PhilStat/Law: Nathan Schachtman: Acknowledging Multiple Comparisons in Statistical Analysis: Courts Can and Must
  - 10/22 September 2014: Blog Contents
  - 10/25 3 YEARS AGO: MONTHLY MEMORY LANE
  - 10/26 To Quarantine or not to Quarantine?: Science & Policy in the time of Ebola
  - 10/31 Oxford Gaol: Statistical Bogeymen

November 2014

Allan Franklin

- - 11/01Philosophy of Science Assoc. (PSA) symposium on Philosophy of Statistics in the Higgs Experiments “How Many Sigmas to Discovery?”
  - 11/09 “Statistical Flukes, the Higgs Discovery, and 5 Sigma” at the PSA
    Robert Cousins
  - 11/11 The Amazing Randi’s Million Dollar Challenge
  - 11/12 A biased report of the probability of a statistical fluke: Is it cheating?
  - 11/15 Why the Law of Likelihood is bankrupt–as an account of evidence
    Kent Staley
    
    D. Mayo
  - 11/18 Lucien Le Cam: “The Bayesians Hold the Magic”
  - 11/20 Erich Lehmann: Statistician and Poet
  - 11/22 Msc Kvetch: “You are a Medical Statistic”,
    Juliet Shafer, Erich Lehmann, D. Mayo
    or “How Medical Care Is Being Corrupted”
  - 11/25 How likelihoodists exaggerate evidence from statistical tests
  - 11/30 3 YEARS AGO: MONTHLY (Nov.) MEMORY LANE

December 2014

- - 12/02 My Rutgers Seminar: tomorrow, December 3, on philosophy of statistics
  - 12/04 “Probing with Severity: Beyond Bayesian Probabilism and Frequentist Performance” (Dec 3 Seminar slides)
  - 12/06 How power morcellators inadvertently spread uterine cancer
  - 12/11 Msc. Kvetch: What does it mean for a battle to be “lost by the media”?
  - 12/13 S. Stanley Young: Are there mortality co-benefits to the Clean Power Plan? It depends. (Guest Post)
  - 12/17 Announcing Kent Staley’s new book, An Introduction to the Philosophy of Science (CUP)
    Staley book
  - 12/21 Derailment: Faking Science: A true story of academic fraud, by Diederik Stapel (translated into English)
  - 12/23All I want for Chrismukkah is that critics & “reformers” quit howlers of
    Chrismukkah
    testing (after 3 yrs of blogging)! So here’s Aris Spanos “Talking Back!”
  - 12/26 3 YEARS AGO: MONTHLY (Dec.) MEMORY LANE
    Midnight w/ Birnbaum
  - 12/29 To raise the power of a test is to lower (not raise) the “hurdle” for rejecting the null (Ziliac and McCloskey 3 years on)
  - 12/31 Midnight With Birnbaum (Happy New Year)

January 2015

- - 01/02 Blog Contents: Oct.- Dec. 2014
  - 01/03 No headache power (for Deirdre)
    no-headache power
  - 01/04 Significance Levels are Made a Whipping Boy on Climate Change Evidence: Is .05 Too Strict? (Schachtman on Oreskes)
  - 01/07 “When Bayesian Inference Shatters” Owhadi, Scovel, and Sullivan (reblog)
  - 01/08 On the Brittleness of Bayesian Inference–An Update: Owhadi and Scovel (guest post)
    when…inference shatters
  - 01/12 “Only those samples which fit the model best in cross validation were included” (whistleblower) “I suspect that we likely disagree with what constitutes validation” (Potti and Nevins)
  - 01/16 Winners of the December 2014 Palindrome Contest: TWO!
  - 01/18 Power Analysis and Non-Replicability: If bad statistics is prevalent in your field, does it follow you can’t be guilty of scientific fraud?
  - 01/21Some statistical dirty laundry
    For entertainment only
  - 01/24 What do these share in common: m&ms, limbo stick, ovulation, Dale Carnegie? Sat night potpourri
  - 01/26 Trial on Anil Potti’s (clinical) Trial Scandal Postponed Because Lawyers Get the Sniffles (updated)
  - 01/27 3 YEARS AGO: (JANUARY 2012) MEMORY LANE
  - 01/31 Saturday Night Brainstorming and Task Forces: (4th draft)
    NHST task force 3

February 2015

- - 02/05 Stephen Senn: Is Pooling Fooling? (Guest Post)
  - 02/10What’s wrong with taking (1 – β)/α, as a likelihood ratio comparing H0 and H1?
  - 02/13 Induction, Popper and Pseudoscience
  - 02/16 Continuing the discussion on truncation, Bayesian convergence and testing of priors
  - 02/16 R. A. Fisher: ‘Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood’: Just before breaking up (with N-P)
  - 02/17 R. A. Fisher: How an Outsider Revolutionized Statistics (Aris Spanos)
    Jeffreys ‘one-liner’
  - 02/19 Stephen Senn: Fisher’s Alternative to the Alternative
  - 02/21 Sir Harold Jeffreys’ (tail area) one-liner: Saturday night comedy (b)
  - 02/25 3 YEARS AGO: (FEBRUARY 2012) MEMORY LANE
    Obstacles to Statistical Fraud-Busting
  - 02/27 Big Data is the New Phrenology?

March 2015

- - 03/01 “Probabilism as an Obstacle to Statistical Fraud-Busting”
  - 03/05 A puzzle about the latest test ban (or ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’)
  - 03/12 All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 3.5 years on
  - 03/16 Stephen Senn: The pathetic P-value (Guest Post)
  - 03/21 Objectivity in Statistics: “Arguments From Discretion and 3 Reactions”
  - 03/24 3 YEARS AGO (MARCH 2012): MEMORY LANE
  - 03/28 Your (very own) personalized genomic prediction varies depending on who else was around?

April 2015

- - 04/01 Are scientists really ready for ‘retraction offsets’ to advance ‘aggregate reproducibility’? (let alone ‘precautionary withdrawals’)
    Richard Morey
    
    APS 2015
  - 04/04 Joan Clarke, Turing, I.J. Good, and “that after-dinner comedy hour…”
  - 04/08 Heads I win, tails you lose? Meehl and many Popperians get this wrong (about severe tests)!
  - 04/13 Philosophy of Statistics Comes to the Big Apple! APS 2015 Annual Convention — NYC
  - 04/16 A. Spanos: Jerzy Neyman and his Enduring Legacy
  - 04/18 Neyman: Distinguishing tests of statistical hypotheses and tests of significance might have been a lapse of someone’s pen
    Andrew Gelman
    
    D. Mayo
  - 04/22 NEYMAN: “Note on an Article by Sir Ronald Fisher” (3 uses for power, Fisher’s fiducial argument)
  - 04/24 “Statistical Concepts in Their Relation to Reality” by E.S. Pearson
  - 04/27 3 YEARS AGO (APRIL 2012): MEMORY LANE
  - 04/30 96% Error in “Expert” Testimony Based on Probability of Hair Matches: It’s all Junk!

May 2015

- - 05/04 Spurious Correlations: Death by getting tangled in bedsheets and the consumption of cheese!
    P-value deformation
    (Aris Spanos)
  - 05/08 What really defies common sense (Msc kvetch on rejected posts)
  - 05/09 Stephen Senn: Double Jeopardy?: Judge Jeffreys Upholds the Law (sequel to the pathetic P-value)
  - 05/16 “Error statistical modeling and inference: Where methodology meets ontology” A. Spanos and D. Mayo
    Mayo & Spanos
  - 05/19 Workshop on Replication in the Sciences: Society for Philosophy and Psychology: (2nd part of double header)
    Stephen Senn
  - 05/24 From our “Philosophy of Statistics” session: APS 2015 convention
  - 05/27 “Intentions” is the new code word for “error probabilities”: Allan Birnbaum’s Birthday
  - 05/30 3 YEARS AGO (MAY 2012): Saturday Night Memory Lane

June 2015

- - 06/04 What Would Replication Research Under an Error Statistical Philosophy Be?
  - 06/09 “Fraudulent until proved innocent: Is this really the new “Bayesian Forensics”? (rejected post)
    Diederik Stapel
  - 6/11 Evidence can only strengthen a prior belief in low data veracity, N. Liberman & M. Denzler: “Response”
  - 06/14 Some statistical dirty laundry: The Tilberg (Stapel) Report on “Flawed Science”
  - 06/18 Can You change Your Bayesian prior? (ii)
  - 06/25 3 YEARS AGO (JUNE 2012): MEMORY LANE
  - 06/30 Stapel’s Fix for Science? Admit the story you want to tell and how you “fixed” the statistics to support it!

Larry Laudan

July 2015

- - 07/03Larry Laudan: “When the ‘Not-Guilty’ Falsely Pass for Innocent”, the Frequency of False Acquittals (guest post)
  - 07/09 Winner of the June Palindrome contest: Lori Wike
  - 07/11 Higgs discovery three years on (Higgs analysis and statistical flukes)
  - 07/14 Spot the power howler: α = ß?
  - 07/17 “Statistical Significance” According to the U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services (ii)
    Stephen Senn
  - 07/22 3 YEARS AGO (JULY 2012): MEMORY LANE
  - 07/24 Stephen Senn: Randomization, ratios and rationality: rescuing the randomized clinical trial from its critics
  - 07/29 Telling What’s True About Power, if practicing within the error-statistical tribe

August 2015

- - 08/05 Neyman: Distinguishing tests of statistical hypotheses and tests of significance might have been a lapse of someone’s pen
  - 08/08 Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”
    Aris Spanos
  - 08/11 A. Spanos: Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics
  - 08/14 Performance or Probativeness? E.S. Pearson’s Statistical Philosophy
  - 08/15 Severity in a Likelihood Text by Charles Rohde
  - 08/19 Statistics, the Spooky Science
  - 08/20 How to avoid making mountains out of molehills, using power/severity
  - 08/24 3 YEARS AGO (AUGUST 2012): MEMORY LANE
  - 08/31The Paradox of Replication, and the vindication of the P-value (but she can go deeper) 9/2/15 update (ii)
    Molehills-Mountains

September 2015

- - 09/05 All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 4 years on
  - 09/11 Peircean Induction and the Error-Correcting Thesis (Part I)
    C.S. Peirce:10 Sept,1839-
    19 April,1914
  - 09/12 (Part 2) Peircean Induction and the Error-Correcting Thesis
  - 09/14 (Part 3) Peircean Induction and the Error-Correcting Thesis
  - 09/16 Popper on pseudoscience: a comment on Pigliucci (i), (ii) 9/18, (iii) 9/20
  - 09/22 Statistical rivulets: Who wrote this?
  - 09/23 George Barnard: 100th birthday: “We need more complexity” (and coherence) in statistical education
    George Barnard
  - 09/26 G.A. Barnard: The “catch-all” factor: probability vs likelihood
  - 09/28 3 YEARS AGO (SEPTEMBER 2012): MEMORY LANE
  - 09/30 Oy Faye! What are the odds of not conflating simple conditional probability and likelihood with Bayesian success stories?

Scientist sees squirrel

October 2015

- - 10/04 Will the Real Junk Science Please Stand Up?
  - 10/07 In defense of statistical recipes, but with enriched ingredients (scientist sees squirrel)
  - 10/10 P-value madness: A puzzle about the latest test ban (or ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’)
  - 10/14 “Frequentist Accuracy of Bayesian Estimates” (Efron Webinar announcement)
    reforms without philosophy…
  - 10/18 Statistical “reforms” without philosophy are blind (v update)
  - 10/24 3 YEARS AGO (OCTOBER 2012): MEMORY LANE
  - 10/31 WHIPPING BOYS AND WITCH HUNTERS (ii)

Steven McKinney

November 201412/20

- - 11/05 S. McKinney: On Efron’s “Frequentist Accuracy of Bayesian Estimates” (Guest Post)
  - 11/09 Findings of the Office of Research Misconduct on the Duke U (Potti/Nevins) cancer trial fraud: No one is punished but the patients
  - 11/13 “What does it say about our national commitment to research integrity?”
  - 11/20 Erich Lehmann: Neyman-Pearson & Fisher on P-values
    Juliet Shafer, Erich Lehmann, D. May
  - 11/25 3 YEARS AGO (NOVEMBER 2012): MEMORY LANE
  - 11/28 Return to the Comedy Hour: P-values vs posterior probabilities (1)

December 2015

- - 12/05 Beware of questionable front page articles warning you to beware of questionable front page articles (2)
    Stephen Senn
  - 12/12 Stephen Senn: The pathetic P-value (Guest Post) [3]
  - 12/17 Gelman on ‘Gathering of philosophers and physicists unaware of modern reconciliation of Bayes and Popper’
    Andrew Gelman
  - 12/20 Stephen Senn: Double Jeopardy?: Judge Jeffreys Upholds the Law (sequel to the pathetic P-value)[4]
  - 12/26 3 YEARS AGO (DECEMBER 2012): MEMORY LANE
  - 12/31 Midnight With Birnbaum (Happy New Year)

January 2016

- - 01/02 Sir Harold Jeffreys’ (tail area) one-liner: Sat night comedy [draft ii]
  - 01/08 Preregistration Challenge: My email exchange
  - 01/10 Winner of December Palindrome: Mike Jacovides
    Houman Owhadi
    
    Clint Scovel
  - 01/11 “On the Brittleness of Bayesian Inference,” Owhadi, Scovel, and Sullivan (PUBLISHED)
  - 01/17 “P-values overstate the evidence against the null”: legit or fallacious?
  - 01/19 High error rates in discussions of error rates (1/21/16 update)
  - 01/24 Hocus pocus! Adopt a magician’s stance, if you want to reveal statistical sleights of hand
  - 01/29 3 YEARS AGO (JANUARY 2013): MEMORY LANE

February 2016

- - 02/03 Philosophy-laden meta-statistics: Is “technical activism” free of statistical philosophy? (ii)
    N. Silver
  - 02/12 Rubbing off, uncertainty, confidence, and Nate Silver
  - 02/17 Can’t Take the Fiducial Out of Fisher (if you want to understand the N-P performance philosophy) [i]
    Fisher repairing mousetraps
  - 02/20 Deconstructing the Fisher-Neyman conflict wearing fiducial glasses (continued)
  - 02/27 3 YEARS AGO (FEBRUARY 2013): MEMORY LANE
  - 02/29 Statistical Challenges in Assessing and Fostering the Reproducibility of Scientific Results

March 2016

- - 03/04 Repligate Returns (or, the non-significance of non-significant results, are the new significant results)
    ASA p-value commentary
  - 03/07 Don’t throw out the error control baby with the bad statistics bathwater
  - 03/12: “A small p-value indicates it’s improbable that the results 3are due to chance alone” –fallacious or not? (more on the ASA p-value doc)
  - 03/19: Your chance to continue the “due to chance” discussion in roomier quarters
    Aris Spanos
  - 03/22: All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 4.5 years on
  - 03/26: A. Spanos: Talking back to the critics using error statistics

April 2016

- - 04/01: Er, about those “other statistical approaches”: Hold off until a balanced critique is in?
  - 04/06: I’m speaking at Univ of Minnesota on Friday
    Jerzy Neyman
  - 04/09: Winner of March 2016 Palindrome: Manan Shah
  - 04/11: When the rejection ratio (1 – β)/α turns evidence on its head, for those practicing in an error-statistical tribe (ii)
  - 04/16: Jerzy Neyman and “Les Miserables Citations” (statistical theater in honor of his birthday)
  - 04/23: 3 YEARS AGO (MARCH & APRIL 2013): MEMORY LANE
  - 04/30: Yes, these were not (entirely) real–my five April pranks

May 2016

- - 05/02: Philosophy & Physical Computing Graduate Workshop at VT
  - 05/04: My Popper Talk at LSE: The Statistical Replication Crisis: Paradoxes and Scapegoats
    Popper Talk 2016
  - 05/09: Some bloglinks for my LSE talk tomorrow: “The Statistical Replication Crisis: Paradoxes and Scapegoats”
  - 05/10: My Slides: “The Statistical Replication Crisis: Paradoxes and Scapegoats”
    Frequentstein
  - 05/12: Excerpts from S. Senn’s Letter on “Replication, p-values and Evidence”
  - 05/14: Fallacies of Rejection, Nouvelle Cuisine, and assorted New Monsters
  - 05/22: Frequentstein: What’s wrong with (1 – β)/α as a measure of evidence against the null? (ii)
  - 05/27: Allan Birnbaum: Foundations of Probability and Statistics (27 May 1923 – 1 July 1976)
  - 05/30: 3 YEARS AGO (MAY 2013): MEMORY LANE

June 2016

- - 06/02: “A sense of security regarding the future of statistical science…” Anon review of Error and Inference
    So you banned p-values…
  - 06/05: Winner of May 2016 Palindrome Contest: Curtis Williams
  - 06/08: “So you banned p-values, how’s that working out for you?” D. Lakens exposes the consequences of a puzzling “ban” on statistical inference
  - 06/15: “Using PhilStat to Make Progress in the Replication Crisis in Psych” at Society for PhilSci in Practice (SPSP)
  - 06/19: Mayo & Parker “Using PhilStat to Make Progress in the Replication Crisis in Psych” SPSP Slides
    D. Mayo & C. Parker SPSP 2016
  - 06/22: Some statistical dirty laundry: have the stains become permanent?
  - 06/25: What do these share in common: m&ms, limbo stick, ovulation, Dale Carnegie? Are we lowering the bar?
  - 06/29: Richard Gill: “Integrity or fraud… or just questionable research practices?” (Is Gill too easy on them?)
    Allan Birnbaum

July 2016

- - 07/01: A. Birnbaum: Statistical Methods in Scientific Inference (May 27, 1923 – July 1, 1976)
  - 07/06: 3 YEARS AGO (JUNE 2013): MEMORY LANE
    Sir Karl Popper
  - 07/11: Philosophy and History of Science Announcements
  - 07/21: “Nonsignificance Plus High Power Does Not Imply Support for the Null Over the Alternative.”
  - 07/28: For Popper’s Birthday: A little Popper self-test & reading from Conjectures and Refutations
  - 07/30: 3 YEARS AGO (JULY 2013): MEMORY LANE
    Stephen Senn

August 2016

- - 08/02: S. Senn: “Painful dichotomies” (Guest Post)
  - 08/09: If you think it’s a scandal to be without statistical falsification, you will need statistical Ju
  - 08/16: Performance of Probativeness? E.S. Pearson’s Statistical Philosophy
  - (08/18) History of statistics sleuths out there? “Ideas came into my head as I sat on a gate overlooking an experimental blackcurrant plot”–No wait, it was apples, probably
    Egon Pearson on a Gate (by D. Mayo)
  - (08/21) Larry Laudan: “‘Not Guilty’: The Misleading Verdict” (Guest Post)
    Larry Laudan
  - (08/28) TragiComedy hour: P-values vs posterior probabilities vs diagnostic error rates

September 2016

- - 09/03: All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 5 years on
  - 09/09: Peircean Induction and the Error-Correcting Thesis (Part I)
  - 09/18: The Myth of ‘The Myth of Objectivity” (i)
  - 09/23: G. A. Barnard’s 101st Birthday: The Bayesian “catch-all” factor: probability vs likelihood
  - 09/28: Announcement: Scientific Misconduct and Scientific Expertise

October 2016

- - 10/01: A new front in the statistics wars? Peaceful negotiation in the face of so-called ‘methodological terrorism’
    Sir David Cox
  - 10/07: For Statistical Transparency: Reveal Multiplicity and/or Just Falsify the Test (Remark on Gelman and Colleagues)
  - 10/15: 3 YEARS AGO (OCTOBER 2013): MEMORY LANE
  - 10/20: International Prize in Statistics Awarded to Sir David Cox
  - 10/22: Formal Epistemology Workshop 2017: call for papers
  - 10/26: Philosophy of Science Association 2016 Symposium

November 2016

- - 11/01: I’ll be speaking to a biomedical group at Emory University, Nov 3
  - 11/08: Gigerenzer at the PSA: “How Fisher, Neyman-Pearson, & Bayes Were Transformed into the Null Ritual”: Comments and Queries (ii)
    Gerd Gigerenzer
  - 11/12: Taking errors seriously in forecasting elections
  - 11/19: Glymour at the PSA: “Exploratory Research is More Reliable Than Confirmatory Research”
    Clark Glymour
  - 11/28: 3 YEARS AGO (NOVEMBER 2013): MEMORY LANE
    Andrew Gelman

December 2016

- - 12/03: Gelman at the PSA: “Confirmationist and Falsificationist Paradigms in Statistical Practice”: Comments & Queries
  - 12/11: “Tests of Statistical Significance Made Sound”: excerpts from B. Haig
  - 12/19: Senn: “Placebos: it’s not only the patients that are fooled” (Guest Post)
  - 12/26: 3 YEARS AGO (DECEMBER 2013): MEMORY LANE
  - 12/30: Szucs & Ioannidis Revive the Limb-Sawing Fallacy
  - 12/31: Midnight With Birnbaum (Happy New Year 2016)

January 2017

- - 01/07: BOSTON COLLOQUIUM FOR PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE: Understanding Reproducibility & Error Correction in Science
  - 01/14: Winners of December Palindrome: Kyle Griffiths & Eileen Flanagan
  - 01/19: The “P-values overstate the evidence against the null” fallacy
  - 01/28: 3 YEARS AGO (JANUARY 2014): MEMORY LANE

Sir David Cox

February 2017

- - 02/03: High error rates in discussions of error rates: no end in sight
  - 02/07: Hocus pocus! Adopt a magician’s stance, if you want to reveal statistical sleights of hand
  - 02/12: Cox’s (1958) weighing machine example
    Aris Spanos
  - 02/16: Winner of the January 2017 Palindrome contest: Cristiano Sabiu
  - 02/17: R. A. Fisher: ‘Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood’
    R. A. Fisher
  - 02/19: Guest Blog: ARIS SPANOS: The Enduring Legacy of R. A. Fisher
  - 02/20: R.A. Fisher: “Statistical methods and Scientific Induction”
    Stephen Senn
  - 02/22: Guest Blog: STEPHEN SENN: ‘Fisher’s alternative to the alternative’
  - 02/26: R.A Fisher: “It should never be true, though it is still often said, that the conclusions are no more accurate than the data on which they are based”
  - 02/28: 3 YEARS AGO (FEBRUARY 2014): MEMORY LANE

March 2017

- - 03/08: The ASA Document on P-Values: One Year On
  - 03/13: BOSTON COLLOQUIUM FOR PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE: Understanding Reproducibility & Error Correction in Science
  - 03/26: Slides from the Boston Colloquium for Philosophy of Science: “Severe Testing: The Key to Error Correction”

April 2017

- - 04/01: Er, about those other approaches, hold off until a balanced appraisal is in
  - 04/03: Announcement: Columbia Workshop on Probability and Learning (April 8)
    Neyman, drawn by Olga
  - 04/09: 3 YEARS AGO (MARCH 2014): MEMORY LANE
  - 04/15: If you’re seeing limb-sawing in P-value logic, you’re sawing off the limbs of reductio arguments
  - 04/16: Spanos: Jerzy Neyman and his Enduring Legacy
  - 04/17: Neyman: Distinguishing tests of statistical hypotheses and tests of significance might have been a lapse of someone’s pen
  - 04/18: Jerzy Neyman and “Les Miserables Citations” (statistical theater in honor of his birthday)
  - 04/21: The Fourth Bayesian, Fiducial and Frequentist Workshop (BFF4): Harvard U
  - 04/23: Senn: “Automatic for the people? Not quite” (Guest post)

May 2017

- - 05/02: “Fusion-Confusion?” My Discussion of Nancy Reid: “BFF Four- Are we Converging?”
    Allan Birnbaum
  - 05/08: How to tell what’s true about power if you’re practicing within the error-statistical tribe
  - 05/15: 3 YEARS AGO (APRIL 2014): MEMORY LANE
  - 05/23: Frequentstein’s Bride: What’s wrong with using (1 – β)/α as a measure of evidence against the null?
  - 05/27: Allan Birnbaum: Foundations of Probability and Statistics (27 May 1923 – 1 July 1976)

June 2017

- - 06/04: 3 YEARS AGO (May 2014): MEMORY LANE
  - 06/12: Performance or Probativeness? E.S. Pearson’s Statistical Philosophy
    E.S.Pearson on Gate
  - 06/18: Can You Change Your Bayesian Prior? The one post whose comments (some of them) will appear in my new book
  - 06/25: 3 YEARS AGO (JUNE 2014): MEMORY LANE

July 2017

- - 07/01: Senn: Fishing for fakes with Fisher (Guest Post)
  - 07/11: On the current state of play in the crisis of replication in psychology: some heresies
  - 07/22: 3 YEARS AGO (JULY 2014): MEMORY LANE
  - 07/25: “A megateam of reproducibility-minded scientists” look to lowering the p-value
    blogging away…

August 2017

- - 08/10: Thieme on the theme of lowering p-value thresholds (for Slate)
  - 08/15/ Performance or Probativeness? E.S. Pearson’s Statistical Philosophy
  - 08/17/ A. Spanos: Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics
  - 08/25/ Egon Pearson’s Heresy

September 2017

- - 09/02: All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 6 years on
  - 09/10: Professor Roberta Millstein, Distinguished Marjorie Grene speaker September 15
    C. S . Peirce 10 Sept. 1939
  - 09/13: Peircean Induction and the Error-Correcting Thesis
  - 09/17: Revisiting Popper’s Demarcation of Science 2017
    Sir Karl Popper
  - 09/23: George Barnard’s birthday: stopping rules, intentions
  - 09/25: G. A. Barnard: The “catch-all” factor: probability vs likelihood

October 2017

- - 10/05: New venues for the statistics wars
  - 10/13: Statistical skepticism: How to use significance tests effectively: 7 challenges & how to respond to them
  - 10/18: Deconstructing “A World Beyond P-values”
  - 10/26: Going round and round again: a roundtable on reproducibility & lowering p-values

November 2017

- - 11/04: Yoav Benjamini, “In the world beyond p < .05: When & How to use P < .0499…”
    Erich Lehmann 20 November 1917 – 12 September 2009
  - 11/17: 3 YEARS AGO (NOVEMBER 2014): MEMORY LANE
  - 11/19: Erich Lehmann’s 100 Birthday: Neyman Pearson vs Fisher on P-values
  - 11/27: The Conversion of Subjective Bayesian, Colin Howson, & the problem of old evidence (i)

December 2017

- - 12/12: How to avoid making mountains out of molehills (using power and severity)
  - 12/17: Why significance testers should reject the argument to “redefine statistical significance”, even if they want to lower the p-value*
  - 12/27: 60 yrs of Cox’s (1958) weighing machine, & links to binge-read the Likelihood Principle
  - 12/31: Midnight With Birnbaum (Happy New Year 2017)
    Sir David Cox

January 2018

- - 01/07: 3 YEARS AGO (DECEMBER 2014): MEMORY LANE
    S. Senn
  - 01/13: Senn: Being a statistician means never having to say you are certain (Guest Post)
  - 01/23: 3 YEARS AGO (JANUARY 2015): MEMORY LANE
  - 01/30: Senn: Evidence Based or Person-centred? A Statistical debate (Guest Post)

February 2018

- - 02/10: 3 YEARS AGO (FEBRUARY 2015): MEMORY LANE
  - 02/17: Happy Birthday R.A. Fisher: ‘Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood’
    R. A. Fisher
  - 02/18: Guest Blog: STEPHEN SENN: ‘Fisher’s alternative to the alternative’
  - 02/19: A. Fisher: How an Outsider Revolutionized Statistics (Aris Spanos)
  - 02/20: A. Fisher: “Statistical methods and Scientific Induction”
  - 02/23: Can’t Take the Fiducial Out of Fisher (if you want to understand the N-P performance philosophy) [i]
  - 02/24: Deconstructing the Fisher-Neyman conflict wearing fiducial glasses (continued)

March 2018

- - 03/03: Cover/Itinerary of Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars
    SIST 2018 cover
  - 03/10: 3 YEARS AGO (MARCH 2015): MEMORY LANE
  - 03/20: Pearl: Challenging the Hegemony of Randomized Controlled Trials: Comments on Deaton and Cartwright
    Judea Pearl
  - 03/26: February Palindrome Winner: Lucas Friesen

April 2018

- - 04/01: New Warning: Proceed With Caution Until the “Alt Stat Approaches” are Evaluated
  - 04/06: 3 YEARS AGO (APRIL 2015): MEMORY LANE
  - 04/16: Neyman vs the ‘Inferential’ Probabilists continued (a)

May 2018

- - 05/01: 3 YEARS AGO (May 2015): Monthly Memory Lane
  - 05/13: Getting Up to Speed on Principles of Statistics
    Allan Birnbaum
  - 05/19: The Meaning of My Title: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars
  - 05/27: “Intentions (in your head)” is the code word for “error probabilities (of a procedure)”: Allan Birnbaum’s Birthday

June 2018

- - 06/04: Your data-driven claims must still be probed severely
  - 06/23: Replication Crises and the Statistics Wars: Hidden Controversies

July 2018

- - 07/04: Statistics and the Higgs Discovery: 5-6 yr Memory Lane
    Higgs
  - 07/11: Senn: Personal perils: are numbers needed to treat misleading us as to the scope for personalised medicine? (Guest Post)
  - 07/21: 3 YEARS AGO (JULY 2015): MEMORY LANE
  - 07/28: For Popper’s Birthday: Reading from Conjectures and Refutations (+ self-test)

August 2018

Sir David Cox

- - 08/11: Egon Pearson’s Heresy
  - 08/13: Spanos: Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics
  - 08/17: 3 YEARS AGO (AUGUST 2015): MEMORY LANE
  - 08/30: RSS 2018 – Significance Tests: Rethinking the Controversy

D. Mayo

Richard Morey

Aris Spanos

September 2018

09/04: The Physical Reality of My New Book! Here at the RSS Meeting
At the RSS meeting
09/08:Excursion 1 Tour I: Beyond Probabilism and Performance: Severity Requirement (1.1)
09/11:Excursion 1 Tour I (2nd stop): Probabilism, Performance, and Probativeness (1.2)
09/15:Excursion 1 Tour I (3rd stop): The Current State of Play in StatisticalFoundations: A View From a Hot-Air Balloon (1.3)
09/22:All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 7 years on
09/29:Excursion 2: Taboos of Induction and Falsification: Tour I (first stop)

October 2018

10/05: “It should never be true, though it is still often said, that the conclusions are no more accurate than the data on which they are based”
10/10: Excursion 2 Tour II (3rd stop): Falsiﬁcation, Pseudoscience, Induction (2.3)
10/13: Philosophy of Statistics & the Replication Crisis in Science: A philosophical intro to my book (slides)
a road through the jungle
10/16: Tour Guide Mementos (Excursion 1, Tour I of How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars)
10/21: severe testing or severe sabotage? Christian Robert and the book slasher.
10/24: A small amendment to Nuzzo’s tips for communicating p-values
10/29: Tour Guide Mementos (Excursion 1 Tour II of How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars)

November 2018

11/05:The Replication Crises and its Constructive Role in the Philosophy of Statistics-PSA2018
11/08: Souvenir C: A Severe Tester’s Translation Guide (Excursion 1 Tour II)
11/11: Stephen Senn: Rothamsted Statistics meets Lord’s Paradox (Guest Post)
Stephen Senn
11/14: Tour Guide Mementos and QUIZ 2.1 (Excursion 2 Tour I: Induction and Confirmation)
11/17: Mementos for Excursion 2 Tour II: Falsiﬁcation, Pseudoscience, Induction (2.3-2.7)
11/20: SIST* Posts: Excerpts & Mementos (to Nov 30, 2018)
11/22: Stephen Senn: On the level. Why block structure matters and its relevance to Lord’s paradox (Guest Post)
11/30: Where Are Fisher, Neyman, Pearson in 1919? Opening of Excursion 3

December 2018

12/01:Neyman-Pearson Tests: An Episode in Anglo-Polish Collaboration: Excerpt from Excursion 3 (3.2)
J. Neyman and E. Pearson
12/04:First Look at N-P Methods as Severe Tests: Water plant accident [Exhibit (i) from Excursion 3]
12/08: Memento & Quiz (on SEV): Excursion 3, Tour I
12/11: It’s the Methods, Stupid: Excerpt from Excursion 3 Tour II (Mayo 2018, CUP)
12/13:Mementos for “It’s the Methods, Stupid!” Excursion 3 Tour II (3.4-3.6)
12/16: Summer Seminar PhilStat: July 28-Aug 11, 2019 (ii)
12/20: Capability and Severity: Deeper Concepts: Excerpts From Excursion 3 Tour III
12/26: Tour Guide Mementos From Excursion 3 Tour III: Capability and Severity: Deeper Concepts
12/26: Excerpt from Excursion 4 Tour I: The Myth of “The Myth of Objectivity” (Mayo
Sir David Cox
2018, CUP)
12/29: 60 Years of Cox’s (1958) Chestnut: Excerpt from Excursion 3 Tour II (Mayo 2018, CUP)

January 2019

01/02:Mayo-Spanos Summer Seminar PhilStat: July 28-Aug 11, 2019: Instructions for Applying Now Available
PhilStat
01/03: SIST* Blog Posts: Excerpts & Mementos (to Dec 31 2018)
01/05: January Invites: Ask me questions (about SIST), Write Discussion Analyses (U-Phils)
01/10: Excerpt from Excursion 4 Tour II: 4.4 “Do P-Values Exaggerate the Evidence?”
01/13: Mementos from Excursion 4: Objectivity & Auditing: Blurbs of Tours I – IV
01/19: A letter in response to the ASA’s Statement on p-Values by Ionides, Giessing, Ritov and Page
01/22: New Course Starts Tomorrow: Current Debates on Statistical Inference and Modelings: Joint Phil and Econ
Phil 6334/ Econ 6614
01/25: (Full) Excerpt of Excursion 4 Tour I: The Myth of “The Myth of Objectivity”
01/27: 6334/6614: Captain’s Library: Biblio With Links
Captain’s Library
01/27: Protected: Participants in 6334/6614 Meeting place Jan-Feb
01/27: Excerpt from Excursion 4 Tour IV: More Auditing: Objectivity and Model Checking
01/29: Mayo Slides Meeting #1 (Phil 6334/Econ 6614, Mayo & Spanos)
01/31: Little Bit of Logic (5 mini problems for the reader)

Ship StatInfasST

February 2019

02/04:Summer Seminar in PhilStat: July 28-Aug 11
02/14: American Phil Assoc Blog: The Stat Crisis of Science: Where are the Philosophers?
02/17: Happy Birthday R.A. Fisher: ‘Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood’
R. A. Fisher
02/18: Guest Post: STEPHEN SENN: ‘Fisher’s alternative to the alternative’
02/19: R.A. Fisher: “Statistical methods and Scientific Induction”
02/20: Guest Blog: R. A. Fisher: How an Outsider Revolutionized Statistics (Aris Spanos)
02/22: Can’t Take the Fiducial Out of Fisher (if you want to understand the N-P performance philosophy) [i]
Fisher & Neyman
02/23: Deconstructing the Fisher-Neyman conflict wearing fiducial glasses + Excerpt 5.8 from SIST

March 2019

03/05: Blurbs of 16 Tours: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars (SIST)
S. Senn
03/09: S. Senn: To infinity and beyond: how big are your data, really? (guest post)
03/17: 1 Days to Apply for the Summer Seminar in Phil Stat
03/25: Diary For Statistical War Correspondents on the Latest Ban on Speech

April 2019

04/01: there’s a man at the wheel in your brain & he’s telling you what you’re allowed to say (not probability, not likelihood)
04/04: Excursion 1 Tour II: Error Probing Tools versus Logics of Evidence-Excerpt
04/12: Several reviews of Deborah Mayo’s new book, Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars « Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
04/16: A. Spanos: Jerzy Neyman and his Enduring Legacy
Aris Spanos
04/17: Jerzy Neyman and “Les Miserables Citations” (statistical theater in honor of his birthday yesterday)
04/18: Neyman vs the ‘Inferential’ Probabilists
Neyman, drawn by Olga
04/19: Neyman: Distinguishing tests of statistical hypotheses and tests of significance might have been a lapse of someone’s pen
04/23: If you like Neyman’s confidence intervals then you like N-P tests
04/27: (full) Excerpt: Excursion 5 Tour I — Power: Pre-data and Post-data (from “SIST: How to Get Beyond the Stat Wars”)

May 2019

05/04: Excerpts: Final Souvenir Z, Farewell Keepsake & List of
SIST in England
05/14: SIST: All Excerpts and Mementos: May 2018-May 2019

June 2019

06/01: Don’t let the tail wag the dog by being overly influenced by flawed statistical inferences
06/07: (Full) Excerpt. Excursion 5 Tour II: How Not to Corrupt Power (Power Taboos, Retro Power, and Shpower)
06/17: “The 2019 ASA Guide to P-values and Statistical Significance: Don’t Say What You Don’t Mean” (Some Recommendations)(ii)

July 2019

- - 07/06: The Statistics Wars: Errors
    Brian Haig
    and Casualties
  - 07/12: B. Haig: The ASA’s 2019 update on P-values and significance (ASA II)(Guest Post)
  - 07/19: The NEJM Issues New Guidelines on Statistical Reporting: Is the ASA P-Value Project Backfiring? (i)
  - 07/23: Summer Seminar in PhilStat Participants and Special Invited Speakers
    R. Morey
    
    S. Senn
N. Schachtman

A. Gelman

August 2019

08/02: S. Senn: Red herrings and the art of cause fishing: Lord’s Paradox revisited (Guest post)
Egon Pearson
08/15: Performance or Probativeness? E.S. Pearson’s Statistical Philosophy: Belated Birthday Wish
08/15: Statistical Concepts in Their Relation to Reality–E.S. Pearson
08/17: A. Spanos: Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics
08/21: Palavering about Palavering about P-values
08/30: (one year ago) RSS 2018 – Significance Tests: Rethinking the Controversy

September 2019

09/05: All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 8 years on
09/11: Gelman blogged our exchange on abandoning statistical significance
A. Gelman
09/19: (Excerpts from) ‘P-Value Thresholds: Forfeit at Your Peril’ (free access)
09/25: Hardwicke and Ioannidis, Gelman, and Mayo: P-values: Petitions, Practice, and Perils (and a question for readers)
09/30: National Academies of Science: Please Correct Your Definitions of P-values

October 2019

10/08: How My Book Begins: Beyond Probabilism and Performance: Severity Requirement
10/10: Severity: Strong vs Weak (Excursion 1 continues)
10/15: The Current State of Play in Statistical Foundations: A View From a Hot-Air Balloon
Phil Stat Summer Seminar (Thebes)
10/21: The First Eye-Opener: Error Probing Tools vs Logics of Evidence (Excursion 1 Tour II)
10/30: Exploring a new philosophy of statistics field

November 2019

11/04: On Some Self-Defeating Aspects of the ASA’s (2019) Recommendations on Statistical Significance Tests (ii)
11/14: The ASA’s P-value Project: Why it’s Doing More Harm than Good (cont from 11/4/19)
Andrea Saltelli
11/22: A. (Guest post): What can we learn from the debate on statistical significance?
11/30: P-Value Statements and Their Unintended(?) Consequences: The June 2019 ASA President’s Corner (b)

December 2019

12/13: “Les stats, c’est moi”: We take that step here! (Adopt our fav word or phil stat!)(iii)
D. R. Cox
12/24: Posts of Christmas Past (1): 13 howlers of significance tests (and how to avoid them)
12/30: 61 Years of Cox’s (1958) Chestnut: Excerpt from Excursion 3 Tour II (Mayo 2018, CUP)

January 2020

01/07: The NAS fixes its (main) mistake in defining P-values!
Aris Spanos
01/11: Aris Spanos Reviews Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get
Stephen Senn
Beyond the Statistics Wars
01/20: S. Senn: “Error point: The importance of knowing how much you don’tknow” (guest post)

February 2020

02/01: My paper, “P values on Trial” is out in Harvard Data Science Review
R. A. Fisher
02/13: Bad Statistics is Their Product: Fighting Fire With Fire (ii)
02/21: R. A. Fisher: How an Outsider Revolutionized Statistics (Aris Spanos)

March 2020

03/01: Replying to a review of Statistical Inference as Severe Testing by P. Bandyopadhyay
03/11: My Phil Stat Events at LSE
03/16: Stephen Senn: Being Just about Adjustment (Guest Post)
Corona Princess
03/26: The Corona Princess: Learning from a petri dish cruise (i)

April 2020

04/01: April 1, 2020: Memory Lane of April 1’s past
04/03: A. Spanos: Isaac Newton and his two years in quarantine: how science could germinate in bewildering ways (Guest post)
04/12: Paradigm Shift in Pandemic (Vent) Protocols?
Lung Scan
04/20: S. Senn: Randomisation is not about balance, nor about homogeneity but about randomness (Guest Post)
04/29: ‘What can psychology’s statistics reformers learn from the error-statistical perspective?’

May 2020

05/06: Part 2 of B. Haig’s ‘What can psych stat reformers learn from the error-stat perspective?’ (Bayesian stats)
Brian Haig
05/12: Final part of B. Haig’s ‘What can psych stat reformers learn from the error-stat perspective?’ (Bayesian stats)
05/19: Graduate Research Seminar: Current Controversies in Phil Stat: LSE PH 500: 21 May – 18 June 2020
05/27: Birthday of Allan Birnbaum: Foundations of Probability and Statistics (27 May 1923 – 1 July 1976)

June 2020

06/07: “On the Importance of testing a random sample (for Covid)”, an article from Significance magazine
David Hand
06/21: Bonus meeting: Graduate Research Seminar: Current Controversies in Phil Stat: LSE PH 500: 25 June 2020
06/26: David Hand: Trustworthiness of Statistical Analysis (LSE PH 500 presentation)

July 2020

07/03: Colleges & Covid-19: Time to Start Pool Testing
07/16: JSM 2020: P-values & “Statistical Significance”, August 6
Phil Stat Wars Forum
07/20: Stephen Senn: Losing Control (guest post)
07/28: JSM 2020 Panel on P-values & “Statistical Significance”

August 2020

Daniël Lakens

08/04: August 6: JSM 2020 Panel on P-values & “Statistical Significance”
08/09: New Forum on The Statistics Wars & Their Casualties: August 20, Preregistration (D. Lakens)
08/26: Statistical Crises and Their Casualties–what are they?