Dear Reader: I began this blog 10 years ago (Sept. 3, 2011)! A double celebration is taking place at the Elbar Room–remotely for the first time due to Covid– both for the blog and the 3 year anniversary of the physical appearance of my book: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars [SIST] (CUP, 2018). A special rush edition made an appearance on Sept 3, 2018 in time for the RSS meeting in Cardiff, where we had a session deconstructing the arguments against statistical significance tests (with Sir David Cox, Richard Morey and Aris Spanos). Join us between 7 and 8 pm in a drink of Elba Grease.
Many of the discussions in the book were importantly influenced (corrected and improved) by reader’s comments on the blog over the years. I posted several excerpts and mementos from SIST here. I thank readers for their input. Readers might want to look up the topics in SIST on this blog to check out the comments, and see how ideas were developed, corrected and turned into “excursions” in SIST.
I recently invited readers to weigh in on the ASA Task Force on Statistical significance and Replicationany time through September–to be part of a joint guest post (or posts). All contributors will get a free copy of SIST.
In the summer of 2019, A. Spanos and I led a Summer Seminar in Phil Stat at Virginia Tech for 15 faculty members from around the world in philosophy, psychology, and statistics. A write up is here.
In the summer of 2020 (May 21June 18), I ran a virtual LSE PH500 seminar on Current Controversies in Phil Stat. Then, for one year, I led the Phil Stat Forum monthly. Our Workshop, The Statistics Wars and Their Casualties is now postponed until 45 April at the London School of Economics.
Please peruse the 10 years of offerings below, taking advantage of the discussions by guest posters and readers. I did manage some pandemic posts on cruise ships, bats, masks and such (check 2021)
Thank you so much for your interest!
Warmest Wishes,
D. Mayo
P.S. Yes, I continue to use this old typewriter! I wrote all of SIST on it, switching to a university computer only for the final proofs, as required. You’ll be interested to hear that my latest supplier of ye olde typewriter ribbons is a woman in England distantly related to the woman E.S. Pearson’s cousin was to marry, and if you’ve read SIST, you know how this turned out. Although the supply chain has come to a halt during the pandemic, fortunately, I have enough spare ribbons to get me through 6 more months of pandemic. I expect more in March 2022.
September 2011


 (9/3) Frequentists in Exile: The Purpose of this Blog
 (9/3) Overheard at the comedy hour at the Bayesian retreat
 (9/4) Drilling Rule #1
 (9/9) Kuru
 (9/13) In Exile, Clinging to Old Ideas?
 (9/15) SF conferences & E. Lehmann
 (9/16) Getting It Right But for the Wrong Reason
 (9/20) A Highly Anomalous Event
 (9/23) LUCKY 13 (Critcisms)
 (9/26) Whipping Boys and Witch Hunters
 (9/29) Part 1: Imaginary scientist at an imaginary company, Prionvac, and an imaginary reformer

October 2011


 (10/3) Part 2 Prionvac: The Will to Understand Power
 (10/4) Part 3 Prionvac: How the Reformers Should Have done Their Job
 (10/5) Formaldehyde Hearing: How to Tell the Truth With Statistically Insignificant Results
 (10/7) Blogging the (Strong) Likelihood Principle
 (10/10) RMM1: Special Volume on Stat Sci Meets Phil Sci
 (10/10) Objectivity 1: Will the Real Junk Science Please Stand Up?
 (10/13) Objectivity #2: The “Dirty Hands” Argument for Ethics in Evidence
 (10/14) King Tut Includes ErrorStatistics in Top 50 Statblogs!
 (10/16) Objectivity #3: Clean(er) Hands With Metastatistcs
 (10/19) RMM2: “A Conversation Between Sir David Cox & D.G. Mayo
 (10/20) Blogging the Likelihood Principle #2: Solitary Fishing: SLP Violations
 (10/22) The Will to Understand Power: Neyman’s Nursery (NN1)
 (10/28) RMM3: Special Volume on Stat Scie Meets Phl Sci (Hendry)
 (10/30) Background Knowledge: Not to Quantify, but to Avoid Being Misled by, Subjective Beliefs
 (10/31) Oxford Gaol: Statistical Bogeymen

November 2011


 (11/1) RMM4: Special Volume on Stat Scie Meets Phil Sci (Spanos)
 (11/3) Who is Really Doing the Work?*
 (11/5) Skeleton Key and Skeletal Points for (Esteemed) Ghost Guest
 (11/9) Neyman’s Nursery 2: Power and Severity [Continuation of Oct. 22 Post]
 (11/12) Neyman’s Nursery (NN) 3: SHPOWER vs POWER
 (11/15) Logic Takes a Bit of a Hit!: (NN 4) Continuing: Shpower (“observed” power) vs Power
 (11/18) Neyman’s Nursery (NN5): Final Post
 (11/21) RMM5: Special Volume on Stat Scie Meets Phil Sci (Wasserman)
 (11/23) Elbar Grease: Return to the Comedy Hour at the Bayesian Retreat
 (11/28) The UN Charter: doublecounting and data snooping
 (11/29) If you try sometime, you find you get what you need!

December 2011


 (12/2) Getting Credit (or blame) for Something You Don’t Deserve (and first honorable mention)
 (12/6) Putting the Brakes on the Breakthrough Part 1*
 (12/7) Part II: Breaking Through the Breakthrough*
 (12/11) Irony and Bad Faith: Deconstructing Bayesians
 (12/19) Deconstructing and DeepDrilling* 2
 (12/22) The 3 stages of the acceptance of novel truths
 (12/25) Little Bit of Blog Logic
 (12/26) Contributed Deconstructions: Irony & Bad Faith 3
 (12/29) JIM BERGER ON JIM BERGER!
 (12/31) Midnight With Birnbaum

January 2012


 (1/3) Model Validation and the LLP(Long Playing Vinyl Record)
 (1/8) Don’t Birnbaumize that Experiment my Friend*
 (1/10) BadFaith Assertions of Conflicts of Interest?*
 (1/13) UPHIL: “So you want to do a philosophical analysis?”
 (1/14) “You May Believe You are a Bayesian But You Are Probably Wrong” (Extract from Senn RMM article)
 (1/15) Mayo Philosophizes on Stephen Senn: “How Can We Culivate Senn’sAbility?”
 (1/17) “Philosophy of Statistics”: Nelder on Lindley
 (1/19) RMM6 Special Volume on Stat Sci Meets Phil Sci (Sprenger)
 (1/22) UPhil: Stephen Senn (1): C. Robert, A. Jaffe, and Mayo (brief remarks)
 (1/23) UPhil: Stephen Senn (2): Andrew Gelman
 (1/24) UPhil (3): Stephen Senn on Stephen Senn!
 (1/26) Updating & Downdating: One of the Pieces to Pick up
 (1/29) NoPain Philosophy: Skepticism, Rationality, Popper, and All That: First of 3 Parts

February 2012


 (2/3) Senn Again (Gelman)
 (2/7) When Can RiskFactor Epidemiology Provide Reliable Tests?
 (2/8) Guest Blogger: Interstitial Doubts About the Matrixx (Schachtman)
 (2/8) Distortions in the Court? (PhilStat/PhilStock) **Cobb on Zilizk & McCloskey
 (2/11) R.A. Fisher: Statistical Methods and Scientific Inference
 (2/11) JERZY NEYMAN: Note on an Article by Sir Ronald Fisher
 (2/12) E.S. Pearson: Statistical Concepts in Their Relation to Reality
 (2/12) Guest Blogger. STEPHEN SENN: Fisher’s alternative to the alternative
 (2/15) Guest Blogger. Aris Spanos: The Enduring Legacy of R.A. Fisher
 (2/17) Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood
 (2/20) Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”? (Rejected Post Feb 20)
 (2/22) Intro to Misspecification Testing: Ordering From A Full Diagnostic Menu (part 1)
 (2/23) Misspecification Testing: (part 2) A Fallacy of Error “Fixing”
 (2/27) Misspecification Testing: (part 3) Subtractingout effects “on paper”
 (2/28) Misspecification Tests: (part 4) and brief concluding remarks

March 2012


 (3/2) MetaBlog: March 2, 2012
 (3/3) Statistical Science Court?
 (3/6) Mayo, Senn, and Wasserman on Gelman’s RMM** Contribution
 (3/8) Lifting a piece from Spanos’ contribution* will usefully add to the mix
 (3/10) UPHIL: A Further Comment on Gelman by Christian Henning (UCL, Statistics)
 (3/11) Blogologue*
 (3/11) RMM7: Commentary and Response on Senn published: Special Volume on Stat Scie Meets Phil Sci
 (3/14) Objectivity (#4) and the “Argument From Discretion”
 (3/18) Objectivity (#5): Three Reactions to the Challenge of Objectivity (in inference)
 (3/22) Generic Drugs Resistant to Lawsuits
 (3/25) The New York Times Goes to War Against Generic Drug Manufacturers: Schactman
 (3/26) Announcement: Philosophy of Scientific Experiment Conference
 (3/28) Comment on the Barnard and Copas (2002) Empirical Example: Aris Spanos

April 2012


 (4/1) Philosophy of Statistics: Retraction Watch, Vol. 1, No. 1
 (4/3) History and Philosophy of EvidenceBased Health Care
 (4/4) Fallacy of Rejection and the Fallacy of Nouvelle Cuisine
 (4/6) Going Where the Data Take Us
 (4/9) N. Schachtman: Judge Posner’s Digression on Regression
 (4/10) Call for papers: Philosepi?
 (4/12) That Promissory Note From Lehmann’s Letter; Schmidt to Speak
 (4/15) UPhil: Deconstructing Dynamic DutchBooks?
 (4/16) A. Spanos: Jerzy Neyman and his Enduring Legacy
 (4/17) Earlier UPhils and Deconstructions
 (4/18) Jean Miller: Happy Sweet 16 to EGEK! (Shalizi Review: “We have Ways of Making You Talk”)
 (4/21) Jean Miller: Happy Sweet 16 to EGEK #2 (Hasok Chang Review of EGEK)
 (4/23) UPhil: Jon Williamson: Deconstructing DynamicDutch Books
 (4/25) Matching Numbers Across Philosophies
 (4/28) Comedy Hour at the Bayesian Retreat: Pvalues versus Posteriors

May 2012


 (5/1) Stephen Senn: A Paradox of Prior Probabilities
 (5/5) Comedy Hour at the Bayesian (Epistemology) Retreat: Highly Probable vs Highly Probed
 (5/8) LSE Summer Seminar: Contemporary Problems in Philosophy of Statistics
 (5/10) Excerpts from S. Senn’s Letter on “Replication, pvalues and Evidence,”
 (5/12) Saturday Night Brainstorming & Task Forces: The TFSI on NHST
 (5/17) Do CIs Avoid Fallacies of Tests? Reforming the Reformers
 (5/20) Betting, Bookies and Bayes: Does it Not Matter?
 (5/23) Does the Bayesian Diet Call For ErrorStatistical Supplements?
 (5/24) An ErrorStatistical Philosophy of Evidence (PH500, LSE Seminar)
 (5/28) PaintingbyNumber #1
 (5/31) Metablog: May 31, 2012

June 2012


 (6/2) Anything Tests Can do, CIs do Better; CIs Do Anything Better than Tests?* (reforming the reformers cont.)
 (6/6) Review of Error and Inference by C. Hennig
 (6/9) UPhil: Is the Use of Power* Open to a Power Paradox?
 (6/12) CMU Workshop on Foundations for Ockham’s Razor
 (6/14) Answer to the Homework & a New Exercise
 (6/15) Scratch Work for a SEV Homework Problem
 (6/17) Repost (5/17/12): Do CIs Avoid Fallacies of Tests? Reforming the Reformers
 (6/17) G. Cumming Response: The New Statistics
 (6/19) The Error Statistical Philosophy and The Practice of Bayesian Statistics: Comments on Gelman and Shalizi
 (6/23) Promissory Note
 (6/26) Deviates, Sloths, and Exiles: Philosophical Remarks on the Ockham’s Razor Workshop*
 (6/29) Further Reflections on Simplicity: Mechanisms

July 2012


 (7/1) PhilStatLaw: “Let’s Require Health Claims to Be ‘Evidence Based’” (Schachtman)
 (7/2) More from the Foundations of Simplicity Workshop*
 (7/3) Elliott Sober Responds on Foundations of Simplicity
 (7/4) Comment on Falsification
 (7/6) Vladimir Cherkassky Responds on Foundations of Simplicity
 (7/8) Metablog: Up and Coming
 (7/9) Stephen Senn: Randomization, ratios and rationality: rescuing the randomized clinical trial from its critics
 (7/10) PhilStatLaw: Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence (3d ed) on Statistical Significance (Schachtman)
 (7/11) Is Particle Physics Bad Science?
 (7/12) Dennis Lindley’s “Philosophy of Statistics”
 (7/15) Deconstructing Larry Wasserman – it starts like this…
 (7/16) Peter Grünwald: Followup on Cherkassky’s Comments
 (7/19) New Kvetch Posted 7/18/12
 (7/21) “Always the last place you look!”
 (7/22) Clark Glymour: The Theory of Search Is the Economics of Discovery (part 1)
 (7/23) Clark Glymour: The Theory of Search Is the Economics of Discovery (part 2)
 (7/27) Pvalues as Frequentist Measures
 (7/28) UPHIL: Deconstructing Larry Wasserman
 (7/31) What’s in a Name? (Gelman’s blog)

August 2012


 (8/2) Stephen Senn: Fooling the Patient: an Unethical Use of Placebo? (Phil/Stat/Med)
 (8/5) A “Bayesian Bear” rejoinder practically writes itself…
 (8/6) Bad news bears: Bayesian rejoinder
 (8/8) UPHIL: Aris Spanos on Larry Wasserman
 (8/10) UPHIL: Hennig and Gelman on Wasserman (2011)
 (8/11) E.S. Pearson Birthday
 (8/11) UPHIL: Wasserman Replies to Spanos and Hennig
 (8/13) UPhil: (concluding the deconstruction) Wasserman/Mayo
 (8/14) Good Scientist Badge of Approval?
 (8/16) E.S. Pearson’s Statistical Philosophy
 (8/18) A. Spanos: Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics
 (8/20) Higgs Boson: Bayesian “Digest and Discussion”
 (8/22) Scalar or Technicolor? S. Weinberg, “Why the Higgs?”
 (8/27) Knowledge/evidence not captured by mathematical prob.
 (8/30) Frequentist Pursuit
 (8/31) Failing to Apply vs Violating the Likelihood Principle

September 2012


 (9/3) After dinner Bayesian comedy hour. …
 (9/6) Stephen Senn: The nuisance parameter nuisance
 (9/8) Metablog: OneYear Anniversary
 (9/8) Return to the comedy hour … (on significance tests)
 (9/12) UPhil (9/25/12) How should “prior information” enter in statistical inference?
 (9/15) More on using background info
 (9/19) Barnard, background info/intentions
 (9/22) Statistics and ESP research (Diaconis)
 (9/25) Insevere tests and pseudoscience
 (9/26) Levels of Inquiry
 (9/29) Stephen Senn: On the (ir)relevance of stopping rules in metaanalysis
 (9/30) Letter from George (Barnard)

October 2012


 (10/02)PhilStatLaw: Infections in the court
 (10/05) Metablog: Rejected posts (blog within a blog)
 (10/05) Deconstructing Gelman, Part 1: “A Bayesian wants everybody else to be a nonBayesian.”
 (10/07) Deconstructing Gelman, Part 2: Using prior information
 (10/09) Last part (3) of the deconstruction: beauty and background knowledge
 (10/12) UPhils: Hennig and Aktunc on Gelman 2012
 (10/13) Mayo Responds to UPhils on Background Information
 (10/15) New Kvetch: racebased academics in Fla
 (10/17) RMM8: New Mayo paper: “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2 (Shallow vs Deep Explorations)”
 (10/18) Query
 (10/18) Mayo: (first 2 sections) “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2”
 (10/20) Mayo: (section 5) “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2”
 (10/21) Mayo: (section 6) “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2”
 (10/22) Mayo: (section 7) “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2”
 (10/24) Announcement: Ontology and Methodology (Virginia Tech)
 (10/25) New rejected post: phil faux
 (10/27) New rejected post: “Are you butter off now?”
 (10/29) Reblogging: Oxford Gaol: Statistical Bogeymen
 (10/29) Type 1 and 2 errors: Frankenstorm
 (10/30) Guest Post: Greg Gandenberger, “Evidential Meaning and Methods of Inference”
 (10/31) UPhil: Blogging the Likelihood Principle: New Summary

November 2012


 (11/04) PhilStat: So you’re looking for a Ph.D. dissertation topic?
 (11/07) Seminars at the London School of Economics: Contemporary Problems in Philosophy of Statistics
 (11/10) Bad news bears: ‘Bayesian bear’ rejoinder – reblog
 (11/12) new rejected post: kvetch (and query)
 (11/14) continuing the comments. …
 (11/16) Philosophy of Science Association (PSA) 2012 Program
 (11/18) What is Bayesian/Frequentist Inference? (from the normal deviate)
 (11/18) New kvetch/PhilStock: Rapiscan Scam
 (11/19) Comments on Wasserman’s “what is Bayesian/frequentist inference?”
 (11/21) Irony and Bad Faith: Deconstructing Bayesians – reblog
 (11/23) Announcement: 28 November: My Seminar at the LSE (Contemporary PhilStat)
 (11/25) Likelihood Links [for 28 Nov. Seminar and Current UPhil]
 (11/28) Blogging Birnbaum: on Statistical Methods in Scientific Inference
 (11/30) Error Statistics (brief overview)

December 2012


 (12/2) Normal Deviate’s blog on false discovery rates
 (12/2) Statistical Science meets Philosophy of Science
 (12/3) Mayo Commentary on Gelman & Robert’s paper
 (12/6) Announcement: UPhil Extension: Blogging the Likelihood Principle
 (12/7) Nov. Palindrome Winner: Kepler
 (12/8) Don’t Birnbaumize that experiment my friend*–updated reblog
 (12/11) Announcement: Prof. Stephen Senn to lead LSE grad seminar: 121212
 (12/11) Mayo on S. Senn: “How Can We Cultivate Senn’sAbility?”
 (12/13) “Bad statistics”: crime or free speech?
 (12/14) PhilStat/Law (“Bad Statistics” Cont.)
 (12/17) PhilStat/Law/Stock: multiplicity and duplicity
 (12/19) PhilStat/Law/Stock: more on “bad statistics”: Schachtman
 (12/21) Rejected Post: Clinical Trial Statistics Doomed by Mayan Apocalypse?
 (12/22) Msc kvetch: unfair but lawful discrimination (vs the irresistibly attractive)
 (12/24) 13 wellworn criticisms of significance tests (and how to avoid them)
 (12/27) 3 msc kvetches on the blog bagel circuit
 (12/30) An established probability theory for hair comparison?“–is not — and never was”
 (12/31) Midnight with Birnbaumreblog

January 2013


 (1/2) Severity as a ‘Metastatistical’ Assessment
 (1/4) Severity Calculator
 (1/6) Guest post: Bad Pharma? (S. Senn)
 (1/9) RCTs, skeptics, and evidencebased policy
 (1/10) James M. Buchanan
 (1/11) Aris Spanos: James M. Buchanan: a scholar, teacher and friend
 (1/12) Error Statistics Blog: Table of Contents
 (1/15) Ontology & Methodology: Second call for Abstracts, Papers
 (1/18) New Kvetch/PhilStock
 (1/19) Saturday Night Brainstorming and Task Forces: (2013) TFSI on NHST
 (1/22) New PhilStock
 (1/23) Pvalues as posterior odds?
 (1/26) Coming up: December UPhil Contributions….
 (1/27) UPhil: S. Fletcher & N.Jinn
 (1/30) UPhil: J. A. Miller: Blogging the SLP

February 2013


 (2/2) UPhil: Ton o’ Bricks
 (2/4) January Palindrome Winner
 (2/6) Mark Chang (now) gets it right about circularity
 (2/8) From Gelman’s blog: philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics
 (2/9) New kvetch: Filly Fury
 (2/10) UPHIL: Gandenberger & Hennig: Blogging Birnbaum’s Proof
 (2/11) UPhil: Mayo’s response to Hennig and Gandenberger
 (2/13) Statistics as a Counter to Heavyweights…who wrote this?
 (2/16) Fisher and Neyman after anger management?
 (2/17) R. A. Fisher: how an outsider revolutionized statistics
 (2/20) Fisher: from ‘Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood’
 (2/23) Stephen Senn: Also Smith and Jones
 (2/26) PhilStock: DO < $70
 (2/26) Statistically speaking…

March 2013


 (3/1) capitalizing on chance
 (3/4) Big Data or Pig Data?
 (3/7) Stephen Senn: Casting Stones
 (3/10) Blog Contents 2013 (Jan & Feb)
 (3/11) S. Stanley Young: Scientific Integrity and Transparency
 (3/13) RiskBased Security: Knives and Axes
 (3/15) Normal Deviate: Double Misunderstandings About pvalues
 (3/17) Update on Higgs data analysis: statistical flukes (1)
 (3/21) Telling the public why the Higgs particle matters
 (3/23) Is NASA suspending public education and outreach?
 (3/27) Higgs analysis and statistical flukes (part 2)
 (3/31) possible progress on the comedy hour circuit?

April 2013


 (4/1) Flawed Science and Stapel: Priming for a Backlash?
 (4/4) Guest Post. Kent Staley: On the Five Sigma Standard in Particle Physics
 (4/6) Who is allowed to cheat? I.J. Good and that after dinner comedy hour….
 (4/10) Statistical flukes (3): triggering the switch to throw out 99.99% of the data
 (4/11) O & M Conference (upcoming) and a bit more on triggering from a participant…..
 (4/14) Does statistics have an ontology? Does it need one? (draft 2)
 (4/19) Stephen Senn: When relevance is irrelevant
 (4/22) Majority say no to inflight cell phone use, knives, toy bats, bow and arrows, according to survey
 (4/23) PhilStock: Applectomy? (rejected post)
 (4/25) Blog Contents 2013 (March)
 (4/27) Getting Credit (or blame) for Something You Didn’t Do (BP oil spill, comedy hour)
 (4/29) What should philosophers of science do? (falsification, Higgs, statistics, Marilyn)

May 2013


 (5/3) Schedule for Ontology & Methodology, 2013
 (5/6) Professorships in Scandal?
 (5/9) If it’s called the “The High Quality Research Act,” then ….
 (5/13) ‘NoShame’ Psychics Keep Their Predictions Vague: New Rejected post
 (5/14) “A sense of security regarding the future of statistical science…” Anon review of Error and Inference
 (5/18) Gandenberger on Ontology and Methodology (May 4) Conference: Virginia Tech
 (5/19) Mayo: Meanderings on the OntoMethodology Conference
 (5/22) Mayo’s slides from the OntoMeth conference
 (5/24) Gelman sides w/ Neyman over Fisher in relation to a famous blowup
 (5/26) Schachtman: High, Higher, Highest Quality Research Act
 (5/27) A.Birnbaum: Statistical Methods in Scientific Inference
 (5/29) K. Staley: review of Error & Inference

June 2013


 (6/1) Winner of May Palindrome Contest
 (6/1) Some statistical dirty laundry
 (6/5) Do CIs Avoid Fallacies of Tests? Reforming the Reformers (Reblog 5/17/12):
 (6/6) PhilStock: TopsyTurvy Game
 (6/6) Anything Tests Can do, CIs do Better; CIs Do Anything Better than Tests?* (reforming the reformers cont.)
 (6/8) Richard Gill: “Integrity or fraud… or just questionable research practices?”
 (6/11) Mayo: comment on the repressed memory research
 (6/14) Pvalues can’t be trusted except when used to argue that pvalues can’t be trusted!
 (6/19) PhilStock: The Great Taper Caper
 (6/19) Stanley Young: better pvalues through randomization in microarrays
 (6/22) What do these share in common: m&ms, limbo stick, ovulation, Dale Carnegie? Sat night potpourri
 (6/26) Why I am not a “dualist” in the sense of Sander Greenland
 (6/29) Palindrome “contest” contest
 (6/30) Blog Contents: midyear

July 2013


 (7/3) Phil/Stat/Law: 50 Shades of gray between error and fraud
 (7/6) Bad news bears: ‘Bayesian bear’ rejoinder–reblog mashup
 (7/10) PhilStatLaw: Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence (3d ed) on Statistical Significance (Schachtman)
 (7/11) Is Particle Physics Bad Science? (memory lane)
 (7/13) Professor of Philosophy Resigns over Sexual Misconduct (rejected post)
 (7/14) Stephen Senn: Indefinite irrelevance
 (7/17) Phil/Stat/Law: What Bayesian prior should a jury have? (Schachtman)
 (7/19) Msc Kvetch: A question on the MartinZimmerman case we do not hear
 (7/20) Guest Post: Larry Laudan. Why Presuming Innocence is Not a Bayesian Prior
 (7/23) Background Knowledge: Not to Quantify, But To Avoid Being Misled By, Subjective Beliefs
 (7/26) New Version: On the Birnbaum argument for the SLP: Slides for JSM talk

August 2013


 (8/1) Blogging (flogging?) the SLP: Response to Reply Xi’an Robert
 (8/5) At the JSM: 2013 International Year of Statistics
 (8/6) What did Nate Silver just say? Blogging the JSM
 (8/9) 11^{th} bullet, multiple choice question, and last thoughts on the JSM
 (8/11) E.S. Pearson: “Ideas came into my head as I sat on a gate overlooking an experimental blackcurrant plot”
 (8/13) Blogging E.S. Pearson’s Statistical Philosophy
 (8/15) A. Spanos: Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics
 (8/17) Gandenberger: How to Do Philosophy That Matters (guest post)
 (8/21) Blog contents: July, 2013
 (8/22) PhilStock: Flash Freeze
 (8/22) A critical look at “critical thinking”: deduction and induction
 (8/28) Is being lonely unnatural for slim particles? A statistical argument
 (8/31) Overheard at the comedy hour at the Bayesian retreat2 years on

September 2013


 (9/2) Is Bayesian Inference a Religion?
 (9/3) Gelman’s response to my comment on Jaynes
 (9/5) Stephen Senn: Open Season (guest post)
 (9/7) First blog: “Did you hear the one about the frequentist…”? and “Frequentists in Exile”
 (9/10) Peircean Induction and the ErrorCorrecting Thesis (Part I)
 (9/10) (Part 2) Peircean Induction and the ErrorCorrecting Thesis
 (9/12) (Part 3) Peircean Induction and the ErrorCorrecting Thesis
 (9/14) “When Bayesian Inference Shatters” Owhadi, Scovel, and Sullivan (guest post)
 (9/18) PhilStock: Bad news is good news on Wall St.
 (9/18) How to hire a fraudster chauffeur
 (9/22) Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”
 (9/23) Barnard’s Birthday: background, likelihood principle, intentions
 (9/24) Gelman est efffectivement une erreur statistician
 (9/26) Blog Contents: August 2013
 (9/29) Highly probable vs highly probed: Bayesian/ error statistical differences

October 2013


 (10/3) Will the Real Junk Science Please Stand Up? (critical thinking)
 (10/5) Was Janina Hosiasson pulling Harold Jeffreys’ leg?
 (10/9) Bad statistics: crime or free speech (II)? Harkonen update: Phil Stat / Law /Stock
 (10/12) Sir David Cox: a comment on the post, “Was Hosiasson pulling Jeffreys’ leg?”
 (10/19) Blog Contents: September 2013
 (10/19) Bayesian Confirmation Philosophy and the Tacking Paradox (iv)*
 (10/25) Bayesian confirmation theory: example from last post…
 (10/26) Comedy hour at the Bayesian (epistemology) retreat: highly probable vs highly probed (vs what ?)
 (10/31) WHIPPING BOYS AND WITCH HUNTERS

November 2013


 (11/2) Oxford Gaol: Statistical Bogeymen
 (11/4) Forthcoming paper on the strong likelihood principle
 (11/9) Null Effects and Replication
 (11/9) Beware of questionable front page articles warning you to beware of questionable front page articles (iii)
 (11/13) T. Kepler: “Trouble with ‘Trouble at the Lab’?” (guest post)
 (11/16) PhilStock: Nopain bull
 (11/16) S. Stanley Young: More Trouble with ‘Trouble in the Lab’ (Guest post)
 (11/18) Lucien Le Cam: “The Bayesians hold the Magic”
 (11/20) Erich Lehmann: Statistician and Poet
 (11/23) Probability that it is a statistical fluke [i]
 (11/27) “The probability that it be a statistical fluke” [iia]
 (11/30) Saturday night comedy at the “Bayesian Boy” diary (rejected post*)

December 2013


 (12/3) Stephen Senn: Dawid’s Selection Paradox (guest post)
 (12/7) FDA’s New Pharmacovigilance
 (12/9) Why ecologists might want to read more philosophy of science (UPDATED)
 (12/11) Blog Contents for Oct and Nov 2013
 (12/14) The error statistician has a complex, messy, subtle, ingenious piecemeal approach
 (12/15) Surprising Facts about Surprising Facts
 (12/19) A. Spanos lecture on “Frequentist Hypothesis Testing”
 (12/24) UPhil: Deconstructions [of J. Berger]: Irony & Bad Faith 3
 (12/25) “Bad Arguments” (a book by Ali Almossawi)
 (12/26) Mascots of Bayesneon statistics (rejected post)
 (12/27) Deconstructing Larry Wasserman
 (12/28) More on deconstructing Larry Wasserman (Aris Spanos)
 (12/28) Wasserman on Wasserman: Update! December 28, 2013
 (12/31) Midnight With Birnbaum (Happy New Year)

January 2014


 (1/2) Winner of the December 2013 Palindrome Book Contest (Rejected Post)
 (1/3) Error Statistics Philosophy: 2013
 (1/4) Your 2014 wishing well. …
 (1/7) “Philosophy of Statistical Inference and Modeling” New Course: Spring 2014: Mayo and Spanos: (Virginia Tech)
 (1/11) Two Severities? (PhilSci and PhilStat)
 (1/14) Statistical Science meets Philosophy of Science: blog beginnings
 (1/16) Objective/subjective, dirty hands and all that: Gelman/Wasserman blogolog (ii)
 (1/18) Sir Harold Jeffreys’ (tail area) oneliner: Sat night comedy [draft ii]
 (1/22) Phil6334: “Philosophy of Statistical Inference and Modeling” New Course: Spring 2014: Mayo and Spanos (Virginia Tech) UPDATE: JAN 21
 (1/24) Phil 6334: Slides from Day #1: Four Waves in Philosophy of Statistics
 (1/25) UPhil (Phil 6334) How should “prior information” enter in statistical inference?
 (1/27) Winner of the January 2014 palindrome contest (rejected post)
 (1/29) BOSTON COLLOQUIUM FOR PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE: Revisiting the Foundations of Statistics
 (1/31) Phil 6334: Day #2 Slides

February 2014


 (2/1) Comedy hour at the Bayesian (epistemology) retreat: highly probable vs highly probed (vs Bboosts)
 (2/3) PhilStock: Bad news is bad news on Wall St. (rejected post)
 (2/5) “Probabilism as an Obstacle to Statistical FraudBusting” (draft iii)
 (2/9) Phil6334: Day #3: Feb 6, 2014
 (2/10) Is it true that all epistemic principles can only be defended circularly? A Popperian puzzle
 (2/12) Phil6334: Popper selftest
 (2/13) Phil 6334 Statistical Snow Sculpture
 (2/14) January Blog Table of Contents
 (2/15) Fisher and Neyman after anger management?
 (2/17) R. A. Fisher: how an outsider revolutionized statistics
 (2/18) Aris Spanos: The Enduring Legacy of R. A. Fisher
 (2/20) R.A. Fisher: ‘Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood’
 (2/21) STEPHEN SENN: Fisher’s alternative to the alternative
 (2/22) Sir Harold Jeffreys’ (tailarea) oneliner: Sat night comedy [draft ii]
 (2/24) Phil6334: February 20, 2014 (Spanos): Day #5
 (2/26) Winner of the February 2014 palindrome contest (rejected post)
 (2/26) Phil6334: Feb 24, 2014: Induction, Popper and pseudoscience (Day #4)

March 2014


 (3/1) Cosma Shalizi gets tenure (at last!) (metastat announcement)
 (3/2) Significance tests and frequentist principles of evidence: Phil6334 Day #6
 (3/3) Capitalizing on Chance (ii)
 (3/4) Power, power everywhere–(it) may not be what you think! [illustration]
 (3/8) Msc kvetch: You are fully dressed (even under you clothes)?
 (3/8) Fallacy of Rejection and the Fallacy of Nouvelle Cuisine
 (3/11) Phil6334 Day #7: Selection effects, the Higgs and 5 sigma, Power
 (3/12) Get empowered to detect power howlers
 (3/15) New SEV calculator (guest app: Durvasula)
 (3/17) Stephen Senn: “Delta Force: To what extent is clinical relevance relevant?” (Guest Post)
 (3/19) Power taboos: Statue of Liberty, Senn, Neyman, Carnap, Severity
 (3/22) Fallacies of statistics & statistics journalism, and how to avoid them: Summary & Slides Day #8 (Phil 6334)
 (3/25) The Unexpected Way Philosophy Majors Are Changing The World Of Business
 (3/26) Phil6334:Misspecification Testing: Ordering From A Full Diagnostic Menu (part 1)
 (3/28) Severe osteometric probing of skeletal remains: John Byrd
 (3/29) Winner of the March 2014 palindrome contest (rejected post)
 (3/30) Phil6334: March 26, philosophy of misspecification testing (Day #9 slides)

April 2014


 (4/1) Skeptical and enthusiastic Bayesian priors for beliefs about insane asylum renovations at Dept of Homeland Security: I’m skeptical and unenthusiastic
 (4/3) Selfreferential blogpost (conditionally accepted*)
 (4/5) Who is allowed to cheat? I.J. Good and that after dinner comedy hour. . ..
 (4/6) Phil6334: Duhem’s Problem, highly probable vs highly probed; Day #9 Slides
 (4/8) “Out Damned Pseudoscience: Nonsignificant results are the new ‘Significant’ results!” (update)
 (4/12) “Murder or Coincidence?” Statistical Error in Court: Richard Gill (TEDx video)
 (4/14) Phil6334: Notes on Bayesian Inference: Day #11 Slides
 (4/16) A. Spanos: Jerzy Neyman and his Enduring Legacy
 (4/17) Duality: Confidence intervals and the severity of tests
 (4/19) Getting Credit (or blame) for Something You Didn’t Do (BP oil spill)
 (4/21) Phil 6334: Foundations of statistics and its consequences: Day#12
 (4/23) Phil 6334 Visitor: S. Stanley Young, “Statistics and Scientific Integrity”
 (4/26) Reliability and Reproducibility: Fraudulent pvalues through multiple testing (and other biases): S. Stanley Young (Phil 6334: Day #13)
 (4/30) Able Stats Elba: 3 Palindrome nominees for April! (rejected post)

May 2014


 (5/1) Putting the brakes on the breakthrough: An informal look at the argument for the Likelihood Principle
 (5/3) You can only become coherent by ‘converting’ nonBayesianly
 (5/6) Winner of April Palindrome contest: Lori Wike
 (5/7) A. Spanos: Talking back to the critics using error statistics (Phil6334)
 (5/10) Who ya gonna call for statistical Fraudbusting? R.A. Fisher, Pvalues, and error statistics (again)
 (5/15) Scientism and Statisticism: a conference* (i)
 (5/17) Deconstructing Andrew Gelman: “A Bayesian wants everybody else to be a nonBayesian.”
 (5/20) The Science Wars & the Statistics Wars: More from the Scientism workshop
 (5/25) Blog Table of Contents: March and April 2014
 (5/27) Allan Birnbaum, Philosophical Error Statistician: 27 May 1923 – 1 July 1976
 (5/31) What have we learned from the Anil Potti training and test data frameworks? Part 1 (draft 2)

June 2014


 (6/5) Stephen Senn: Blood Simple? The complicated and controversial world of bioequivalence (guest post)
 (6/9) “The medical press must become irrelevant to publication of clinical trials.”
 (6/11) A. Spanos: “Recurring controversies about P values and confidence intervals revisited”
 (6/14) “Statistical Science and Philosophy of Science: where should they meet?”
 (6/21) Big Bayes Stories? (draft ii)
 (6/25) Blog Contents: May 2014
 (6/28) Sir David Hendry Gets Lifetime Achievement Award
 (6/30) Some ironies in the ‘replication crisis’ in social psychology (4^{th} and final installment)

July 2014


 (7/7) Winner of June Palindrome Contest: Lori Wike
 (7/8) Higgs Discovery 2 years on (1: “Is particle physics bad science?”)
 (7/10) Higgs Discovery 2 years on (2: Higgs analysis and statistical flukes)
 (7/14) “Pvalues overstate the evidence against the null”: legit or fallacious? (revised)
 (7/23) Continued:”Pvalues overstate the evidence against the null”: legit or fallacious?
 (7/26) S. Senn: “Responder despondency: myths of personalized medicine” (Guest Post)
 (7/31) Roger Berger on Stephen Senn’s “Blood Simple” with a response by Senn (Guest Posts)

August 2014


 (08/03) Blogging Boston JSM2014?
 (08/05) Neyman, Power, and Severity
 (08/06) What did Nate Silver just say? Blogging the JSM 2013
 (08/09) Winner of July Palindrome: Manan Shah
 (08/09) Blog Contents: June and July 2014
 (08/11) Egon Pearson’s Heresy
 (08/17) Are P Values Error Probabilities? Or, “It’s the methods, stupid!” (2^{nd} install)
 (08/23) Has Philosophical Superficiality Harmed Science?
 (08/29) BREAKING THE LAW! (of likelihood): to keep their fit measures in line (A), (B 2^{nd})

September 2014


 (9/30) Letter from George (Barnard)
 (9/27) Should a “Fictionfactory” peepshow be barred from a festival on “Truth and Reality”? Diederik Stapel says no (rejected post)
 (9/23) G.A. Barnard: The Bayesian “catchall” factor: probability vs likelihood
 (9/21) Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”
 (9/18) Uncle Sam wants YOU to help with scientific reproducibility!
 (9/15) A crucial missing piece in the Pistorius trial? (2): my answer (Rejected Post)
 (9/12) “The Supernal Powers Withhold Their Hands And Let Me Alone”: C.S. Peirce
 (9/6) Statistical Science: The Likelihood Principle issue is out…!
 (9/4) All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy Contents3 years on
 (9/3) 3 in blog years: Sept 3 is 3rd anniversary of errorstatistics.com

October 2014


 10/01Oy Faye! What are the odds of not conflating simple conditional probability and likelihood with Bayesian success stories?
 10/05 Diederik Stapel hired to teach “social philosophy” because students got tired of success stories… or something (rejected post)
 10/07 A (Jan 14, 2014) interview with Sir David Cox by “Statistics Views”
 10/10 BREAKING THE (Royall) LAW! (of likelihood) (C)
 10/14Gelman recognizes his errorstatistical (Bayesian) foundations
 10/18 PhilStat/Law: Nathan Schachtman: Acknowledging Multiple Comparisons in Statistical Analysis: Courts Can and Must
 10/22 September 2014: Blog Contents
 10/25 3 YEARS AGO: MONTHLY MEMORY LANE
 10/26 To Quarantine or not to Quarantine?: Science & Policy in the time of Ebola
 10/31 Oxford Gaol: Statistical Bogeymen

November 2014


 11/01Philosophy of Science Assoc. (PSA) symposium on Philosophy of Statistics in the Higgs Experiments “How Many Sigmas to Discovery?”
 11/09 “Statistical Flukes, the Higgs Discovery, and 5 Sigma” at the PSA
 11/11 The Amazing Randi’s Million Dollar Challenge
 11/12 A biased report of the probability of a statistical fluke: Is it cheating?
 11/15 Why the Law of Likelihood is bankrupt–as an account of evidence
 11/18 Lucien Le Cam: “The Bayesians Hold the Magic”
 11/20 Erich Lehmann: Statistician and Poet
 11/22 Msc Kvetch: “You are a Medical Statistic”, or “How Medical Care Is Being Corrupted”
 11/25 How likelihoodists exaggerate evidence from statistical tests
 11/30 3 YEARS AGO: MONTHLY (Nov.) MEMORY LANE

December 2014


 12/02 My Rutgers Seminar: tomorrow, December 3, on philosophy of statistics
 12/04 “Probing with Severity: Beyond Bayesian Probabilism and Frequentist Performance” (Dec 3 Seminar slides)
 12/06 How power morcellators inadvertently spread uterine cancer
 12/11 Msc. Kvetch: What does it mean for a battle to be “lost by the media”?
 12/13 S. Stanley Young: Are there mortality cobenefits to the Clean Power Plan? It depends. (Guest Post)
 12/17 Announcing Kent Staley’s new book, An Introduction to the Philosophy of Science (CUP)
 12/21 Derailment: Faking Science: A true story of academic fraud, by Diederik Stapel (translated into English)
 12/23All I want for Chrismukkah is that critics & “reformers” quit howlers of testing (after 3 yrs of blogging)! So here’s Aris Spanos “Talking Back!”
 12/26 3 YEARS AGO: MONTHLY (Dec.) MEMORY LANE
 12/29 To raise the power of a test is to lower (not raise) the “hurdle” for rejecting the null (Ziliac and McCloskey 3 years on)
 12/31 Midnight With Birnbaum (Happy New Year)

January 2015


 01/02 Blog Contents: Oct. Dec. 2014
 01/03 No headache power (for Deirdre)
 01/04 Significance Levels are Made a Whipping Boy on Climate Change Evidence: Is .05 Too Strict? (Schachtman on Oreskes)
 01/07 “When Bayesian Inference Shatters” Owhadi, Scovel, and Sullivan (reblog)
 01/08 On the Brittleness of Bayesian Inference–An Update: Owhadi and Scovel (guest post)
 01/12 “Only those samples which fit the model best in cross validation were included” (whistleblower) “I suspect that we likely disagree with what constitutes validation” (Potti and Nevins)
 01/16 Winners of the December 2014 Palindrome Contest: TWO!
 01/18 Power Analysis and NonReplicability: If bad statistics is prevalent in your field, does it follow you can’t be guilty of scientific fraud?
 01/21Some statistical dirty laundry
 01/24 What do these share in common: m&ms, limbo stick, ovulation, Dale Carnegie? Sat night potpourri
 01/26 Trial on Anil Potti’s (clinical) Trial Scandal Postponed Because Lawyers Get the Sniffles (updated)
 01/27 3 YEARS AGO: (JANUARY 2012) MEMORY LANE
 01/31 Saturday Night Brainstorming and Task Forces: (4th draft)

February 2015


 02/05 Stephen Senn: Is Pooling Fooling? (Guest Post)
 02/10What’s wrong with taking (1 – β)/α, as a likelihood ratio comparing H0 and H1?
 02/13 Induction, Popper and Pseudoscience
 02/16 Continuing the discussion on truncation, Bayesian convergence and testing of priors
 02/16 R. A. Fisher: ‘Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood’: Just before breaking up (with NP)
 02/17 R. A. Fisher: How an Outsider Revolutionized Statistics (Aris Spanos)
 02/19 Stephen Senn: Fisher’s Alternative to the Alternative
 02/21 Sir Harold Jeffreys’ (tail area) oneliner: Saturday night comedy (b)
 02/25 3 YEARS AGO: (FEBRUARY 2012) MEMORY LANE
 02/27 Big Data is the New Phrenology?

March 2015


 03/01 “Probabilism as an Obstacle to Statistical FraudBusting”
 03/05 A puzzle about the latest test ban (or ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’)
 03/12 All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 3.5 years on
 03/16 Stephen Senn: The pathetic Pvalue (Guest Post)
 03/21 Objectivity in Statistics: “Arguments From Discretion and 3 Reactions”
 03/24 3 YEARS AGO (MARCH 2012): MEMORY LANE
 03/28 Your (very own) personalized genomic prediction varies depending on who else was around?

April 2015


 04/01 Are scientists really ready for ‘retraction offsets’ to advance ‘aggregate reproducibility’? (let alone ‘precautionary withdrawals’)
 04/04 Joan Clarke, Turing, I.J. Good, and “that afterdinner comedy hour…”
 04/08 Heads I win, tails you lose? Meehl and many Popperians get this wrong (about severe tests)!
 04/13 Philosophy of Statistics Comes to the Big Apple! APS 2015 Annual Convention — NYC
 04/16 A. Spanos: Jerzy Neyman and his Enduring Legacy
 04/18 Neyman: Distinguishing tests of statistical hypotheses and tests of significance might have been a lapse of someone’s pen
 04/22 NEYMAN: “Note on an Article by Sir Ronald Fisher” (3 uses for power, Fisher’s fiducial argument)
 04/24 “Statistical Concepts in Their Relation to Reality” by E.S. Pearson
 04/27 3 YEARS AGO (APRIL 2012): MEMORY LANE
 04/30 96% Error in “Expert” Testimony Based on Probability of Hair Matches: It’s all Junk!

May 2015


 05/04 Spurious Correlations: Death by getting tangled in bedsheets and the consumption of cheese! (Aris Spanos)
 05/08 What really defies common sense (Msc kvetch on rejected posts)
 05/09 Stephen Senn: Double Jeopardy?: Judge Jeffreys Upholds the Law (sequel to the pathetic Pvalue)
 05/16 “Error statistical modeling and inference: Where methodology meets ontology” A. Spanos and D. Mayo
 05/19 Workshop on Replication in the Sciences: Society for Philosophy and Psychology: (2nd part of double header)
 05/24 From our “Philosophy of Statistics” session: APS 2015 convention
 05/27 “Intentions” is the new code word for “error probabilities”: Allan Birnbaum’s Birthday
 05/30 3 YEARS AGO (MAY 2012): Saturday Night Memory Lane

June 2015


 06/04 What Would Replication Research Under an Error Statistical Philosophy Be?
 06/09 “Fraudulent until proved innocent: Is this really the new “Bayesian Forensics”? (rejected post)
 6/11 Evidence can only strengthen a prior belief in low data veracity, N. Liberman & M. Denzler: “Response”
 06/14 Some statistical dirty laundry: The Tilberg (Stapel) Report on “Flawed Science”
 06/18 Can You change Your Bayesian prior? (ii)
 06/25 3 YEARS AGO (JUNE 2012): MEMORY LANE
 06/30 Stapel’s Fix for Science? Admit the story you want to tell and how you “fixed” the statistics to support it!

July 2015


 07/03Larry Laudan: “When the ‘NotGuilty’ Falsely Pass for Innocent”, the Frequency of False Acquittals (guest post)
 07/09 Winner of the June Palindrome contest: Lori Wike
 07/11 Higgs discovery three years on (Higgs analysis and statistical flukes)
 07/14 Spot the power howler: α = ß?
 07/17 “Statistical Significance” According to the U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services (ii)
 07/22 3 YEARS AGO (JULY 2012): MEMORY LANE
 07/24 Stephen Senn: Randomization, ratios and rationality: rescuing the randomized clinical trial from its critics
 07/29 Telling What’s True About Power, if practicing within the errorstatistical tribe

August 2015


 08/05 Neyman: Distinguishing tests of statistical hypotheses and tests of significance might have been a lapse of someone’s pen
 08/08 Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”
 08/11 A. Spanos: Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics
 08/14 Performance or Probativeness? E.S. Pearson’s Statistical Philosophy
 08/15 Severity in a Likelihood Text by Charles Rohde
 08/19 Statistics, the Spooky Science
 08/20 How to avoid making mountains out of molehills, using power/severity
 08/24 3 YEARS AGO (AUGUST 2012): MEMORY LANE
 08/31The Paradox of Replication, and the vindication of the Pvalue (but she can go deeper) 9/2/15 update (ii)

September 2015


 09/05 All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 4 years on
 09/11 Peircean Induction and the ErrorCorrecting Thesis (Part I)
 09/12 (Part 2) Peircean Induction and the ErrorCorrecting Thesis
 09/14 (Part 3) Peircean Induction and the ErrorCorrecting Thesis
 09/16 Popper on pseudoscience: a comment on Pigliucci (i), (ii) 9/18, (iii) 9/20
 09/22 Statistical rivulets: Who wrote this?
 09/23 George Barnard: 100th birthday: “We need more complexity” (and coherence) in statistical education
 09/26 G.A. Barnard: The “catchall” factor: probability vs likelihood
 09/28 3 YEARS AGO (SEPTEMBER 2012): MEMORY LANE
 09/30 Oy Faye! What are the odds of not conflating simple conditional probability and likelihood with Bayesian success stories?

October 2015


 10/04 Will the Real Junk Science Please Stand Up?
 10/07 In defense of statistical recipes, but with enriched ingredients (scientist sees squirrel)
 10/10 Pvalue madness: A puzzle about the latest test ban (or ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’)
 10/14 “Frequentist Accuracy of Bayesian Estimates” (Efron Webinar announcement)
 10/18 Statistical “reforms” without philosophy are blind (v update)
 10/24 3 YEARS AGO (OCTOBER 2012): MEMORY LANE
 10/31 WHIPPING BOYS AND WITCH HUNTERS (ii)

November 201412/20


 11/05 S. McKinney: On Efron’s “Frequentist Accuracy of Bayesian Estimates” (Guest Post)
 11/09 Findings of the Office of Research Misconduct on the Duke U (Potti/Nevins) cancer trial fraud: No one is punished but the patients
 11/13 “What does it say about our national commitment to research integrity?”
 11/20 Erich Lehmann: NeymanPearson & Fisher on Pvalues
 11/25 3 YEARS AGO (NOVEMBER 2012): MEMORY LANE
 11/28 Return to the Comedy Hour: Pvalues vs posterior probabilities (1)

December 2015


 12/05 Beware of questionable front page articles warning you to beware of questionable front page articles (2)
 12/12 Stephen Senn: The pathetic Pvalue (Guest Post) [3]
 12/17 Gelman on ‘Gathering of philosophers and physicists unaware of modern reconciliation of Bayes and Popper’
 12/20 Stephen Senn: Double Jeopardy?: Judge Jeffreys Upholds the Law (sequel to the pathetic Pvalue)[4]
 12/26 3 YEARS AGO (DECEMBER 2012): MEMORY LANE
 12/31 Midnight With Birnbaum (Happy New Year)

January 2016


 01/02 Sir Harold Jeffreys’ (tail area) oneliner: Sat night comedy [draft ii]
 01/08 Preregistration Challenge: My email exchange
 01/10 Winner of December Palindrome: Mike Jacovides
 01/11 “On the Brittleness of Bayesian Inference,” Owhadi, Scovel, and Sullivan (PUBLISHED)
 01/17 “Pvalues overstate the evidence against the null”: legit or fallacious?
 01/19 High error rates in discussions of error rates (1/21/16 update)
 01/24 Hocus pocus! Adopt a magician’s stance, if you want to reveal statistical sleights of hand
 01/29 3 YEARS AGO (JANUARY 2013): MEMORY LANE

February 2016


 02/03 Philosophyladen metastatistics: Is “technical activism” free of statistical philosophy? (ii)
 02/12 Rubbing off, uncertainty, confidence, and Nate Silver
 02/17 Can’t Take the Fiducial Out of Fisher (if you want to understand the NP performance philosophy) [i]
 02/20 Deconstructing the FisherNeyman conflict wearing fiducial glasses (continued)
 02/27 3 YEARS AGO (FEBRUARY 2013): MEMORY LANE
 02/29 Statistical Challenges in Assessing and Fostering the Reproducibility of Scientific Results

March 2016


 03/04 Repligate Returns (or, the nonsignificance of nonsignificant results, are the new significant results)
 03/07 Don’t throw out the error control baby with the bad statistics bathwater
 03/12: “A small pvalue indicates it’s improbable that the results 3are due to chance alone” –fallacious or not? (more on the ASA pvalue doc)
 03/19: Your chance to continue the “due to chance” discussion in roomier quarters
 03/22: All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 4.5 years on
 03/26: A. Spanos: Talking back to the critics using error statistics

April 2016


 04/01: Er, about those “other statistical approaches”: Hold off until a balanced critique is in?
 04/06: I’m speaking at Univ of Minnesota on Friday
 04/09: Winner of March 2016 Palindrome: Manan Shah
 04/11: When the rejection ratio (1 – β)/α turns evidence on its head, for those practicing in an errorstatistical tribe (ii)
 04/16: Jerzy Neyman and “Les Miserables Citations” (statistical theater in honor of his birthday)
 04/23: 3 YEARS AGO (MARCH & APRIL 2013): MEMORY LANE
 04/30: Yes, these were not (entirely) real–my five April pranks

May 2016


 05/02: Philosophy & Physical Computing Graduate Workshop at VT
 05/04: My Popper Talk at LSE: The Statistical Replication Crisis: Paradoxes and Scapegoats
 05/09: Some bloglinks for my LSE talk tomorrow: “The Statistical Replication Crisis: Paradoxes and Scapegoats”
 05/10: My Slides: “The Statistical Replication Crisis: Paradoxes and Scapegoats”
 05/12: Excerpts from S. Senn’s Letter on “Replication, pvalues and Evidence”
 05/14: Fallacies of Rejection, Nouvelle Cuisine, and assorted New Monsters
 05/22: Frequentstein: What’s wrong with (1 – β)/α as a measure of evidence against the null? (ii)
 05/27: Allan Birnbaum: Foundations of Probability and Statistics (27 May 1923 – 1 July 1976)
 05/30: 3 YEARS AGO (MAY 2013): MEMORY LANE

June 2016


 06/02: “A sense of security regarding the future of statistical science…” Anon review of Error and Inference
 06/05: Winner of May 2016 Palindrome Contest: Curtis Williams
 06/08: “So you banned pvalues, how’s that working out for you?” D. Lakens exposes the consequences of a puzzling “ban” on statistical inference
 06/15: “Using PhilStat to Make Progress in the Replication Crisis in Psych” at Society for PhilSci in Practice (SPSP)
 06/19: Mayo & Parker “Using PhilStat to Make Progress in the Replication Crisis in Psych” SPSP Slides
 06/22: Some statistical dirty laundry: have the stains become permanent?
 06/25: What do these share in common: m&ms, limbo stick, ovulation, Dale Carnegie? Are we lowering the bar?
 06/29: Richard Gill: “Integrity or fraud… or just questionable research practices?” (Is Gill too easy on them?)

July 2016


 07/01: A. Birnbaum: Statistical Methods in Scientific Inference (May 27, 1923 – July 1, 1976)
 07/06: 3 YEARS AGO (JUNE 2013): MEMORY LANE
 07/11: Philosophy and History of Science Announcements
 07/21: “Nonsignificance Plus High Power Does Not Imply Support for the Null Over the Alternative.”
 07/28: For Popper’s Birthday: A little Popper selftest & reading from Conjectures and Refutations
 07/30: 3 YEARS AGO (JULY 2013): MEMORY LANE

August 2016


 08/02: S. Senn: “Painful dichotomies” (Guest Post)
 08/09: If you think it’s a scandal to be without statistical falsification, you will need statistical Ju
 08/16: Performance of Probativeness? E.S. Pearson’s Statistical Philosophy
 (08/18) History of statistics sleuths out there? “Ideas came into my head as I sat on a gate overlooking an experimental blackcurrant plot”–No wait, it was apples, probably
 (08/21) Larry Laudan: “‘Not Guilty’: The Misleading Verdict” (Guest Post)
 (08/28) TragiComedy hour: Pvalues vs posterior probabilities vs diagnostic error rates

September 2016


 09/03: All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 5 years on
 09/09: Peircean Induction and the ErrorCorrecting Thesis (Part I)
 09/18: The Myth of ‘The Myth of Objectivity” (i)
 09/23: G. A. Barnard’s 101st Birthday: The Bayesian “catchall” factor: probability vs likelihood
 09/28: Announcement: Scientific Misconduct and Scientific Expertise

October 2016


 10/01: A new front in the statistics wars? Peaceful negotiation in the face of socalled ‘methodological terrorism’
 10/07: For Statistical Transparency: Reveal Multiplicity and/or Just Falsify the Test (Remark on Gelman and Colleagues)
 10/15: 3 YEARS AGO (OCTOBER 2013): MEMORY LANE
 10/20: International Prize in Statistics Awarded to Sir David Cox
 10/22: Formal Epistemology Workshop 2017: call for papers
 10/26: Philosophy of Science Association 2016 Symposium

November 2016


 11/01: I’ll be speaking to a biomedical group at Emory University, Nov 3
 11/08: Gigerenzer at the PSA: “How Fisher, NeymanPearson, & Bayes Were Transformed into the Null Ritual”: Comments and Queries (ii)
 11/12: Taking errors seriously in forecasting elections
 11/19: Glymour at the PSA: “Exploratory Research is More Reliable Than Confirmatory Research”
 11/28: 3 YEARS AGO (NOVEMBER 2013): MEMORY LANE

December 2016


 12/03: Gelman at the PSA: “Confirmationist and Falsificationist Paradigms in Statistical Practice”: Comments & Queries
 12/11: “Tests of Statistical Significance Made Sound”: excerpts from B. Haig
 12/19: Senn: “Placebos: it’s not only the patients that are fooled” (Guest Post)
 12/26: 3 YEARS AGO (DECEMBER 2013): MEMORY LANE
 12/30: Szucs & Ioannidis Revive the LimbSawing Fallacy
 12/31: Midnight With Birnbaum (Happy New Year 2016)

January 2017


 01/07: BOSTON COLLOQUIUM FOR PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE: Understanding Reproducibility & Error Correction in Science
 01/14: Winners of December Palindrome: Kyle Griffiths & Eileen Flanagan
 01/19: The “Pvalues overstate the evidence against the null” fallacy
 01/28: 3 YEARS AGO (JANUARY 2014): MEMORY LANE

February 2017


 02/03: High error rates in discussions of error rates: no end in sight
 02/07: Hocus pocus! Adopt a magician’s stance, if you want to reveal statistical sleights of hand
 02/12: Cox’s (1958) weighing machine example
 02/16: Winner of the January 2017 Palindrome contest: Cristiano Sabiu
 02/17: R. A. Fisher: ‘Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood’
 02/19: Guest Blog: ARIS SPANOS: The Enduring Legacy of R. A. Fisher
 02/20: R.A. Fisher: “Statistical methods and Scientific Induction”
 02/22: Guest Blog: STEPHEN SENN: ‘Fisher’s alternative to the alternative’
 02/26: R.A Fisher: “It should never be true, though it is still often said, that the conclusions are no more accurate than the data on which they are based”
 02/28: 3 YEARS AGO (FEBRUARY 2014): MEMORY LANE

March 2017
April 2017


 04/01: Er, about those other approaches, hold off until a balanced appraisal is in
 04/03: Announcement: Columbia Workshop on Probability and Learning (April 8)
 04/09: 3 YEARS AGO (MARCH 2014): MEMORY LANE
 04/15: If you’re seeing limbsawing in Pvalue logic, you’re sawing off the limbs of reductio arguments
 04/16: Spanos: Jerzy Neyman and his Enduring Legacy
 04/17: Neyman: Distinguishing tests of statistical hypotheses and tests of significance might have been a lapse of someone’s pen
 04/18: Jerzy Neyman and “Les Miserables Citations” (statistical theater in honor of his birthday)
 04/21: The Fourth Bayesian, Fiducial and Frequentist Workshop (BFF4): Harvard U
 04/23: Senn: “Automatic for the people? Not quite” (Guest post)

May 2017


 05/02: “FusionConfusion?” My Discussion of Nancy Reid: “BFF Four Are we Converging?”
 05/08: How to tell what’s true about power if you’re practicing within the errorstatistical tribe
 05/15: 3 YEARS AGO (APRIL 2014): MEMORY LANE
 05/23: Frequentstein’s Bride: What’s wrong with using (1 – β)/α as a measure of evidence against the null?
 05/27: Allan Birnbaum: Foundations of Probability and Statistics (27 May 1923 – 1 July 1976)

June 2017
July 2017
August 2017
September 2017


 09/02: All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 6 years on
 09/10: Professor Roberta Millstein, Distinguished Marjorie Grene speaker September 15
 09/13: Peircean Induction and the ErrorCorrecting Thesis
 09/17: Revisiting Popper’s Demarcation of Science 2017
 09/23: George Barnard’s birthday: stopping rules, intentions
 09/25: G. A. Barnard: The “catchall” factor: probability vs likelihood

October 2017
November 2017
December 2017


 12/12: How to avoid making mountains out of molehills (using power and severity)
 12/17: Why significance testers should reject the argument to “redefine statistical significance”, even if they want to lower the pvalue*
 12/27: 60 yrs of Cox’s (1958) weighing machine, & links to bingeread the Likelihood Principle
 12/31: Midnight With Birnbaum (Happy New Year 2017)

January 2018
February 2018


 02/10: 3 YEARS AGO (FEBRUARY 2015): MEMORY LANE
 02/17: Happy Birthday R.A. Fisher: ‘Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood’
 02/18: Guest Blog: STEPHEN SENN: ‘Fisher’s alternative to the alternative’
 02/19: A. Fisher: How an Outsider Revolutionized Statistics (Aris Spanos)
 02/20: A. Fisher: “Statistical methods and Scientific Induction”
 02/23: Can’t Take the Fiducial Out of Fisher (if you want to understand the NP performance philosophy) [i]
 02/24: Deconstructing the FisherNeyman conflict wearing fiducial glasses (continued)

March 2018


 03/03: Cover/Itinerary of Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars
 03/10: 3 YEARS AGO (MARCH 2015): MEMORY LANE
 03/20: Pearl: Challenging the Hegemony of Randomized Controlled Trials: Comments on Deaton and Cartwright
 03/26: February Palindrome Winner: Lucas Friesen

April 2018
May 2018


 05/01: 3 YEARS AGO (May 2015): Monthly Memory Lane
 05/13: Getting Up to Speed on Principles of Statistics
 05/19: The Meaning of My Title: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars
 05/27: “Intentions (in your head)” is the code word for “error probabilities (of a procedure)”: Allan Birnbaum’s Birthday

June 2018
July 2018


 07/04: Statistics and the Higgs Discovery: 56 yr Memory Lane
 07/11: Senn: Personal perils: are numbers needed to treat misleading us as to the scope for personalised medicine? (Guest Post)
 07/21: 3 YEARS AGO (JULY 2015): MEMORY LANE
 07/28: For Popper’s Birthday: Reading from Conjectures and Refutations (+ selftest)

August 2018
September 2018
 09/04: The Physical Reality of My New Book! Here at the RSS Meeting
 09/08:Excursion 1 Tour I: Beyond Probabilism and Performance: Severity Requirement (1.1)
 09/11:Excursion 1 Tour I (2nd stop): Probabilism, Performance, and Probativeness (1.2)
 09/15:Excursion 1 Tour I (3rd stop): The Current State of Play in StatisticalFoundations: A View From a HotAir Balloon (1.3)
 09/22:All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 7 years on
 09/29:Excursion 2: Taboos of Induction and Falsification: Tour I (first stop)
October 2018
 10/05: “It should never be true, though it is still often said, that the conclusions are no more accurate than the data on which they are based”
 10/10: Excursion 2 Tour II (3rd stop): Falsiﬁcation, Pseudoscience, Induction (2.3)
 10/13: Philosophy of Statistics & the Replication Crisis in Science: A philosophical intro to my book (slides)
 10/16: Tour Guide Mementos (Excursion 1, Tour I of How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars)
 10/21: severe testing or severe sabotage? Christian Robert and the book slasher.
 10/24: A small amendment to Nuzzo’s tips for communicating pvalues
 10/29: Tour Guide Mementos (Excursion 1 Tour II of How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars)
November 2018
 11/05:The Replication Crises and its Constructive Role in the Philosophy of StatisticsPSA2018
 11/08: Souvenir C: A Severe Tester’s Translation Guide (Excursion 1 Tour II)
 11/11: Stephen Senn: Rothamsted Statistics meets Lord’s Paradox (Guest Post)
 11/14: Tour Guide Mementos and QUIZ 2.1 (Excursion 2 Tour I: Induction and Confirmation)
 11/17: Mementos for Excursion 2 Tour II: Falsiﬁcation, Pseudoscience, Induction (2.32.7)
 11/20: SIST* Posts: Excerpts & Mementos (to Nov 30, 2018)
 11/22: Stephen Senn: On the level. Why block structure matters and its relevance to Lord’s paradox (Guest Post)
 11/30: Where Are Fisher, Neyman, Pearson in 1919? Opening of Excursion 3
December 2018
 12/01:NeymanPearson Tests: An Episode in AngloPolish Collaboration: Excerpt from Excursion 3 (3.2)
 12/04:First Look at NP Methods as Severe Tests: Water plant accident [Exhibit (i) from Excursion 3]
 12/08: Memento & Quiz (on SEV): Excursion 3, Tour I
 12/11: It’s the Methods, Stupid: Excerpt from Excursion 3 Tour II (Mayo 2018, CUP)
 12/13:Mementos for “It’s the Methods, Stupid!” Excursion 3 Tour II (3.43.6)
 12/16: Summer Seminar PhilStat: July 28Aug 11, 2019 (ii)
 12/20: Capability and Severity: Deeper Concepts: Excerpts From Excursion 3 Tour III
 12/26: Tour Guide Mementos From Excursion 3 Tour III: Capability and Severity: Deeper Concepts
 12/26: Excerpt from Excursion 4 Tour I: The Myth of “The Myth of Objectivity” (Mayo 2018, CUP)
 12/29: 60 Years of Cox’s (1958) Chestnut: Excerpt from Excursion 3 Tour II (Mayo 2018, CUP)
January 2019
 01/02:MayoSpanos Summer Seminar PhilStat: July 28Aug 11, 2019: Instructions for Applying Now Available
 01/03: SIST* Blog Posts: Excerpts & Mementos (to Dec 31 2018)
 01/05: January Invites: Ask me questions (about SIST), Write Discussion Analyses (UPhils)
 01/10: Excerpt from Excursion 4 Tour II: 4.4 “Do PValues Exaggerate the Evidence?”
 01/13: Mementos from Excursion 4: Objectivity & Auditing: Blurbs of Tours I – IV
 01/19: A letter in response to the ASA’s Statement on pValues by Ionides, Giessing, Ritov and Page
 01/22: New Course Starts Tomorrow: Current Debates on Statistical Inference and Modelings: Joint Phil and Econ
 01/25: (Full) Excerpt of Excursion 4 Tour I: The Myth of “The Myth of Objectivity”
 01/27: 6334/6614: Captain’s Library: Biblio With Links
 01/27: Protected: Participants in 6334/6614 Meeting place JanFeb
 01/27: Excerpt from Excursion 4 Tour IV: More Auditing: Objectivity and Model Checking
 01/29: Mayo Slides Meeting #1 (Phil 6334/Econ 6614, Mayo & Spanos)
 01/31: Little Bit of Logic (5 mini problems for the reader)
February 2019
 02/04:Summer Seminar in PhilStat: July 28Aug 11
 02/14: American Phil Assoc Blog: The Stat Crisis of Science: Where are the Philosophers?
 02/17: Happy Birthday R.A. Fisher: ‘Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood’
 02/18: Guest Post: STEPHEN SENN: ‘Fisher’s alternative to the alternative’
 02/19: R.A. Fisher: “Statistical methods and Scientific Induction”
 02/20: Guest Blog: R. A. Fisher: How an Outsider Revolutionized Statistics (Aris Spanos)
 02/22: Can’t Take the Fiducial Out of Fisher (if you want to understand the NP performance philosophy) [i]
 02/23: Deconstructing the FisherNeyman conflict wearing fiducial glasses + Excerpt 5.8 from SIST
March 2019
 03/05: Blurbs of 16 Tours: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars (SIST)
 03/09: S. Senn: To infinity and beyond: how big are your data, really? (guest post)
 03/17: 1 Days to Apply for the Summer Seminar in Phil Stat
 03/25: Diary For Statistical War Correspondents on the Latest Ban on Speech
April 2019
 04/01: there’s a man at the wheel in your brain & he’s telling you what you’re allowed to say (not probability, not likelihood)
 04/04: Excursion 1 Tour II: Error Probing Tools versus Logics of EvidenceExcerpt
 04/12: Several reviews of Deborah Mayo’s new book, Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars « Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
 04/16: A. Spanos: Jerzy Neyman and his Enduring Legacy
 04/17: Jerzy Neyman and “Les Miserables Citations” (statistical theater in honor of his birthday yesterday)
 04/18: Neyman vs the ‘Inferential’ Probabilists
 04/19: Neyman: Distinguishing tests of statistical hypotheses and tests of significance might have been a lapse of someone’s pen
 04/23: If you like Neyman’s confidence intervals then you like NP tests
 04/27: (full) Excerpt: Excursion 5 Tour I — Power: Predata and Postdata (from “SIST: How to Get Beyond the Stat Wars”)
May 2019
 05/04: Excerpts: Final Souvenir Z, Farewell Keepsake & List of
 05/14: SIST: All Excerpts and Mementos: May 2018May 2019
June 2019
 06/01: Don’t let the tail wag the dog by being overly influenced by flawed statistical inferences
 06/07: (Full) Excerpt. Excursion 5 Tour II: How Not to Corrupt Power (Power Taboos, Retro Power, and Shpower)
 06/17: “The 2019 ASA Guide to Pvalues and Statistical Significance: Don’t Say What You Don’t Mean” (Some Recommendations)(ii)
July 2019


 07/06: The Statistics Wars: Errors and Casualties
 07/12: B. Haig: The ASA’s 2019 update on Pvalues and significance (ASA II)(Guest Post)
 07/19: The NEJM Issues New Guidelines on Statistical Reporting: Is the ASA PValue Project Backfiring? (i)
 07/23: Summer Seminar in PhilStat Participants and Special Invited Speakers

August 2019
 08/02: S. Senn: Red herrings and the art of cause fishing: Lord’s Paradox revisited (Guest post)
 08/15: Performance or Probativeness? E.S. Pearson’s Statistical Philosophy: Belated Birthday Wish
 08/15: Statistical Concepts in Their Relation to Reality–E.S. Pearson
 08/17: A. Spanos: Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics
 08/21: Palavering about Palavering about Pvalues
 08/30: (one year ago) RSS 2018 – Significance Tests: Rethinking the Controversy
September 2019
 09/05: All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 8 years on
 09/11: Gelman blogged our exchange on abandoning statistical significance
 09/19: (Excerpts from) ‘PValue Thresholds: Forfeit at Your Peril’ (free access)
 09/25: Hardwicke and Ioannidis, Gelman, and Mayo: Pvalues: Petitions, Practice, and Perils (and a question for readers)
 09/30: National Academies of Science: Please Correct Your Definitions of Pvalues
October 2019
 10/08: How My Book Begins: Beyond Probabilism and Performance: Severity Requirement
 10/10: Severity: Strong vs Weak (Excursion 1 continues)
 10/15: The Current State of Play in Statistical Foundations: A View From a HotAir Balloon
 10/21: The First EyeOpener: Error Probing Tools vs Logics of Evidence (Excursion 1 Tour II)
 10/30: Exploring a new philosophy of statistics field
November 2019
 11/04: On Some SelfDefeating Aspects of the ASA’s (2019) Recommendations on Statistical Significance Tests (ii)
 11/14: The ASA’s Pvalue Project: Why it’s Doing More Harm than Good (cont from 11/4/19)
 11/22: A. (Guest post): What can we learn from the debate on statistical significance?
 11/30: PValue Statements and Their Unintended(?) Consequences: The June 2019 ASA President’s Corner (b)
December 2019
 12/13: “Les stats, c’est moi”: We take that step here! (Adopt our fav word or phil stat!)(iii)
 12/24: Posts of Christmas Past (1): 13 howlers of significance tests (and how to avoid them)
 12/30: 61 Years of Cox’s (1958) Chestnut: Excerpt from Excursion 3 Tour II (Mayo 2018, CUP)
January 2020
 01/07: The NAS fixes its (main) mistake in defining Pvalues!
 01/11: Aris Spanos Reviews Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars
 01/20: S. Senn: “Error point: The importance of knowing how much you don’tknow” (guest post)
February 2020
 02/01: My paper, “P values on Trial” is out in Harvard Data Science Review
 02/13: Bad Statistics is Their Product: Fighting Fire With Fire (ii)
 02/21: R. A. Fisher: How an Outsider Revolutionized Statistics (Aris Spanos)
March 2020
 03/01: Replying to a review of Statistical Inference as Severe Testing by P. Bandyopadhyay
 03/11: My Phil Stat Events at LSE
 03/16: Stephen Senn: Being Just about Adjustment (Guest Post)
 03/26: The Corona Princess: Learning from a petri dish cruise (i)
April 2020
 04/01: April 1, 2020: Memory Lane of April 1’s past
 04/03: A. Spanos: Isaac Newton and his two years in quarantine: how science could germinate in bewildering ways (Guest post)
 04/12: Paradigm Shift in Pandemic (Vent) Protocols?
 04/20: S. Senn: Randomisation is not about balance, nor about homogeneity but about randomness (Guest Post)
 04/29: ‘What can psychology’s statistics reformers learn from the errorstatistical perspective?’
May 2020
 05/06: Part 2 of B. Haig’s ‘What can psych stat reformers learn from the errorstat perspective?’ (Bayesian stats)
 05/12: Final part of B. Haig’s ‘What can psych stat reformers learn from the errorstat perspective?’ (Bayesian stats)
 05/19: Graduate Research Seminar: Current Controversies in Phil Stat: LSE PH 500: 21 May – 18 June 2020
 05/27: Birthday of Allan Birnbaum: Foundations of Probability and Statistics (27 May 1923 – 1 July 1976)
June 2020
 06/07: “On the Importance of testing a random sample (for Covid)”, an article from Significance magazine
 06/21: Bonus meeting: Graduate Research Seminar: Current Controversies in Phil Stat: LSE PH 500: 25 June 2020
 06/26: David Hand: Trustworthiness of Statistical Analysis (LSE PH 500 presentation)
July 2020
 07/03: Colleges & Covid19: Time to Start Pool Testing
 07/16: JSM 2020: Pvalues & “Statistical Significance”, August 6
 07/20: Stephen Senn: Losing Control (guest post)
 07/28: JSM 2020 Panel on Pvalues & “Statistical Significance”
August 2020
 08/04: August 6: JSM 2020 Panel on Pvalues & “Statistical Significance”
 08/09: New Forum on The Statistics Wars & Their Casualties: August 20, Preregistration (D. Lakens)
 08/26: Statistical Crises and Their Casualties–what are they?
September 2020
 09/04: The Physical Reality of My New Book! Here at the RSS Meeting (2 years ago)
 09/05: 5 September, 2018 (w/updates) RSS 2018 – Significance Tests: Rethinking the Controversy
 09/16: September 24: Bayes factors from all sides: who’s worried, who’s not, and why (R. Morey)
 09/22: Live Exhibit: Bayes Factors & Those 6 ASA Pvalue Principles
 09/24: A. Barnard’s 105th Birthday: The Bayesian “catchall” factor: probability vs likelihood
October 2020
 10/02: CALL FOR PAPERS (Synthese) Recent Issues in Philosophy of Statistics: Evidence, Testing, and Applications
 10/07: The Statistics Debate! (NISS DEBATE, October 15, Noon – 2 pm ET)
 10/16: The PValues Debate
 10/21: My Responses (at the Pvalue debate)
 10/24: Souvenir From the NISS Stat Debate for Users of Bayes Factors (& PValues)
 10/28: Senn: Testing Times (Guest post)
November 2020
 11/09: Phil Stat Forum: November 19: Stephen Senn, “Randomisation and Control in the Age of Coronavirus?”
 11/12: Senn: “A Vaccine Trial from A to Z” with a Postscript (guest post)
 11/27: Is it impossible to commit Type I errors in statistical significance tests? (i)
December 2020
 12/13: The Statistics Debate (NISS) in Transcript Form
 12/23: Next Phil Stat Forum: January 7: D. Mayo: Putting the Brakes on the Breakthrough (or “How I used simple logic to uncover a flaw in …..statistical foundations”)
 12/28: Cox’s (1958) Chestnut: You should not get credit (or blame) for something you didn’t do
 12/30: A Perfect Time to Binge Read the (Strong) Likelihood Principle
 12/31: Midnight With Birnbaum (Remote, Virtual Happy New Year 2020)!
January 2021
 01/03: Next Phil Stat Forum: January 7: D. Mayo: Putting the Brakes on the Breakthrough (or “How I used simple logic to uncover a flaw in …..statistical foundations”)
 01/09: Why hasn’t the ASA Board revealed the recommendations of its new task force on statistical significance and replicability?
 01/17: Senn: “Beta testing”: The Pfizer/BioNTech statistical analysis of their Covid19 vaccine trial (guest post)
 01/21: January 28 Phil Stat Forum “How Can We Improve Replicability?” (Alexander Bird)
February 2021
 02/02: The Covid19 Mask Wars : HiFi Mask Asks
 02/09: February 18 “Testing with models that are not true” (Christian Hennig)
 02/12: Senn: The Power of Negative Thinking (guest post)
 02/17: Reminder: February 18 “Testing with models that are not true” (Christian Hennig)
 02/18: A. Fisher: How an Outsider Revolutionized Statistics (Aris Spanos)
 02/21: A. Fisher: “Statistical methods and Scientific Induction” with replies by Neyman and E.S. Pearson
 02/25: Aris Spanos: Modeling vs. Inference in Frequentist Statistics (guest post)
March 2021
 03/01: Falsifying claims of trust in bat coronavirus research: mysteries of the mine (i)(iv)
 03/14: March 25 “How Should Applied Science Journal Editors Deal With Statistical Controversies?” (Mark Burgman)
 03/17: Pandemic Nostalgia: The Corona Princess: Learning from a petri dish cruise (reblog 1yr)
 03/23: Reminder: March 25 “How Should Applied Science Journal Editors Deal With Statistical Controversies?” (Mark Burgman)
 03/30: The Stat Wars and Intellectual conflicts of interest: Journal Editors
April 2021
 04/01: ASA to Release the Recommendations of its Task Force on Statistical Significance and Replication
 04/11: Intellectual conflicts of interest: Reviewers
 04/16: Happy Birthday Neyman: What was Neyman opposing when he opposed the ‘Inferential’ Probabilists?
 04/17: Spanos: Jerzy Neyman and his Enduring Legacy (guest post)
 04/19: April 22 “How an information metric could bring truce to the statistics wars” (Daniele Fanelli)
 04/26: CUNY zoom talk on Wednesday: Evidence as Passing a Severe Test
 05/04: Tom Sterkenburg Reviews Mayo’s “Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars” (2018, CUP)
 05/14: May 20: “Objective Bayesianism from a Philosophical Perspective” (Jon Williamson)
 05/24: Mayo Casualties of OBayesianism and Williamson response
 05/30: Bayesian philosophers vs Bayesian statisticians: Remarks on Jon Williamson
 06/08: The F.D.A.’s controversial ruling on an Alzheimer’s drug (letter from a reader)(ii)
 06/20: June 24: “Have Covid19 lockdowns led to an increase in domestic violence? Drawing inferences from police administrative data” (Katrin Hohl)
 06/20: At long last! The ASA President’s Task Force Statement on Statistical Significance and Replicability
 06/21: June 24: “Have Covid19 lockdowns led to an increase in domestic violence? Drawing inferences from police administrative data” (Katrin Hohl)
 06/28: Statisticians Rise Up To Defend (error statistical) Hypothesis Testing
 07/04: Statistics and the Higgs Discovery: 9 yr Memory Lane
 07/30: Invitation to discuss the ASA Task Force on Statistical Significance and Replication
August 2021
 08/07: Fair shares: sexual justice in patient recruitment in clinical trials
 08/19: Performance or Probativeness? E.S. Pearson’s Statistical Philosophy: Belated Birthday Wish
 08/21: Should Bayesian Clinical Trialists Wear Error Statistical Hats? (i)
Compiled by Jean Miller and D. Mayo.