S. Senn: Testing Times (Guest post)

Posted on October 28, 2020 by Mayo

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Stephen Senn
Consultant Statistician
Edinburgh, Scotland

Testing Times

Screening for attention

There has been much comment on Twitter and other social media about testing for coronavirus and the relationship between a test being positive and the person tested having been infected. Some primitive form of Bayesian reasoning is often used  to justify concern that an apparent positive may actually be falsely so, with specificity and sensitivity taking the roles of likelihoods and prevalence that of a prior distribution. This way of looking at testing dates back at least to a paper of 1959 by Ledley and Lusted[1]. However, as others[2, 3] have pointed out, there is a trap for the unwary in this, in that it is implicitly assumed that specificity and sensitivity are constant values unaffected by prevalence and it is far from obvious that this should be the case. Continue reading →

Categories: S. Senn, significance tests, Testing Assumptions | 14 Comments

Souvenir From the NISS Stat Debate for Users of Bayes Factors (& P-Values)

Posted on October 24, 2020 by Mayo

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What would I say is the most important takeaway from last week’s NISS “statistics debate” if you’re using (or contemplating using) Bayes factors (BFs)–of the sort Jim Berger recommends–as replacements for P-values? It is that J. Berger only regards the BFs as appropriate when there’s grounds for a high concentration (or spike) of probability on a sharp null hypothesis,            e.g.,H0: θ = θ0.

Thus, it is crucial to distinguish between precise hypotheses that are just stated for convenience and have no special prior believability, and precise hypotheses which do correspond to a concentration of prior belief. (J. Berger and Delampady 1987, p. 330).

Continue reading →

Categories: bayes factors, Berger, P-values, S. Senn | 4 Comments

My Responses (at the P-value debate)

Posted on October 21, 2020 by Mayo

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How did I respond to those 7 burning questions at last week’s (“P-Value”) Statistics Debate? Here’s a fairly close transcript of my (a) general answer, and (b) final remark, for each question–without the in-between responses to Jim and David. The exception is question 5 on Bayes factors, which naturally included Jim in my general answer. 

The questions with the most important consequences, I think, are questions 3 and 5. I’ll explain why I say this in the comments. Please share your thoughts. Continue reading →

Categories: bayes factors, P-values, Statistics, statistics debate NISS | 1 Comment

The P-Values Debate

Posted on October 16, 2020 by Mayo

 

 

National Institute of Statistical Sciences (NISS): The Statistics Debate (Video)

Categories: J. Berger, P-values, statistics debate | 14 Comments

The Statistics Debate! (NISS DEBATE, October 15, Noon – 2 pm ET)

Posted on October 7, 2020 by Mayo

October 15, Noon – 2 pm ET (Website)

Where do YOU stand?

Given the issues surrounding the misuses and abuse of p-values, do you think p-values should be used? Continue reading →

Categories: Announcement, J. Berger, P-values, Philosophy of Statistics, reproducibility, statistical significance tests, Statistics | Tags: | 9 Comments

CALL FOR PAPERS (Synthese) Recent Issues in Philosophy of Statistics: Evidence, Testing, and Applications

Posted on October 2, 2020 by Mayo

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Call for Papers: Topical Collection in Synthese

Title: Recent Issues in Philosophy of Statistics: Evidence, Testing, and Applications

The deadline for submissions is 1 November, 2020 1 December 2020

Description: Continue reading →

Categories: Announcement, CFP, Synthese | Leave a comment

G.A. Barnard’s 105th Birthday: The Bayesian “catch-all” factor: probability vs likelihood

Posted on September 24, 2020 by Mayo

barnard-1979-picture

G. A. Barnard: 23 Sept 1915-30 July, 2002

Yesterday was statistician George Barnard’s 105th birthday. To acknowledge it, I reblog an exchange between Barnard, Savage (and others) on likelihood vs probability. The exchange is from pp 79-84 (of what I call) “The Savage Forum” (Savage, 1962).[i] A portion appears on p. 420 of my Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars (2018, CUP). Six other posts on Barnard are linked below, including 2 guest posts, (Senn, Spanos); a play (pertaining to our first meeting), and a letter Barnard wrote to me in 1999.  Continue reading →

Categories: Barnard, phil/history of stat, Statistics | 10 Comments

Live Exhibit: Bayes Factors & Those 6 ASA P-value Principles

Posted on September 22, 2020 by Mayo

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Live Exhibit: So what happens if you replace “p-values” with “Bayes Factors” in the 6 principles from the 2016 American Statistical Association (ASA) Statement on P-values? (Remove “or statistical significance” in question 5.)

Does the one positive assertion hold? Are the 5 “don’ts” true? Continue reading →

Categories: ASA Guide to P-values, bayes factors | 2 Comments

September 24: Bayes factors from all sides: who’s worried, who’s not, and why (R. Morey)

Posted on September 16, 2020 by Mayo

Information and directions for joining our forum are here.

Continue reading →

Categories: Announcement, bayes factors, Error Statistics, Phil Stat Forum, Richard Morey | 1 Comment

All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 9 years on

Posted on September 7, 2020 by Mayo

Dear Reader: I began this blog 9 years ago (Sept. 3, 2011)! A double celebration is taking place at the Elbar Room tonight (a smaller one was held earlier in the week), both for the blog and the 2 year anniversary of the physical appearance of my book: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars [SIST] (CUP, 2018). A special rush edition made an appearance on Sept 3, 2018 in time for the RSS meeting in Cardiff. If you’re in the neighborhood, stop by for some Elba Grease.

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Many of the discussions in the book were importantly influenced (corrected and improved) by reader’s comments on the blog over the years. I posted several excerpts and mementos from SIST here. I thank readers for their input. Readers should look up the topics in SIST on this blog to check out the comments, and see how ideas were developed, corrected and turned into “excursions” in SIST. Continue reading →

Categories: blog contents, Metablog | Leave a comment

5 September, 2018 (w/updates) RSS 2018 – Significance Tests: Rethinking the Controversy

Posted on September 5, 2020 by Mayo

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Day 2, Wed 5th September, 2018:

The 2018 Meeting of the Royal Statistical Society (Cardiff)

11:20 – 13:20

Keynote 4 – Significance Tests: Rethinking the Controversy Assembly Room

Speakers:
Sir David Cox, Nuffield College, Oxford
Deborah Mayo, Virginia Tech
Richard Morey, Cardiff University
Aris Spanos, Virginia Tech

Intermingled in today’s statistical controversies are some long-standing, but unresolved, disagreements on the nature and principles of statistical methods and the roles for probability in statistical inference and modelling. In reaction to the so-called “replication crisis” in the sciences, some reformers suggest significance tests as a major culprit. To understand the ramifications of the proposed reforms, there is a pressing need for a deeper understanding of the source of the problems in the sciences and a balanced critique of the alternative methods being proposed to supplant significance tests. In this session speakers offer perspectives on significance tests from statistical science, econometrics, experimental psychology and philosophy of science. There will be also be panel discussion.

5 Sept. 2018 (taken by A.Spanos)

Continue reading →

Categories: Error Statistics | Tags: | Leave a comment

The Physical Reality of My New Book! Here at the RSS Meeting (2 years ago)

Posted on September 4, 2020 by Mayo

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You can find several excerpts and mementos from the book, including whole “tours” (in proofs) updated June 2020 here.

Categories: SIST | Leave a comment

Statistical Crises and Their Casualties–what are they?

Posted on August 26, 2020 by Mayo
What do I mean by “The Statistics Wars and Their Casualties”? It is the title of the workshop I have been organizing with Roman Frigg at the London School of Economics (CPNSS) [1], which was to have happened in June. It is now the title of a forum I am zooming on Phil Stat that I hope you will want to follow. It’s time that I explain and explore some of the key facets I have in mind with this title. Continue reading →
Categories: Error Statistics | 4 Comments

New Forum on The Statistics Wars & Their Casualties: August 20, Preregistration (D. Lakens)

Posted on August 9, 2020 by Mayo

I will now hold a monthly remote forum on Phil Stat: The Statistics Wars and Their Casualties–the title of the workshop I had scheduled to hold at the London School of Economics (Centre for Philosophy of Natural and Social Science: CPNSS) on 19-20 June 2020. (See the announcement at the bottom of this blog). I held the graduate seminar in Philosophy (PH500) that was to precede the workshop remotely (from May 21-June 25), and this new forum will be both an extension of that and a linkage to the planned workshop. The issues are too pressing to put off for a future in-person workshop, which I still hope to hold. It will begin with presentations by workshop participants, with lots of discussion. If you want to be part of this monthly forum and engage with us, please go to the information and directions page. The links are now fixed, sorry. (It also includes readings for Aug 20.)  If you are already on our list, you’ll automatically be notified of new meetings. (If you have questions, email me.) Continue reading →

Categories: Announcement | Leave a comment

August 6: JSM 2020 Panel on P-values & “Statistical Significance”

Posted on August 4, 2020 by Mayo

SLIDES FROM MY PRESENTATION

July 30 PRACTICE VIDEO for JSM talk (All materials for Practice JSM session here)

JSM 2020 Panel Flyer (PDF)
JSM online program w/panel abstract & information):

Categories: ASA Guide to P-values, Error Statistics, evidence-based policy, JSM 2020, P-values, Philosophy of Statistics, science communication, significance tests | 3 Comments

JSM 2020 Panel on P-values & “Statistical Significance”

Posted on July 28, 2020 by Mayo

All: On July 30 (10am EST) I will give a virtual version of my JSM presentation, remotely like the one I will actually give on Aug 6 at the JSM. Co-panelist Stan Young may as well. One of our surprise guests tomorrow (not at the JSM) will be Yoav Benjamini!  If you’re interested in attending our July 30 practice session* please follow the directions here. Background items for this session are in the “readings” and “memos” of session 5.

*unless you’re already on our LSE Phil500 list

JSM 2020 Panel Flyer (PDF)
JSM online program w/panel abstract & information): Continue reading →

Categories: Announcement, JSM 2020, significance tests, stat wars and their casualties | Leave a comment

Stephen Senn: Losing Control (guest post)

Posted on July 20, 2020 by Mayo

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Stephen Senn
Consultant Statistician
Edinburgh

Losing Control

Match points

The idea of local control is fundamental to the design and analysis of experiments and contributes greatly to a design’s efficiency. In clinical trials such control is often accompanied by randomisation and the way that the randomisation is carried out has a close relationship to how the analysis should proceed. For example, if a parallel group trial is carried out in different centres, but randomisation is ‘blocked’ by centre then, logically, centre should be in the model (Senn, S. J. & Lewis, R. J., 2019). On the other hand if all the patients in a given centre are allocated the same treatment at random, as in a so-called cluster randomised trial, then the fundamental unit of inference becomes the centre and patients are regarded as repeated measures on it. In other words, the way in which the allocation has been carried out effects the degree of matching that has been achieved and this, in turn, is related to the analysis that should be employed. A previous blog of mine, To Infinity and Beyond,  discusses the point. Continue reading →

Categories: covid-19, randomization, RCTs, S. Senn | 16 Comments

JSM 2020: P-values & “Statistical Significance”, August 6

Posted on July 16, 2020 by Mayo


Link: https://ww2.amstat.org/meetings/jsm/2020/onlineprogram/ActivityDetails.cfm?SessionID=219596

To register for JSM: https://ww2.amstat.org/meetings/jsm/2020/registration.cfm

Categories: JSM 2020, P-values | Leave a comment

Colleges & Covid-19: Time to Start Pool Testing

Posted on July 3, 2020 by Mayo

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I. “Colleges Face Rising Revolt by Professors,” proclaims an article in today’s New York Times, in relation to returning to in-person teaching:

Thousands of instructors at American colleges and universities have told administrators in recent days that they are unwilling to resume in-person classes because of the pandemic. More than three-quarters of colleges and universities have decided students can return to campus this fall. But they face a growing faculty revolt.
Continue reading →

Categories: covid-19 | Tags: | 8 Comments

David Hand: Trustworthiness of Statistical Analysis (LSE PH 500 presentation)

Posted on June 26, 2020 by Mayo

This was David Hand’s guest presentation (25 June) at our zoomed graduate research seminar (LSE PH500) on Current Controversies in Phil Stat (~30 min.)  I’ll make some remarks in the comments, and invite yours.

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Trustworthiness of Statistical Analysis

David Hand

Abstract: Trust in statistical conclusions derives from the trustworthiness of the data and analysis methods. Trustworthiness of the analysis methods can be compromised by misunderstanding and incorrect application. However, that should stimulate a call for education and regulation, to ensure that methods are used correctly. The alternative of banning potentially useful methods, on the grounds that they are often misunderstood and misused is short-sighted, unscientific, and Procrustean. It damages the capability of science to advance, and feeds into public mistrust of the discipline.

Below are Prof.Hand’s slides w/o audio, followed by a video w/audio. You can also view them on the Meeting #6 post on the PhilStatWars blog (https://phil-stat-wars.com/2020/06/21/meeting-6-june-25/). Continue reading →

Categories: LSE PH 500 | Tags: , , , , , , | 7 Comments

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