3-year memory lane

3 YEARS AGO (OCTOBER 2013): MEMORY LANE

Posted on October 15, 2016 by Mayo

3 years ago…

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: October 2013. I mark in red three posts from each month that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog, excluding those reblogged recently[1], and in green up to 3 others I’d recommend[2]. Posts that are part of a “unit” or a pair count as one.

October 2013

(10/3) Will the Real Junk Science Please Stand Up? (critical thinking)
(10/5) Was Janina Hosiasson pulling Harold Jeffreys’ leg?
(10/9) Bad statistics: crime or free speech (II)? Harkonen update: Phil Stat / Law /Stock
(10/12) Sir David Cox: a comment on the post, “Was Hosiasson pulling Jeffreys’ leg?”(10/5 and 10/12 are a pair)
(10/19) Blog Contents: September 2013
(10/19) Bayesian Confirmation Philosophy and the Tacking Paradox (iv)*
(10/25) Bayesian confirmation theory: example from last post…(10/19 and 10/25 are a pair)
(10/26) Comedy hour at the Bayesian (epistemology) retreat: highly probable vs highly probed (vs what ?)
(10/31) WHIPPING BOYS AND WITCH HUNTERS (interesting to see how things have changed and stayed the same over the past few years, share comments)

[1] Monthly memory lanes began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, 2014.

[2] New Rule, July 30, 2016-very convenient.

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3 YEARS AGO (JULY 2013): MEMORY LANE

Posted on July 30, 2016 by Mayo

3 years ago…

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: July 2013. I mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog, excluding those reblogged recently [1], and in green up to 3 others I’d recommend[2]. Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group of “U-Phils”(you [readers] philosophize) count as one.

July 2013

(7/3) Phil/Stat/Law: 50 Shades of gray between error and fraud
(7/6) Bad news bears: ‘Bayesian bear’ rejoinder–reblog mashup
(7/10) PhilStatLaw: Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence (3d ed) on Statistical Significance (Schachtman)
(7/11) Is Particle Physics Bad Science? (memory lane)
(7/13) Professor of Philosophy Resigns over Sexual Misconduct (rejected post)
(7/14) Stephen Senn: Indefinite irrelevance
(7/17) Phil/Stat/Law: What Bayesian prior should a jury have? (Schachtman)
(7/19) Msc Kvetch: A question on the Martin-Zimmerman case we do not hear
(7/20) Guest Post: Larry Laudan. Why Presuming Innocence is Not a Bayesian Prior
(7/23) Background Knowledge: Not to Quantify, But To Avoid Being Misled By, Subjective Beliefs
(7/26) New Version: On the Birnbaum argument for the SLP: Slides for JSM talk

[1] Monthly memory lanes began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, 2014.

[2] New Rule, July 30, 2016.

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Categories: 3-year memory lane, Error Statistics, Statistics | Leave a comment

3 YEARS AGO (JUNE 2013): MEMORY LANE

Posted on July 6, 2016 by Mayo

3 years ago…

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: June 2013. I mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog, excluding those reblogged recently [1]. Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group of “U-Phils”(you [readers] philosophize) count as one. Here I grouped 6/5 and 6/6.

June 2013

(6/1) Winner of May Palindrome Contest
(6/1) Some statistical dirty laundry*(recently reblogged)
(6/5) Do CIs Avoid Fallacies of Tests? Reforming the Reformers :(6/5 and6/6 are paired as one)
(6/6) PhilStock: Topsy-Turvy Game
(6/6) Anything Tests Can do, CIs do Better; CIs Do Anything Better than Tests?* (reforming the reformers cont.)
(6/8) Richard Gill: “Integrity or fraud… or just questionable research practices?”*(recently reblogged)
(6/11) Mayo: comment on the repressed memory research [How a conceptual criticism, requiring no statistics, might go.]
(6/14) P-values can’t be trusted except when used to argue that p-values can’t be trusted!
(6/19) PhilStock: The Great Taper Caper
(6/19) Stanley Young: better p-values through randomization in microarrays
(6/22) What do these share in common: m&ms, limbo stick, ovulation, Dale Carnegie? Sat night potpourri*(recently reblogged)
(6/26) Why I am not a “dualist” in the sense of Sander Greenland
(6/29) Palindrome “contest” contest
(6/30) Blog Contents: mid-year

[1] Monthly memory lanes began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, 2014.

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Categories: 3-year memory lane, Error Statistics, Statistics | Leave a comment

Richard Gill: “Integrity or fraud… or just questionable research practices?” (Is Gill too easy on them?)

Posted on June 29, 2016 by Mayo

Professor Gill

Professor Richard Gill
Statistics Group
Mathematical Institute
Leiden University

It was statistician Richard Gill who first told me about Diederik Stapel (see an earlier post on Diederik). We were at a workshop on Error in the Sciences at Leiden in 2011. I was very lucky to have Gill be assigned as my commentator/presenter—he was excellent! As I was explaining some data problems to him, he suddenly said, “Some people don’t bother to collect data at all!” That’s when I learned about Stapel.

Committees often turn to Gill when someone’s work is up for scrutiny of bad statistics or fraud, or anything in between. Do you think he’s being too easy on researchers when he says, about a given case:

“data has been obtained by some combination of the usual ‘questionable research practices’ [QRPs] which are prevalent in the field in question. Everyone does it this way, in fact, if you don’t, you’d never get anything published. …People are not deliberately cheating: they honestly believe in their theories and believe the data is supporting them.”

Isn’t that the danger in relying on deeply felt background beliefs? Have our attitudes changed (toward QRPs) over the past 3 years (harsher or less harsh)? Here’s a talk of his I blogged 3 years ago (followed by a letter he allowed me to post). I reflect on the pseudoscientific nature of the ‘recovered memories’ program in one of the Geraerts et al. papers in a later post. Continue reading →

Categories: 3-year memory lane, junk science, Statistical fraudbusting, Statistics | 4 Comments

“A sense of security regarding the future of statistical science…” Anon review of Error and Inference

Posted on June 2, 2016 by Mayo

errorinferencebookcover-e1335149598836-1

Aris Spanos, my colleague (in economics) and co-author, came across this anonymous review of our Error and Inference (2010) [E & I]. Interestingly, the reviewer remarks that “The book gives a sense of security regarding the future of statistical science and its importance in many walks of life.” We’re not sure what the reviewer means–but it’s appreciated regardless. This post was from yesterday’s 3-year memory lane and was first posted here.

2010 American Statistical Association and the American Society for Quality

TECHNOMETRICS, AUGUST 2010, VOL. 52, NO. 3, Book Reviews, 52:3, pp. 362-370.

Error and Inference: Recent Exchanges on Experimental Reasoning, Reliability, and the Objectivity and Rationality of Science, edited by Deborah G. MAYO and Aris SPANOS, New York: Cambridge University Press, 2010, ISBN 978-0-521-88008-4, xvii+419 pp., $60.00.

This edited volume contemplates the interests of both scientists and philosophers regarding gathering reliable information about the problem/question at hand in the presence of error, uncertainty, and with limited data information.

The volume makes a signiﬁcant contribution in bridging the gap between scientiﬁc practice and the philosophy of science. The main contribution of this volume pertains to issues of error and inference, and showcases intriguing discussions on statistical testing and providing alternative strategy to Bayesian inference. In words, it provides cumulative information towards the philosophical and methodological issues of scientiﬁc inquiry at large.

The target audience of this volume is quite general and open to a broad readership. With some reasonable knowledge of probability theory and statistical science, one can get the maximum beneﬁt from most of the chapters of the volume. The volume contains original and fascinating articles by eminent scholars (nine, including the editors) who range from names in statistical science to philosophy, including D. R. Cox, a name well known to statisticians. Continue reading →

Categories: 3-year memory lane, Review of Error and Inference, Statistics | 3 Comments

3 YEARS AGO (MAY 2013): MEMORY LANE

Posted on May 30, 2016 by Mayo

3 years ago…

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: May 2013. I mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog [1]. Some of the May 2013 posts blog the conference we held earlier that month: “Ontology and Methodology”. I highlight in burgundy a post on Birnbaum that follows up on my last post in honor of his birthday. New questions or comments can be placed on this post.

May 2013

(5/3) Schedule for Ontology & Methodology, 2013
(5/6) Professorships in Scandal?
(5/9) If it’s called the “The High Quality Research Act,” then ….
(5/13) ‘No-Shame’ Psychics Keep Their Predictions Vague: New Rejected post
(5/14) “A sense of security regarding the future of statistical science…” Anon review of Error and Inference
(5/18) Gandenberger on Ontology and Methodology (May 4) Conference: Virginia Tech
(5/19) Mayo: Meanderings on the Onto-Methodology Conference
(5/22) Mayo’s slides from the Onto-Meth conference
(5/24) Gelman sides w/ Neyman over Fisher in relation to a famous blow-up
(5/26) Schachtman: High, Higher, Highest Quality Research Act
(5/27) A.Birnbaum: Statistical Methods in Scientific Inference
(5/29) K. Staley: review of Error & Inference

[1]Monthly memory lanes began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, 2014.

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3 YEARS AGO (MARCH & APRIL 2013): MEMORY LANE

Posted on April 23, 2016 by Mayo

3 years ago…

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago–March & April 2013. I missed March memory lane, so both are combined here. I mark in red three posts most apt for a general background on key issues in this blog [1]. I’ve added some remarks in blue this month, for some of the posts that are not marked in red.

March 2013

(3/1) capitalizing on chance-Worth a look (has a pic of Mayo gambling)!
(3/4) Big Data or Pig Data?–Funny & clever(guest post)!
(3/7) Stephen Senn: Casting Stones
(3/10) Blog Contents 2013 (Jan & Feb)
(3/11) S. Stanley Young: Scientific Integrity and Transparency
(3/13) Risk-Based Security: Knives and Axes-Funny, strange!
(3/15) Normal Deviate: Double Misunderstandings About p-values–worth keeping in mind.
(3/17) Update on Higgs data analysis: statistical flukes (1)
(3/21) Telling the public why the Higgs particle matters
(3/23) Is NASA suspending public education and outreach?
(3/27) Higgs analysis and statistical flukes (part 2)
(3/31) possible progress on the comedy hour circuit?–One of my favorites, a bit of progress

Continue reading →

Categories: 3-year memory lane, Statistics | Leave a comment

3 YEARS AGO (FEBRUARY 2013): MEMORY LANE

Posted on February 27, 2016 by Mayo

3 years ago…

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: February 2013. I mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog [1]. Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group of “U-Phils”(you [readers] philosophize) count as one. Feb. 2013 reminds me how much the issue of the Likelihood Principle figured in this blog. I group the 4 on the Likelihood Principle, in burgundy, as one. Those unaware of the issue, or updating a statistics text in the next few months, might want to see what all the hoopla is about. (For the latest, please see [2]). The three in green are on Fisher. New questions or comments on any posts can be placed on this post.

February 2013

(2/2) U-Phil: Ton o’ Bricks
(2/4) January Palindrome Winner
(2/6) Mark Chang (now) gets it right about circularity
(2/8) From Gelman’s blog: philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics
(2/9) New kvetch: Filly Fury
(2/10) U-PHIL: Gandenberger & Hennig: Blogging Birnbaum’s Proof
(2/11) U-Phil: Mayo’s response to Hennig and Gandenberger
(2/13) Statistics as a Counter to Heavyweights…who wrote this?
(2/16) Fisher and Neyman after anger management?
(2/17) R. A. Fisher: how an outsider revolutionized statistics
(2/20) Fisher: from ‘Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood’
(2/23) Stephen Senn: Also Smith and Jones
(2/26) PhilStock: DO < $70
(2/26) Statistically speaking…

[1] I exclude those reblogged fairly recently. Monthly memory lanes began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, 2014.

[2] The discussion culminated in this publication in Statistical Science. For a very informal, final, look, see this post.

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3 YEARS AGO (JANUARY 2013): MEMORY LANE

Posted on January 29, 2016 by Mayo

3 years ago…

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: January 2013. I mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog [1]. Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group of “U-Phils”(you [readers] philosophize) count as one. It was tough to pick just 3 this month. I’m putting the 2 “U-Phils” in burgundy–nearly red. They involve reader contributions on the likelihood principle–a major topic in foundations of statistics. Please check out the others. New questions or comments can be placed on this post.

January 2013

(1/2) Severity as a ‘Metastatistical’ Assessment
(1/4) Severity Calculator
(1/6) Guest post: Bad Pharma? (S. Senn)
(1/9) RCTs, skeptics, and evidence-based policy
(1/10) James M. Buchanan
(1/11) Aris Spanos: James M. Buchanan: a scholar, teacher and friend
(1/12) Error Statistics Blog: Table of Contents
(1/15) Ontology & Methodology: Second call for Abstracts, Papers
(1/18) New Kvetch/PhilStock
(1/19) Saturday Night Brainstorming and Task Forces: (2013) TFSI on NHST (2015 update).
(1/22) New PhilStock
(1/23) P-values as posterior odds?
(1/26) Coming up: December U-Phil Contributions….
(1/27) U-Phil: S. Fletcher & N.Jinn
(1/30) U-Phil: J. A. Miller: Blogging the SLP

[1] I exclude those reblogged fairly recently. Monthly memory lanes began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, 2014.

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3 YEARS AGO (DECEMBER 2012): MEMORY LANE

Posted on December 26, 2015 by Mayo

3 years ago…

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: December 2012. I am to mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog [1]. However, posts that are part of a “unit” or group of posts count as one, so I’m not really cheating with the 5 in red. The items in the “green” group can’t be considered “general background” but are just the thing for readers interested in an ongoing episode in philosophy of statistics and law (PhilStat/Law/Stock). The two “purples” (12/8 and 12/31) are about the strong likelihood principle (SLP), one of my favorite topics. Whether I will go to meet Allan Birnbaum on New Year’s Eve (as I have for the past 4 years) is not yet decided.

December 2012

(12/2) Normal Deviate’s blog on false discovery rates
(12/2) Statistical Science meets Philosophy of Science
(12/3) Mayo Commentary on Gelman & Robert’s paper
(12/6) Announcement: U-Phil Extension: Blogging the Likelihood Principle
(12/7) Nov. Palindrome Winner: Kepler
(12/8) Don’t Birnbaumize that experiment my friend*–updated reblog
(12/11) Announcement: Prof. Stephen Senn to lead LSE grad seminar: 12-12-12
(12/11) Mayo on S. Senn: “How Can We Cultivate Senn’s-Ability?”
(12/13) “Bad statistics”: crime or free speech?
(12/14) PhilStat/Law (“Bad Statistics” Cont.)
(12/17) PhilStat/Law/Stock: multiplicity and duplicity
(12/19) PhilStat/Law/Stock: more on “bad statistics”: Schachtman
(12/21) Rejected Post: Clinical Trial Statistics Doomed by Mayan Apocalypse?
(12/22) Msc kvetch: unfair but lawful discrimination (vs the irresistibly attractive)
(12/24) 13 well-worn criticisms of significance tests (and how to avoid them)
(12/27) 3 msc kvetches on the blog bagel circuit
(12/30) An established probability theory for hair comparison?“–is not — and never was”
(12/31) Midnight with Birnbaum-reblog

[1] I exclude those reblogged fairly recently. Monthly memory lanes began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, 2014.

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3 YEARS AGO (NOVEMBER 2012): MEMORY LANE

Posted on November 25, 2015 by Mayo

3 years ago…

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: November 2012. I mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog.[1]. Please check out others that didn’t make the “bright red cut”. If you’re interested in the Likelihood Principle, check “Blogging Birnbaum” and “Likelihood Links”. If you think P-values are hard to explain, see how the “Bad News Bears” struggle to decipher Bayesian probability. (Some of the posts allude to seminars I was giving at the London School of Economics 3 years ago.)

November 2012

(11/04) PhilStat: So you’re looking for a Ph.D. dissertation topic?
(11/07) Seminars at the London School of Economics: Contemporary Problems in Philosophy of Statistics
(11/10) Bad news bears: ‘Bayesian bear’ rejoinder – reblog
(11/12) new rejected post: kvetch (and query)
(11/14) continuing the comments. …
(11/16) Philosophy of Science Association (PSA) 2012 Program
(11/18) What is Bayesian/Frequentist Inference? (from the normal deviate)
(11/18) New kvetch/PhilStock: Rapiscan Scam
(11/19) Comments on Wasserman’s “what is Bayesian/frequentist inference?”
(11/21) Irony and Bad Faith: Deconstructing Bayesians – reblog
(11/23) Announcement: 28 November: My Seminar at the LSE (Contemporary PhilStat)
(11/25) Likelihood Links [for 28 Nov. Seminar and Current U-Phil]
(11/28) Blogging Birnbaum: on Statistical Methods in Scientific Inference
(11/30) Error Statistics (brief overview)

[1] I exclude those reblogged fairly recently. Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group of “U-Phils” count as one. Monthly memory lanes began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, 2014.

Categories: 3-year memory lane, Statistics | 1 Comment

3 YEARS AGO (OCTOBER 2012): MEMORY LANE

Posted on October 24, 2015 by Mayo

: 3 years ago…

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: October 2012. I mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog.[1] Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group of “U-Phils” count as one, and there are two such groupings this month. The 10/18 “Query” gave rise to a large and useful discussion on de Finetti-style probability.

October 2012

(10/02)PhilStatLaw: Infections in the court
(10/05) Metablog: Rejected posts (blog within a blog)
(10/05) Deconstructing Gelman, Part 1: “A Bayesian wants everybody else to be a non-Bayesian.”
(10/07) Deconstructing Gelman, Part 2: Using prior information
(10/09) Last part (3) of the deconstruction: beauty and background knowledge
(10/12) U-Phils: Hennig and Aktunc on Gelman 2012
(10/13) Mayo Responds to U-Phils on Background Information
(10/15) New Kvetch: race-based academics in Fla
(10/17) RMM-8: New Mayo paper: “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2 (Shallow vs Deep Explorations)”
(10/18) Query (Understanding de Finetti style probability)–large and useful discussion

(10/18) Mayo: (first 2 sections) “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2”
(10/20) Mayo: (section 5) “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2”
(10/21) Mayo: (section 6) “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2”
(10/22) Mayo: (section 7) “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2”
(10/24) Announcement: Ontology and Methodology (Virginia Tech)
(10/25) New rejected post: phil faux
(10/27) New rejected post : “Are you butter off now?”
(10/29) Reblogging: Oxford Gaol: Statistical Bogeymen
(10/29) Type 1 and 2 errors: Frankenstorm
(10/30) Guest Post: Greg Gandenberger, “Evidential Meaning and Methods of Inference”
(10/31) U-Phil: Blogging the Likelihood Principle: New Summary

[1] excluding those reblogged fairly recently. Monthly memory lanes began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, 2014.

Categories: 3-year memory lane, Statistics | 1 Comment

3 YEARS AGO (SEPTEMBER 2012): MEMORY LANE

Posted on September 28, 2015 by Mayo

: 3 years ago…

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: September 2012. I mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog.[1] (Once again it was tough to pick just 3; many of the ones I selected are continued in the following posts, so please check out subsequent dates of posts that interest you…)

September 2012

(9/3) After dinner Bayesian comedy hour. …
(9/6) Stephen Senn: The nuisance parameter nuisance
(9/8) Metablog: One-Year Anniversary
(9/8) Return to the comedy hour … (on significance tests)
(9/12) U-Phil (9/25/12) How should “prior information” enter in statistical inference?
(9/15) More on using background info
(9/19) Barnard, background info/intentions
(9/22) Statistics and ESP research (Diaconis)
(9/25) Insevere tests and pseudoscience/26) Levels of Inquiry
(9/29) Stephen Senn: On the (ir)relevance of stopping rules in meta-analysis
(9/30) Letter from George (Barnard)

[1] excluding those reblogged fairly recently. Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group of “U-Phils” count as one. Monthly memory lanes began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, 2014.

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3 YEARS AGO (AUGUST 2012): MEMORY LANE

Posted on August 24, 2015 by Mayo

: 3 years ago…

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: August 2012. I mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog.[1] Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group of “U-Phils” count as one (there are 4 U-Phils on Wasserman this time). Monthly memory lanes began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, 2014. We’re about to turn four.

August 2012

(8/2) Stephen Senn: Fooling the Patient: an Unethical Use of Placebo? (Phil/Stat/Med)
(8/5) A “Bayesian Bear” rejoinder practically writes itself…
(8/6) Bad news bears: Bayesian rejoinder
(8/8) U-PHIL: Aris Spanos on Larry Wasserman[2]
(8/10) U-PHIL: Hennig and Gelman on Wasserman (2011)
(8/11) E.S. Pearson Birthday
(8/11) U-PHIL: Wasserman Replies to Spanos and Hennig
(8/13) U-Phil: (concluding the deconstruction) Wasserman/Mayo
(8/14) Good Scientist Badge of Approval?
(8/16) E.S. Pearson’s Statistical Philosophy
(8/18) A. Spanos: Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics
(8/20) Higgs Boson: Bayesian “Digest and Discussion”
(8/22) Scalar or Technicolor? S. Weinberg, “Why the Higgs?”
(8/25) “Did Higgs Physicists Miss an Opportunity by Not Consulting More With Statisticians?
(8/27) Knowledge/evidence not captured by mathematical prob.
(8/30) Frequentist Pursuit
(8/31) Failing to Apply vs Violating the Likelihood Principle

[1] excluding those reblogged fairly recently.

[2] Larry Wasserman’s paper was “Low Assumptions, High dimensions” in our special RIMM volume.

Categories: 3-year memory lane, Statistics | 1 Comment

Performance or Probativeness? E.S. Pearson’s Statistical Philosophy

Posted on August 14, 2015 by Mayo

E.S. Pearson

Are methods based on error probabilities of use mainly to supply procedures which will not err too frequently in some long run? (performance). Or is it the other way round: that the control of long run error properties are of crucial importance for probing the causes of the data at hand? (probativeness). I say no to the former and yes to the latter. This, I think, was also the view of Egon Sharpe (E.S.) Pearson (11 Aug, 1895-12 June, 1980). I reblog a relevant post from 2012.

Cases of Type A and Type B

“How far then, can one go in giving precision to a philosophy of statistical inference?” (Pearson 1947, 172)

Pearson considers the rationale that might be given to N-P tests in two types of cases, A and B:

“(A) At one extreme we have the case where repeated decisions must be made on results obtained from some routine procedure…

(B) At the other is the situation where statistical tools are applied to an isolated investigation of considerable importance…?” (ibid., 170)

In cases of type A, long-run results are clearly of interest, while in cases of type B, repetition is impossible and may be irrelevant:

“In other and, no doubt, more numerous cases there is no repetition of the same type of trial or experiment, but all the same we can and many of us do use the same test rules to guide our decision, following the analysis of an isolated set of numerical data. Why do we do this? What are the springs of decision? Is it because the formulation of the case in terms of hypothetical repetition helps to that clarity of view needed for sound judgment?

Or is it because we are content that the application of a rule, now in this investigation, now in that, should result in a long-run frequency of errors in judgment which we control at a low figure?” (Ibid., 173)

Although Pearson leaves this tantalizing question unanswered, claiming, “On this I should not care to dogmatize”, in studying how Pearson treats cases of type B, it is evident that in his view, “the formulation of the case in terms of hypothetical repetition helps to that clarity of view needed for sound judgment” in learning about the particular case at hand. Continue reading →

Categories: 3-year memory lane, phil/history of stat | Tags: E S Pearson | 28 Comments

3 YEARS AGO (JULY 2012): MEMORY LANE

Posted on July 22, 2015 by Mayo

: 3 years ago…

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: July 2012. I mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog.[1] This new feature, appearing the last week of each month, began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, 2014. (Once again it was tough to pick just 3; please check out others which might interest you, e.g., Schachtman on StatLaw, the machine learning conference on simplicity, the story of Lindley and particle physics, Glymour and so on.)

July 2012

(7/1) PhilStatLaw: “Let’s Require Health Claims to Be ‘Evidence Based’” (Schachtman)
(7/2) More from the Foundations of Simplicity Workshop*
(7/3) Elliott Sober Responds on Foundations of Simplicity
(7/4) Comment on Falsification
(7/6) Vladimir Cherkassky Responds on Foundations of Simplicity
(7/8) Metablog: Up and Coming
(7/9) Stephen Senn: Randomization, ratios and rationality: rescuing the randomized clinical trial from its critics
(7/10) PhilStatLaw: Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence (3d ed) on Statistical Significance (Schachtman)
(7/11) Is Particle Physics Bad Science?
(7/12) Dennis Lindley’s “Philosophy of Statistics”
(7/15) Deconstructing Larry Wasserman – it starts like this…
(7/16) Peter Grünwald: Follow-up on Cherkassky’s Comments
(7/19) New Kvetch Posted 7/18/12
(7/21) “Always the last place you look!”
(7/22) Clark Glymour: The Theory of Search Is the Economics of Discovery (part 1)
(7/23) Clark Glymour: The Theory of Search Is the Economics of Discovery (part 2)
(7/27) P-values as Frequentist Measures
(7/28) U-PHIL: Deconstructing Larry Wasserman (connects to 7/15)
(7/31) What’s in a Name? (Gelman’s blog)

[1] excluding those recently reblogged. Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group of “U-Phils” count as one.

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3 YEARS AGO (JUNE 2012): MEMORY LANE

Posted on June 25, 2015 by Mayo

: 3 years ago…

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: June 2012. I mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog.[1] It was extremely difficult to pick only 3 this month; please check out others that look interesting to you. This new feature, appearing the last week of each month, began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, 2014.

June 2012

(6/2) Anything Tests Can do, CIs do Better; CIs Do Anything Better than Tests?* (reforming the reformers cont.)
(6/6) Review of Error and Inference (Mayo and Spanos) by C. Hennig
(6/9) U-Phil: Is the Use of Power* Open to a Power Paradox?
(6/12) CMU Workshop on Foundations for Ockham’s Razor
(6/14) Answer to the Homework & a New Exercise
(6/15) Scratch Work for a SEV Homework Problem
(6/17) Repost (5/17/12): Do CIs Avoid Fallacies of Tests? Reforming the Reformers
(6/17) G. Cumming Response: The New Statistics
(6/19) The Error Statistical Philosophy and The Practice of Bayesian Statistics: Comments on Gelman and Shalizi
(6/23) Promissory Note
(6/26) Deviates, Sloths, and Exiles: Philosophical Remarks on the Ockham’s Razor Workshop*
(6/29) Further Reflections on Simplicity: Mechanisms

[1]excluding those recently reblogged. Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group of “U-Phils” count as one.

Categories: 3-year memory lane | 1 Comment

3 YEARS AGO (MAY 2012): Saturday Night Memory Lane

Posted on May 30, 2015 by Mayo

3 years ago…

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: May 2012. Lots of worthy reading and rereading for your Saturday night memory lane; it was hard to choose just 3.

I mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog* (Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group of “U-Phils” count as one.) This new feature, appearingthe end of each month, began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, 2014.

*excluding any that have been recently reblogged.

May 2012

(5/1) Stephen Senn: A Paradox of Prior Probabilities
(5/5) Comedy Hour at the Bayesian (Epistemology) Retreat: Highly Probable vs Highly Probed
(5/8) LSE Summer Seminar: Contemporary Problems in Philosophy of Statistics
(5/10) Excerpts from S. Senn’s Letter on “Replication, p-values and Evidence,”
(5/12) Saturday Night Brainstorming & Task Forces: The TFSI on NHST (for update see 2015 Task Force)
(5/17) Do CIs Avoid Fallacies of Tests? Reforming the Reformers
(5/20) Betting, Bookies and Bayes: Does it Not Matter?
(5/23) Does the Bayesian Diet Call For Error-Statistical Supplements?
(5/24) An Error-Statistical Philosophy of Evidence (PH500, LSE Seminar)-short intro to error statistics
(5/28) Painting-by-Number #1
(5/31) Metablog: May 31, 2012

Categories: 3-year memory lane | Leave a comment

3 YEARS AGO (APRIL 2012): MEMORY LANE

Posted on April 27, 2015 by Mayo

* 3 years ago…

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: March 2012. I mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog* (Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group of “U-Phils” count as one.) This new feature, appearing the last week of each month, began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, 2014.

*excluding those recently reblogged.

April 2012

(4/1) Philosophy of Statistics: Retraction Watch, Vol. 1, No. 1 (first April Fools)
(4/3) History and Philosophy of Evidence-Based Health Care
(4/4) Fallacy of Rejection and the Fallacy of Nouvelle Cuisine
(4/6) Going Where the Data Take Us
(4/9) N. Schachtman: Judge Posner’s Digression on Regression
(4/10) Call for papers: Philosepi?
(4/12) That Promissory Note From Lehmann’s Letter; Schmidt to Speak
(4/15) U-Phil: Deconstructing Dynamic Dutch-Books?
(4/16) A. Spanos: Jerzy Neyman and his Enduring Legacy (recently reblogged)

Contributions from readers in relation to published papers

(4/17) Earlier U-Phils and Deconstructions

Two book reviews of Error and the Growth of Experimental Knowledge (EGEK 1996)-counted as 1 unit

(4/18) Jean Miller: Happy Sweet 16 to EGEK! (Shalizi Review: “We have Ways of Making You Talk”)
(4/21) Happy Sweet 16 to EGEK #2 (Hasok Chang Review of EGEK)
(4/23) U-Phil: Jon Williamson: Deconstructing Dynamic Dutch Books
(4/25) Matching Numbers Across Philosophies
(4/28) Comedy Hour at the Bayesian Retreat: P-values versus Posteriors

Categories: 3-year memory lane, Statistics | Tags: EGEK book review | Leave a comment

3 YEARS AGO (MARCH 2012): MEMORY LANE

Posted on March 24, 2015 by Mayo

3 years ago…

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: March 2012. I mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog. (Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group of “U-Phils” count as one.) This new feature, appearing the last week of each month, began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, 2014.

Since the 3/14 and 3/18 posts on objectivity (part of a 5-part unit on objectivity) were recently reblogged, they are marked in burgundy, not bright red. The 3/18 comment on Barnard and Copas includes two items: A paper by Bernard and Copas, which happens to cite Stephen Senn twice, and a note by Aris Spanos pertaining to that paper.

March 2012

(3/2) MetaBlog: March 2, 2012
(3/3) Statistical Science Court?
(3/6) U-PHIL: Mayo, Senn, and Wasserman on Gelman’s RMM Contribution
(3/8) Lifting a piece from Spanos’ contribution* will usefully add to the mix
(3/10) U-PHIL: A Further Comment on Gelman by Christian Hennig (UCL, Statistics)
(3/11) Blogologue*
(3/11) RMM-7: Commentary and Response on Senn published: Special Volume on Stat Scie Meets Phil Sci
(3/14) Objectivity (#4) and the “Argument From Discretion”
(3/18) Objectivity (#5): Three Reactions to the Challenge of Objectivity (in inference)
(3/22) Generic Drugs Resistant to Lawsuits
(3/25) The New York Times Goes to War Against Generic Drug Manufacturers: Schachtman
(3/26) Announcement: Philosophy of Scientific Experiment Conference
(3/28) Comment on the Barnard and Copas (2002) Empirical Example: Aris Spanos

Categories: 3-year memory lane | Leave a comment

3-year memory lane

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