All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 5 years on

metablog old fashion typewriter

D.G. Mayo with her  blogging typewriter

Error Statistics Philosophy: Blog Contents (5 years) [i]
By: D. G. Mayo

Dear Reader: It’s hard to believe I’ve been blogging for five years (since Sept. 3, 2011)! A big celebration is taking place at the Elbar Room this evening. If you’re in the neighborhood, stop by for some Elba Grease.

Amazingly, this old typewriter not only still works; one of the whiz kids on Elba managed to bluetooth it to go directly from my typewriter onto the blog (I never got used to computer keyboards.) I still must travel to London to get replacement ribbons for this klunker.

Please peruse the offerings below, and take advantage of some of the super contributions and discussions by guest posters and readers! I don’t know how much longer I’ll continue blogging, but at least until the publication of my book on statistical inference. After that I plan to run conferences, workshops, and ashrams on PhilStat and PhilSci, and will invite readers to take part! Keep reading and commenting. Sincerely, D. Mayo

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September 2011

October 2011

November 2011

December 2011

January 2012

 

February 2012

17 February 1890--29 July 1962

17 February 1890–29 July 1962

March 2012

April 2012

May 2012

June 2012

July 2012

August 2012

September 2012

October 2012

November 2012

December 2012

January 2013

  • (1/2) Severity as a ‘Metastatistical’ Assessment
  • (1/4) Severity Calculator
  • (1/6) Guest post: Bad Pharma? (S. Senn)

    senn_video_img

    S. Senn

  • (1/9) RCTs, skeptics, and evidence-based policy
  • (1/10) James M. Buchanan
  • (1/11) Aris Spanos: James M. Buchanan: a scholar, teacher and friend
  • (1/12) Error Statistics Blog: Table of Contents
  • (1/15) Ontology & Methodology: Second call for Abstracts, Papers
  • (1/18) New Kvetch/PhilStock
  • (1/19) Saturday Night Brainstorming and Task Forces: (2013) TFSI on NHST

    NHST task force 2

    NHST task force 2

  • (1/22) New PhilStock
  • (1/23) P-values as posterior odds?
  • (1/26) Coming up: December U-Phil Contributions….
  • (1/27) U-Phil: S. Fletcher & N.Jinn
  • (1/30) U-Phil: J. A. Miller: Blogging the SLP

    Jean Miller

    Jean Miller

February 2013

  • (2/2) U-Phil: Ton o’ Bricks
  • (2/4) January Palindrome Winner
  • (2/6) Mark Chang (now) gets it right about circularity
  • (2/8) From Gelman’s blog: philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics
  • (2/9) New kvetch: Filly Fury
  • (2/10) U-PHIL: Gandenberger & Hennig: Blogging Birnbaum’s Proof

    A. Spanos

    A. Spanos

  • (2/11) U-Phil: Mayo’s response to Hennig and Gandenberger
  • (2/13) Statistics as a Counter to Heavyweights…who wrote this?
  • (2/16) Fisher and Neyman after anger management?
  • (2/17) R. A. Fisher: how an outsider revolutionized statistics
  • (2/20) Fisher: from ‘Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood’
  • (2/23) Stephen Senn: Also Smith and Jones
  • (2/26) PhilStock: DO < $70
  • (2/26) Statistically speaking…

March 2013

  • (3/1) capitalizing on chance

    Mayo at slots

    Mayo at slots

  • (3/4) Big Data or Pig Data?

    pig-bum-text

    pig data

  • (3/7) Stephen Senn: Casting Stones

    S. Senn

    S. Senn

  • (3/10) Blog Contents 2013 (Jan & Feb)
  • (3/11) S. Stanley Young: Scientific Integrity and Transparency

    Stan Young

    Stan Young

  • (3/13) Risk-Based Security: Knives and Axes
  • (3/15) Normal Deviate: Double Misunderstandings About p-values
  • (3/17) Update on Higgs data analysis: statistical flukes (1)
  • (3/21) Telling the public why the Higgs particle matters
  • (3/23) Is NASA suspending public education and outreach?
  • (3/27) Higgs analysis and statistical flukes (part 2)
  • (3/31) possible progress on the comedy hour circuit?

April 2013

  • (4/1) Flawed Science and Stapel: Priming for a Backlash?

    .Kent Staley

    .Kent Staley

  • (4/4) Guest Post. Kent Staley: On the Five Sigma Standard in Particle Physics

    I. J. Good

    I. J. Good

  • (4/6) Who is allowed to cheat? I.J. Good and that after dinner comedy hour….
  • (4/10) Statistical flukes (3): triggering the switch to throw out 99.99% of the data
  • (4/11) O & M Conference (upcoming) and a bit more on triggering from a participant…..

    Marilyn Monroe not walking past a Higgs boson and not making it decay, whatever philosophers might say.

    Marilyn Monroe not walking past a Higgs

  • (4/14) Does statistics have an ontology? Does it need one? (draft 2)
  • (4/19) Stephen Senn: When relevance is irrelevant
  • (4/22) Majority say no to inflight cell phone use, knives, toy bats, bow and arrows, according to survey
  • (4/23) PhilStock: Applectomy? (rejected post)
  • (4/25) Blog Contents 2013 (March)
  • (4/27) Getting Credit (or blame) for Something You Didn’t Do (BP oil spill, comedy hour)

    BP oil spill

    BP oil spill comedy hour

  • (4/29) What should philosophers of science do? (falsification, Higgs, statistics, Marilyn)

May 2013

  • (5/3) Schedule for Ontology & Methodology, 2013
  • (5/6) Professorships in Scandal?
  • (5/9) If it’s called the “The High Quality Research Act,” then ….
  • (5/13) ‘No-Shame’ Psychics Keep Their Predictions Vague: New Rejected post
  • (5/14) “A sense of security regarding the future of statistical science…” Anon review of Error and Inference
  • (5/18) Gandenberger on Ontology and Methodology (May 4) Conference: Virginia Tech

    onto-methodology

    onto-methodology

  • (5/19) Mayo: Meanderings on the Onto-Methodology Conference
  • (5/22) Mayo’s slides from the Onto-Meth conference
  • (5/24) Gelman sides w/ Neyman over Fisher in relation to a famous blow-up
  • (5/26) Schachtman: High, Higher, Highest Quality Research Act

    .Kent Staley

    .Kent Staley

  • (5/27) A.Birnbaum: Statistical Methods in Scientific Inference
  • (5/29) K. Staley: review of Error & Inference

June 2013

  • (6/1) Winner of May Palindrome Contest
  • (6/1) Some statistical dirty laundry
  • (6/5) Do CIs Avoid Fallacies of Tests? Reforming the Reformers (Reblog 5/17/12):

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  • (6/6) PhilStock: Topsy-Turvy Game
  • (6/6) Anything Tests Can do, CIs do Better; CIs Do Anything Better than Tests?* (reforming the reformers cont.)
  • (6/8) Richard Gill: “Integrity or fraud… or just questionable research practices?”

    Richard Gill

    Richard Gill

  • (6/11) Mayo: comment on the repressed memory research
  • (6/14) P-values can’t be trusted except when used to argue that p-values can’t be trusted!
  • (6/19) PhilStock: The Great Taper Caper
  • (6/19) Stanley Young: better p-values through randomization in microarrays

    Stan Young

    Stan Young

  • (6/22) What do these share in common: m&ms, limbo stick, ovulation, Dale Carnegie? Sat night potpourri
  • (6/26) Why I am not a “dualist” in the sense of Sander Greenland
  • (6/29) Palindrome “contest” contest
  • (6/30) Blog Contents: mid-year

July 2013

  • (7/3) Phil/Stat/Law: 50 Shades of gray between error and fraud
  • (7/6) Bad news bears: ‘Bayesian bear’ rejoinder–reblog mashup
  • (7/10) PhilStatLaw: Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence (3d ed) on Statistical Significance (Schachtman)
  • (7/11) Is Particle Physics Bad Science? (memory lane)
  • (7/13) Professor of Philosophy Resigns over Sexual Misconduct (rejected post)
  • (7/14) Stephen Senn: Indefinite irrelevance
  • (7/17) Phil/Stat/Law: What Bayesian prior should a jury have? (Schachtman)
  • (7/19) Msc Kvetch: A question on the Martin-Zimmerman case we do not hear
  • (7/20) Guest Post: Larry Laudan. Why Presuming Innocence is Not a Bayesian Prior

    Larry Laudan

    Larry Laudan

  • (7/23) Background Knowledge: Not to Quantify, But To Avoid Being Misled By, Subjective Beliefs
  • (7/26) New Version: On the Birnbaum argument for the SLP: Slides for JSM talk

August 2013

  • (8/1) Blogging (flogging?) the SLP: Response to Reply- Xi’an Robert
  • (8/5) At the JSM: 2013 International Year of Statistics
  • (8/6) What did Nate Silver just say? Blogging the JSM
  • (8/9) 11th bullet, multiple choice question, and last thoughts on the JSM
  • (8/11) E.S. Pearson: “Ideas came into my head as I sat on a gate overlooking an experimental blackcurrant plot”

    Egon Pearson on a Gate (by D. Mayo)

    Egon Pearson on a Gate (by D. Mayo)

  • (8/13) Blogging E.S. Pearson’s Statistical Philosophy
  • (8/15) A. Spanos: Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics
  • (8/17) Gandenberger: How to Do Philosophy That Matters (guest post)
  • (8/21) Blog contents: July, 2013
  • (8/22) PhilStock: Flash Freeze
  • (8/22) A critical look at “critical thinking”: deduction and induction
  • (8/28) Is being lonely unnatural for slim particles? A statistical argument
  • (8/31) Overheard at the comedy hour at the Bayesian retreat-2 years on

    images-2

    significance tests saw off their own limbs-comedy

September 2013

  • (9/2) Is Bayesian Inference a Religion?
  • (9/3) Gelman’s response to my comment on Jaynes
  • (9/5) Stephen Senn: Open Season (guest post)
  • (9/7) First blog: “Did you hear the one about the frequentist…”? and “Frequentists in Exile”
  • (9/10) Peircean Induction and the Error-Correcting Thesis (Part I)

    C. S . Peirce 10 Sept. 1939

    C. S . Peirce 10 Sept. 1939

  • (9/10) (Part 2) Peircean Induction and the Error-Correcting Thesis
  • (9/12) (Part 3) Peircean Induction and the Error-Correcting Thesis
  • (9/14) “When Bayesian Inference Shatters” Owhadi, Scovel, and Sullivan (guest post)

    images-9

    when Bayesian inference shatters.

  • (9/18) PhilStock: Bad news is good news on Wall St.
  • (9/18) How to hire a fraudster chauffeur
  • (9/22) Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”
  • (9/23) Barnard’s Birthday: background, likelihood principle, intentions
  • (9/24) Gelman est efffectivement une erreur statistician
  • (9/26) Blog Contents: August 2013
  • (9/29) Highly probable vs highly probed: Bayesian/ error statistical differences

October 2013

  • (10/3) Will the Real Junk Science Please Stand Up? (critical thinking)

    J. Hosiasson

    J. Hosiasson

  • (10/5) Was Janina Hosiasson pulling Harold Jeffreys’ leg?
  • (10/9) Bad statistics: crime or free speech (II)? Harkonen update: Phil Stat / Law /Stock
  • (10/12) Sir David Cox: a comment on the post, “Was Hosiasson pulling Jeffreys’ leg?”

    Sir David Cox

    Sir David Cox

  • (10/19) Blog Contents: September 2013
  • (10/19) Bayesian Confirmation Philosophy and the Tacking Paradox (iv)*
  • (10/25) Bayesian confirmation theory: example from last post…
  • (10/26) Comedy hour at the Bayesian (epistemology) retreat: highly probable vs highly probed (vs what ?)
  • (10/31) WHIPPING BOYS AND WITCH HUNTERS

November 2013

  • (11/2) Oxford Gaol: Statistical Bogeymen
  • (11/4) Forthcoming paper on the strong likelihood principle

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  • (11/9) Null Effects and Replication
  • (11/9) Beware of questionable front page articles warning you to beware of questionable front page articles (iii)
  • (11/13) T. Kepler: “Trouble with ‘Trouble at the Lab’?” (guest post)

    Kepler

    Kepler

  • (11/16) PhilStock: No-pain bull
  • (11/16) S. Stanley Young: More Trouble with ‘Trouble in the Lab’ (Guest post)

    Stan Young

    Stan Young

  • (11/18) Lucien Le Cam: “The Bayesians hold the Magic”
  • (11/20) Erich Lehmann: Statistician and Poet
  • (11/23) Probability that it is a statistical fluke [i]
  • (11/27) “The probability that it be a statistical fluke” [iia]
  • (11/30) Saturday night comedy at the “Bayesian Boy” diary (rejected post*)

December 2013

  • (12/3) Stephen Senn: Dawid’s Selection Paradox (guest post)

    S. Senn

    S. Senn

  • (12/7) FDA’s New Pharmacovigilance
  • (12/9) Why ecologists might want to read more philosophy of science (UPDATED)
  • (12/11) Blog Contents for Oct and Nov 2013
  • (12/14) The error statistician has a complex, messy, subtle, ingenious piece-meal approach
  • (12/15) Surprising Facts about Surprising Facts
  • (12/19) A. Spanos lecture on “Frequentist Hypothesis Testing”

    Spanos

    Spanos

  • (12/24) U-Phil: Deconstructions [of J. Berger]: Irony & Bad Faith 3
  • (12/25) “Bad Arguments” (a book by Ali Almossawi)
  • (12/26) Mascots of Bayesneon statistics (rejected post)
  • (12/27) Deconstructing Larry Wasserman
  • (12/28) More on deconstructing Larry Wasserman (Aris Spanos)
  • (12/28) Wasserman on Wasserman: Update! December 28, 2013
  • (12/31) Midnight With Birnbaum (Happy New Year)

January 2014

  • (1/2) Winner of the December 2013 Palindrome Book Contest (Rejected Post)
  • (1/3) Error Statistics Philosophy: 2013
  • (1/4) Your 2014 wishing well. …
  • (1/7) “Philosophy of Statistical Inference and Modeling” New Course: Spring 2014: Mayo and Spanos: (Virginia Tech)
  • (1/11) Two Severities? (PhilSci and PhilStat)
  • (1/14) Statistical Science meets Philosophy of Science: blog beginningscomedy hour Leno
  • (1/16) Objective/subjective, dirty hands and all that: Gelman/Wasserman blogolog (ii)
  • (1/18) Sir Harold Jeffreys’ (tail area) one-liner: Sat night comedy [draft ii]
  • (1/22) Phil6334: “Philosophy of Statistical Inference and Modeling” New Course: Spring 2014: Mayo and Spanos (Virginia Tech) UPDATE: JAN 21
  • (1/24) Phil 6334: Slides from Day #1: Four Waves in Philosophy of Statistics
  • (1/25) U-Phil (Phil 6334) How should “prior information” enter in statistical inference?
  • (1/27) Winner of the January 2014 palindrome contest (rejected post)
  • (1/29) BOSTON COLLOQUIUM FOR PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE: Revisiting the Foundations of Statistics

    Boston Colloquium 2013-2014

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  • (1/31) Phil 6334: Day #2 Slides

February 2014

  • (2/1) Comedy hour at the Bayesian (epistemology) retreat: highly probable vs highly probed (vs B-boosts)
  • (2/3) PhilStock: Bad news is bad news on Wall St. (rejected post)
  • (2/5) “Probabilism as an Obstacle to Statistical Fraud-Busting” (draft iii)
  • (2/9) Phil6334: Day #3: Feb 6, 2014
  • (2/10) Is it true that all epistemic principles can only be defended circularly? A Popperian puzzle

    468px-Karl_Popper

    Popper

  • (2/12) Phil6334: Popper self-test

    Statistical Snow Sculpture

    Statistical Snow Sculpture

  • (2/13) Phil 6334 Statistical Snow Sculpture
  • (2/14) January Blog Table of Contents
  • (2/15) Fisher and Neyman after anger management?
  • (2/17) R. A. Fisher: how an outsider revolutionized statistics
  • (2/18) Aris Spanos: The Enduring Legacy of R. A. Fisher
  • (2/20) R.A. Fisher: ‘Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood’
  • (2/21) STEPHEN SENN: Fisher’s alternative to the alternative
  • (2/22) Sir Harold Jeffreys’ (tail-area) one-liner: Sat night comedy [draft ii]

    Comedy Hour

    Comedy Hour

  • (2/24) Phil6334: February 20, 2014 (Spanos): Day #5
  • (2/26) Winner of the February 2014 palindrome contest (rejected post)
  • (2/26) Phil6334: Feb 24, 2014: Induction, Popper and pseudoscience (Day #4)

March 2014

C. Shalizi

C. Shalizi

  • (3/1) Cosma Shalizi gets tenure (at last!) (metastat announcement)
  • (3/2) Significance tests and frequentist principles of evidence: Phil6334 Day #6
  • (3/3) Capitalizing on Chance (ii)
  • (3/4) Power, power everywhere–(it) may not be what you think! [illustration]
  • (3/8) Msc kvetch: You are fully dressed (even under you clothes)?
  • (3/8) Fallacy of Rejection and the Fallacy of Nouvelle Cuisine
  • (3/11) Phil6334 Day #7: Selection effects, the Higgs and 5 sigma, Power
  • (3/12) Get empowered to detect power howlers
  • (3/15) New SEV calculator (guest app: Durvasula)
  • (3/17) Stephen Senn: “Delta Force: To what extent is clinical relevance relevant?” (Guest Post)

    S. Senn

    S. Senn

  • (3/19) Power taboos: Statue of Liberty, Senn, Neyman, Carnap, Severity
  • (3/22) Fallacies of statistics & statistics journalism, and how to avoid them: Summary & Slides Day #8 (Phil 6334)
  • (3/25) The Unexpected Way Philosophy Majors Are Changing The World Of Business

    J. Byrd

    J. Byrd

  • (3/26) Phil6334:Misspecification Testing: Ordering From A Full Diagnostic Menu (part 1)
  • (3/28) Severe osteometric probing of skeletal remains: John Byrd
  • (3/29) Winner of the March 2014 palindrome contest (rejected post)
  • (3/30) Phil6334: March 26, philosophy of misspecification testing (Day #9 slides)

April 2014

  • (4/1) Skeptical and enthusiastic Bayesian priors for beliefs about insane asylum renovations at Dept of Homeland Security: I’m skeptical and unenthusiastic
  • (4/3) Self-referential blogpost (conditionally accepted*)

    I. J. Good

    I. J. Good

  • (4/5) Who is allowed to cheat? I.J. Good and that after dinner comedy hour. . ..

    Richard Gill

    Richard Gill

  • (4/6) Phil6334: Duhem’s Problem, highly probable vs highly probed; Day #9 Slides
  • (4/8) “Out Damned Pseudoscience: Non-significant results are the new ‘Significant’ results!” (update)
  • (4/12) “Murder or Coincidence?” Statistical Error in Court: Richard Gill (TEDx video)

    Neyman April 16, 1894 – August 5, 1981

    Neyman April 16, 1894 – August 5, 1981

  • (4/14) Phil6334: Notes on Bayesian Inference: Day #11 Slides
  • (4/16) A. Spanos: Jerzy Neyman and his Enduring Legacy
  • (4/17) Duality: Confidence intervals and the severity of tests
  • (4/19) Getting Credit (or blame) for Something You Didn’t Do (BP oil spill)
  • (4/21) Phil 6334: Foundations of statistics and its consequences: Day#12
  • (4/23) Phil 6334 Visitor: S. Stanley Young, “Statistics and Scientific Integrity”

    Stan Young

    Stan Young

  • (4/26) Reliability and Reproducibility: Fraudulent p-values through multiple testing (and other biases): S. Stanley Young (Phil 6334: Day #13)
  • (4/30) Able Stats Elba: 3 Palindrome nominees for April! (rejected post)

May 2014

  • (5/1) Putting the brakes on the breakthrough: An informal look at the
    img_0133

    breaking through

    argument for the Likelihood Principle

  • (5/3) You can only become coherent by ‘converting’ non-Bayesianly
  • (5/6) Winner of April Palindrome contest: Lori Wike
  • (5/7) A. Spanos: Talking back to the critics using error statistics (Phil6334)
    fraud buster

    fraud buster

    A. Spanos

    A. Spanos

  • (5/10) Who ya gonna call for statistical Fraudbusting? R.A. Fisher, P-values, and error statistics (again)
  • (5/15) Scientism and Statisticism: a conference* (i)
  • (5/17) Deconstructing Andrew Gelman: “A Bayesian wants everybody else to be a non-Bayesian.”
  • (5/20) The Science Wars & the Statistics Wars: More from the Scientism workshop

    Birnbaum

    Birnbaum

  • (5/25) Blog Table of Contents: March and April 2014
  • (5/27) Allan Birnbaum, Philosophical Error Statistician: 27 May 1923 – 1 July 1976
  • (5/31) What have we learned from the Anil Potti training and test data frameworks? Part 1 (draft 2)

    Potti training

    Potti training

June 2014

  • (6/5) Stephen Senn: Blood Simple? The complicated and controversial world of bioequivalence (guest post)
  • (6/9) “The medical press must become irrelevant to publication of clinical trials.”
  • (6/11) A. Spanos: “Recurring controversies about P values and confidence intervals revisited”
  • (6/14) “Statistical Science and Philosophy of Science: where should they meet?”

    Sir David Hendry

    Sir David Hendry

  • (6/21) Big Bayes Stories? (draft ii)
  • (6/25) Blog Contents: May 2014
  • (6/28) Sir David Hendry Gets Lifetime Achievement Award
  • (6/30) Some ironies in the ‘replication crisis’ in social psychology (4th and final installment)

July 2014

  • (7/7) Winner of June Palindrome Contest: Lori Wike
  • (7/8) Higgs Discovery 2 years on (1: “Is particle physics bad science?”)
  • (7/10) Higgs Discovery 2 years on (2: Higgs analysis and statistical flukes)
  • (7/14) “P-values overstate the evidence against the null”: legit or fallacious? (revised)

    R. Berger

    R. Berger

  • (7/23) Continued:”P-values overstate the evidence against the null”: legit or fallacious?
  • (7/26) S. Senn: “Responder despondency: myths of personalized medicine” (Guest Post)
  • (7/31) Roger Berger on Stephen Senn’s “Blood Simple” with a response by Senn (Guest Posts)

August 2014

  • (08/03) Blogging Boston JSM2014?
  • (08/05) Neyman, Power, and Severity
  • (08/06) What did Nate Silver just say? Blogging the JSM 2013

    N. Silver

    N. Silver

  • (08/09) Winner of July Palindrome: Manan Shah

    E.S. Pearson on the gate, D. Mayo sketch

    E.S. Pearson on the gate,
    D. Mayo sketch

  • (08/09) Blog Contents: June and July 2014
  • (08/11) Egon Pearson’s Heresy
  • (08/17) Are P Values Error Probabilities? Or, “It’s the methods, stupid!” (2nd install)
  • (08/23) Has Philosophical Superficiality Harmed Science?
  • (08/29) BREAKING THE LAW! (of likelihood): to keep their fit measures in line (A), (B 2nd)

September 2014

  • (9/30) Letter from George (Barnard)

    barnard-1979-picture

    G. Barnard

  • (9/27) Should a “Fictionfactory” peepshow be barred from a festival on “Truth and Reality”? Diederik Stapel says no (rejected post)
  • (9/23) G.A. Barnard: The Bayesian “catch-all” factor: probability vs likelihood
  • (9/21) Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”
  • (9/18) Uncle Sam wants YOU to help with scientific reproducibility!
  • (9/15) A crucial missing piece in the Pistorius trial? (2): my answer (Rejected Post)
  • (9/12) “The Supernal Powers Withhold Their Hands And Let Me Alone”: C.S. Peirce
  • (9/6) Statistical Science: The Likelihood Principle issue is out…!

    Table of Contents

    .

  • (9/4) All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy Contents-3 years on
  • (9/3) 3 in blog years: Sept 3 is 3rd anniversary of errorstatistics.com

October 2014

  • 10/01 Oy Faye! What are the odds of not conflating simple conditional probability and likelihood with Bayesian success stories?

    Faye Flam

    Faye Flam

  • 10/05 Diederik Stapel hired to teach “social philosophy” because students got tired of success stories… or something (rejected post)
  • 10/07 A (Jan 14, 2014) interview with Sir David Cox by “Statistics Views”
  • 10/10 BREAKING THE (Royall) LAW! (of likelihood) (C)
  • 10/14 Gelman recognizes his error-statistical (Bayesian) foundations
  • 10/18 PhilStat/Law: Nathan Schachtman: Acknowledging Multiple Comparisons in Statistical Analysis: Courts Can and Must

    IMG_1734

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  • 10/22 September 2014: Blog Contents
  • 10/25 3 YEARS AGO: MONTHLY MEMORY LANE
  • 10/26 To Quarantine or not to Quarantine?: Science & Policy in the time of Ebola
  • 10/31 Oxford Gaol: Statistical Bogeymen

November 2014

  • 11/01 Philosophy of Science Assoc. (PSA) symposium on Philosophy of Statistics in the Higgs Experiments “How Many Sigmas to Discovery?”
  • 11/09 “Statistical Flukes, the Higgs Discovery, and 5 Sigma” at the PSAAllan Franklinrobert cousins
  • 11/11 The Amazing Randi’s Million Dollar ChallengeMayo Kent Staley
  • 11/12 A biased report of the probability of a statistical fluke: Is it cheating?
  • 11/15 Why the Law of Likelihood is bankrupt–as an account of evidence

    Juliet Shafer, Erich Lehmann, D. Mayo

    Juliet Shafer, Erich Lehmann, D. Mayo

  • 11/18 Lucien Le Cam: “The Bayesians Hold the Magic”
  • 11/20 Erich Lehmann: Statistician and Poet
  • 11/22 Msc Kvetch: “You are a Medical Statistic”, or “How Medical Care Is Being Corrupted”
  • 11/25 How likelihoodists exaggerate evidence from statistical tests
  • 11/30 3 YEARS AGO: MONTHLY (Nov.) MEMORY LANE

December 2014

  • 12/02 My Rutgers Seminar: tomorrow, December 3, on philosophy of statistics
  • 12/04 “Probing with Severity: Beyond Bayesian Probabilism and Frequentist Performance” (Dec 3 Seminar slides)
  • 12/06 How power morcellators inadvertently spread uterine cancer
  • 12/11 Msc. Kvetch: What does it mean for a battle to be “lost by the media”?
  • 12/13 S. Stanley Young: Are there mortality co-benefits to the Clean Power Plan? It depends. (Guest Post)
  • 12/17 Announcing Kent Staley’s new book, An Introduction to the Philosophy of Science (CUP)

    Staley Intro to Phil of Science

    Staley book

  • 12/21 Derailment: Faking Science: A true story of academic fraud, by Diederik Stapel (translated into English)
  • 12/23 All I want for Chrismukkah is that critics & “reformers” quit howlers of
    images-5

    Chrismukkah

    testing (after 3 yrs of blogging)! So here’s Aris Spanos “Talking Back!”

  • 12/26 3 YEARS AGO: MONTHLY (Dec.) MEMORY LANEMidnight With Birnbaum
  • 12/29 To raise the power of a test is to lower (not raise) the “hurdle” for rejecting the null (Ziliac and McCloskey 3 years on)
  • 12/31 Midnight With Birnbaum (Happy New Year)

January 2015

  • 01/02 Blog Contents: Oct.- Dec. 2014
  • 01/03 No headache power (for Deirdre)

    670px-Relieve-a-Tension-Headache-Step-6Bullet1

    no-headache power

  • 01/04 Significance Levels are Made a Whipping Boy on Climate Change Evidence: Is .05 Too Strict? (Schachtman on Oreskes)
  • 01/07 “When Bayesian Inference Shatters” Owhadi, Scovel, and Sullivan (reblog)
  • 01/08 On the Brittleness of Bayesian Inference–An Update: Owhadi and Scovel (guest post)

    shattered-glass-portrait-1

    .

  • 01/12 “Only those samples which fit the model best in cross validation were included” (whistleblower) “I suspect that we likely disagree with what constitutes validation” (Potti and Nevins)
  • 01/16 Winners of the December 2014 Palindrome Contest: TWO!
  • 01/18 Power Analysis and Non-Replicability: If bad statistics is prevalent in your field, does it follow you can’t be guilty of scientific fraud?
  • 01/21 Some statistical dirty laundry

    .

    .

  • 01/24 What do these share in common: m&ms, limbo stick, ovulation, Dale Carnegie? Sat night potpourri
  • 01/26 Trial on Anil Potti’s (clinical) Trial Scandal Postponed Because Lawyers Get the Sniffles (updated)
  • 01/27 3 YEARS AGO: (JANUARY 2012) MEMORY LANE
  • 01/31 Saturday Night Brainstorming and Task Forces: (4th draft)

    NHST task force 3

    NHST task force 3

February 2015

  • 02/05 Stephen Senn: Is Pooling Fooling? (Guest Post)
  • 02/10 What’s wrong with taking (1 – β)/α, as a likelihood ratio comparing H0 and H1?
  • 02/13 Induction, Popper and Pseudoscience
  • 02/16 Continuing the discussion on truncation, Bayesian convergence and testing of priors
  • 02/16 R. A. Fisher: ‘Two New Properties of Mathematical Likelihood’: Just before breaking up (with N-P)
  • 02/17 R. A. Fisher: How an Outsider Revolutionized Statistics (Aris Spanos)

    Jeffreys 'one-liner

    Jeffreys ‘one-liner

  • 02/19 Stephen Senn: Fisher’s Alternative to the Alternative
  • 02/21 Sir Harold Jeffreys’ (tail area) one-liner: Saturday night comedy (b)
  • 02/25 3 YEARS AGO: (FEBRUARY 2012) MEMORY LANE

    .

    .

  • 02/27 Big Data is the New Phrenology?

March 2015

  • 03/01 “Probabilism as an Obstacle to Statistical Fraud-Busting”
  • 03/05 A puzzle about the latest test ban (or ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’)
  • 03/12 All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 3.5 years on
  • 03/16 Stephen Senn: The pathetic P-value (Guest Post)
  • 03/21 Objectivity in Statistics: “Arguments From Discretion and 3 Reactions”
  • 03/24 3 YEARS AGO (MARCH 2012): MEMORY LANE
  • 03/28 Your (very own) personalized genomic prediction varies depending on who else was around?

April 2015

  • 04/01 Are scientists really ready for ‘retraction offsets’ to advance ‘aggregate reproducibility’? (let alone ‘precautionary withdrawals’)
    morey

    .

    aps_2015_logo_cropped-1

  • 04/04 Joan Clarke, Turing, I.J. Good, and “that after-dinner comedy hour…”
  • 04/08 Heads I win, tails you lose? Meehl and many Popperians get this wrong (about severe tests)!
  • 04/13 Philosophy of Statistics Comes to the Big Apple! APS 2015 Annual Convention — NYC
  • 04/16 A. Spanos: Jerzy Neyman and his Enduring Legacy
  • 04/18 Neyman: Distinguishing tests of statistical hypotheses and tests of significance might have been a lapse of someone’s pengelman5D. Mayo headshot
  • 04/22 NEYMAN: “Note on an Article by Sir Ronald Fisher” (3 uses for power, Fisher’s fiducial argument)
  • 04/24 “Statistical Concepts in Their Relation to Reality” by E.S. Pearson
  • 04/27 3 YEARS AGO SENN FEB(APRIL 2012): MEMORY LANE
  • 04/30 96% Error in “Expert” Testimony Based on Probability of Hair Matches: It’s all Junk!

May 2015

  • 05/04 Spurious Correlations: Death by getting tangled in bedsheets and the consumption of cheese! (Aris Spanos)Slide1
  • 05/08 What really defies common sense (Msc kvetch on rejected posts)
  • 05/09 Stephen Senn: Double Jeopardy?: Judge Jeffreys Upholds the Law (sequel to the pathetic P-value)Mayo & Spanos spotlight
  • 05/16 “Error statistical modeling and inference: Where methodology meets ontology” A. Spanos and D. Mayo
  • 05/19 Workshop on Replication in the Sciences: Society for Philosophy and Psychology: (2nd part of double header)
  • 05/24 From our “Philosophy of Statistics” session: APS 2015 convention
  • 05/27 “Intentions” is the new code word for “error probabilities”: Allan Birnbaum’s Birthday
  • 05/30 3 YEARS AGO (MAY 2012): Saturday Night Memory Lane

June 2015

  • 06/04 What Would Replication Research Under an Error Statistical Philosophy Be?
  • 06/09 “Fraudulent until proved innocent: Is this really the new “Bayesian Forensics”? (rejected post)images-16
  • 6/11 Evidence can only strengthen a prior belief in low data veracity, N. Liberman & M. Denzler: “Response”
  • 06/14  Some statistical dirty laundry: The Tilberg (Stapel) Report on “Flawed Science”
  • 06/18  Can You change Your Bayesian prior? (ii)
  • 06/25  3 YEARS AGO (JUNE 2012): MEMORY LANE
  • 06/30 Stapel’s Fix for Science? Admit the story you want to tell and how you “fixed” the statistics to support it!

July 2015Larry Laudan

  • 07/03 Larry Laudan: “When the ‘Not-Guilty’ Falsely Pass for Innocent”, the Frequency of False Acquittals (guest post)
  • 07/09  Winner of the June Palindrome contest: Lori Wike
  • 07/11 Higgs discovery three years on (Higgs analysis and statistical flukes)
  • 07/14  Spot the power howler: α = ß?
  • 07/17  “Statistical Significance” According to the U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services (ii)S. Senn
  • 07/22 3 YEARS AGO (JULY 2012): MEMORY LANE
  • 07/24 Stephen Senn: Randomization, ratios and rationality: rescuing the randomized clinical trial from its critics
  • 07/29  Telling What’s True About Power, if practicing within the error-statistical tribe

August 2015

  • 08/05 Neyman: Distinguishing tests of statistical hypotheses and tests of significance might have been a lapse of someone’s pen
  • 08/08  Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”picture-072-1-1
  • 08/11 A. Spanos: Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics
  • 08/14 Performance or Probativeness? E.S. Pearson’s Statistical Philosophy
  • 08/15  Severity in a Likelihood Text by Charles Rohde
  • 08/19 Statistics, the Spooky Science
  • 08/20 How to avoid making mountains out of molehills, using power/severity
  • 08/24 3 YEARS AGO (AUGUST 2012): MEMORY LANE
  • 08/31 The Paradox of Replication, and the vindication of the P-value (but she can go deeper) 9/2/15 update (ii)images

September 2015

  • 09/05 All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 4 years on
  • 09/11 Peircean Induction and the Error-Correcting Thesis (Part I)

    C.S. Peirce:10 Sept,1839- 19 April,1914

    C.S. Peirce:10 Sept,1839-
    19 April,1914

  • 09/12 (Part 2) Peircean Induction and the Error-Correcting Thesis
  • 09/14 (Part 3) Peircean Induction and the Error-Correcting Thesis
  • 09/16 Popper on pseudoscience: a comment on Pigliucci (i), (ii) 9/18, (iii) 9/20
  • 09/22 Statistical rivulets: Who wrote this?
  • 09/23 George Barnard: 100th birthday: “We need more complexity” (and coherence) in statistical educationbarnard-1979-picture
  • 09/26 G.A. Barnard: The “catch-all” factor: probability vs likelihood
  • 09/28 3 YEARS AGO (SEPTEMBER 2012): MEMORY LANE
  • 09/30 Oy Faye! What are the odds of not conflating simple conditional probability and likelihood with Bayesian success stories?

October 2015cropped-imgp587612

  • 10/04 Will the Real Junk Science Please Stand Up?
  • 10/07 In defense of statistical recipes, but with enriched ingredients (scientist sees squirrel)
  • 10/10 P-value madness: A puzzle about the latest test ban (or ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’)
  • 10/14 “Frequentist Accuracy of Bayesian Estimates” (Efron Webinar announcement)following-leader-off-cliff
  • 10/18 Statistical “reforms” without philosophy are blind (v update)
  • 10/24 3 YEARS AGO (OCTOBER 2012): MEMORY LANE
  • 10/31 WHIPPING BOYS AND WITCH HUNTERS (ii)

November 201412/20SMWorkPhoto_IMG_2432

  • 11/05 S. McKinney: On Efron’s “Frequentist Accuracy of Bayesian Estimates” (Guest Post)
  • 11/09 Findings of the Office of Research Misconduct on the Duke U (Potti/Nevins) cancer trial fraud: No one is punished but the patients
  • 11/13 “What does it say about our national commitment to research integrity?”
  • 11/20 Erich Lehmann: Neyman-Pearson & Fisher on P-values
  • 11/25 3 YEARS AGO (NOVEMBER 2012): MEMORY LANE
  • 11/28 Return to the Comedy Hour: P-values vs posterior probabilities (1)

December 2015

  • 12/05 Beware of questionable front page articles warning you to beware of questionable front page articles (2)SENN FEB
  • 12/12 Stephen Senn: The pathetic P-value (Guest Post) [3]
  • 12/17 Gelman on ‘Gathering of philosophers and physicists unaware of modern reconciliation of Bayes and Popper’gelman5
  • 12/20 Stephen Senn: Double Jeopardy?: Judge Jeffreys Upholds the Law (sequel to the pathetic P-value)[4]
  • 12/26 3 YEARS AGO (DECEMBER 2012): MEMORY LANE
  • 12/31 Midnight With Birnbaum (Happy New Year)

January 2016

  • 01/02 Sir Harold Jeffreys’ (tail area) one-liner: Sat night comedy [draft ii]
  • 01/08 Preregistration Challenge: My email exchange
  • 01/10 Winner of December Palindrome: Mike JacovidesowhadiClintpicTimSullivan
  • 01/11 “On the Brittleness of Bayesian Inference,” Owhadi, Scovel, and Sullivan (PUBLISHED)
  • 01/17 “P-values overstate the evidence against the null”: legit or fallacious?
  • 01/19 High error rates in discussions of error rates (1/21/16 update)
  • 01/24 Hocus pocus! Adopt a magician’s stance, if you want to reveal statistical sleights of hand
  • 01/29 3 YEARS AGO (JANUARY 2013): MEMORY LANE

February 2016

  • 02/03 Philosophy-laden meta-statistics: Is “technical activism” free of statistical philosophy? (ii)images
  • 02/12 Rubbing off, uncertainty, confidence, and Nate Silver
  • 02/17 Can’t Take the Fiducial Out of Fisher (if you want to understand the N-P performance philosophy) [i]RA_Fisher,_repairing_mousetraps
  • 02/20 Deconstructing the Fisher-Neyman conflict wearing fiducial glasses (continued)
  • 02/27 3 YEARS AGO (FEBRUARY 2013): MEMORY LANE
  • 02/29 Statistical Challenges in Assessing and Fostering the Reproducibility of Scientific Results

March 2016

  • 03/04 Repligate Returns (or, the non-significance of non-significant results, are the new significant results)imgres-6
  • 03/07 Don’t throw out the error control baby with the bad statistics bathwater
  • 03/12: “A small p-value indicates it’s improbable that the results 3are due to chance alone” –fallacious or not? (more on the ASA p-value doc)
  • 03/19: Your chance to continue the “due to chance” discussion in roomier quarters

    Aris Spanos

    Aris Spanos

  • 03/22: All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 4.5 years on
  • 03/26: A. Spanos: Talking back to the critics using error statistics

April 2016

  • 04/01: Er, about those “other statistical approaches”: Hold off until a balanced critique is in?
  • 04/06: I’m speaking at Univ of Minnesota on Friday

    neyman younger

    Jerzy Neyman

  • 04/09: Winner of March 2016 Palindrome: Manan Shah
  • 04/11: When the rejection ratio (1 – β)/α turns evidence on its head, for those practicing in an error-statistical tribe (ii)
  • 04/16: Jerzy Neyman and “Les Miserables Citations” (statistical theater in honor of his birthday)
  • 04/23: 3 YEARS AGO (MARCH & APRIL 2013): MEMORY LANE
  • 04/30: Yes, these were not (entirely) real–my five April pranks

May 2016

  • 05/02: Philosophy & Physical Computing Graduate Workshop at VT
  • 05/04: My Popper Talk at LSE: The Statistical Replication Crisis: Paradoxes and ScapegoatsPopper talk May 10 location
  • 05/09: Some bloglinks for my LSE talk tomorrow: “The Statistical Replication Crisis: Paradoxes and Scapegoats”
  • 05/10: My Slides: “The Statistical Replication Crisis: Paradoxes and Scapegoats”Slide1
  • 05/12: Excerpts from S. Senn’s Letter on “Replication, p-values and Evidence”
  • 05/14: Fallacies of Rejection, Nouvelle Cuisine, and assorted New Monsters
  • 05/22: Frequentstein: What’s wrong with (1 – β)/α as a measure of evidence against the null? (ii)
  • 05/27: Allan Birnbaum: Foundations of Probability and Statistics (27 May 1923 – 1 July 1976)
  • 05/30: 3 YEARS AGO (MAY 2013): MEMORY LANE

June 2016

  • 06/02: “A sense of security regarding the future of statistical science…” Anon review of Error and Inferenceimages-20
  • 06/05: Winner of May 2016 Palindrome Contest: Curtis Williams
  • 06/08: “So you banned p-values, how’s that working out for you?” D. Lakens exposes the consequences of a puzzling “ban” on statistical inference
  • 06/15: “Using PhilStat to Make Progress in the Replication Crisis in Psych” at Society for PhilSci in Practice (SPSP)
  • 06/19: Mayo & Parker “Using PhilStat to Make Progress in the Replication Crisis in Psych” SPSP Slides Screen Shot 2016-06-15 at 1.19.23 PM
  • 06/22: Some statistical dirty laundry: have the stains become permanent?
  • 06/25: What do these share in common: m&ms, limbo stick, ovulation, Dale Carnegie? Are we lowering the bar?
  • 06/29: Richard Gill: “Integrity or fraud… or just questionable research practices?” (Is Gill too easy on them?)

    Allan Birnbaum

    Allan Birnbaum

July 2016

  • 07/01: A. Birnbaum: Statistical Methods in Scientific Inference (May 27, 1923 – July 1, 1976)
  • 07/06: 3 YEARS AGO (JUNE 2013): MEMORY LANE

    Sir Karl Popper

    Sir Karl Popper

  • 07/11: Philosophy and History of Science Announcements
  • 07/21: “Nonsignificance Plus High Power Does Not Imply Support for the Null Over the Alternative.”
  • 07/28: For Popper’s Birthday: A little Popper self-test & reading from Conjectures and Refutations
  • 07/30: 3 YEARS AGO (JULY 2013): MEMORY LANE

    Stephen Senn

    Stephen Senn

August 2016

  • 08/02: S. Senn: “Painful dichotomies” (Guest Post)
  • 08/09: If you think it’s a scandal to be without statistical falsification, you will need statistical Ju
  • 08/16: Performance of Probativeness? E.S. Pearson’s Statistical Philosophy
  • (08/18) History of statistics sleuths out there? “Ideas came into my head as I sat on a gate overlooking an experimental blackcurrant plot”–No wait, it was apples, probably

    Egon Pearson on a Gate (by D. Mayo)

    Egon Pearson on a Gate (by D. Mayo)

  • (08/21) Larry Laudan: “‘Not Guilty’: The Misleading Verdict” (Guest Post)

    Larry Laudan

    Larry Laudan

  • (08/28) TragiComedy hour: P-values vs posterior probabilities vs diagnostic error rates

 

 

[i]Table of Contents (compiled by N. Jinn & J. Miller)*

*I thank Jean Miller for her assiduous work on the blog. I’m very grateful to guest posters in the past year: Laudan, Spanos, Senn, and to all contributors and readers for helping “frequentists in exile” to feel (and truly become) less exiled–wherever they may be!

Categories: blog contents, Metablog, Statistics | 11 Comments

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11 thoughts on “All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 5 years on

  1. Wow … Five years! Happy Cyber-Birthday! I’m looking forward to the next five years; substantively, I have learned a lot through your thoughtful and engaging blog posts. (One suggestion regarding style: it can be a challenge to follow some of the posts because of all the “clutter” and different fonts and sizes. A much simpler presentation and style would be much appreciated.)

    • Enrique: I’m glad you’ve managed to learn a lot despite the alleged “clutter” of different sized fonts. If you blog on WordPress you’d know it largely has a mind of its own. It’s backbreaking, at times, to get symbols in correctly, and then the spacing and font sizing of items around it can be altered. The people at Elba do the formatting and try to learn the HTML language to get what’s wanted. Next time you find you’re failing to comprehend because of font sizes, just let me know.
      I just remembered, by the way, that I owe you a grade on the essay part of your Popper test which contains a subjectivistic construal that Popper rejects.

    • Hi, so many different sources are often used, even within one post–everything but the kitchen sink, source wise–that sometimes bits of stray code sneak in to mess up the fonts. Hopefully you’ve noticed the huge improvements over the past year or two as we’ve learned to hunt down and destroy those html harbingers of untidiness. 🙂
      Kind regards, the Elbanians (who are currently doing shots of Elbar Grease)

  2. Even though I seldom have time to read your blog thoroughly, I consider it a jewel, a breath of fresh air in this era in which academia consists largely of a bunch of re’sume’ builders. I’ve recommended your blog to many, many people. Please continue! Frequentists of the world, unite!

    Thanks for the list of “Mayo’s Greatest Hits.” I like the one about Erich Lehmann in particular. I was pleasantly surprised by his review of your book, which showed that he really had thought of the epistemological issues, unlike most math stat people.

    • Norm: Thanks so much! It’s a breath of fresh air to get a positive acknowledgment, and it means even more coming from you.

      I’m not sure if you mean the blogpost discussing how Lehmann wrote to me having come across EGEK (Mayo 1996) by accident (it being the only one on a table being set up at a statistics meeting). Aside from his great review, I credit Lehmann for being one of the letter writers resulting in my winning the 1998 Lakatos Prize in philosophy of science for that book (revealed to me by him). Because of Erich’s interest in statistical philosophy, I put together a session on that topic for a Lehmann conference in 2004.I invited David Freedman and Sir David Cox to take part, which they did.

  3. Many-many congratulations to the author. 🙂

    On 3 September 2016 at 09:45, Error Statistics Philosophy wrote:

    > Mayo posted: ” Error Statistics Philosophy: Blog Contents (5 years) [i] > By: D. G. Mayo Dear Reader: It’s hard to believe I’ve been blogging for > five years (since Sept. 3, 2011)! A big celebration is taking place at the > Elbar Room this evening. If you’re in the” >

  4. Happy blog birthday 🙂 Hope this one gets through!

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