All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy Contents-3 years on

 

.

Error Statistics Philosophy: Blog Contents
By: D. G. Mayo[i]

Each month, I will mark (in red) 3 relevant posts (from that month 3 yrs ago) for readers wanting to catch-up or review central themes and discussions.

September 2011

• (9/3) Frequentists in Exile: The Purpose of this Blog
• (9/3) Overheard at the comedy hour at the Bayesian retreat
• (9/4) Drilling Rule #1
• (9/9) Kuru
• (9/13) In Exile, Clinging to Old Ideas?
• (9/15) SF conferences & E. Lehmann
• (9/16) Getting It Right But for the Wrong Reason
• (9/20) A Highly Anomalous Event
• (9/23) LUCKY 13 (Critcisms)
• (9/26) Whipping Boys and Witch Hunters
• (9/29) Part 1: Imaginary scientist at an imaginary company, Prionvac, and an imaginary reformer

October 2011

• (10/3) Part 2 Prionvac: The Will to Understand Power
• (10/4) Part 3 Prionvac: How the Reformers Should Have done Their Job
• (10/5) Formaldehyde Hearing: How to Tell the Truth With Statistically Insignificant Results
• (10/7) Blogging the (Strong) Likelihood Principle
• (10/10) RMM-1: Special Volume on Stat Sci Meets Phil Sci
• (10/10) Objectivity 1: Will the Real Junk Science Please Stand Up?
• (10/13) Objectivity #2: The “Dirty Hands” Argument for Ethics in Evidence
• (10/14) King Tut Includes ErrorStatistics in Top 50 Statblogs!
• (10/16) Objectivity #3: Clean(er) Hands With Metastatistcs
• (10/19) RMM-2: “A Conversation Between Sir David Cox & D.G. Mayo
• (10/20) Blogging the Likelihood Principle #2: Solitary Fishing: SLP Violations
• (10/22) The Will to Understand Power: Neyman’s Nursery (NN1)
• (10/28) RMM-3: Special Volume on Stat Scie Meets Phl Sci (Hendry)
• (10/30) Background Knowledge: Not to Quantify, but to Avoid Being Misled by, Subjective Beliefs
• (10/31) Oxford Gaol: Statistical Bogeymen

November 2011

• (11/1) RMM-4: Special Volume on Stat Scie Meets Phil Sci (Spanos)
• (11/3) Who is Really Doing the Work?*
• (11/5) Skeleton Key and Skeletal Points for (Esteemed) Ghost Guest
• (11/9) Neyman’s Nursery 2: Power and Severity [Continuation of Oct. 22 Post]
• (11/12) Neyman’s Nursery (NN) 3: SHPOWER vs POWER
• (11/15) Logic Takes a Bit of a Hit!: (NN 4) Continuing: Shpower (“observed” power) vs Power
• (11/18) Neyman’s Nursery (NN5): Final Post
• (11/21) RMM-5: Special Volume on Stat Scie Meets Phil Sci (Wasserman)
• (11/23) Elbar Grease: Return to the Comedy Hour at the Bayesian Retreat
• (11/28) The UN Charter: double-counting and data snooping
• (11/29) If you try sometime, you find you get what you need!

December 2011

• (12/2) Getting Credit (or blame) for Something You Don’t Deserve (and first honorable mention)
• (12/6) Putting the Brakes on the Breakthrough Part 1*
• (12/7) Part II: Breaking Through the Breakthrough*
• (12/11) Irony and Bad Faith: Deconstructing Bayesians
• (12/19) Deconstructing and Deep-Drilling* 2
• (12/22) The 3 stages of the acceptance of novel truths
• (12/25) Little Bit of Blog Log-ic
• (12/26) Contributed Deconstructions: Irony & Bad Faith 3
• (12/29) JIM BERGER ON JIM BERGER!
• (12/31) Midnight With Birnbaum

January 2012

• (1/3) Model Validation and the LLP-(Long Playing Vinyl Record)
• (1/8) Don’t Birnbaumize that Experiment my Friend*
• (1/10) Bad-Faith Assertions of Conflicts of Interest?*
• (1/13) U-PHIL: “So you want to do a philosophical analysis?”
• (1/14) “You May Believe You are a Bayesian But You Are Probably Wrong” (Extract from Senn RMM article)
• (1/15) Mayo Philosophizes on Stephen Senn: “How Can We Culivate Senn’s-Ability?”
• (1/17) “Philosophy of Statistics”: Nelder on Lindley
• (1/19) RMM-6 Special Volume on Stat Sci Meets Phil Sci (Sprenger)
• (1/22) U-Phil: Stephen Senn (1): C. Robert, A. Jaffe, and Mayo (brief remarks)
• (1/23) U-Phil: Stephen Senn (2): Andrew Gelman
• (1/24) U-Phil (3): Stephen Senn on Stephen Senn!
• (1/26) Updating & Downdating: One of the Pieces to Pick up
• (1/29) No-Pain Philosophy: Skepticism, Rationality, Popper, and All That: First of 3 Parts

February 2012

• (2/3) Senn Again (Gelman)
• (2/7) When Can Risk-Factor Epidemiology Provide Reliable Tests?
• (2/8) Guest Blogger: Interstitial Doubts About the Matrixx (Schachtman)
• (2/8) Distortions in the Court? (PhilStat/PhilStock) **Cobb on Zilizk & McCloskey
• (2/11) R.A. Fisher: Statistical Methods and Scientific Inference
• (2/11)  JERZY NEYMAN: Note on an Article by Sir Ronald Fisher
• (2/12) E.S. Pearson: Statistical Concepts in Their Relation to Reality
• (2/12) Guest Blogger. STEPHEN SENN: Fisher’s alternative to the alternative
• (2/15) Guest Blogger. Aris Spanos: The Enduring Legacy of R.A. Fisher
• (2/17) Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood
• (2/20) Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”? (Rejected Post Feb 20)
• (2/22) Intro to Misspecification Testing: Ordering From A Full Diagnostic Menu (part 1)
• (2/23) Misspecification Testing: (part 2) A Fallacy of Error “Fixing”
• (2/27) Misspecification Testing: (part 3) Subtracting-out effects “on paper”
• (2/28) Misspecification Tests: (part 4) and brief concluding remarks

March 2012

• (3/2) MetaBlog: March 2, 2012
• (3/3) Statistical Science Court?
• (3/6) Mayo, Senn, and Wasserman on Gelman’s RMM** Contribution
• (3/8) Lifting a piece from Spanos’ contribution* will usefully add to the mix
• (3/10) U-PHIL: A Further Comment on Gelman by Christian Henning (UCL, Statistics)
• (3/11) Blogologue*
• (3/11) RMM-7: Commentary and Response on Senn published: Special Volume on Stat Scie Meets Phil Sci
• (3/14) Objectivity (#4) and the “Argument From Discretion”
• (3/18) Objectivity (#5): Three Reactions to the Challenge of Objectivity (in inference)
• (3/22) Generic Drugs Resistant to Lawsuits
• (3/25) The New York Times Goes to War Against Generic Drug Manufacturers: Schactman
• (3/26) Announcement: Philosophy of Scientific Experiment Conference
• (3/28) Comment on the Barnard and Copas (2002) Empirical Example: Aris Spanos

April 2012

• (4/1) Philosophy of Statistics: Retraction Watch, Vol. 1, No. 1
• (4/3) History and Philosophy of Evidence-Based Health Care
• (4/4) Fallacy of Rejection and the Fallacy of Nouvelle Cuisine
• (4/6) Going Where the Data Take Us
• (4/9) N. Schachtman: Judge Posner’s Digression on Regression
• (4/10) Call for papers: Philosepi?
• (4/12) That Promissory Note From Lehmann’s Letter; Schmidt to Speak
• (4/15) U-Phil: Deconstructing Dynamic Dutch-Books?
• (4/16) A. Spanos: Jerzy Neyman and his Enduring Legacy
• (4/17) Earlier U-Phils and Deconstructions
• (4/18) Jean Miller: Happy Sweet 16 to EGEK! (Shalizi Review: “We have Ways of Making You Talk”)
• (4/21) Jean Miller: Happy Sweet 16 to EGEK #2 (Hasok Chang Review of EGEK)
• (4/23) U-Phil: Jon Williamson: Deconstructing Dynamic Dutch Books
• (4/25) Matching Numbers Across Philosophies
• (4/28) Comedy Hour at the Bayesian Retreat: P-values versus Posteriors

May 2012

• (5/1) Stephen Senn: A Paradox of Prior Probabilities
• (5/5) Comedy Hour at the Bayesian (Epistemology) Retreat: Highly Probable vs Highly Probed
• (5/8) LSE Summer Seminar: Contemporary Problems in Philosophy of Statistics
• (5/10) Excerpts from S. Senn’s Letter on “Replication, p-values and Evidence,”
• (5/12) Saturday Night Brainstorming & Task Forces: The TFSI on NHST
• (5/17) Do CIs Avoid Fallacies of Tests? Reforming the Reformers
• (5/20) Betting, Bookies and Bayes: Does it Not Matter?
• (5/23) Does the Bayesian Diet Call For Error-Statistical Supplements?
• (5/24) An Error-Statistical Philosophy of Evidence (PH500, LSE Seminar)
• (5/28) Painting-by-Number #1
• (5/31) Metablog: May 31, 2012

June 2012

• (6/2) Anything Tests Can do, CIs do Better; CIs Do Anything Better than Tests?* (reforming the reformers cont.)
• (6/6) Review of Error and Inference by C. Hennig
• (6/9) U-Phil: Is the Use of Power* Open to a Power Paradox?
• (6/12) CMU Workshop on Foundations for Ockham’s Razor
• (6/14) Answer to the Homework & a New Exercise
• (6/15) Scratch Work for a SEV Homework Problem
• (6/17) Repost (5/17/12): Do CIs Avoid Fallacies of Tests? Reforming the Reformers
• (6/17) G. Cumming Response: The New Statistics
• (6/19) The Error Statistical Philosophy and The Practice of Bayesian Statistics: Comments on Gelman and Shalizi
• (6/23) Promissory Note
• (6/26) Deviates, Sloths, and Exiles: Philosophical Remarks on the Ockham’s Razor Workshop*
• (6/29) Further Reflections on Simplicity: Mechanisms

July 2012

• (7/1) PhilStatLaw: “Let’s Require Health Claims to Be ‘Evidence Based’” (Schachtman)
• (7/2) More from the Foundations of Simplicity Workshop*
• (7/3) Elliott Sober Responds on Foundations of Simplicity
• (7/4) Comment on Falsification
• (7/6) Vladimir Cherkassky Responds on Foundations of Simplicity
• (7/8) Metablog: Up and Coming
• (7/9) Stephen Senn: Randomization, ratios and rationality: rescuing the randomized clinical trial from its critics
• (7/10) PhilStatLaw: Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence (3d ed) on Statistical Significance (Schachtman)
• (7/11) Is Particle Physics Bad Science?
• (7/12) Dennis Lindley’s “Philosophy of Statistics”
• (7/15) Deconstructing Larry Wasserman – it starts like this…
• (7/16) Peter Grünwald: Follow-up on Cherkassky’s Comments
• (7/19) New Kvetch Posted 7/18/12
• (7/21) “Always the last place you look!”
• (7/22) Clark Glymour: The Theory of Search Is the Economics of Discovery (part 1)
• (7/23) Clark Glymour: The Theory of Search Is the Economics of Discovery (part 2)
• (7/27) P-values as Frequentist Measures
• (7/28) U-PHIL: Deconstructing Larry Wasserman
• (7/31) What’s in a Name? (Gelman’s blog)

August 2012

• (8/2) Stephen Senn: Fooling the Patient: an Unethical Use of Placebo? (Phil/Stat/Med)
• (8/5) A “Bayesian Bear” rejoinder practically writes itself…
• (8/6) Bad news bears: Bayesian rejoinder
• (8/8) U-PHIL: Aris Spanos on Larry Wasserman
• (8/10) U-PHIL: Hennig and Gelman on Wasserman (2011)
• (8/11) E.S. Pearson Birthday
• (8/11) U-PHIL: Wasserman Replies to Spanos and Hennig
• (8/13) U-Phil: (concluding the deconstruction) Wasserman/Mayo
• (8/14) Good Scientist Badge of Approval?
• (8/16) E.S. Pearson’s Statistical Philosophy
• (8/18) A. Spanos: Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics
• (8/20) Higgs Boson: Bayesian “Digest and Discussion”
• (8/22) Scalar or Technicolor? S. Weinberg, “Why the Higgs?”
• (8/25) “Did Higgs Physicists Miss an Opportunity by Not Consulting More With Statisticians?
• (8/27) Knowledge/evidence not captured by mathematical prob.
• (8/30) Frequentist Pursuit
• (8/31) Failing to Apply vs Violating the Likelihood Principle

September 2012

• (9/3) After dinner Bayesian comedy hour. …
• (9/6) Stephen Senn: The nuisance parameter nuisance
• (9/8) Metablog: One-Year Anniversary
• (9/8) Return to the comedy hour … (on significance tests)
• (9/12) U-Phil (9/25/12) How should “prior information” enter in statistical inference?
• (9/15) More on using background info
• (9/19) Barnard, background info/intentions
• (9/22) Statistics and ESP research (Diaconis)
• (9/25) Insevere tests and pseudoscience
• (9/26) Levels of Inquiry
• (9/29) Stephen Senn: On the (ir)relevance of stopping rules in meta-analysis
• (9/30) Letter from George (Barnard)

October 2012

• (10/02)PhilStatLaw: Infections in the court
• (10/05) Metablog: Rejected posts (blog within a blog)
• (10/05) Deconstructing Gelman, Part 1: “A Bayesian wants everybody else to be a non-Bayesian.”
• (10/07) Deconstructing Gelman, Part 2: Using prior information
• (10/09) Last part (3) of the deconstruction: beauty and background knowledge
• (10/12) U-Phils: Hennig and Aktunc on Gelman 2012
• (10/13) Mayo Responds to U-Phils on Background Information
• (10/15) New Kvetch: race-based academics in Fla
• (10/17) RMM-8: New Mayo paper: “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2 (Shallow vs Deep Explorations)”
• (10/18) Query
• (10/18) Mayo: (first 2 sections) “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2”
• (10/20) Mayo: (section 5) “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2”
• (10/21) Mayo: (section 6) “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2”
• (10/22) Mayo: (section 7) “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2”
• (10/24) Announcement: Ontology and Methodology (Virginia Tech)
• (10/25) New rejected post: phil faux
• (10/27) New rejected post: “Are you butter off now?”
• (10/29) Reblogging: Oxford Gaol: Statistical Bogeymen
• (10/29) Type 1 and 2 errors: Frankenstorm
• (10/30) Guest Post: Greg Gandenberger, “Evidential Meaning and Methods of Inference”
• (10/31) U-Phil: Blogging the Likelihood Principle: New Summary

November 2012

• (11/04) PhilStat: So you’re looking for a Ph.D. dissertation topic?
• (11/07) Seminars at the London School of Economics: Contemporary Problems in Philosophy of Statistics
• (11/10) Bad news bears: ‘Bayesian bear’ rejoinder – reblog
• (11/12) new rejected post: kvetch (and query)
• (11/14) continuing the comments. …
• (11/16) Philosophy of Science Association (PSA) 2012 Program
• (11/18) What is Bayesian/Frequentist Inference? (from the normal deviate)
• (11/18) New kvetch/PhilStock: Rapiscan Scam
• (11/19) Comments on Wasserman’s “what is Bayesian/frequentist inference?”
• (11/21) Irony and Bad Faith: Deconstructing Bayesians – reblog
• (11/23) Announcement: 28 November: My Seminar at the LSE (Contemporary PhilStat)
• (11/25) Likelihood Links [for 28 Nov. Seminar and Current U-Phil]
• (11/28) Blogging Birnbaum: on Statistical Methods in Scientific Inference
• (11/30) Error Statistics (brief overview)

December 2012

• (12/2) Normal Deviate’s blog on false discovery rates
• (12/2) Statistical Science meets Philosophy of Science
• (12/3) Mayo Commentary on Gelman & Robert’s paper
• (12/6) Announcement: U-Phil Extension: Blogging the Likelihood Principle
• (12/7) Nov. Palindrome Winner: Kepler
• (12/8) Don’t Birnbaumize that experiment my friend*–updated reblog
• (12/11) Announcement: Prof. Stephen Senn to lead LSE grad seminar: 12-12-12
• (12/11) Mayo on S. Senn: “How Can We Cultivate Senn’s-Ability?”
• (12/13) “Bad statistics”: crime of free speech?
• (12/14) PhilStat/Law (“Bad Statistics” Cont.)
• (12/17) PhilStat/Law/Stock: multiplicity and duplicity
• (12/19) PhilStat/Law/Stock: more on “bad statistics”: Schachtman
• (12/21) Rejected Post: Clinical Trial Statistics Doomed by Mayan Apocalypse?
• (12/22) Msc kvetch: unfair but lawful discrimination (vs the irresistibly attractive)
• (12/24) 13 well-worn criticisms of significance tests (and how to avoid them)
• (12/27) 3 msc kvetches on the blog bagel circuit
• (12/30) An established probability theory for hair comparison?“–is not — and never was”
• (12/31) Midnight with Birnbaum-reblog

January 2013

• (1/2) Severity as a ‘Metastatistical’ Assessment
• (1/4) Severity Calculator
• (1/6) Guest post: Bad Pharma? (S. Senn)
• (1/9) RCTs, skeptics, and evidence-based policy
• (1/10) James M. Buchanan
• (1/11) Aris Spanos: James M. Buchanan: a scholar, teacher and friend
• (1/12) Error Statistics Blog: Table of Contents
• (1/15) Ontology & Methodology: Second call for Abstracts, Papers
• (1/18) New Kvetch/PhilStock
• (1/19) Saturday Night Brainstorming and Task Forces: (2013) TFSI on NHST
• (1/22) New PhilStock
• (1/23) P-values as posterior odds?
• (1/26) Coming up: December U-Phil Contributions….
• (1/27) U-Phil: S. Fletcher & N.Jinn
• (1/30) U-Phil: J. A. Miller: Blogging the SLP

February 2013

• (2/2) U-Phil: Ton o’ Bricks
• (2/4) January Palindrome Winner
• (2/6) Mark Chang (now) gets it right about circularity
• (2/8) From Gelman’s blog: philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics
• (2/9) New kvetch: Filly Fury
• (2/10) U-PHIL: Gandenberger & Hennig: Blogging Birnbaum’s Proof
• (2/11) U-Phil: Mayo’s response to Hennig and Gandenberger
• (2/13) Statistics as a Counter to Heavyweights…who wrote this?
• (2/16) Fisher and Neyman after anger management?
• (2/17) R. A. Fisher: how an outsider revolutionized statistics
• (2/20) Fisher: from ‘Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood’
• (2/23) Stephen Senn: Also Smith and Jones
• (2/26) PhilStock: DO < $70
• (2/26) Statistically speaking…

March 2013

• (3/1) capitalizing on chance
• (3/4) Big Data or Pig Data?
• (3/7) Stephen Senn: Casting Stones
• (3/10) Blog Contents 2013 (Jan & Feb)
• (3/11) S. Stanley Young: Scientific Integrity and Transparency
• (3/13) Risk-Based Security: Knives and Axes
• (3/15) Normal Deviate: Double Misunderstandings About p-values
• (3/17) Update on Higgs data analysis: statistical flukes (1)
• (3/21) Telling the public why the Higgs particle matters
• (3/23) Is NASA suspending public education and outreach?
• (3/27) Higgs analysis and statistical flukes (part 2)
• (3/31) possible progress on the comedy hour circuit?

April 2013

• (4/1) Flawed Science and Stapel: Priming for a Backlash?
• (4/4) Guest Post. Kent Staley: On the Five Sigma Standard in Particle Physics
• (4/6) Who is allowed to cheat? I.J. Good and that after dinner comedy hour….
• (4/10) Statistical flukes (3): triggering the switch to throw out 99.99% of the data
• (4/11) O & M Conference (upcoming) and a bit more on triggering from a participant…..
• (4/14) Does statistics have an ontology? Does it need one? (draft 2)
• (4/19) Stephen Senn: When relevance is irrelevant
• (4/22) Majority say no to inflight cell phone use, knives, toy bats, bow and arrows, according to survey
• (4/23) PhilStock: Applectomy? (rejected post)
• (4/25) Blog Contents 2013 (March)
• (4/27) Getting Credit (or blame) for Something You Didn’t Do (BP oil spill, comedy hour)
• (4/29) What should philosophers of science do? (falsification, Higgs, statistics, Marilyn)

May 2013

• (5/3) Schedule for Ontology & Methodology, 2013
• (5/6) Professorships in Scandal?
• (5/9) If it’s called the “The High Quality Research Act,” then ….
• (5/13) ‘No-Shame’ Psychics Keep Their Predictions Vague: New Rejected post
• (5/14) “A sense of security regarding the future of statistical science…” Anon review of Error and Inference
• (5/18) Gandenberger on Ontology and Methodology (May 4) Conference: Virginia Tech
• (5/19) Mayo: Meanderings on the Onto-Methodology Conference
• (5/22) Mayo’s slides from the Onto-Meth conference
• (5/24) Gelman sides w/ Neyman over Fisher in relation to a famous blow-up
• (5/26) Schachtman: High, Higher, Highest Quality Research Act
• (5/27) A.Birnbaum: Statistical Methods in Scientific Inference
• (5/29) K. Staley: review of Error & Inference

June 2013

• (6/1) Winner of May Palindrome Contest
• (6/1) Some statistical dirty laundry
• (6/5) Do CIs Avoid Fallacies of Tests? Reforming the Reformers (Reblog 5/17/12):
• (6/6) PhilStock: Topsy-Turvy Game
• (6/6) Anything Tests Can do, CIs do Better; CIs Do Anything Better than Tests?* (reforming the reformers cont.)
• (6/8) Richard Gill: “Integrity or fraud… or just questionable research practices?”
• (6/11) Mayo: comment on the repressed memory research
• (6/14) P-values can’t be trusted except when used to argue that p-values can’t be trusted!
• (6/19) PhilStock: The Great Taper Caper
• (6/19) Stanley Young: better p-values through randomization in microarrays
• (6/22) What do these share in common: m&ms, limbo stick, ovulation, Dale Carnegie? Sat night potpourri
• (6/26) Why I am not a “dualist” in the sense of Sander Greenland
• (6/29) Palindrome “contest” contest
• (6/30) Blog Contents: mid-year

July 2013

• (7/3) Phil/Stat/Law: 50 Shades of gray between error and fraud
• (7/6) Bad news bears: ‘Bayesian bear’ rejoinder–reblog mashup
• (7/10) PhilStatLaw: Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence (3d ed) on Statistical Significance (Schachtman)
• (7/11) Is Particle Physics Bad Science? (memory lane)
• (7/13) Professor of Philosophy Resigns over Sexual Misconduct (rejected post)
• (7/14) Stephen Senn: Indefinite irrelevance
• (7/17) Phil/Stat/Law: What Bayesian prior should a jury have? (Schachtman)
• (7/19) Msc Kvetch: A question on the Martin-Zimmerman case we do not hear
• (7/20) Guest Post: Larry Laudan. Why Presuming Innocence is Not a Bayesian Prior
• (7/23) Background Knowledge: Not to Quantify, But To Avoid Being Misled By, Subjective Beliefs
• (7/26) New Version: On the Birnbaum argument for the SLP: Slides for JSM talk

August 2013

• (8/1) Blogging (flogging?) the SLP: Response to Reply- Xi’an Robert
• (8/5) At the JSM: 2013 International Year of Statistics
• (8/6) What did Nate Silver just say? Blogging the JSM
• (8/9) 11^th bullet, multiple choice question, and last thoughts on the JSM
• (8/11) E.S. Pearson: “Ideas came into my head as I sat on a gate overlooking an experimental blackcurrant plot”
• (8/13) Blogging E.S. Pearson’s Statistical Philosophy
• (8/15) A. Spanos: Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics
• (8/17) Gandenberger: How to Do Philosophy That Matters (guest post)
• (8/21) Blog contents: July, 2013
• (8/22) PhilStock: Flash Freeze
• (8/22) A critical look at “critical thinking”: deduction and induction
• (8/28) Is being lonely unnatural for slim particles? A statistical argument
• (8/31) Overheard at the comedy hour at the Bayesian retreat-2 years on

September 2013

• (9/2) Is Bayesian Inference a Religion?
• (9/3) Gelman’s response to my comment on Jaynes
• (9/5) Stephen Senn: Open Season (guest post)
• (9/7) First blog: “Did you hear the one about the frequentist…”? and “Frequentists in Exile”
• (9/10) Peircean Induction and the Error-Correcting Thesis (Part I)
• (9/10) (Part 2) Peircean Induction and the Error-Correcting Thesis
• (9/12) (Part 3) Peircean Induction and the Error-Correcting Thesis
• (9/14) “When Bayesian Inference Shatters” Owhadi, Scovel, and Sullivan (guest post)
• (9/18) PhilStock: Bad news is good news on Wall St.
• (9/18) How to hire a fraudster chauffeur
• (9/22) Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”
• (9/23) Barnard’s Birthday: background, likelihood principle, intentions
• (9/24) Gelman est efffectivement une erreur statistician
• (9/26) Blog Contents: August 2013
• (9/29) Highly probable vs highly probed: Bayesian/ error statistical differences

October 2013

• (10/3) Will the Real Junk Science Please Stand Up? (critical thinking)
• (10/5) Was Janina Hosiasson pulling Harold Jeffreys’ leg?
• (10/9) Bad statistics: crime or free speech (II)? Harkonen update: Phil Stat / Law /Stock
• (10/12) Sir David Cox: a comment on the post, “Was Hosiasson pulling Jeffreys’ leg?”
• (10/19) Blog Contents: September 2013
• (10/19) Bayesian Confirmation Philosophy and the Tacking Paradox (iv)*
• (10/25) Bayesian confirmation theory: example from last post…
• (10/26) Comedy hour at the Bayesian (epistemology) retreat: highly probable vs highly probed (vs what ?)
• (10/31) WHIPPING BOYS AND WITCH HUNTERS

November 2013

• (11/2) Oxford Gaol: Statistical Bogeymen
• (11/4) Forthcoming paper on the strong likelihood principle
• (11/9) Null Effects and Replication
• (11/9) Beware of questionable front page articles warning you to beware of questionable front page articles (iii)
• (11/13) T. Kepler: “Trouble with ‘Trouble at the Lab’?” (guest post)
• (11/16) PhilStock: No-pain bull
• (11/16) S. Stanley Young: More Trouble with ‘Trouble in the Lab’ (Guest post)
• (11/18) Lucien Le Cam: “The Bayesians hold the Magic”
• (11/20) Erich Lehmann: Statistician and Poet
• (11/23) Probability that it is a statistical fluke [i]
• (11/27) “The probability that it be a statistical fluke” [iia]
• (11/30) Saturday night comedy at the “Bayesian Boy” diary (rejected post*)

December 2013

• (12/3) Stephen Senn: Dawid’s Selection Paradox (guest post)
• (12/7) FDA’s New Pharmacovigilance
• (12/9) Why ecologists might want to read more philosophy of science (UPDATED)
• (12/11) Blog Contents for Oct and Nov 2013
• (12/14) The error statistician has a complex, messy, subtle, ingenious piece-meal approach
• (12/15) Surprising Facts about Surprising Facts
• (12/19) A. Spanos lecture on “Frequentist Hypothesis Testing”
• (12/24) U-Phil: Deconstructions [of J. Berger]: Irony & Bad Faith 3
• (12/25) “Bad Arguments” (a book by Ali Almossawi)
• (12/26) Mascots of Bayesneon statistics (rejected post)
• (12/27) Deconstructing Larry Wasserman
• (12/28) More on deconstructing Larry Wasserman (Aris Spanos)
• (12/28) Wasserman on Wasserman: Update! December 28, 2013
• (12/31) Midnight With Birnbaum (Happy New Year)

January 2014

• (1/2) Winner of the December 2013 Palindrome Book Contest (Rejected Post)
• (1/3) Error Statistics Philosophy: 2013
• (1/4) Your 2014 wishing well. …
• (1/7) “Philosophy of Statistical Inference and Modeling” New Course: Spring 2014: Mayo and Spanos: (Virginia Tech)
• (1/11) Two Severities? (PhilSci and PhilStat)
• (1/14) Statistical Science meets Philosophy of Science: blog beginnings
• (1/16) Objective/subjective, dirty hands and all that: Gelman/Wasserman blogolog (ii)
• (1/18) Sir Harold Jeffreys’ (tail area) one-liner: Sat night comedy [draft ii]
• (1/22) Phil6334: “Philosophy of Statistical Inference and Modeling” New Course: Spring 2014: Mayo and Spanos (Virginia Tech) UPDATE: JAN 21
• (1/24) Phil 6334: Slides from Day #1: Four Waves in Philosophy of Statistics
• (1/25) U-Phil (Phil 6334) How should “prior information” enter in statistical inference?
• (1/27) Winner of the January 2014 palindrome contest (rejected post)
• (1/29) BOSTON COLLOQUIUM FOR PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE: Revisiting the Foundations of Statistics
• (1/31) Phil 6334: Day #2 Slides

February 2014

• (2/1) Comedy hour at the Bayesian (epistemology) retreat: highly probable vs highly probed (vs B-boosts)
• (2/3) PhilStock: Bad news is bad news on Wall St. (rejected post)
• (2/5) “Probabilism as an Obstacle to Statistical Fraud-Busting” (draft iii)
• (2/9) Phil6334: Day #3: Feb 6, 2014
• (2/10) Is it true that all epistemic principles can only be defended circularly? A Popperian puzzle
• (2/12) Phil6334: Popper self-test
• (2/13) Phil 6334 Statistical Snow Sculpture
• (2/14) January Blog Table of Contents
• (2/15) Fisher and Neyman after anger management?
• (2/17) R. A. Fisher: how an outsider revolutionized statistics
• (2/18) Aris Spanos: The Enduring Legacy of R. A. Fisher
• (2/20) R.A. Fisher: ‘Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood’
• (2/21) STEPHEN SENN: Fisher’s alternative to the alternative
• (2/22) Sir Harold Jeffreys’ (tail-area) one-liner: Sat night comedy [draft ii]
• (2/24) Phil6334: February 20, 2014 (Spanos): Day #5
• (2/26) Winner of the February 2014 palindrome contest (rejected post)
• (2/26) Phil6334: Feb 24, 2014: Induction, Popper and pseudoscience (Day #4)

March 2014

• (3/1) Cosma Shalizi gets tenure (at last!) (metastat announcement)
• (3/2) Significance tests and frequentist principles of evidence: Phil6334 Day #6
• (3/3) Capitalizing on Chance (ii)
• (3/4) Power, power everywhere–(it) may not be what you think! [illustration]
• (3/8) Msc kvetch: You are fully dressed (even under you clothes)?
• (3/8) Fallacy of Rejection and the Fallacy of Nouvelle Cuisine
• (3/11) Phil6334 Day #7: Selection effects, the Higgs and 5 sigma, Power
• (3/12) Get empowered to detect power howlers
• (3/15) New SEV calculator (guest app: Durvasula)
• (3/17) Stephen Senn: “Delta Force: To what extent is clinical relevance relevant?” (Guest Post)
• (3/19) Power taboos: Statue of Liberty, Senn, Neyman, Carnap, Severity
• (3/22) Fallacies of statistics & statistics journalism, and how to avoid them: Summary & Slides Day #8 (Phil 6334)
• (3/25) The Unexpected Way Philosophy Majors Are Changing The World Of Business
• (3/26) Phil6334:Misspecification Testing: Ordering From A Full Diagnostic Menu (part 1)
• (3/28) Severe osteometric probing of skeletal remains: John Byrd
• (3/29) Winner of the March 2014 palindrome contest (rejected post)
• (3/30) Phil6334: March 26, philosophy of misspecification testing (Day #9 slides)

April 2014

• (4/1) Skeptical and enthusiastic Bayesian priors for beliefs about insane asylum renovations at Dept of Homeland Security: I’m skeptical and unenthusiastic
• (4/3) Self-referential blogpost (conditionally accepted*)
• (4/5) Who is allowed to cheat? I.J. Good and that after dinner comedy hour. . ..
• (4/6) Phil6334: Duhem’s Problem, highly probable vs highly probed; Day #9 Slides
• (4/8) “Out Damned Pseudoscience: Non-significant results are the new ‘Significant’ results!” (update)
• (4/12) “Murder or Coincidence?” Statistical Error in Court: Richard Gill (TEDx video)
• (4/14) Phil6334: Notes on Bayesian Inference: Day #11 Slides
• (4/16) A. Spanos: Jerzy Neyman and his Enduring Legacy
• (4/17) Duality: Confidence intervals and the severity of tests
• (4/19) Getting Credit (or blame) for Something You Didn’t Do (BP oil spill)
• (4/21) Phil 6334: Foundations of statistics and its consequences: Day#12
• (4/23) Phil 6334 Visitor: S. Stanley Young, “Statistics and Scientific Integrity”
• (4/26) Reliability and Reproducibility: Fraudulent p-values through multiple testing (and other biases): S. Stanley Young (Phil 6334: Day #13)
• (4/30) Able Stats Elba: 3 Palindrome nominees for April! (rejected post)

May 2014

• (5/1) Putting the brakes on the breakthrough: An informal look at the argument for the Likelihood Principle
• (5/3) You can only become coherent by ‘converting’ non-Bayesianly
• (5/6) Winner of April Palindrome contest: Lori Wike
• (5/7) A. Spanos: Talking back to the critics using error statistics (Phil6334)
• (5/10) Who ya gonna call for statistical Fraudbusting? R.A. Fisher, P-values, and error statistics (again)
• (5/15) Scientism and Statisticism: a conference* (i)
• (5/17) Deconstructing Andrew Gelman: “A Bayesian wants everybody else to be a non-Bayesian.”
• (5/20) The Science Wars & the Statistics Wars: More from the Scientism workshop
• (5/25) Blog Table of Contents: March and April 2014
• (5/27) Allan Birnbaum, Philosophical Error Statistician: 27 May 1923 – 1 July 1976
• (5/31) What have we learned from the Anil Potti training and test data frameworks? Part 1 (draft 2)

June 2014

• (6/5) Stephen Senn: Blood Simple? The complicated and controversial world of bioequivalence (guest post)
• (6/9) “The medical press must become irrelevant to publication of clinical trials.”
• (6/11) A. Spanos: “Recurring controversies about P values and confidence intervals revisited”
• (6/14) “Statistical Science and Philosophy of Science: where should they meet?”
• (6/21) Big Bayes Stories? (draft ii)
• (6/25) Blog Contents: May 2014
• (6/28) Sir David Hendry Gets Lifetime Achievement Award
• (6/30) Some ironies in the ‘replication crisis’ in social psychology (4^th and final installment)

July 2014

• (7/7) Winner of June Palindrome Contest: Lori Wike
• (7/8) Higgs Discovery 2 years on (1: “Is particle physics bad science?”)
• (7/10) Higgs Discovery 2 years on (2: Higgs analysis and statistical flukes)
• (7/14) “P-values overstate the evidence against the null”: legit or fallacious? (revised)
• (7/23) Continued:”P-values overstate the evidence against the null”: legit or fallacious?
• (7/26) S. Senn: “Responder despondency: myths of personalized medicine” (Guest Post)
• (7/31) Roger Berger on Stephen Senn’s “Blood Simple” with a response by Senn (Guest Posts)

August 2014

• (08/03) Blogging Boston JSM2014?
• (08/05) Neyman, Power, and Severity
• (08/06) What did Nate Silver just say? Blogging the JSM 2013
• (08/09) Winner of July Palindrome: Manan Shah
• (08/09) Blog Contents: June and July 2014
• (08/11) Egon Pearson’s Heresy
• (08/17) Are P Values Error Probabilities? Or, “It’s the methods, stupid!” (2^nd install)
• (08/23) Has Philosophical Superficiality Harmed Science?
• (08/29) BREAKING THE LAW! (of likelihood): to keep their fit measures in line (A), (B 2^nd)

September 2014

• (9/30) Letter from George (Barnard)
• (9/27) Should a “Fictionfactory” peepshow be barred from a festival on “Truth and Reality”? Diederik Stapel says no (rejected post)
• (9/23) G.A. Barnard: The Bayesian “catch-all” factor: probability vs likelihood
• (9/21) Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”
• (9/18) Uncle Sam wants YOU to help with scientific reproducibility!
• (9/15) A crucial missing piece in the Pistorius trial? (2): my answer (Rejected Post)
• (9/12) “The Supernal Powers Withhold Their Hands And Let Me Alone”: C.S. Peirce
• (9/6) Statistical Science: The Likelihood Principle issue is out…!
• (9/4) All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy Contents-3 years on
• (9/3) 3 in blog years: Sept 3 is 3rd anniversary of errorstatistics.com

[i]Table of Contents compiled by N. Jinn & J. Miller)*

*I thank Jean Miller for her assiduous work on the blog, and all contributors and readers for helping “frequentists in exile” to feel (and truly become) less exiled–wherever they may be!