3-year memory lane

3 YEARS AGO (MARCH 2014): MEMORY LANE

3 years ago...

3 years ago…

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: March 2014. I mark in red three posts from each month that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog, excluding those reblogged recently[1], and in green up to 4 others I’d recommend[2].  Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group count as one. 3/19 and 3/17 are one, as are  3/19, 3/12 and 3/4, and the 6334 items 3/11, 3/22 and 3/26. So that covers nearly all the posts!

March 2014

 

  • (3/1) Cosma Shalizi gets tenure (at last!) (metastat announcement)
  • (3/2) Significance tests and frequentist principles of evidence: Phil6334 Day #6
  • (3/3) Capitalizing on Chance (ii)
  • (3/4) Power, power everywhere–(it) may not be what you think! [illustration]
  • (3/8) Msc kvetch: You are fully dressed (even under you clothes)?
  • (3/8) Fallacy of Rejection and the Fallacy of Nouvelle Cuisine
  • (3/11) Phil6334 Day #7: Selection effects, the Higgs and 5 sigma, Power
  • (3/12) Get empowered to detect power howlers
  • (3/15) New SEV calculator (guest app: Durvasula)
  • (3/17) Stephen Senn: “Delta Force: To what extent is clinical relevance relevant?” (Guest Post)

     

     

  • (3/19) Power taboos: Statue of Liberty, Senn, Neyman, Carnap, Severity
  • (3/22) Fallacies of statistics & statistics journalism, and how to avoid them: Summary & Slides Day #8 (Phil 6334)
  • (3/25) The Unexpected Way Philosophy Majors Are Changing The World Of Business

     

  • (3/26) Phil6334:Misspecification Testing: Ordering From A Full Diagnostic Menu (part 1)
  • (3/28) Severe osteometric probing of skeletal remains: John Byrd
  • (3/29) Winner of the March 2014 palindrome contest (rejected post)
  • (3/30) Phil6334: March 26, philosophy of misspecification testing (Day #9 slides)

[1] Monthly memory lanes began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, 2014.

[2] New Rule, July 30,2016, March 30,2017 (moved to 4) -very convenient way to allow data-dependent choices.

Save

Save

Save

Save

Save

Categories: 3-year memory lane, Error Statistics, Statistics | Leave a comment

3 YEARS AGO (FEBRUARY 2014): MEMORY LANE

3 years ago...

3 years ago…

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: February 2014. I normally mark in red three posts from each month that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog, but I decided just to list these as they are (some are from a seminar I taught with Aris Spanos 3 years ago; several on Fisher were recently reblogged). I hope you find something of interest!    

February 2014

  • (2/1) Comedy hour at the Bayesian (epistemology) retreat: highly probable vs highly probed (vs B-boosts)
  • (2/3) PhilStock: Bad news is bad news on Wall St. (rejected post)
  • (2/5) “Probabilism as an Obstacle to Statistical Fraud-Busting” (draft iii)
  • (2/9) Phil6334: Day #3: Feb 6, 2014
  • (2/10) Is it true that all epistemic principles can only be defended circularly? A Popperian puzzle
  • (2/12) Phil6334: Popper self-test
  • (2/13) Phil 6334 Statistical Snow Sculpture
  • (2/14) January Blog Table of Contents
  • (2/15) Fisher and Neyman after anger management?
  • (2/17) R. A. Fisher: how an outsider revolutionized statistics
  • (2/18) Aris Spanos: The Enduring Legacy of R. A. Fisher
  • (2/20) R.A. Fisher: ‘Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood’
  • (2/21) STEPHEN SENN: Fisher’s alternative to the alternative
  • (2/22) Sir Harold Jeffreys’ (tail-area) one-liner: Sat night comedy [draft ii]
  • (2/24) Phil6334: February 20, 2014 (Spanos): Day #5
  • (2/26) Winner of the February 2014 palindrome contest (rejected post)
  • (2/26) Phil6334: Feb 24, 2014: Induction, Popper and pseudoscience (Day #4)

 

 

Categories: 3-year memory lane, Statistics | 2 Comments

3 YEARS AGO (JANUARY 2014): MEMORY LANE

3 years ago...

3 years ago…

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: January 2014. I mark in red three posts from each month that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog, excluding those reblogged recently[1], and in green up to 3 others I’d recommend[2].  Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group count as one. This month, I’m grouping the 3 posts from my seminar with A. Spanos, counting them as 1.

January 2014

  • (1/2) Winner of the December 2013 Palindrome Book Contest (Rejected Post)
  • (1/3) Error Statistics Philosophy: 2013
  • (1/4) Your 2014 wishing well. …
  • (1/7) “Philosophy of Statistical Inference and Modeling” New Course: Spring 2014: Mayo and Spanos: (Virginia Tech)
  • (1/11) Two Severities? (PhilSci and PhilStat)
  • (1/14) Statistical Science meets Philosophy of Science: blog beginnings
  • (1/16) Objective/subjective, dirty hands and all that: Gelman/Wasserman blogolog (ii)
  • (1/18) Sir Harold Jeffreys’ (tail area) one-liner: Sat night comedy [draft ii]
  • (1/22) Phil6334: “Philosophy of Statistical Inference and Modeling” New Course: Spring 2014: Mayo and Spanos (Virginia Tech) UPDATE: JAN 21
  • (1/24) Phil 6334: Slides from Day #1: Four Waves in Philosophy of Statistics
  • (1/25) U-Phil (Phil 6334) How should “prior information” enter in statistical inference?
  • (1/27) Winner of the January 2014 palindrome contest (rejected post)
  • (1/29) BOSTON COLLOQUIUM FOR PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE: Revisiting the Foundations of Statistics

    .

  • (1/31) Phil 6334: Day #2 Slides

 

[1] Monthly memory lanes began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, 2014.

[2] New Rule, July 30, 2016-very convenient.

 

Save

Save

Save

Save

Save

Categories: 3-year memory lane, Bayesian/frequentist, Statistics | 1 Comment

3 YEARS AGO (DECEMBER 2013): MEMORY LANE

3 years ago...

3 years ago…

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: December 2013. I mark in red three posts from each month that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog, excluding those reblogged recently[1], and in green up to 3 others I’d recommend[2].  Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group count as one. In this post, that makes 12/27-12/28 count as one.

December 2013

  • (12/3) Stephen Senn: Dawid’s Selection Paradox (guest post)
  • (12/7) FDA’s New Pharmacovigilance
  • (12/9) Why ecologists might want to read more philosophy of science (UPDATED)
  • (12/11) Blog Contents for Oct and Nov 2013
  • (12/14) The error statistician has a complex, messy, subtle, ingenious piece-meal approach
  • (12/15) Surprising Facts about Surprising Facts
  • (12/19) A. Spanos lecture on “Frequentist Hypothesis Testing
  • (12/24) U-Phil: Deconstructions [of J. Berger]: Irony & Bad Faith 3
  • (12/25) “Bad Arguments” (a book by Ali Almossawi)
  • (12/26) Mascots of Bayesneon statistics (rejected post)
  • (12/27) Deconstructing Larry Wasserman
  • (12/28) More on deconstructing Larry Wasserman (Aris Spanos)
  • (12/28) Wasserman on Wasserman: Update! December 28, 2013
  • (12/31) Midnight With Birnbaum (Happy New Year)

[1] Monthly memory lanes began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, 2014.

[2] New Rule, July 30, 2016-very convenient.

 

Save

Save

Save

Save

Save

Categories: 3-year memory lane, Bayesian/frequentist, Error Statistics, Statistics | 1 Comment

3 YEARS AGO (NOVEMBER 2013): MEMORY LANE

3 years ago...

3 years ago…

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: November 2013. I mark in red three posts from each month that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog, excluding those reblogged recently[1], and in green up to 3 others I’d recommend[2].  Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group count as one. Here I’m counting 11/9, 11/13, and 11/16 as one

November 2013

  • (11/2) Oxford Gaol: Statistical Bogeymen
  • (11/4) Forthcoming paper on the strong likelihood principle
  • (11/9) Null Effects and Replication (cartoon pic)
  • (11/9) Beware of questionable front page articles warning you to beware of questionable front page articles (iii)
  • (11/13) T. Kepler: “Trouble with ‘Trouble at the Lab’?” (guest post)
  • (11/16) PhilStock: No-pain bull
  • (11/16) S. Stanley Young: More Trouble with ‘Trouble in the Lab’ (Guest post)
  • (11/18) Lucien Le Cam: “The Bayesians hold the Magic”
  • (11/20) Erich Lehmann: Statistician and Poet
  • (11/23) Probability that it is a statistical fluke [i]
  • (11/27)The probability that it be a statistical fluke” [iia]
  • (11/30) Saturday night comedy at the “Bayesian Boy” diary (rejected post*)

[1] Monthly memory lanes began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, 2014.

[2] New Rule, July 30, 2016-very convenient.

 

Save

Save

Save

Save

Save

Categories: 3-year memory lane, Error Statistics, Statistics | Leave a comment

3 YEARS AGO (OCTOBER 2013): MEMORY LANE

3 years ago...

3 years ago…

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: October 2013. I mark in red three posts from each month that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog, excluding those reblogged recently[1], and in green up to 3 others I’d recommend[2].  Posts that are part of a “unit” or a pair count as one.

October 2013

  • (10/3) Will the Real Junk Science Please Stand Up? (critical thinking)
     
  • (10/5) Was Janina Hosiasson pulling Harold Jeffreys’ leg?
  • (10/9) Bad statistics: crime or free speech (II)? Harkonen update: Phil Stat / Law /Stock
  • (10/12) Sir David Cox: a comment on the post, “Was Hosiasson pulling Jeffreys’ leg?”(10/5 and 10/12 are a pair)
     
  • (10/19) Blog Contents: September 2013
  • (10/19) Bayesian Confirmation Philosophy and the Tacking Paradox (iv)*
  • (10/25) Bayesian confirmation theory: example from last post…(10/19 and 10/25 are a pair)
  • (10/26) Comedy hour at the Bayesian (epistemology) retreat: highly probable vs highly probed (vs what ?)
  • (10/31) WHIPPING BOYS AND WITCH HUNTERS (interesting to see how things have changed and stayed the same over the past few years, share comments)

[1] Monthly memory lanes began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, 2014.

[2] New Rule, July 30, 2016-very convenient.

 

Save

Save

Save

Save

Save

Categories: 3-year memory lane, Error Statistics, Statistics | 22 Comments

3 YEARS AGO (JULY 2013): MEMORY LANE

3 years ago...

3 years ago…

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: July 2013. I mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog, excluding those reblogged recently [1], and in green up to 3 others I’d recommend[2].  Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group of “U-Phils”(you [readers] philosophize) count as one.

July 2013

  • (7/3) Phil/Stat/Law: 50 Shades of gray between error and fraud
  • (7/6) Bad news bears: ‘Bayesian bear’ rejoinder–reblog mashup
  • (7/10) PhilStatLaw: Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence (3d ed) on Statistical Significance (Schachtman)
  • (7/11) Is Particle Physics Bad Science? (memory lane)
  • (7/13) Professor of Philosophy Resigns over Sexual Misconduct (rejected post)
  • (7/14) Stephen Senn: Indefinite irrelevance
  • (7/17) Phil/Stat/Law: What Bayesian prior should a jury have? (Schachtman)
  • (7/19) Msc Kvetch: A question on the Martin-Zimmerman case we do not hear
  • (7/20) Guest Post: Larry Laudan. Why Presuming Innocence is Not a Bayesian Prior
  • (7/23) Background Knowledge: Not to Quantify, But To Avoid Being Misled By, Subjective Beliefs
  • (7/26) New Version: On the Birnbaum argument for the SLP: Slides for JSM talk

[1] Monthly memory lanes began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, 2014.

[2] New Rule, July 30, 2016.

 

Save

Save

Save

Save

Save

Categories: 3-year memory lane, Error Statistics, Statistics | Leave a comment

3 YEARS AGO (JUNE 2013): MEMORY LANE

3 years ago...

3 years ago…

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: June 2013. I mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog, excluding those reblogged recently [1].  Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group of “U-Phils”(you [readers] philosophize) count as one. Here I grouped 6/5 and 6/6.

June 2013

  • (6/1) Winner of May Palindrome Contest
  • (6/1) Some statistical dirty laundry*(recently reblogged)
  • (6/5) Do CIs Avoid Fallacies of Tests? Reforming the Reformers :(6/5 and6/6 are paired as one)
  • (6/6) PhilStock: Topsy-Turvy Game
  • (6/6) Anything Tests Can do, CIs do Better; CIs Do Anything Better than Tests?* (reforming the reformers cont.)
  • (6/8) Richard Gill: “Integrity or fraud… or just questionable research practices?*(recently reblogged)
  • (6/11) Mayo: comment on the repressed memory research [How a conceptual criticism, requiring no statistics, might go.]
  • (6/14) P-values can’t be trusted except when used to argue that p-values can’t be trusted!
  • (6/19) PhilStock: The Great Taper Caper
  • (6/19) Stanley Young: better p-values through randomization in microarrays
  • (6/22) What do these share in common: m&ms, limbo stick, ovulation, Dale Carnegie? Sat night potpourri*(recently reblogged)
  • (6/26) Why I am not a “dualist” in the sense of Sander Greenland
  • (6/29) Palindrome “contest” contest
  • (6/30) Blog Contents: mid-year

[1] Monthly memory lanes began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, 2014.

Save

Save

Save

Save

Save

Categories: 3-year memory lane, Error Statistics, Statistics | Leave a comment

Richard Gill: “Integrity or fraud… or just questionable research practices?” (Is Gill too easy on them?)

Professor Gill

Professor Gill

Professor Richard Gill
Statistics Group
Mathematical Institute
Leiden University

It was statistician Richard Gill who first told me about Diederik Stapel (see an earlier post on Diederik). We were at a workshop on Error in the Sciences at Leiden in 2011. I was very lucky to have Gill be assigned as my commentator/presenter—he was excellent! As I was explaining some data problems to him, he suddenly said, “Some people don’t bother to collect data at all!” That’s when I learned about Stapel.

Committees often turn to Gill when someone’s work is up for scrutiny of bad statistics or fraud, or anything in between. Do you think he’s being too easy on researchers when he says, about a given case:

“data has been obtained by some combination of the usual ‘questionable research practices’ [QRPs] which are prevalent in the field in question. Everyone does it this way, in fact, if you don’t, you’d never get anything published. …People are not deliberately cheating: they honestly believe in their theories and believe the data is supporting them.”

Isn’t that the danger in relying on deeply felt background beliefs?  Have our attitudes changed (toward QRPs) over the past 3 years (harsher or less harsh)? Here’s a talk of his I blogged 3 years ago (followed by a letter he allowed me to post). I reflect on the pseudoscientific nature of the ‘recovered memories’ program in one of the Geraerts et al. papers in a later post. Continue reading

Categories: 3-year memory lane, junk science, Statistical fraudbusting, Statistics | 4 Comments

“A sense of security regarding the future of statistical science…” Anon review of Error and Inference

errorinferencebookcover-e1335149598836-1

.

Aris Spanos, my colleague (in economics) and co-author, came across this anonymous review of our Error and Inference (2010) [E & I]. Interestingly, the reviewer remarks that “The book gives a sense of security regarding the future of statistical science and its importance in many walks of life.” We’re not sure what the reviewer means–but it’s appreciated regardless. This post was from yesterday’s 3-year memory lane and was first posted here.

2010 American Statistical Association and the American Society for Quality

TECHNOMETRICS, AUGUST 2010, VOL. 52, NO. 3, Book Reviews, 52:3, pp. 362-370.

Error and Inference: Recent Exchanges on Experimental Reasoning, Reliability, and the Objectivity and Rationality of Science, edited by Deborah G. MAYO and Aris SPANOS, New York: Cambridge University Press, 2010, ISBN 978-0-521-88008-4, xvii+419 pp., $60.00.

This edited volume contemplates the interests of both scientists and philosophers regarding gathering reliable information about the problem/question at hand in the presence of error, uncertainty, and with limited data information.

The volume makes a significant contribution in bridging the gap between scientific practice and the philosophy of science. The main contribution of this volume pertains to issues of error and inference, and showcases intriguing discussions on statistical testing and providing alternative strategy to Bayesian inference. In words, it provides cumulative information towards the philosophical and methodological issues of scientific inquiry at large.

The target audience of this volume is quite general and open to a broad readership. With some reasonable knowledge of probability theory and statistical science, one can get the maximum benefit from most of the chapters of the volume. The volume contains original and fascinating articles by eminent scholars (nine, including the editors) who range from names in statistical science to philosophy, including D. R. Cox, a name well known to statisticians. Continue reading

Categories: 3-year memory lane, Review of Error and Inference, Statistics | 3 Comments

3 YEARS AGO (MAY 2013): MEMORY LANE

3 years ago...

3 years ago…

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: May 2013. I mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog [1].  Some of the May 2013 posts blog the conference we held earlier that month: “Ontology and Methodology”.  I highlight in burgundy a post on Birnbaum that follows up on my last post in honor of his birthday. New questions or comments can be placed on this post.

May 2013

  • (5/3) Schedule for Ontology & Methodology, 2013
  • (5/6) Professorships in Scandal?
  • (5/9) If it’s called the “The High Quality Research Act,” then ….
  • (5/13) ‘No-Shame’ Psychics Keep Their Predictions Vague: New Rejected post
  • (5/14) “A sense of security regarding the future of statistical science…” Anon review of Error and Inference
  • (5/18) Gandenberger on Ontology and Methodology (May 4) Conference: Virginia Tech
  • (5/19) Mayo: Meanderings on the Onto-Methodology Conference
  • (5/22) Mayo’s slides from the Onto-Meth conference
  • (5/24) Gelman sides w/ Neyman over Fisher in relation to a famous blow-up
  • (5/26) Schachtman: High, Higher, Highest Quality Research Act
  • (5/27) A.Birnbaum: Statistical Methods in Scientific Inference
  • (5/29) K. Staley: review of Error & Inference

 [1]Monthly memory lanes began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, 2014.

Categories: 3-year memory lane, Statistics | Leave a comment

3 YEARS AGO (MARCH & APRIL 2013): MEMORY LANE

3 years ago...

3 years ago…

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago–March & April 2013. I missed March memory lane, so both are combined here. I mark in red three posts most apt for a general background on key issues in this blog [1]. I’ve added some remarks in blue this month, for some of the posts that are not marked in red.

March 2013

  • (3/1) capitalizing on chance-Worth a look (has a pic of Mayo gambling)!
  • (3/4) Big Data or Pig Data?–Funny & clever(guest post)!
  • (3/7) Stephen Senn: Casting Stones
  • (3/10) Blog Contents 2013 (Jan & Feb)
  • (3/11) S. Stanley Young: Scientific Integrity and Transparency
  • (3/13) Risk-Based Security: Knives and Axes-Funny, strange!
  • (3/15) Normal Deviate: Double Misunderstandings About p-values–worth keeping in mind.
  • (3/17) Update on Higgs data analysis: statistical flukes (1)
  • (3/21) Telling the public why the Higgs particle matters
  • (3/23) Is NASA suspending public education and outreach?
  • (3/27) Higgs analysis and statistical flukes (part 2)
  • (3/31) possible progress on the comedy hour circuit?–One of my favorites, a bit of progress

Continue reading

Categories: 3-year memory lane, Statistics | Leave a comment

3 YEARS AGO (FEBRUARY 2013): MEMORY LANE

3 years ago...

3 years ago…

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: February 2013. I mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog [1]. Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group of “U-Phils”(you [readers] philosophize) count as one. Feb. 2013 reminds me how much the issue of the Likelihood Principle figured in this blog. I group the 4 on the Likelihood Principle, in burgundy, as one. Those unaware of the issue, or updating a statistics text in the next few months, might want to see what all the hoopla is about. (For the latest, please see [2]). The three in green are on Fisher. New questions or comments on any posts can be placed on this post.

February 2013

  • (2/2) U-Phil: Ton o’ Bricks
  • (2/4) January Palindrome Winner
  • (2/6) Mark Chang (now) gets it right about circularity
  • (2/8) From Gelman’s blog: philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics
  • (2/9) New kvetch: Filly Fury
  • (2/10) U-PHIL: Gandenberger & Hennig: Blogging Birnbaum’s Proof
     
  • (2/11) U-Phil: Mayo’s response to Hennig and Gandenberger
  • (2/13) Statistics as a Counter to Heavyweights…who wrote this?
  • (2/16) Fisher and Neyman after anger management?
  • (2/17) R. A. Fisher: how an outsider revolutionized statistics
  • (2/20) Fisher: from ‘Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood’
  • (2/23) Stephen Senn: Also Smith and Jones
  • (2/26) PhilStock: DO < $70
  • (2/26) Statistically speaking…

[1] I exclude those reblogged fairly recently. Monthly memory lanes began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, 2014.

[2] The discussion culminated in this publication in Statistical Science. For a very informal, final, look, see this post.

 

 

Categories: 3-year memory lane, Statistics | Leave a comment

3 YEARS AGO (JANUARY 2013): MEMORY LANE

3 years ago...

3 years ago…

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: January 2013. I mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog [1].  Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group of “U-Phils”(you [readers] philosophize) count as one. It was tough to pick just 3 this month. I’m putting the 2 “U-Phils” in burgundynearly red. They involve reader contributions on  the likelihood principle–a major topic in foundations of statistics. Please check out the others. New questions or comments can be placed on this post.

January 2013

  • (1/2) Severity as a ‘Metastatistical’ Assessment
  • (1/4) Severity Calculator
  • (1/6) Guest post: Bad Pharma? (S. Senn)
  • (1/9) RCTs, skeptics, and evidence-based policy
  • (1/10) James M. Buchanan
  • (1/11) Aris Spanos: James M. Buchanan: a scholar, teacher and friend
  • (1/12) Error Statistics Blog: Table of Contents
  • (1/15) Ontology & Methodology: Second call for Abstracts, Papers
  • (1/18) New Kvetch/PhilStock
  • (1/19) Saturday Night Brainstorming and Task Forces: (2013) TFSI on NHST (2015 update).
  • (1/22) New PhilStock
  • (1/23) P-values as posterior odds?
  • (1/26) Coming up: December U-Phil Contributions….
  • (1/27) U-Phil: S. Fletcher & N.Jinn
  • (1/30) U-Phil: J. A. Miller: Blogging the SLP

 [1] I exclude those reblogged fairly recently. Monthly memory lanes began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, 2014.

Categories: 3-year memory lane, Statistics | Leave a comment

3 YEARS AGO (DECEMBER 2012): MEMORY LANE

3 years ago...

3 years ago…

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: December 2012. I am to mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog [1]. However, posts that are part of a “unit” or group of posts count as one, so I’m not really cheating with the 5 in red. The items in the “green” group can’t be considered “general background” but are just the thing for readers interested in an ongoing episode in philosophy of statistics and law (PhilStat/Law/Stock). The two “purples” (12/8 and 12/31) are about the strong likelihood principle (SLP), one of my favorite topics. Whether I will go to meet Allan Birnbaum on New Year’s Eve (as I have for the past 4 years) is not yet decided.

December 2012

[1] I exclude those reblogged fairly recently. Monthly memory lanes began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, 2014.

Categories: 3-year memory lane, Statistics | Leave a comment

3 YEARS AGO (NOVEMBER 2012): MEMORY LANE

3 years ago...

3 years ago…

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: November 2012. I mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog.[1]. Please check out others that didn’t make the “bright red cut”. If you’re interested in the Likelihood Principle, check “Blogging Birnbaum” and “Likelihood Links”. If you think P-values are hard to explain, see how the “Bad News Bears” struggle to decipher Bayesian probability. (Some of the posts allude to seminars I was giving at the London School of Economics 3 years ago.)

November 2012

[1] I exclude those reblogged fairly recently. Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group of “U-Phils” count as one. Monthly memory lanes began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, 2014.

Categories: 3-year memory lane, Statistics | 1 Comment

3 YEARS AGO (OCTOBER 2012): MEMORY LANE

3 years ago...
3 years ago…

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: October 2012. I mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog.[1] Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group of “U-Phils” count as one, and there are two such groupings this month. The 10/18 “Query” gave rise to a large and useful discussion on de Finetti-style probability.

October 2012

  • (10/02)PhilStatLaw: Infections in the court
  • (10/05) Metablog: Rejected posts (blog within a blog)
  • (10/05) Deconstructing Gelman, Part 1: “A Bayesian wants everybody else to be a non-Bayesian.”
  • (10/07) Deconstructing Gelman, Part 2: Using prior information
  • (10/09) Last part (3) of the deconstruction: beauty and background knowledge
  • (10/12) U-Phils: Hennig and Aktunc on Gelman 2012
  • (10/13) Mayo Responds to U-Phils on Background Information
  • (10/15) New Kvetch: race-based academics in Fla
  • (10/17) RMM-8: New Mayo paper: “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2 (Shallow vs Deep Explorations)”
  • (10/18) Query (Understanding de Finetti style probability)–large and useful discussion

[1] excluding those reblogged fairly recently. Monthly memory lanes began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, 2014.

Categories: 3-year memory lane, Statistics | 1 Comment

3 YEARS AGO (SEPTEMBER 2012): MEMORY LANE

3 years ago...
3 years ago…

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: September 2012. I mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog.[1] (Once again it was tough to pick just 3; many of the ones I selected are continued in the following posts, so please check out subsequent dates of posts that interest you…)

September 2012

[1] excluding those reblogged fairly recently. Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group of “U-Phils” count as one. Monthly memory lanes began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, 2014.

Categories: 3-year memory lane, Statistics | Leave a comment

3 YEARS AGO (AUGUST 2012): MEMORY LANE

3 years ago...
3 years ago…

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: August 2012. I mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog.[1] Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group of “U-Phils” count as one (there are 4 U-Phils on Wasserman this time). Monthly memory lanes began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, 2014. We’re about to turn four.

August 2012

[1] excluding those reblogged fairly recently.

[2] Larry Wasserman’s paper was “Low Assumptions, High dimensions” in our special RIMM volume.

Categories: 3-year memory lane, Statistics | 1 Comment

Performance or Probativeness? E.S. Pearson’s Statistical Philosophy

egon pearson

E.S. Pearson

Are methods based on error probabilities of use mainly to supply procedures which will not err too frequently in some long run? (performance). Or is it the other way round: that the control of long run error properties are of crucial importance for probing the causes of the data at hand? (probativeness). I say no to the former and yes to the latter. This, I think, was also the view of Egon Sharpe (E.S.) Pearson (11 Aug, 1895-12 June, 1980). I reblog a relevant post from 2012.

Cases of Type A and Type B

“How far then, can one go in giving precision to a philosophy of statistical inference?” (Pearson 1947, 172)

Pearson considers the rationale that might be given to N-P tests in two types of cases, A and B:

“(A) At one extreme we have the case where repeated decisions must be made on results obtained from some routine procedure…

(B) At the other is the situation where statistical tools are applied to an isolated investigation of considerable importance…?” (ibid., 170)

In cases of type A, long-run results are clearly of interest, while in cases of type B, repetition is impossible and may be irrelevant:

“In other and, no doubt, more numerous cases there is no repetition of the same type of trial or experiment, but all the same we can and many of us do use the same test rules to guide our decision, following the analysis of an isolated set of numerical data. Why do we do this? What are the springs of decision? Is it because the formulation of the case in terms of hypothetical repetition helps to that clarity of view needed for sound judgment?

Or is it because we are content that the application of a rule, now in this investigation, now in that, should result in a long-run frequency of errors in judgment which we control at a low figure?” (Ibid., 173)

Although Pearson leaves this tantalizing question unanswered, claiming, “On this I should not care to dogmatize”, in studying how Pearson treats cases of type B, it is evident that in his view, “the formulation of the case in terms of hypothetical repetition helps to that clarity of view needed for sound judgment” in learning about the particular case at hand. Continue reading

Categories: 3-year memory lane, phil/history of stat | Tags: | 28 Comments

Blog at WordPress.com.