All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 7 years on

Error Statistics Philosophy: Blog Contents (7 years) [i]
By: D. G. Mayo

Dear Reader: I began this blog 7 years ago (Sept. 3, 2011)! A big celebration is taking place at the Elbar Room this evening, both for the blog and the appearance of my new book: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars (CUP). While a special rush edition made an appearance on Sept 3, in time for the RSS meeting in Cardiff, it was decided to hold off on the festivities until copies of the book were officially available (yesterday)! If you’re in the neighborhood, stop by for some Elba Grease

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Many of the discussions in the book were importantly influenced (corrected and improved) by reader’s comments on the blog over the years. I thank readers for their input. Please peruse the offerings below, taking advantage of the discussions by guest posters and readers! I posted the first 3 sections of Tour I (in Excursion i) here, here, and here.
This blog will return to life, although I’m not yet sure of exactly what form it will take. Ideas are welcome. The tone of a book differs from a blog, so we’ll have to see what voice emerges here.

Sincerely,

D. Mayo

September 2011

(9/3) Frequentists in Exile: The Purpose of this Blog

(9/3) Overheard at the comedy hour at the Bayesian retreat

(9/4) Drilling Rule #1

(9/9) Kuru

(9/13) In Exile, Clinging to Old Ideas?

(9/15) SF conferences & E. Lehmann

(9/16) Getting It Right But for the Wrong Reason
Whipping boys and Witch Hunters

(9/20) A Highly Anomalous Event

(9/23) LUCKY 13 (Critcisms)

(9/26) Whipping Boys and Witch Hunters

(9/29) Part 1: Imaginary scientist at an imaginary company, Prionvac, and an imaginary reformer

October 2011

(10/3) Part 2 Prionvac: The Will to Understand Power

(10/4) Part 3 Prionvac: How the Reformers Should Have done Their Job

(10/5) Formaldehyde Hearing: How to Tell the Truth With Statistically Insignificant Results

(10/7) Blogging the (Strong) Likelihood Principle

(10/10) RMM-1: Special Volume on Stat Sci Meets Phil Sci
Dirty Hands

(10/10) Objectivity 1: Will the Real Junk Science Please Stand Up?

(10/13) Objectivity #2: The “Dirty Hands” Argument for Ethics in Evidence

(10/14) King Tut Includes ErrorStatistics in Top 50 Statblogs!

(10/16) Objectivity #3: Clean(er) Hands With Metastatistcs

(10/19) RMM-2: “A Conversation Between Sir David Cox & D.G. Mayo
Sir David Cox & D. Mayo

(10/20) Blogging the Likelihood Principle #2: Solitary Fishing: SLP Violations

(10/22) The Will to Understand Power: Neyman’s Nursery (NN1)

(10/28) RMM-3: Special Volume on Stat Scie Meets Phl Sci (Hendry)

(10/30) Background Knowledge: Not to Quantify, but to Avoid Being Misled by, Subjective Beliefs

(10/31) Oxford Gaol: Statistical Bogeymen

November 2011

(11/1) RMM-4: Special Volume on Stat Scie Meets Phil Sci (Spanos)

(11/3) Who is Really Doing the Work?*

(11/5) Skeleton Key and Skeletal Points for (Esteemed) Ghost Guest

(11/9) Neyman’s Nursery 2: Power and Severity [Continuation of Oct. 22 Post]

(11/12) Neyman’s Nursery (NN) 3: SHPOWER vs POWER

(11/15) Logic Takes a Bit of a Hit!: (NN 4) Continuing: Shpower (“observed” power) vs Power
Elbar grease

(11/18) Neyman’s Nursery (NN5): Final Post

(11/21) RMM-5: Special Volume on Stat Scie Meets Phil Sci (Wasserman)

(11/23) Elbar Grease: Return to the Comedy Hour at the Bayesian Retreat

(11/28) The UN Charter: double-counting and data snooping

(11/29) If you try sometime, you find you get what you need!

December 2011

(12/2) Getting Credit (or blame) for Something You Don’t Deserve (and first honorable mention)

(12/6) Putting the Brakes on the Breakthrough Part 1*
Brakes on breakthrough

(12/7) Part II: Breaking Through the Breakthrough*

(12/11) Irony and Bad Faith: Deconstructing Bayesians
J. Berger & D. Mayo

(12/19) Deconstructing and Deep-Drilling* 2

(12/22) The 3 stages of the acceptance of novel truths

(12/25) Little Bit of Blog Log-ic

(12/26) Contributed Deconstructions: Irony & Bad Faith 3
midnight w/ Birnbaum.

(12/29) JIM BERGER ON JIM BERGER!

(12/31) Midnight With Birnbaum

January 2012

(1/3) Model Validation and the LLP-(Long Playing Vinyl Record)

(1/8) Don’t Birnbaumize that Experiment my Friend*

(1/10) Bad-Faith Assertions of Conflicts of Interest?*

(1/13) U-PHIL: “So you want to do a philosophical analysis?”

(1/14) “You May Believe You are a Bayesian But You Are Probably Wrong” (Extract from Senn RMM article)

(1/15) Mayo Philosophizes on Stephen Senn: “How Can We Culivate Senn’s-Ability?”

(1/17) “Philosophy of Statistics”: Nelder on Lindley

(1/19) RMM-6 Special Volume on Stat Sci Meets Phil Sci (Sprenger)
no-pain philosophy

(1/22) U-Phil: Stephen Senn (1): C. Robert, A. Jaffe, and Mayo (brief remarks)

(1/23) U-Phil: Stephen Senn (2): Andrew Gelman

(1/24) U-Phil (3): Stephen Senn on Stephen Senn!

(1/26) Updating & Downdating: One of the Pieces to Pick up

(1/29) No-Pain Philosophy: Skepticism, Rationality, Popper, and All That: First of 3 Parts

February 2012

17 February 1890–29 July 1962

(2/3) Senn Again (Gelman)

(2/7) When Can Risk-Factor Epidemiology Provide Reliable Tests?
N. Schachtman

(2/8) Guest Blogger: Interstitial Doubts About the Matrixx (Schachtman)

(2/8) Distortions in the Court? (PhilStat/PhilStock) **Cobb on Zilizk & McCloskey

(2/11) R.A. Fisher: Statistical Methods and Scientific Inference

(2/11) JERZY NEYMAN: Note on an Article by Sir Ronald Fisher

(2/12) E.S. Pearson: Statistical Concepts in Their Relation to Reality
E. S. Pearson

(2/12) Guest Blogger. STEPHEN SENN: Fisher’s alternative to the alternative

(2/15) Guest Blogger. Aris Spanos: The Enduring Legacy of R.A. Fisher
A. Spanos

(2/17) Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood

(2/20) Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”? (Rejected Post Feb 20)

(2/22) Intro to Misspecification Testing: Ordering From A Full Diagnostic Menu (part 1)

(2/23) Misspecification Testing: (part 2) A Fallacy of Error “Fixing”

(2/27) Misspecification Testing: (part 3) Subtracting-out effects “on paper”

(2/28) Misspecification Tests: (part 4) and brief concluding remarks

March 2012

(3/2) MetaBlog: March 2, 2012

(3/3) Statistical Science Court?

(3/6) Mayo, Senn, and Wasserman on Gelman’s RMM** Contribution
Gelman

(3/8) Lifting a piece from Spanos’ contribution* will usefully add to the mix

(3/10) U-PHIL: A Further Comment on Gelman by Christian Henning (UCL, Statistics)

(3/11) Blogologue*

(3/11) RMM-7: Commentary and Response on Senn published: Special Volume on Stat Scie Meets Phil Sci

(3/14) Objectivity (#4) and the “Argument From Discretion”
Mayo

(3/18) Objectivity (#5): Three Reactions to the Challenge of Objectivity (in inference)

(3/22) Generic Drugs Resistant to Lawsuits

(3/25) The New York Times Goes to War Against Generic Drug Manufacturers: Schactman

(3/26) Announcement: Philosophy of Scientific Experiment Conference

(3/28) Comment on the Barnard and Copas (2002) Empirical Example: Aris Spanos

April 2012

(4/1) Philosophy of Statistics: Retraction Watch, Vol. 1, No. 1
N. Schachtman

(4/3) History and Philosophy of Evidence-Based Health Care

(4/4) Fallacy of Rejection and the Fallacy of Nouvelle Cuisine
Mason

(4/6) Going Where the Data Take Us

(4/9) N. Schachtman: Judge Posner’s Digression on Regression

(4/10) Call for papers: Philosepi?

(4/12) That Promissory Note From Lehmann’s Letter; Schmidt to Speak

(4/15) U-Phil: Deconstructing Dynamic Dutch-Books?

(4/16) A. Spanos: Jerzy Neyman and his Enduring Legacy
A. Spanos

(4/17) Earlier U-Phils and Deconstructions

(4/18) Jean Miller: Happy Sweet 16 to EGEK! (Shalizi Review: “We have Ways of Making You Talk”)
EGEK at 16

(4/21) Jean Miller: Happy Sweet 16 to EGEK #2 (Hasok Chang Review of EGEK)

(4/23) U-Phil: Jon Williamson: Deconstructing DynamicDutch Books

(4/25) Matching Numbers Across Philosophies

(4/28) Comedy Hour at the Bayesian Retreat: P-values versus Posteriors

May 2012

(5/1) Stephen Senn: A Paradox of Prior Probabilities
Comedy hour

(5/5) Comedy Hour at the Bayesian (Epistemology) Retreat: Highly Probable vs Highly Probed

(5/8) LSE Summer Seminar: Contemporary Problems in Philosophy of Statistics

(5/10) Excerpts from S. Senn’s Letter on “Replication, p-values and Evidence,”

(5/12) Saturday Night Brainstorming & Task Forces: The TFSI on
NHST Task Force 1

NHST

(5/17) Do CIs Avoid Fallacies of Tests? Reforming the Reformers

(5/20) Betting, Bookies and Bayes: Does it Not Matter?

(5/23) Does the Bayesian Diet Call For Error-Statistical Supplements?
painting by number

(5/24) An Error-Statistical Philosophy of Evidence (PH500, LSE Seminar)

(5/28) Painting-by-Number #1

(5/31) Metablog: May 31, 2012

June 2012

(6/2) Anything Tests Can do, CIs do Better; CIs Do Anything Better than Tests?* (reforming the reformers cont.)
C. Hennig

(6/6) Review of Error and Inference by C. Hennig

(6/9) U-Phil: Is the Use of Power* Open to a Power Paradox?

(6/12) CMU Workshop on Foundations for Ockham’s Razor

(6/14) Answer to the Homework & a New Exercise

(6/15) Scratch Work for a SEV Homework Problem

(6/17) Repost (5/17/12): Do CIs Avoid Fallacies of Tests? Reforming the Reformers

(6/17) G. Cumming Response: The New Statistics

(6/19) The Error Statistical Philosophy and The Practice of Bayesian Statistics: Comments on Gelman and Shalizi

(6/23) Promissory Note

(6/26) Deviates, Sloths, and Exiles: Philosophical Remarks on the Ockham’s Razor Workshop*

(6/29) Further Reflections on Simplicity: Mechanisms

July 2012

(7/1) PhilStatLaw: “Let’s Require Health Claims to Be ‘Evidence Based’” (Schachtman)
Schachtman

(7/2) More from the Foundations of Simplicity Workshop*

(7/3) Elliott Sober Responds on Foundations of Simplicity
E. Sober

(7/4) Comment on Falsification

(7/6) Vladimir Cherkassky Responds on Foundations of Simplicity

(7/8) Metablog: Up and Coming

(7/9) Stephen Senn: Randomization, ratios and rationality: rescuing the randomized clinical trial from its critics

(7/10) PhilStatLaw: Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence (3d ed) on Statistical Significance (Schachtman)

(7/11) Is Particle Physics Bad Science?
Higgs

(7/12) Dennis Lindley’s “Philosophy of Statistics”

(7/15) Deconstructing Larry Wasserman – it starts like this…

(7/16) Peter Grünwald: Follow-up on Cherkassky’s Comments

(7/19) New Kvetch Posted 7/18/12

(7/21) “Always the last place you look!”

(7/22) Clark Glymour: The Theory of Search Is the Economics of Discovery (part 1)
C. Glymour

(7/23) Clark Glymour: The Theory of Search Is the Economics of Discovery (part 2)

(7/27) P-values as Frequentist Measures

(7/28) U-PHIL: Deconstructing Larry Wasserman
Larry Wasserman

(7/31) What’s in a Name? (Gelman’s blog)

August 2012

(8/2) Stephen Senn: Fooling the Patient: an Unethical Use of Placebo? (Phil/Stat/Med)

(8/5) A “Bayesian Bear” rejoinder practically writes itself…
Bayesian bear rejoinder

(8/6) Bad news bears: Bayesian rejoinder

(8/8) U-PHIL: Aris Spanos on Larry Wasserman

(8/10) U-PHIL: Hennig and Gelman on Wasserman (2011)

(8/11) E.S. Pearson Birthday
E.S. Pearson

(8/11) U-PHIL: Wasserman Replies to Spanos and Hennig

(8/13) U-Phil: (concluding the deconstruction) Wasserman/Mayo

(8/14) Good Scientist Badge of Approval?

(8/16) E.S. Pearson’s Statistical Philosophy

(8/18) A. Spanos: Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics

(8/20) Higgs Boson: Bayesian “Digest and Discussion”

(8/22) Scalar or Technicolor? S. Weinberg, “Why the Higgs?”

(8/27) Knowledge/evidence not captured by mathematical prob.

(8/30) Frequentist Pursuit

(8/31) Failing to Apply vs Violating the Likelihood Principle
Comedy Hour

September 2012

(9/3) After dinner Bayesian comedy hour. …

(9/6) Stephen Senn: The nuisance parameter nuisance

(9/8) Metablog: One-Year Anniversary

(9/8) Return to the comedy hour … (on significance tests)

(9/12) U-Phil (9/25/12) How should “prior information” enter in statistical inference?
Barnard

(9/15) More on using background info

(9/19) Barnard, background info/intentions

(9/22) Statistics and ESP research (Diaconis)
ESP and stat

(9/25) Insevere tests and pseudoscience

(9/26) Levels of Inquiry

(9/29) Stephen Senn: On the (ir)relevance of stopping rules in meta-analysis

(9/30) Letter from George (Barnard)

October 2012

(10/02)PhilStatLaw: Infections in the court

(10/05) Metablog: Rejected posts (blog within a blog)

(10/05) Deconstructing Gelman, Part 1: “A Bayesian wants everybody else to be a non-Bayesian.”
A. Gelman

(10/07) Deconstructing Gelman, Part 2: Using prior information

(10/09) Last part (3) of the deconstruction: beauty and background knowledge

(10/12) U-Phils: Hennig and Aktunc on Gelman 2012

(10/13) Mayo Responds to U-Phils on Background Information

(10/15) New Kvetch: race-based academics in Fla

(10/17) RMM-8: New Mayo paper: “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2 (Shallow vs Deep Explorations)”

(10/18) Query

(10/18) Mayo: (first 2 sections) “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2”

(10/20) Mayo: (section 5) “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2”
Stat Sci & Phil Sci: 2010 LSE Conference

(10/21) Mayo: (section 6) “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2”

(10/22) Mayo: (section 7) “StatSci and PhilSci: part 2”

(10/24) Announcement: Ontology and Methodology (Virginia Tech)

(10/25) New rejected post: phil faux

(10/27) New rejected post: “Are you butter off now?”
G. Gandenberger

(10/29) Reblogging: Oxford Gaol: Statistical Bogeymen

(10/29) Type 1 and 2 errors: Frankenstorm

(10/30) Guest Post: Greg Gandenberger, “Evidential Meaning and Methods of Inference”

(10/31) U-Phil: Blogging the Likelihood Principle: New Summary

November 2012

(11/04) PhilStat: So you’re looking for a Ph.D. dissertation topic?
sexy statistics

(11/07) Seminars at the London School of Economics: Contemporary Problems in Philosophy of Statistics

(11/10) Bad news bears: ‘Bayesian bear’ rejoinder – reblog

(11/12) new rejected post: kvetch (and query)

(11/14) continuing the comments. …

(11/16) Philosophy of Science Association (PSA) 2012 Program

(11/18) What is Bayesian/Frequentist Inference? (from the normal deviate)
Larry Wasserman

(11/18) New kvetch/PhilStock: Rapiscan Scam

(11/19) Comments on Wasserman’s “what is Bayesian/frequentist inference?”

(11/21) Irony and Bad Faith: Deconstructing Bayesians – reblog

(11/23) Announcement: 28 November: My Seminar at the LSE (Contemporary PhilStat)

(11/25) Likelihood Links [for 28 Nov. Seminar and Current U-Phil]

(11/28) Blogging Birnbaum: on Statistical Methods in Scientific Inference

(11/30) Error Statistics (brief overview)

December 2012

(12/2) Normal Deviate’s blog on false discovery rates

(12/2) Statistical Science meets Philosophy of Science

(12/3) Mayo Commentary on Gelman & Robert’s paper

(12/6) Announcement: U-Phil Extension: Blogging the Likelihood Principle

(12/7) Nov. Palindrome Winner: Kepler
Thomas B. Kepler

(12/8) Don’t Birnbaumize that experiment my friend*–updated reblog

(12/11) Announcement: Prof. Stephen Senn to lead LSE grad seminar: 12-12-12
S. Senn

(12/11) Mayo on S. Senn: “How Can We Cultivate Senn’s-Ability?”

(12/13) “Bad statistics”: crime or free speech?

(12/14) PhilStat/Law (“Bad Statistics” Cont.)

(12/17) PhilStat/Law/Stock: multiplicity and duplicity
N. Schachtman

(12/19) PhilStat/Law/Stock: more on “bad statistics”: Schachtman

(12/21) Rejected Post: Clinical Trial Statistics Doomed by Mayan Apocalypse?

(12/22) Msc kvetch: unfair but lawful discrimination (vs the irresistibly attractive)

(12/24) 13 well-worn criticisms of significance tests (and how to avoid them)

(12/27) 3 msc kvetches on the blog bagel circuit
midnight w/ Birnbaum

(12/30) An established probability theory for hair comparison?“–is not — and never was”

(12/31) Midnight with Birnbaum-reblog

January 2013

(1/2) Severity as a ‘Metastatistical’ Assessment

(1/4) Severity Calculator

(1/6) Guest post: Bad Pharma? (S. Senn)

(1/9) RCTs, skeptics, and evidence-based policy
S. Senn

(1/10) James M. Buchanan

(1/11) Aris Spanos: James M. Buchanan: a scholar, teacher and friend

(1/12) Error Statistics Blog: Table of Contents

(1/15) Ontology & Methodology: Second call for Abstracts, Papers
NHST task force 2

(1/18) New Kvetch/PhilStock

(1/19) Saturday Night Brainstorming and Task Forces: (2013) TFSI on NHST

(1/22) New PhilStock

(1/23) P-values as posterior odds?
Jean Miller

(1/26) Coming up: December U-Phil Contributions….

(1/27) U-Phil: S. Fletcher & N.Jinn

(1/30) U-Phil: J. A. Miller: Blogging the SLP

February 2013

(2/2) U-Phil: Ton o’ Bricks
A. Spanos

(2/4) January Palindrome Winner

(2/6) Mark Chang (now) gets it right about circularity

(2/8) From Gelman’s blog: philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics

(2/9) New kvetch: Filly Fury

(2/10) U-PHIL: Gandenberger & Hennig: Blogging Birnbaum’s Proof

(2/11) U-Phil: Mayo’s response to Hennig and Gandenberger

(2/13) Statistics as a Counter to Heavyweights…who wrote this?

(2/16) Fisher and Neyman after anger management?

(2/17) R. A. Fisher: how an outsider revolutionized statistics

(2/20) Fisher: from ‘Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood’

(2/23) Stephen Senn: Also Smith and Jones

(2/26) PhilStock: DO < $70

(2/26) Statistically speaking…
Mayo at slots

March 2013

(3/1) capitalizing on chance

(3/4) Big Data or Pig Data?
S. Senn

pig data

(3/7) Stephen Senn: Casting Stones

(3/10) Blog Contents 2013 (Jan & Feb)

(3/11) S. Stanley Young: Scientific Integrity and Transparency

(3/13) Risk-Based Security: Knives and Axes

(3/15) Normal Deviate: Double Misunderstandings About
Stan Young

p-values

(3/17) Update on Higgs data analysis: statistical flukes (1)

(3/21) Telling the public why the Higgs particle matters

(3/23) Is NASA suspending public education and outreach?

(3/27) Higgs analysis and statistical flukes (part 2)

(3/31) possible progress on the comedy hour circuit?

April 2013

(4/1) Flawed Science and Stapel: Priming for a Backlash?
Kent Staley

(4/4) Guest Post. Kent Staley: On the Five Sigma Standard in Particle Physics
I. J. Good

(4/6) Who is allowed to cheat? I.J. Good and that after dinner comedy hour….

(4/10) Statistical flukes (3): triggering the switch to throw out 99.99% of the data

(4/11) O & M Conference (upcoming) and a bit more on triggering from a participant…..
Marilyn Monroe not walking past a Higgs

(4/14) Does statistics have an ontology? Does it need one? (draft 2)

(4/19) Stephen Senn: When relevance is irrelevant

(4/22) Majority say no to inflight cell phone use, knives, toy bats, bow and arrows, according to survey

(4/23) PhilStock: Applectomy? (rejected post)

(4/25) Blog Contents 2013 (March)

(4/27) Getting Credit (or blame) for Something You
BP oil spill comedy hour

Didn’t Do (BP oil spill, comedy hour)

(4/29) What should philosophers of science do? (falsification, Higgs, statistics, Marilyn)

May 2013

(5/3) Schedule for Ontology & Methodology, 2013

(5/6) Professorships in Scandal?

(5/9) If it’s called the “The High Quality Research Act,” then ….

(5/13) ‘No-Shame’ Psychics Keep Their Predictions Vague: New Rejected post

(5/14) “A sense of security regarding the future of statistical science…” Anon review of Error and Inference

(5/18) Gandenberger on Ontology and Methodology (May 4) Conference: Virginia Tech
onto-methodology

(5/19) Mayo: Meanderings on the Onto-Methodology Conference

(5/22) Mayo’s slides from the Onto-Meth conference

(5/24) Gelman sides w/ Neyman over Fisher in relation to a famous blow-up

(5/26) Schachtman: High, Higher, Highest Quality Research Act
Kent Staley

(5/27) A.Birnbaum: Statistical Methods in Scientific Inference

(5/29) K. Staley: review of Error & Inference

June 2013

(6/1) Winner of May Palindrome Contest

(6/1) Some statistical dirty laundry

(6/5) Do CIs Avoid Fallacies of Tests? Reforming the Reformers (Reblog 5/17/12):
Tests & CIs

(6/6) PhilStock: Topsy-Turvy Game

(6/6) Anything Tests Can do, CIs do Better; CIs Do Anything Better than Tests?* (reforming the reformers cont.)

(6/8) Richard Gill: “Integrity or fraud… or just questionable research practices?”
Richard Gill

(6/11) Mayo: comment on the repressed memory research

(6/14) P-values can’t be trusted except when used to argue that p-values can’t be trusted!

(6/19) PhilStock: The Great Taper Caper

(6/19) Stanley Young: better p-values through randomization in microarrays
Stan Young

(6/22) What do these share in common: m&ms, limbo stick, ovulation, Dale Carnegie? Sat night potpourri

(6/26) Why I am not a “dualist” in the sense of Sander Greenland

(6/29) Palindrome “contest” contest

(6/30) Blog Contents: mid-year

July 2013

(7/3) Phil/Stat/Law: 50 Shades of gray between error and fraud

(7/6) Bad news bears: ‘Bayesian bear’ rejoinder–reblog mashup

(7/10) PhilStatLaw: Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence (3d ed) on Statistical Significance (Schachtman)

(7/11) Is Particle Physics Bad Science? (memory lane)
Larry Laudan

(7/13) Professor of Philosophy Resigns over Sexual Misconduct (rejected post)

(7/14) Stephen Senn: Indefinite irrelevance

(7/17) Phil/Stat/Law: What Bayesian prior should a jury have? (Schachtman)

(7/19) Msc Kvetch: A question on the Martin-Zimmerman case we do not hear

(7/20) Guest Post: Larry Laudan. Why Presuming Innocence is Not a Bayesian Prior

(7/23) Background Knowledge: Not to Quantify, But To Avoid Being Misled By, Subjective Beliefs

(7/26) New Version: On the Birnbaum argument for the SLP: Slides for JSM talk

August 2013

(8/1) Blogging (flogging?) the SLP: Response to Reply- Xi’an Robert

(8/5) At the JSM: 2013 International Year of Statistics

(8/6) What did Nate Silver just say? Blogging the JSM

(8/9) 11^th bullet, multiple choice question, and last thoughts on the JSM

(8/11) E.S. Pearson: “Ideas came into my head as I sat on a gate overlooking an experimental blackcurrant plot”
Egon Pearson on a Gate (by D. Mayo)

(8/13) Blogging E.S. Pearson’s Statistical Philosophy

(8/15) A. Spanos: Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics

(8/17) Gandenberger: How to Do Philosophy That Matters (guest post)

(8/21) Blog contents: July, 2013

(8/22) PhilStock: Flash Freeze

(8/22) A critical look at “critical thinking”: deduction and induction

(8/28) Is being lonely unnatural for slim particles? A statistical argument

(8/31) Overheard at the comedy hour at the Bayesian retreat-2 years on
significance tests saw off their own limbs-comedy

September 2013

(9/2) Is Bayesian Inference a Religion?

(9/3) Gelman’s response to my comment on Jaynes

(9/5) Stephen Senn: Open Season (guest post)

(9/7) First blog: “Did you hear the one about the frequentist…”? and “Frequentists in Exile”

(9/10) Peircean Induction and the Error-Correcting Thesis (Part I)
C. S . Peirce 10 Sept. 1939

(9/10) (Part 2) Peircean Induction and the Error-Correcting Thesis

(9/12) (Part 3) Peircean Induction and the Error-Correcting Thesis

(9/14) “When Bayesian Inference Shatters” Owhadi, Scovel, and Sullivan (guest post)
when Bayesian inference shatters.

(9/18) PhilStock: Bad news is good news on Wall St.

(9/18) How to hire a fraudster chauffeur

(9/22) Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”

(9/23) Barnard’s Birthday: background, likelihood principle, intentions

(9/24) Gelman est efffectivement une erreur statistician

(9/26) Blog Contents: August 2013

(9/29) Highly probable vs highly probed: Bayesian/ error statistical differences

October 2013

(10/3) Will the Real Junk Science Please Stand Up? (critical thinking)
J. Hosiasson

(10/5) Was Janina Hosiasson pulling Harold Jeffreys’ leg?

(10/9) Bad statistics: crime or free speech (II)? Harkonen update: Phil Stat / Law /Stock

(10/12) Sir David Cox: a comment on the post, “Was Hosiasson pulling Jeffreys’ leg?”
Sir David Cox

(10/19) Blog Contents: September 2013

(10/19) Bayesian Confirmation Philosophy and the Tacking Paradox (iv)*

(10/25) Bayesian confirmation theory: example from last post…

(10/26) Comedy hour at the Bayesian (epistemology) retreat: highly probable vs highly probed (vs what ?)

(10/31) WHIPPING BOYS AND WITCH HUNTERS

November 2013

(11/2) Oxford Gaol: Statistical Bogeymen

(11/4) Forthcoming paper on the strong likelihood principle
Mayo Birnbaum Proof

(11/9) Null Effects and Replication

(11/9) Beware of questionable front page articles warning you to beware of questionable front page articles (iii)

(11/13) T. Kepler: “Trouble with ‘Trouble at the Lab’?” (guest post)
Kepler

(11/16) PhilStock: No-pain bull

(11/16) S. Stanley Young: More Trouble with ‘Trouble in the Lab’ (Guest post)
Stan Young

(11/18) Lucien Le Cam: “The Bayesians hold the Magic”

(11/20) Erich Lehmann: Statistician and Poet

(11/23) Probability that it is a statistical fluke [i]

(11/27) “The probability that it be a statistical fluke” [iia]

(11/30) Saturday night comedy at the “Bayesian Boy” diary (rejected post*)

December 2013

(12/3) Stephen Senn: Dawid’s Selection Paradox (guest post)
S. Senn

(12/7) FDA’s New Pharmacovigilance

(12/9) Why ecologists might want to read more philosophy of science (UPDATED)

(12/11) Blog Contents for Oct and Nov 2013

(12/14) The error statistician has a complex, messy, subtle, ingenious piece-meal approach

(12/15) Surprising Facts about Surprising Facts

(12/19) A. Spanos lecture on “Frequentist Hypothesis Testing”
Spanos

(12/24) U-Phil: Deconstructions [of J. Berger]: Irony & Bad Faith 3

(12/25) “Bad Arguments” (a book by Ali Almossawi)

(12/26) Mascots of Bayesneon statistics (rejected post)

(12/27) Deconstructing Larry Wasserman

(12/28) More on deconstructing Larry Wasserman (Aris Spanos)

(12/28) Wasserman on Wasserman: Update! December 28, 2013

(12/31) Midnight With Birnbaum (Happy New Year)

January 2014

(1/2) Winner of the December 2013 Palindrome Book Contest (Rejected Post)

(1/3) Error Statistics Philosophy: 2013

(1/4) Your 2014 wishing well. …

(1/7) “Philosophy of Statistical Inference and Modeling” New Course: Spring 2014: Mayo and Spanos: (Virginia Tech)

(1/11) Two Severities? (PhilSci and PhilStat)

(1/14) Statistical Science meets Philosophy of Science: blog beginnings
Comedy Hour

(1/16) Objective/subjective, dirty hands and all that: Gelman/Wasserman blogolog (ii)

(1/18) Sir Harold Jeffreys’ (tail area) one-liner: Sat night comedy [draft ii]

(1/22) Phil6334: “Philosophy of Statistical Inference and Modeling” New Course: Spring 2014: Mayo and Spanos (Virginia Tech) UPDATE: JAN 21

(1/24) Phil 6334: Slides from Day #1: Four Waves in Philosophy of Statistics

(1/25) U-Phil (Phil 6334) How should “prior information” enter in statistical inference?

(1/27) Winner of the January 2014 palindrome contest (rejected post)

(1/29) BOSTON COLLOQUIUM FOR PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE: Revisiting the Foundations of Statistics
Revisiting the Foundations of Statistics

(1/31) Phil 6334: Day #2 Slides

February 2014

(2/1) Comedy hour at the Bayesian (epistemology) retreat: highly probable vs highly probed (vs B-boosts)

(2/3) PhilStock: Bad news is bad news on Wall St. (rejected post)

(2/5) “Probabilism as an Obstacle to Statistical Fraud-Busting” (draft iii)

(2/9) Phil6334: Day #3: Feb 6, 2014

(2/10) Is it true that all epistemic principles can only be defended circularly? A Popperian puzzle
Popper

(2/12) Phil6334: Popper self-test
Statistical Snow Sculpture

(2/13) Phil 6334 Statistical Snow Sculpture

(2/14) January Blog Table of Contents

(2/15) Fisher and Neyman after anger management?

(2/17) R. A. Fisher: how an outsider revolutionized statistics

(2/18) Aris Spanos: The Enduring Legacy of R. A. Fisher

(2/20) R.A. Fisher: ‘Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood’

(2/21) STEPHEN SENN: Fisher’s alternative to the alternative

(2/22) Sir Harold Jeffreys’ (tail-area) one-liner: Sat night comedy [draft ii]
Comedy Hour

(2/24) Phil6334: February 20, 2014 (Spanos): Day #5

(2/26) Winner of the February 2014 palindrome contest (rejected post)

(2/26) Phil6334: Feb 24, 2014: Induction, Popper and pseudoscience (Day #4)

March 2014

C. Shalizi

(3/1) Cosma Shalizi gets tenure (at last!) (metastat announcement)

(3/2) Significance tests and frequentist principles of evidence: Phil6334 Day #6

(3/3) Capitalizing on Chance (ii)

(3/4) Power, power everywhere–(it) may not be what you think! [illustration]

(3/8) Msc kvetch: You are fully dressed (even under you clothes)?

(3/8) Fallacy of Rejection and the Fallacy of Nouvelle Cuisine

(3/11) Phil6334 Day #7: Selection effects, the Higgs and 5 sigma, Power

(3/12) Get empowered to detect power howlers

(3/15) New SEV calculator (guest app: Durvasula)

(3/17) Stephen Senn: “Delta Force: To what extent is clinical relevance relevant?” (Guest Post)
S. Senn

(3/19) Power taboos: Statue of Liberty, Senn, Neyman, Carnap, Severity

(3/22) Fallacies of statistics & statistics journalism, and how to avoid them: Summary & Slides Day #8 (Phil 6334)

(3/25) The Unexpected Way Philosophy Majors Are Changing The World Of Business
J. Byrd

(3/26) Phil6334:Misspecification Testing: Ordering From A Full Diagnostic Menu (part 1)

(3/28) Severe osteometric probing of skeletal remains: John Byrd

(3/29) Winner of the March 2014 palindrome contest (rejected post)

(3/30) Phil6334: March 26, philosophy of misspecification testing (Day #9 slides)

April 2014

(4/1) Skeptical and enthusiastic Bayesian priors for beliefs about insane asylum renovations at Dept of Homeland Security: I’m skeptical and unenthusiastic

(4/3) Self-referential blogpost (conditionally accepted*)
I. J. Good

(4/5) Who is allowed to cheat? I.J. Good and that after dinner comedy hour. . ..
Richard Gill

(4/6) Phil6334: Duhem’s Problem, highly probable vs highly probed; Day #9 Slides

(4/8) “Out Damned Pseudoscience: Non-significant results are the new ‘Significant’ results!” (update)

(4/12) “Murder or Coincidence?” Statistical Error in Court: Richard Gill (TEDx video)
Neyman April 16, 1894 – August 5, 1981

(4/14) Phil6334: Notes on Bayesian Inference: Day #11 Slides

(4/16) A. Spanos: Jerzy Neyman and his Enduring Legacy

(4/17) Duality: Confidence intervals and the severity of tests

(4/19) Getting Credit (or blame) for Something You Didn’t Do (BP oil spill)

(4/21) Phil 6334: Foundations of statistics and its consequences: Day#12

(4/23) Phil 6334 Visitor: S. Stanley Young, “Statistics and Scientific Integrity”
Stan Young

(4/26) Reliability and Reproducibility: Fraudulent p-values through multiple testing (and other biases): S. Stanley Young (Phil 6334: Day #13)

(4/30) Able Stats Elba: 3 Palindrome nominees for April! (rejected post)

May 2014

(5/1) Putting the brakes on the breakthrough: An informal look at the
breaking through

argument for the Likelihood Principle

(5/3) You can only become coherent by ‘converting’ non-Bayesianly

(5/6) Winner of April Palindrome contest: Lori Wike

(5/7) A. Spanos: Talking back to the critics using error statistics (Phil6334)
fraud buster

A. Spanos

(5/10) Who ya gonna call for statistical Fraudbusting? R.A. Fisher, P-values, and error statistics (again)

(5/15) Scientism and Statisticism: a conference* (i)

(5/17) Deconstructing Andrew Gelman: “A Bayesian wants everybody else to be a non-Bayesian.”

(5/20) The Science Wars & the Statistics Wars: More from the Scientism workshop
Birnbaum

(5/25) Blog Table of Contents: March and April 2014

(5/27) Allan Birnbaum, Philosophical Error Statistician: 27 May 1923 – 1 July 1976

(5/31) What have we learned from the Anil Potti training and test data frameworks? Part 1 (draft 2)
Potti training

June 2014

(6/5) Stephen Senn: Blood Simple? The complicated and controversial world of bioequivalence (guest post)

(6/9) “The medical press must become irrelevant to publication of clinical trials.”

(6/11) A. Spanos: “Recurring controversies about P values and confidence intervals revisited”

(6/14) “Statistical Science and Philosophy of Science: where should they meet?”
Sir David Hendry

(6/21) Big Bayes Stories? (draft ii)

(6/25) Blog Contents: May 2014

(6/28) Sir David Hendry Gets Lifetime Achievement Award

(6/30) Some ironies in the ‘replication crisis’ in social psychology (4^th and final installment)

July 2014

(7/7) Winner of June Palindrome Contest: Lori Wike

(7/8) Higgs Discovery 2 years on (1: “Is particle physics bad science?”)

(7/10) Higgs Discovery 2 years on (2: Higgs analysis and statistical flukes)

(7/14) “P-values overstate the evidence against the null”: legit or fallacious? (revised)
R. Berger

(7/23) Continued:”P-values overstate the evidence against the null”: legit or fallacious?

(7/26) S. Senn: “Responder despondency: myths of personalized medicine” (Guest Post)

(7/31) Roger Berger on Stephen Senn’s “Blood Simple” with a response by Senn (Guest Posts)

August 2014

(08/03) Blogging Boston JSM2014?

(08/05) Neyman, Power, and Severity

(08/06) What did Nate Silver just say? Blogging the JSM 2013
N. Silver

(08/09) Winner of July Palindrome: Manan Shah
E.S. Pearson on the gate,
D. Mayo sketch

(08/09) Blog Contents: June and July 2014

(08/11) Egon Pearson’s Heresy

(08/17) Are P Values Error Probabilities? Or, “It’s the methods, stupid!” (2^nd install)

(08/23) Has Philosophical Superficiality Harmed Science?

(08/29) BREAKING THE LAW! (of likelihood): to keep their fit measures in line (A), (B 2^nd)

September 2014

(9/30) Letter from George (Barnard)
G. Barnard

(9/27) Should a “Fictionfactory” peepshow be barred from a festival on “Truth and Reality”? Diederik Stapel says no (rejected post)

(9/23) G.A. Barnard: The Bayesian “catch-all” factor: probability vs likelihood

(9/21) Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”

(9/18) Uncle Sam wants YOU to help with scientific reproducibility!

(9/15) A crucial missing piece in the Pistorius trial? (2): my answer (Rejected Post)

(9/12) “The Supernal Powers Withhold Their Hands And Let Me Alone”: C.S. Peirce

(9/6) Statistical Science: The Likelihood Principle issue is out…!
The Likelihood Issue is out!

(9/4) All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy Contents-3 years on

(9/3) 3 in blog years: Sept 3 is 3rd anniversary of errorstatistics.com

October 2014

10/01 Oy Faye! What are the odds of not conflating simple conditional probability and likelihood with Bayesian success stories?
Faye Flam

10/05 Diederik Stapel hired to teach “social philosophy” because students got tired of success stories… or something (rejected post)

10/07 A (Jan 14, 2014) interview with Sir David Cox by “Statistics Views”

10/10 BREAKING THE (Royall) LAW! (of likelihood) (C)

10/14 Gelman recognizes his error-statistical (Bayesian) foundations
PhilStat/Law

10/18 PhilStat/Law: Nathan Schachtman: Acknowledging Multiple Comparisons in Statistical Analysis: Courts Can and Must

10/22 September 2014: Blog Contents

10/25 3 YEARS AGO: MONTHLY MEMORY LANE

10/26 To Quarantine or not to Quarantine?: Science & Policy in the time of Ebola

10/31 Oxford Gaol: Statistical Bogeymen

November 2014

Allan Franklin

11/01 Philosophy of Science Assoc. (PSA) symposium on Philosophy of Statistics in the Higgs Experiments “How Many Sigmas to Discovery?”

11/09 “Statistical Flukes, the Higgs Discovery, and 5 Sigma” at the PSA
Robert Cousins

11/11 The Amazing Randi’s Million Dollar Challenge

11/12 A biased report of the probability of a statistical fluke: Is it cheating?

11/15 Why the Law of Likelihood is bankrupt–as an account of evidence
Kent Staley

D. Mayo

11/18 Lucien Le Cam: “The Bayesians Hold the Magic”

11/20 Erich Lehmann: Statistician and Poet

11/22 Msc Kvetch: “You are a Medical Statistic”,
Juliet Shafer, Erich Lehmann, D. Mayo

or “How Medical Care Is Being Corrupted”

11/25 How likelihoodists exaggerate evidence from statistical tests

11/30 3 YEARS AGO: MONTHLY (Nov.) MEMORY LANE

December 2014

12/02 My Rutgers Seminar: tomorrow, December 3, on philosophy of statistics

12/04 “Probing with Severity: Beyond Bayesian Probabilism and Frequentist Performance” (Dec 3 Seminar slides)

12/06 How power morcellators inadvertently spread uterine cancer

12/11 Msc. Kvetch: What does it mean for a battle to be “lost by the media”?

12/13 S. Stanley Young: Are there mortality co-benefits to the Clean Power Plan? It depends. (Guest Post)

12/17 Announcing Kent Staley’s new book, An Introduction to the Philosophy of Science (CUP)
Staley book

12/21 Derailment: Faking Science: A true story of academic fraud, by Diederik Stapel (translated into English)

12/23 All I want for Chrismukkah is that critics & “reformers” quit howlers of
Chrismukkah

testing (after 3 yrs of blogging)! So here’s Aris Spanos “Talking Back!”

12/26 3 YEARS AGO: MONTHLY (Dec.) MEMORY LANE
Midnight w/ Birnbaum

12/29 To raise the power of a test is to lower (not raise) the “hurdle” for rejecting the null (Ziliac and McCloskey 3 years on)

12/31 Midnight With Birnbaum (Happy New Year)

January 2015

01/02 Blog Contents: Oct.- Dec. 2014

01/03 No headache power (for Deirdre)
no-headache power

01/04 Significance Levels are Made a Whipping Boy on Climate Change Evidence: Is .05 Too Strict? (Schachtman on Oreskes)

01/07 “When Bayesian Inference Shatters” Owhadi, Scovel, and Sullivan (reblog)

01/08 On the Brittleness of Bayesian Inference–An Update: Owhadi and Scovel (guest post)
when…inference shatters

01/12 “Only those samples which fit the model best in cross validation were included” (whistleblower) “I suspect that we likely disagree with what constitutes validation” (Potti and Nevins)

01/16 Winners of the December 2014 Palindrome Contest: TWO!

01/18 Power Analysis and Non-Replicability: If bad statistics is prevalent in your field, does it follow you can’t be guilty of scientific fraud?

01/21 Some statistical dirty laundry
For entertainment only

01/24 What do these share in common: m&ms, limbo stick, ovulation, Dale Carnegie? Sat night potpourri

01/26 Trial on Anil Potti’s (clinical) Trial Scandal Postponed Because Lawyers Get the Sniffles (updated)

01/27 3 YEARS AGO: (JANUARY 2012) MEMORY LANE

01/31 Saturday Night Brainstorming and Task Forces: (4th draft)
NHST task force 3

February 2015

02/05 Stephen Senn: Is Pooling Fooling? (Guest Post)

02/10 What’s wrong with taking (1 – β)/α, as a likelihood ratio comparing H0 and H1?

02/13 Induction, Popper and Pseudoscience

02/16 Continuing the discussion on truncation, Bayesian convergence and testing of priors

02/16 R. A. Fisher: ‘Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood’: Just before breaking up (with N-P)

02/17 R. A. Fisher: How an Outsider Revolutionized Statistics (Aris Spanos)
Jeffreys ‘one-liner’

02/19 Stephen Senn: Fisher’s Alternative to the Alternative

02/21 Sir Harold Jeffreys’ (tail area) one-liner: Saturday night comedy (b)

02/25 3 YEARS AGO: (FEBRUARY 2012) MEMORY LANE
Obstacles to Statistical Fraud-Busting

02/27 Big Data is the New Phrenology?

March 2015

03/01 “Probabilism as an Obstacle to Statistical Fraud-Busting”

03/05 A puzzle about the latest test ban (or ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’)

03/12 All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 3.5 years on

03/16 Stephen Senn: The pathetic P-value (Guest Post)

03/21 Objectivity in Statistics: “Arguments From Discretion and 3 Reactions”

03/24 3 YEARS AGO (MARCH 2012): MEMORY LANE

03/28 Your (very own) personalized genomic prediction varies depending on who else was around?

April 2015

04/01 Are scientists really ready for ‘retraction offsets’ to advance ‘aggregate reproducibility’? (let alone ‘precautionary withdrawals’)
Richard Morey

APS 2015

04/04 Joan Clarke, Turing, I.J. Good, and “that after-dinner comedy hour…”

04/08 Heads I win, tails you lose? Meehl and many Popperians get this wrong (about severe tests)!

04/13 Philosophy of Statistics Comes to the Big Apple! APS 2015 Annual Convention — NYC

04/16 A. Spanos: Jerzy Neyman and his Enduring Legacy

04/18 Neyman: Distinguishing tests of statistical hypotheses and tests of significance might have been a lapse of someone’s pen
Andrew Gelman

D. Mayo

04/22 NEYMAN: “Note on an Article by Sir Ronald Fisher” (3 uses for power, Fisher’s fiducial argument)

04/24 “Statistical Concepts in Their Relation to Reality” by E.S. Pearson

04/27 3 YEARS AGO (APRIL 2012): MEMORY LANE

04/30 96% Error in “Expert” Testimony Based on Probability of Hair Matches: It’s all Junk!

May 2015

05/04 Spurious Correlations: Death by getting tangled in bedsheets and the consumption of cheese!
P-value deformation

(Aris Spanos)

05/08 What really defies common sense (Msc kvetch on rejected posts)

05/09 Stephen Senn: Double Jeopardy?: Judge Jeffreys Upholds the Law (sequel to the pathetic P-value)

05/16 “Error statistical modeling and inference: Where methodology meets ontology” A. Spanos and D. Mayo
Mayo & Spanos

05/19 Workshop on Replication in the Sciences: Society for Philosophy and Psychology: (2nd part of double header)
Stephen Senn

05/24 From our “Philosophy of Statistics” session: APS 2015 convention

05/27 “Intentions” is the new code word for “error probabilities”: Allan Birnbaum’s Birthday

05/30 3 YEARS AGO (MAY 2012): Saturday Night Memory Lane

June 2015

06/04 What Would Replication Research Under an Error Statistical Philosophy Be?

06/09 “Fraudulent until proved innocent: Is this really the new “Bayesian Forensics”? (rejected post)
Diederik Stapel

6/11 Evidence can only strengthen a prior belief in low data veracity, N. Liberman & M. Denzler: “Response”

06/14 Some statistical dirty laundry: The Tilberg (Stapel) Report on “Flawed Science”

06/18 Can You change Your Bayesian prior? (ii)

06/25 3 YEARS AGO (JUNE 2012): MEMORY LANE

06/30 Stapel’s Fix for Science? Admit the story you want to tell and how you “fixed” the statistics to support it!

Larry Laudan

July 2015

07/03 Larry Laudan: “When the ‘Not-Guilty’ Falsely Pass for Innocent”, the Frequency of False Acquittals (guest post)

07/09 Winner of the June Palindrome contest: Lori Wike

07/11 Higgs discovery three years on (Higgs analysis and statistical flukes)

07/14 Spot the power howler: α = ß?

07/17 “Statistical Significance” According to the U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services (ii)
Stephen Senn

07/22 3 YEARS AGO (JULY 2012): MEMORY LANE

07/24 Stephen Senn: Randomization, ratios and rationality: rescuing the randomized clinical trial from its critics

07/29 Telling What’s True About Power, if practicing within the error-statistical tribe

August 2015

08/05 Neyman: Distinguishing tests of statistical hypotheses and tests of significance might have been a lapse of someone’s pen

08/08 Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”
Aris Spanos

08/11 A. Spanos: Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics

08/14 Performance or Probativeness? E.S. Pearson’s Statistical Philosophy

08/15 Severity in a Likelihood Text by Charles Rohde

08/19 Statistics, the Spooky Science

08/20 How to avoid making mountains out of molehills, using power/severity

08/24 3 YEARS AGO (AUGUST 2012): MEMORY LANE

08/31 The Paradox of Replication, and the vindication of the P-value (but she can go deeper) 9/2/15 update (ii)
Molehills-Mountains

September 2015

09/05 All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 4 years on

09/11 Peircean Induction and the Error-Correcting Thesis (Part I)
C.S. Peirce:10 Sept,1839-
19 April,1914

09/12 (Part 2) Peircean Induction and the Error-Correcting Thesis

09/14 (Part 3) Peircean Induction and the Error-Correcting Thesis

09/16 Popper on pseudoscience: a comment on Pigliucci (i), (ii) 9/18, (iii) 9/20

09/22 Statistical rivulets: Who wrote this?

09/23 George Barnard: 100th birthday: “We need more complexity” (and coherence) in statistical education
George Barnard

09/26 G.A. Barnard: The “catch-all” factor: probability vs likelihood

09/28 3 YEARS AGO (SEPTEMBER 2012): MEMORY LANE

09/30 Oy Faye! What are the odds of not conflating simple conditional probability and likelihood with Bayesian success stories?

Scientist sees squirrel

October 2015

10/04 Will the Real Junk Science Please Stand Up?

10/07 In defense of statistical recipes, but with enriched ingredients (scientist sees squirrel)

10/10 P-value madness: A puzzle about the latest test ban (or ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’)

10/14 “Frequentist Accuracy of Bayesian Estimates” (Efron Webinar announcement)
reforms without philosophy…

10/18 Statistical “reforms” without philosophy are blind (v update)

10/24 3 YEARS AGO (OCTOBER 2012): MEMORY LANE

10/31 WHIPPING BOYS AND WITCH HUNTERS (ii)

Steven McKinney

November 201412/20

11/05 S. McKinney: On Efron’s “Frequentist Accuracy of Bayesian Estimates” (Guest Post)

11/09 Findings of the Office of Research Misconduct on the Duke U (Potti/Nevins) cancer trial fraud: No one is punished but the patients

11/13 “What does it say about our national commitment to research integrity?”

11/20 Erich Lehmann: Neyman-Pearson & Fisher on P-values
Juliet Shafer, Erich Lehmann, D. May

11/25 3 YEARS AGO (NOVEMBER 2012): MEMORY LANE

11/28 Return to the Comedy Hour: P-values vs posterior probabilities (1)

December 2015

12/05 Beware of questionable front page articles warning you to beware of questionable front page articles (2)
Stephen Senn

12/12 Stephen Senn: The pathetic P-value (Guest Post) [3]

12/17 Gelman on ‘Gathering of philosophers and physicists unaware of modern reconciliation of Bayes and Popper’
Andrew Gelman

12/20 Stephen Senn: Double Jeopardy?: Judge Jeffreys Upholds the Law (sequel to the pathetic P-value)[4]

12/26 3 YEARS AGO (DECEMBER 2012): MEMORY LANE

12/31 Midnight With Birnbaum (Happy New Year)

January 2016

01/02 Sir Harold Jeffreys’ (tail area) one-liner: Sat night comedy [draft ii]

01/08 Preregistration Challenge: My email exchange

01/10 Winner of December Palindrome: Mike Jacovides
Houman Owhadi

Clint Scovel

01/11 “On the Brittleness of Bayesian Inference,” Owhadi, Scovel, and Sullivan (PUBLISHED)

01/17 “P-values overstate the evidence against the null”: legit or fallacious?

01/19 High error rates in discussions of error rates (1/21/16 update)

01/24 Hocus pocus! Adopt a magician’s stance, if you want to reveal statistical sleights of hand

01/29 3 YEARS AGO (JANUARY 2013): MEMORY LANE

February 2016

02/03 Philosophy-laden meta-statistics: Is “technical activism” free of statistical philosophy? (ii)
N. Silver

02/12 Rubbing off, uncertainty, confidence, and Nate Silver

02/17 Can’t Take the Fiducial Out of Fisher (if you want to understand the N-P performance philosophy) [i]
Fisher repairing mousetraps

02/20 Deconstructing the Fisher-Neyman conflict wearing fiducial glasses (continued)

02/27 3 YEARS AGO (FEBRUARY 2013): MEMORY LANE

02/29 Statistical Challenges in Assessing and Fostering the Reproducibility of Scientific Results

March 2016

03/04 Repligate Returns (or, the non-significance of non-significant results, are the new significant results)
ASA p-value commentary

03/07 Don’t throw out the error control baby with the bad statistics bathwater

03/12: “A small p-value indicates it’s improbable that the results 3are due to chance alone” –fallacious or not? (more on the ASA p-value doc)

03/19: Your chance to continue the “due to chance” discussion in roomier quarters
Aris Spanos

03/22: All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 4.5 years on

03/26: A. Spanos: Talking back to the critics using error statistics

April 2016

04/01: Er, about those “other statistical approaches”: Hold off until a balanced critique is in?

04/06: I’m speaking at Univ of Minnesota on Friday
Jerzy Neyman

04/09: Winner of March 2016 Palindrome: Manan Shah

04/11: When the rejection ratio (1 – β)/α turns evidence on its head, for those practicing in an error-statistical tribe (ii)

04/16: Jerzy Neyman and “Les Miserables Citations” (statistical theater in honor of his birthday)

04/23: 3 YEARS AGO (MARCH & APRIL 2013): MEMORY LANE

04/30: Yes, these were not (entirely) real–my five April pranks

May 2016

05/02: Philosophy & Physical Computing Graduate Workshop at VT

05/04: My Popper Talk at LSE: The Statistical Replication Crisis: Paradoxes and Scapegoats
Popper Talk 2016

05/09: Some bloglinks for my LSE talk tomorrow: “The Statistical Replication Crisis: Paradoxes and Scapegoats”

05/10: My Slides: “The Statistical Replication Crisis: Paradoxes and Scapegoats”
Frequentstein

05/12: Excerpts from S. Senn’s Letter on “Replication, p-values and Evidence”

05/14: Fallacies of Rejection, Nouvelle Cuisine, and assorted New Monsters

05/22: Frequentstein: What’s wrong with (1 – β)/α as a measure of evidence against the null? (ii)

05/27: Allan Birnbaum: Foundations of Probability and Statistics (27 May 1923 – 1 July 1976)

05/30: 3 YEARS AGO (MAY 2013): MEMORY LANE

June 2016

06/02: “A sense of security regarding the future of statistical science…” Anon review of Error and Inference
So you banned p-values…

06/05: Winner of May 2016 Palindrome Contest: Curtis Williams

06/08: “So you banned p-values, how’s that working out for you?” D. Lakens exposes the consequences of a puzzling “ban” on statistical inference

06/15: “Using PhilStat to Make Progress in the Replication Crisis in Psych” at Society for PhilSci in Practice (SPSP)

06/19: Mayo & Parker “Using PhilStat to Make Progress in the Replication Crisis in Psych” SPSP Slides
D. Mayo & C. Parker SPSP 2016

06/22: Some statistical dirty laundry: have the stains become permanent?

06/25: What do these share in common: m&ms, limbo stick, ovulation, Dale Carnegie? Are we lowering the bar?

06/29: Richard Gill: “Integrity or fraud… or just questionable research practices?” (Is Gill too easy on them?)
Allan Birnbaum

July 2016

07/01: A. Birnbaum: Statistical Methods in Scientific Inference (May 27, 1923 – July 1, 1976)

07/06: 3 YEARS AGO (JUNE 2013): MEMORY LANE
Sir Karl Popper

07/11: Philosophy and History of Science Announcements

07/21: “Nonsignificance Plus High Power Does Not Imply Support for the Null Over the Alternative.”

07/28: For Popper’s Birthday: A little Popper self-test & reading from Conjectures and Refutations

07/30: 3 YEARS AGO (JULY 2013): MEMORY LANE
Stephen Senn

August 2016

08/02: S. Senn: “Painful dichotomies” (Guest Post)

08/09: If you think it’s a scandal to be without statistical falsification, you will need statistical Ju

08/16: Performance of Probativeness? E.S. Pearson’s Statistical Philosophy

(08/18) History of statistics sleuths out there? “Ideas came into my head as I sat on a gate overlooking an experimental blackcurrant plot”–No wait, it was apples, probably
Egon Pearson on a Gate (by D. Mayo)

(08/21) Larry Laudan: “‘Not Guilty’: The Misleading Verdict” (Guest Post)
Larry Laudan

(08/28) TragiComedy hour: P-values vs posterior probabilities vs diagnostic error rates

September 2016

09/03: All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 5 years on

09/09: Peircean Induction and the Error-Correcting Thesis (Part I)

09/18: The Myth of ‘The Myth of Objectivity” (i)

09/23: G. A. Barnard’s 101st Birthday: The Bayesian “catch-all” factor: probability vs likelihood

09/28: Announcement: Scientific Misconduct and Scientific Expertise

October 2016

10/01: A new front in the statistics wars? Peaceful negotiation in the face of so-called ‘methodological terrorism’
Sir David Cox

10/07: For Statistical Transparency: Reveal Multiplicity and/or Just Falsify the Test (Remark on Gelman and Colleagues)

10/15: 3 YEARS AGO (OCTOBER 2013): MEMORY LANE

10/20: International Prize in Statistics Awarded to Sir David Cox

10/22: Formal Epistemology Workshop 2017: call for papers

10/26: Philosophy of Science Association 2016 Symposium

November 2016

11/01: I’ll be speaking to a biomedical group at Emory University, Nov 3

11/08: Gigerenzer at the PSA: “How Fisher, Neyman-Pearson, & Bayes Were Transformed into the Null Ritual”: Comments and Queries (ii)
Gerd Gigerenzer

11/12: Taking errors seriously in forecasting elections

11/19: Glymour at the PSA: “Exploratory Research is More Reliable Than Confirmatory Research”
Clark Glymour

11/28: 3 YEARS AGO (NOVEMBER 2013): MEMORY LANE
Andrew Gelman

December 2016

12/03: Gelman at the PSA: “Confirmationist and Falsificationist Paradigms in Statistical Practice”: Comments & Queries

12/11: “Tests of Statistical Significance Made Sound”: excerpts from B. Haig

12/19: Senn: “Placebos: it’s not only the patients that are fooled” (Guest Post)

12/26: 3 YEARS AGO (DECEMBER 2013): MEMORY LANE

12/30: Szucs & Ioannidis Revive the Limb-Sawing Fallacy

12/31: Midnight With Birnbaum (Happy New Year 2016)

January 2017

01/07: BOSTON COLLOQUIUM FOR PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE: Understanding Reproducibility & Error Correction in Science

01/14: Winners of December Palindrome: Kyle Griffiths & Eileen Flanagan

01/19: The “P-values overstate the evidence against the null” fallacy

01/28: 3 YEARS AGO (JANUARY 2014): MEMORY LANE

Sir David Cox

February 2017

02/03: High error rates in discussions of error rates: no end in sight

02/07: Hocus pocus! Adopt a magician’s stance, if you want to reveal statistical sleights of hand

02/12: Cox’s (1958) weighing machine example
Aris Spanos

02/16: Winner of the January 2017 Palindrome contest: Cristiano Sabiu

02/17: R. A. Fisher: ‘Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood’
R. A. Fisher

02/19: Guest Blog: ARIS SPANOS: The Enduring Legacy of R. A. Fisher

02/20: R.A. Fisher: “Statistical methods and Scientific Induction”
Stephen Senn

02/22: Guest Blog: STEPHEN SENN: ‘Fisher’s alternative to the alternative’

02/26: R.A Fisher: “It should never be true, though it is still often said, that the conclusions are no more accurate than the data on which they are based”

02/28: 3 YEARS AGO (FEBRUARY 2014): MEMORY LANE

March 2017

03/08: The ASA Document on P-Values: One Year On

03/13: BOSTON COLLOQUIUM FOR PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE: Understanding Reproducibility & Error Correction in Science

03/26: Slides from the Boston Colloquium for Philosophy of Science: “Severe Testing: The Key to Error Correction”

April 2017

04/01: Er, about those other approaches, hold off until a balanced appraisal is in

04/03: Announcement: Columbia Workshop on Probability and Learning (April 8)
Neyman, drawn by Olga

04/09: 3 YEARS AGO (MARCH 2014): MEMORY LANE

04/15: If you’re seeing limb-sawing in P-value logic, you’re sawing off the limbs of reductio arguments

04/16: Spanos: Jerzy Neyman and his Enduring Legacy

04/17: Neyman: Distinguishing tests of statistical hypotheses and tests of significance might have been a lapse of someone’s pen

04/18: Jerzy Neyman and “Les Miserables Citations” (statistical theater in honor of his birthday)

04/21: The Fourth Bayesian, Fiducial and Frequentist Workshop (BFF4): Harvard U

04/23: Senn: “Automatic for the people? Not quite” (Guest post)

May 2017

05/02: “Fusion-Confusion?” My Discussion of Nancy Reid: “BFF Four- Are we Converging?”
Allan Birnbaum

05/08: How to tell what’s true about power if you’re practicing within the error-statistical tribe

05/15: 3 YEARS AGO (APRIL 2014): MEMORY LANE

05/23: Frequentstein’s Bride: What’s wrong with using (1 – β)/α as a measure of evidence against the null?

05/27: Allan Birnbaum: Foundations of Probability and Statistics (27 May 1923 – 1 July 1976)

June 2017

06/04: 3 YEARS AGO (May 2014): MEMORY LANE

06/12: Performance or Probativeness? E.S. Pearson’s Statistical Philosophy
E.S.Pearson on Gate

06/18: Can You Change Your Bayesian Prior? The one post whose comments (some of them) will appear in my new book

06/25: 3 YEARS AGO (JUNE 2014): MEMORY LANE

July 2017

07/01: Senn: Fishing for fakes with Fisher (Guest Post)

07/11: On the current state of play in the crisis of replication in psychology: some heresies

07/22: 3 YEARS AGO (JULY 2014): MEMORY LANE

07/25: “A megateam of reproducibility-minded scientists” look to lowering the p-value
blogging away…

August 2017

08/10: Thieme on the theme of lowering p-value thresholds (for Slate)

08/15/ Performance or Probativeness? E.S. Pearson’s Statistical Philosophy

08/17/ A. Spanos: Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics

08/25/ Egon Pearson’s Heresy

September 2017

09/02: All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 6 years on

09/10: Professor Roberta Millstein, Distinguished Marjorie Grene speaker September 15
C. S . Peirce 10 Sept. 1939

09/13: Peircean Induction and the Error-Correcting Thesis

09/17: Revisiting Popper’s Demarcation of Science 2017
Sir Karl Popper

09/23: George Barnard’s birthday: stopping rules, intentions

09/25: G. A. Barnard: The “catch-all” factor: probability vs likelihood

October 2017

10/05: New venues for the statistics wars

10/13: Statistical skepticism: How to use significance tests effectively: 7 challenges & how to respond to them

10/18: Deconstructing “A World Beyond P-values”

10/26: Going round and round again: a roundtable on reproducibility & lowering p-values

November 2017

11/04: Yoav Benjamini, “In the world beyond p < .05: When & How to use P < .0499…”
Erich Lehmann 20 November 1917 – 12 September 2009

11/17: 3 YEARS AGO (NOVEMBER 2014): MEMORY LANE

11/19: Erich Lehmann’s 100 Birthday: Neyman Pearson vs Fisher on P-values

11/27: The Conversion of Subjective Bayesian, Colin Howson, & the problem of old evidence (i)

December 2017

12/12: How to avoid making mountains out of molehills (using power and severity)

12/17: Why significance testers should reject the argument to “redefine statistical significance”, even if they want to lower the p-value*

12/27: 60 yrs of Cox’s (1958) weighing machine, & links to binge-read the Likelihood Principle

12/31: Midnight With Birnbaum (Happy New Year 2017)
Sir David Cox

January 2018

01/07: 3 YEARS AGO (DECEMBER 2014): MEMORY LANE
S. Senn

01/13: Senn: Being a statistician means never having to say you are certain (Guest Post)

01/23: 3 YEARS AGO (JANUARY 2015): MEMORY LANE

01/30: Senn: Evidence Based or Person-centred? A Statistical debate (Guest Post)

February 2018

02/10: 3 YEARS AGO (FEBRUARY 2015): MEMORY LANE

02/17: Happy Birthday R.A. Fisher: ‘Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood’
R. A. Fisher

02/18: Guest Blog: STEPHEN SENN: ‘Fisher’s alternative to the alternative’

02/19: A. Fisher: How an Outsider Revolutionized Statistics (Aris Spanos)

02/20: A. Fisher: “Statistical methods and Scientific Induction”

02/23: Can’t Take the Fiducial Out of Fisher (if you want to understand the N-P performance philosophy) [i]

02/24: Deconstructing the Fisher-Neyman conflict wearing fiducial glasses (continued)

March 2018

03/03: Cover/Itinerary of Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars
SIST 2018 cover

03/10: 3 YEARS AGO (MARCH 2015): MEMORY LANE

03/20: Pearl: Challenging the Hegemony of Randomized Controlled Trials: Comments on Deaton and Cartwright
Judea Pearl

03/26: February Palindrome Winner: Lucas Friesen

April 2018

04/01: New Warning: Proceed With Caution Until the “Alt Stat Approaches” are Evaluated

04/06: 3 YEARS AGO (APRIL 2015): MEMORY LANE

04/16: Neyman vs the ‘Inferential’ Probabilists continued (a)

May 2018

05/01: 3 YEARS AGO (May 2015): Monthly Memory Lane

05/13: Getting Up to Speed on Principles of Statistics
Allan Birnbaum

05/19: The Meaning of My Title: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars

05/27: “Intentions (in your head)” is the code word for “error probabilities (of a procedure)”: Allan Birnbaum’s Birthday

June 2018

06/04: Your data-driven claims must still be probed severely

06/23: Replication Crises and the Statistics Wars: Hidden Controversies

July 2018

07/04: Statistics and the Higgs Discovery: 5-6 yr Memory Lane
Higgs

07/11: Senn: Personal perils: are numbers needed to treat misleading us as to the scope for personalised medicine? (Guest Post)

07/21: 3 YEARS AGO (JULY 2015): MEMORY LANE

07/28: For Popper’s Birthday: Reading from Conjectures and Refutations (+ self-test)

August 2018

Sir David Cox

08/11: Egon Pearson’s Heresy

08/13: Spanos: Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics

08/17: 3 YEARS AGO (AUGUST 2015): MEMORY LANE

08/30: RSS 2018 – Significance Tests: Rethinking the Controversy

D. Mayo

Richard Morey

Aris Spanos

[i]Compiled by Jean Miller.